Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Someone asked what state I live in.
Physically – QLD.
Emotionally – never surprised by the ability of people to only read what they want to read and ignore the rest.
by DavidWH on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Thanks, GD.
Actually, I have been horrendously busy lately with house renovations, so I have lately been a lurker, rather than a contributor.
A brief visit at lunch time or at dinner is the most you can expect from me at the moment.
Maybe someone else can take up the morning clarion call on my behalf
by Danny Lewis on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Apparently, Sloppy & Co. are feverishly, ‘LOL’ working their butts off to find savings.
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:47 pm
Aguirre
agree. If I were young and trendy and not at all interested in politics (which I wasn’t in my salad days) and someone asked me who I was voting for, I’d say “Green”.
In fact, it would surprise me if most young people didn’t say “Green’ as a sort of default.
They’re sort of the Clayton’s option. Not what your parents voted for, so therefore a ‘young’ party and one which portrays itself as not being really about politics at all.
by zoomster on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:49 pm
BTW, “LOL” also means “Little Old Ladies”, from my bridge playing days. Mind you, they were fierce competitors.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Dee: someone should suggest they try SELLING their butts to raise the cash.
{Not sure whether to insert a winky smiley face, a tongue poking out one or a person vomiting one.}
by Danny Lewis on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:50 pm
Sloppy and Co finding savings? This morning they were whining about the government doing exactly that. Savings are only savings when they are made by the Coalition, if Labor makes savings they are simply savage spending cuts. According to Whyney Pyney the government will be announcing a great big new tax in its mini budget. Guess who’s going to have egg all over his face when that doesn’t happen.
by leone on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:50 pm
Kerrist, how embarrassing. Imagine Obama going home and telling all and sundry how he encountered the Missing Link down under!
by Cuppa on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:51 pm
DavidWH
I asked David because your statement on high incomes, middle class welfare etc were an exact reflection of my brothers.
So you live in QLD.
North, South, West, Central?
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Very good description especially with that strange walk of his
But I still would like to know, has he left the UK, OR is he still trying to get to See The Queen to ask her on behalf of the Convoy to sack Julia?
by mari on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Where is the outrage & international protest now that Brazil Army & Police invaded & occupied an independent country called Favela. Amazing.
9 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Danny
They would be hard pressed to buy a donut with the proceeds.
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Aguirre & Deblonay
Nielsen figs today show 18-24yos prefer Labor over Greens over Coalition.
by jenauthor on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Okaaaaaaaay. There is a worse mental image than JoHo in red budgie smugglers…
Danny Lewis – back to the home renos
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:55 pm
I have just checked Tony Abbott’s own web site and even there the last item of “news” was a doorstop interview last Friday. Interesting that in all the “doorstop interview” transcripts there is no mention of who is asked the question or from what organisatioon they are from.
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:55 pm
All Parties can make a Mark Latham type mistake, and just like Labor we will win Government at the next election with our new leader.
by rummel on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:56 pm
poroti
Maybe Peta asks the questions…
by lizzie on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:57 pm
Zoomster are you around, I am still waiting on an answer re the Twitter name you reckoned you were- come on “you are pulling my leg “arn’t you?
by mari on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:57 pm
Dee: I don’t know about that.
There seem to be plenty of rich chubby chasers and bear lovers who would give their right arms for a bit of Sloppy Joe or Apeman action.
{that one really does deserve a vomiting smiley}
by Danny Lewis on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:57 pm
Finns,
Isn’t it a suburb like Mosman?
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:59 pm
Okay, (and yes, Laocoon!) I am back to the renos now.
Have a fun rest of the evening and be good little Bludgers!
by Danny Lewis on Nov 14, 2011 at 6:59 pm
Laocoon
Homer Simpson shows what a JoHo in red speedos looks like. Warning graphic images at 35 second mark.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuwCXo9qcpw
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Dee SE QLD just a little north of Brisbane.
My point wasn’t about whether middle-income earners should receive welfare benefits although if the government has an excess of revenue after meeting all their committments I don’t see any reason why the excess can’t be passed back to those who paid the tax in the first place providing reasonable social programs are funded first. My point was that middle-income Australians contribute more in taxes than any other group in the country and anything given back to them is hardly a handout but is a return of contribution.
by DavidWH on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:02 pm
Start of ABC TV news: Julia with Dmitri.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:02 pm
I am getting a little concerned over the RW definitions of democracy and their understanding of election results.
Graeme Morris has cemented my concerns into a great lump of concrete weighing me down.
Just think. We decide to have a republic, and the “direct election” people get their way.
After the vote, a popular figure (or a billionaire) is chosen.
Some dolt (aka pollster) asks who is more popular, the elected PM of the day, or the President.
The President gets more votes. Graeme Morris and his cohorts demand that the PM steps down.
by lizzie on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:02 pm
Apologies if already posted. Robery Gottliebsen in the Business Spectator
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Abbott-prime-minister-Gillard-economy-confidence-pd20111114-NKSBA?opendocument&src=rss
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:05 pm
mari
I don’t understand why you think that.
‘The Finnegans’ for example, is a much longer name than mine.
by zoomster on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:05 pm
lizzie that’s why I support our current structure. Now how do we replace the queen without changing the guts of what we have?
by DavidWH on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:07 pm
DavidWH
smiley face in agreement.
by lizzie on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:08 pm
lizzie
If I was Tony I’d be darn sure I’d drop in the names of the leading newspapers (if there) that were asking me questions.
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:08 pm
DavidWH
So you are up Caboolture, Glasshouse way?
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:09 pm
where is Abbott? probably embedded somewhere with the troops and a cameraman getting plenty of shots of Action Man – ala Putin. Think flouro jacket with an edge.
I suspect the plan is to get back with this stuff, and somehow usurp the Obama/Gillard show by hawking this Action Man stuff around to the diminishing, but still willing hacks. He will need to include some headline grabbing stunt, like:
- I have a message from Mullah Omar direct to POTUS
- I’m reversing bipartisan policy and calling for and immediate withdrawl of troops
- I’ve had a detailed breifing from a lance Corporal who reckons we need to nuke Pakistan, followed by a maniacal laugh
but then again, he might just slink back after a couple of days duty free shopping in Dubai
by sprocket_ on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:09 pm
A bit of goofiness at APEC:
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/11/apec-family-photo-taken-without-cononut-bras/
by rishane on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:11 pm
Wow, 57-43 support to Labor among 18-24 year olds? The Coalition should be very worried about the long-term implications of that collapse in support.
We in that age group are probably going to be around for another 50 years, and the political views we get in our youth are going to shape the way we vote for the rest of our lives.
In 2050 and beyond, when us young people of today are lamenting about how in our time we drove in non-hovering cars and generally spoke with our mouths rather than our fingers, we’ll never forget the Coalition’s mad destructive tea party tactics of the early 2010′s in the same way that a large portion of Menzies’ youth never seem to have forgotten the old red scare with Labor and the Communists in the 1950′s and 60′s.
by Von Kirsdarke on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:11 pm
Evening all!
Another improving poll for ALP. So what is it now?
Newspoll 45-55
Nielsen 45-55
Essential 46-54
Morgan Phone 48.5-51.5
…so we just need the Galaxy to have the full set. Looking like an 8 point gap now.
by Mod Lib on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:12 pm
I am painting a bathroom, including scraping off old peeled paint (and filling the holes), killing mould, removing the dunny cistern (tried the sink, but no luck), undercoating (with mould killer in it), and finally two coats each of wall/ceiling and trim paint.
All has to be ready by Saturday, when HI’s friends (and some of my own) turn up for her 60th. curry night, plonk-a-rama and general debauch (just kidding)..
The colors I have chosen were for me to decide alone, She Who Must Be Obeyed generously granted. But as soon as I revealed my choice, HI started kibbitzing…
Bludgers will be proud of me to hear I stood my ground. Whether I survive the week is another matter.
P.S. How do you get paint out of your hair (water based)?
This is a hell I’ve visited upon myself, but may I say, “STELLAAAAAA!”
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:13 pm
Poroti
That’s amazing!
1,163,097 views of the Homer’s Thong Song??
Never did get into The Simpsons.
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:15 pm
Evening all!
OOPS…make that:
Another improving poll for ALP. So what is it now?
Newspoll 47-53
Nielsen 45-55
Essential 46-54
Morgan Phone 48.5-51.5
…so we just need the Galaxy to have the full set. Looking like an 8 point gap now.
by Mod Lib on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:15 pm
poroti – awesome! Especially 0.35
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:16 pm
rishane,
You need to check the vid clip. ABC news (Oz) showed it.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:16 pm
Ok Zoomster you follow me @randlight and I will know you arn’t speaking with a “forked tongue” and then I will follow you
by mari on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:18 pm
BB
It tends to break down when you wash your hair. Roll the worst bits between your fingers & run a comb through it whilst under the shower.
Worked for me!
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Jenauthor:
I’m not particularly surprised by that. I’m only going by memory here, but the ALP always seemed to have a massive lead amongst younger voters. I still think that support has fragmented though. Happy to be proven wrong there; I’d like to see how the 18-24 vote has gone over the past decade or two.
My memory of being in that demographic is of political indifference, apart from one massive argument I had with my girlfriend of the time over compulsory voting. I’ve always been for it. Apart from that, I had no idea why I was voting for anybody. I clocked in to politics in my late twenties. (I also knew a lot of stodgy-before-their-time types, and I partly defined my outlook in contrast to them.)
Judging by whatever I hear of commentary by that age group (on radio, mostly), I think their biggest concern is “freedom”, whatever that might mean. They want the right to be heard, to be taken seriously, and they’re very keen on fighting for the rights of others. Green issues follow that. And then some general complaint that politics isn’t “relevant”. Most of them don’t make the connection between the way they see our politicians behave and the running of the country.
by Aguirre on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Me neither. From memory the ALP support is always at that ballpark level (and balances out the reverse finding for the post retirement age bracket for the Coalition).
by Mod Lib on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:20 pm
Grahame Morris is just a loud-mouthed sleazy hypocrite!
He considers himself an advisor, what a joke! Well how about some policies Grahame, 3 word slogans won’t cut it in 2013.
Policies that can actually be costed LOL.
Morris should face it, Abbott is a sham!
by Centre on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:20 pm
And so it begins!
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:21 pm
Anyone got the latest “beautiful set of numbers” that do the rounds on PB? Trying to stick it up a Lib mate.
by gloryconsequence on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:24 pm
I hope that is right but was the over 55 who are so vehemently against the ALP now(accordingl to the Polls) always conservative I wonder? But good on you
by mari on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:25 pm
How about polling 16-17 year olds? They’ll be voting at the next election.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:26 pm
Happy to oblige glory.
Last 40 years ALP vs. Coalition governments
1. Unemployment rate 6.8% vs. 6.3%
2. Inflation rate: 6.5% vs. 5.5%
3. Interest rates: 4.4% vs. 2.8%
4. Real non-farm wage growth: 0.8% vs. 1.7%
5. Economic growth: 3.0% vs. 3.2%
6. Budget surpluses as%GDP: -1.6% vs, +0.2%
by Mod Lib on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:28 pm