Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Re Queensland conservative voting patterns
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I know there has been some writing done in the past on Qland’s voting habits and some have attributed it to the fact that about 2/3 of it’s population lives outside the Greater Brisbane area…a large number in many small country towns all conservative places with a local political class of conservative bent also
This seems to me a pretty strong reason for these trends
By contrast in Victoria about 85% live in Melbourne,and S.A is similar
Big cities are more like to be have some radical political trends,and in a way Victoria is a kind of city -state,with a relatively small rural population…but not so QLand
by deblonay on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:35 pm
Abbott has made three big mistakes which has resulted in a weakening of his polling position:
1. Voters are not stupid enough to disapprove of the governments border protection legislation in order to stop the boats.
2. Voters understand the need and support pokies reform in order to curb problem gambling.
3. Voters are in favour of mining companies paying a little more from their large profits for royalties that belong to the Australian people.
The Monkey has been given enough NO’s to hang himself!
by Centre on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:39 pm
@William/349,
So what happens if WA runs out of things to mine?
by zoidlord on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Centre
Possible also – most people dont smoke…
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:41 pm
re Stephen Koukoulas
_______________
In his article he makes the point that an independent WA would have to foot the price of the defence of it’s huge coastline…a thing we in the east do for them
It should be remember too that in earlier times the richer eastern states,especially Victoria hugely subsidized Qland and WA when they had no great mining boom and had a very sparse sparse population. pre-WW2..let alone the cost of defence
by deblonay on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Smaug – thanks very much for that local colour from Longman!
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:42 pm
He probably believes it himself! Maybe its changing now, but the narrative for months (after the initial ‘Gillard is no good at foreign policy’) is that any bit of diplomacy/conference is merely a ‘brief respite’ from the hammering Labor is getting because they can’t govern, or something.
by rishane on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:42 pm
It will be Nauru writ large.
by Scarpat on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Wow, OPT, I normally respect your comments, but that spray is right out of the most wingnut side of anything I’ve heard from separatist WA.
Mining booms come and go. WA and Queensland have benefited from financial flows the other way in the past, and may well need to do so in the future – framing everything in the here and now is just as narrowsighted and selfish as you have just proclaimed all the rest of us are.
by Jackol on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:44 pm
I have Joe down more as a Rockford Basket Press kind of guy actually, but anyway.
I would guess Grand Mal has lost 10kg in weight
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:44 pm
centre
the pokies is what got him
tim costello has hung the fibs out to dry
by gusface on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:45 pm
BK,
Gilbert makes my skin crawl with his cleansing.
It’s a sign of weakness, no dignity and self humiliation!
by Centre on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:45 pm
lao
a wit of mine said mal had got the monkey off his back- hence his loss in weight
by gusface on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Facial it’s been ages since we have been sparing.
Hope you been well.
by Centre on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:49 pm
Does anyone else find it odd that essential grouped ‘small businesses and the unemployed’ together as a single group?
by The Magical Liopleurodon on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:49 pm
OzPol Tragic
Pre the current mining boom W.A. (don’t know about Qld) was very much a boom and bust state and needed a hand from t’othersiders a number of times. Western Australian governments of whatever color can’t take credit for having gigatons of iron ore and gas on hand just when the Chinese economy took off.
When the first whispers of the GFC were heard it was quite a sight to see how fast the “true blue” miners shed workers in W.A. in anticipation of the GFC fall out. The town of Ravensthorpe can attest to the damage. People know that times are good in the mining sector but they also learnt in W.A. how fast you can go from $150,000 pa to $0 with no prospects .No matter how good you are at your job. So you can see in W.A.’s case why people are hypersensitive about anything they are told may damage the mining sector here. Especially as so many of the people that were hit and would be hit were what you would call traditional Labor voters.
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:50 pm
centre
ditto to u
by gusface on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:51 pm
Years ago, when commodity prices were low and Canberra subsidised all the non NSW/VIC states in terms of Commonwealth expenditure in each State vs tax revenue, there was little talk of succession or how hard done by WA was. Swings and roundabouts, that’s why we have a federation.
by Leroy on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:52 pm
gusface
talcum has the numbers?
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Immediately after Gillard’s announcement of the APC commitment to energy efficiency improvement the annoying Ashley Gillan feeds the IPA shill John Roscam with the chance to pooh pooh it.
by BK on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:57 pm
The Magical Liopleurodon@364
The Coalition would claim that under Labor these will soon be the same anyway!
by Oscar on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:57 pm
vic
there is something about malcolm
peeps forget he lost by one and he had one supporter in hospital
i think he is crouching tigerr, hidden dragon
by gusface on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:58 pm
That should read small businesses and the self employed.
by William Bowe on Nov 14, 2011 at 1:59 pm
gusface
I had been expecting Talcum to destabilise Abbott months ago, but nothing happened. Now would be a good time to rock the coaliton boat.
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:01 pm
The name “Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon” is a literal translation of the Chinese proverb “卧虎藏龙” which refers to the mysteries that lie below the surface of an otherwise normal-looking individual.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crouching_Tiger,_Hidden_Dragon
by gusface on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:01 pm
The IPA on the ABC? Well, I never …
by Son of foro on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Nice.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/apec-leaders-to-cut-taxes-on-green-goods-20111114-1nevb.html
by rishane on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:04 pm
gus
Not sure to many would accuse of Grand Mal of hiding his light under a bushel
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:06 pm
Obi’s on.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:07 pm
gusface
Considering how way above “normal” a tiger is I’d have thought “Crouching moggy hidden dragon” would have been better.
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:08 pm
gusface
Are you implying that Talcum is more of a risk to progress in this country, than the Rabbott?
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:08 pm
Speculation on Political trends in 2012 difficult
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Such speculation is pretty pointless as events have shown
.Early this year there was a trend on this site for many to see the Fed. Govt picking up once the Senate was changed.in July..and an end to it’s troubles
Yesterday some here,notably GG, speculated on an early election but seems the height of folly…or is it Hubris !.
..in fact the second half of 2011 saw the Govt in deeper trouble.Control of the Senate was no great help
Likewise hoping that the passing of the carbon tax and it’s implementation will make for a calmer time in 2012 might be unwise.giving that the recession in Europe may turn into a full-on depression of 1930ies dimensions.
Even in the short-term the Middle East may throw up another major oil crisis.
Who at the start of 2011 forsaw the “Arab Spring” ?
This morning press carries reports that,amazingly,Netanyahu and the Israeli Govt. won’t give Obama any guarantee that he won’t attack Iran
One would think that Obama could soon win that argument given the massive aid the Israelis get from the USA,but Netanyahu has a tight grip on Congress where the Lobby is very powerful…more than Obama !!!…who the Israelis scorn and defy….
If an attack takes place Iran says it will close the Persian Gulf within minutes at the narrow Straits of Hormuz and oil prices will rise…perhaps triple… with days
That will knock the world economy sideways,though Israel won’t take that into account
…but how that effects Australia. remains to be seen…..as well as oil price rises…we have substantial markets for many products in the various Gulf states and war in the Gulf would end these ,,,finito…for the duration
I have noticed shops in Dubai airport selling Australian cheeses,jams, meat ,and other items. All these would be closed out.
Shipping companies lose their insurance coverage if operating in a war zone ,so all such would avoid the area
So that market would be lost to us. with serious effects here.
by deblonay on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:12 pm
poroti
malcolm seems so many contradictions
i suggest he is raring to take back the leadership, just waiting the right moment
his increased and eclectic twittering suggest a mobilisation
by gusface on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Lacoon and others
If Joe is a bit of beach goer, he might want to wait for summer, try his speedos, see if they still fit, then make his decision.
by gigi on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Israel defies Obama request re Iran_
Re effect on Aust. of a Gulf
______________________
From a US source this article appeared in the Fairfax journals today
…not I think in Murdoch’s empire. He never publishes material unfavourable to Isreal in my opinion .
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/11/12/israel-allegedly-refuses-to-disclose-its-plans-to-u-s-regarding-iran/
by deblonay on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:19 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
#Essential PreferredPM: Gillard 41% (+5), Abbott 36% (-5) from Sept – No wonder Abbott cut & run to UK, sulk & hasnt been seen since #auspol
1 minute ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:22 pm
gigi – that is the worst mental image that has been conjured here for a very, very long time
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Spur 212. Great figures,
The younger generation have woke up, and many more turn 18 In the 2 years
And i bet the pm is ahead. Here I get the feeling tasmania is not polled by neilson
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Lacoon
You are just so funny!!!!!!!!!!
by gigi on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:26 pm
gusface
Truffles has to wait until his party opponents decide that Tony Abbott is a lost cause. Till then he will just keep sending gentle reminders that he is not Tony Abbott and is a candidate ready to be drafted should the Abbott express derail.
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:30 pm
MY Say 387
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The latest Neilson poll shows that in the 18-25 cohort,the Greens are polling 27%,to a Labor vote in the upper 30ies
This in a once rock-solid Labor cohort…,where more than 1/4 are now for the Greens
The Greens now do best by a long margin among the young voters,who have turned away from the ALP in droves
by deblonay on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Gary – you made my day. I can’t stop laughing. When did truth ever get in the way of beating up a story to get papers sold.
by BH on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:36 pm
my say @ 387
The Nielsen polling is a national representative sample of those aged 18, and over, so Tasmania would be included, but only 2.4% (according to ABS) of the national total so that’s only 28 surveys in the Apple Isle.
by The Big Ship on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Is there a link to the Katherine Murphy quote, or was it something she said on TV/radio?
by confessions on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Obi is getting respect from the journos. Everyone given the nod starts with “Thank you, Mister President.”
Our lot should learn manners.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:40 pm
deblonay,
the question is, can the Greens keep those numbers as that group moves through. I doubt it personally.
by BigBob on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:40 pm
TBS
well those 28 are half the popN of hobart
*runs before my say explodes*
by gusface on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:41 pm
me @ 392
That should be 34 surveys in Tasmania, not 28 …
by The Big Ship on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Deblaney
18/24 year olds
Labor 57 per ent. Primary vote 35 percent
Read. 272
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Katharine Murphy -
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/beware-consequences-of–draconian-media-regulation-20111113-1ndmo.html
by Gary on Nov 14, 2011 at 2:49 pm