Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
My Say and all of you under 58 I do not want to shock the horses but I think Uni students have it much much worse these days than in the 1950s/60s.
Almost ALL full time students went to University on either commonwealth scholarships, teachers college scholarships or the really bright or lucky on special work schemes.
Rather than being in debt a kid from a poor home could go to uni (or teachers college) on a generous scholarship. No hex debt. Kids who did well in Uni entrance exams got free places. Only those kids who did not do as well in exams had to pay their way – much like the private places at Unis now. It was of course hard for the kids who did not get scholarships but they were scarce.
And no – I do not think we are better off because the kids have to work full time to pay their way now days and that means they have no time for unio activities (or to really work at their studies)
With the rapid expansion of uni places has come the introduction of Hex debt and upfront fees for many. Free Uni brought in by Gough was great but it has morphed into the current winner take all system bad for everyone.
by daretotread on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:13 pm
My Say
What is it called?
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:13 pm
Celebrating with a red. First Galah just fledged from the bird box in the front garden. Flew beautifully with mum and dad proudly alongside. Very moving.
by hairy nose on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:14 pm
HSO:
Glad OH is okay, and good to hear from you again!
Agree re nurses. Had my own health scare a couple of years ago, and it was the nurses who imparted the most information and had the superior interpersonal skills compared with the Drs and the specialists.
One specialist refused to even speak directly to me, preferring to use his trainee (the correct term for these trainee specialists escapes me atm. Registrar? Can’t remember). He was standing beside her as she spoke, and even though I looked directly at him when asking questions, he just looked to her to respond to me and ignored me altogether.
Unbelievably rude! The nurses OTOH were all wonderfully polite, respectful and thoughtful and sympathised with me when I wanted to bitch about him once he and his offsider had left my room.
by confessions on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:19 pm
Music fans may be shocked at this development:
[http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/industry/record-labels/emi-publishing-goes-to-sony-label-to-universal-1005508552.story
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:26 pm
by Dee on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:28 pm
Liked this tweet!
Of course, an investigation carried out by the government would be just hopeless and pointless. Journalists are the only ones capable of looking impartially at their own profession and deciding that it’s flawless.
The government are so pathetic they’d probably think that some things the media does aren’t ethical or something. Because they don’t understand.
Whereas News Ltd owns News Ltd so News Ltd is the really the only organisation capable of making judgments about News Ltd.
by zoomster on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:46 pm
Any investigation of that particular exercise should start with: “Show us your Working Papers.” That is where how they went about it is hidden. If they can’t produce, that would be prima facie of severe naughtiness.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:53 pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/8888091/Leveson-Inquiry-live.html
Media inquiry in UK covered live
by shellbell on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:54 pm
TLBD, i suspect that will be drafted as:
“employers must advise of intended industrial action, and any matters incidental to such an action, at least 72hrs prior to the commencement of such action or matter incidental thereto.”
by imacca on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:58 pm
Live coverage is only reportage?
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 9:59 pm
BK @ 745.
I still have a 2004 US Election button when I was over at Harvard Uni (just a visitor) in Sept 2004 – “Compassionate Conservatism is an Oxymoron – George Bush is just a moron”
How they elected the bloke twice says a lot about Americans and ability of the religious right to mobilize the morons!
by Kirky on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:01 pm
imacca,
Have a chat to McClelland. He might value your input. Dawkins knows we need plain English.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:01 pm
Last night on the graveyard shift I said that I had a recollection that Nielsen was the worst poll for Labor in the final weeks of the 2010 campaign. I was replying to someone who had suggested the opposite was the case – ie that Nielsen was in fact the best poll for the government during that time.
I asked if anyone else could shed any light on the matter but there were hardly any posters and no-one replied. So I thought I’d throw the question open again and see if any pearls of wisdom emerge this time.
by Darn on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Kirky
I was in Boston on election day 2000. What a travesty!
by BK on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:02 pm
I want to watch the Leveson!
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:03 pm
Rubbish
My parents could NOT afford to send me to uni scholarships very limited mainly teaching.
The hecs. Debt makes the youth of today resposible young people
And gives them ownership teaches them about debt also, and after all they then go on to earn good money
If only it had been available for me and my oh,
Our children paid there’s off in no time,
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:04 pm
Bush II first election was a fraud. Second election was a travesty.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:04 pm
It was very very good. Dee about bin laden being captured amazing footage, I hope its on I view
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Darn
This was the Nielsen Poll on 31/7/10, three weeks before election
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/blow-to-labor-as-abbott-surges-20100730-10zxm.html
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:07 pm
my say,
I started uni in 1963. It was virtually free. We are of an age so how come it wasn’t so for you?
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:07 pm
I hate to say this
but the we want kr brigade seem to have vanished
Along with evan, itep, glenn and others
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:10 pm
U must have your dates wrong no free unit till mr whitlam u must of had a scholarship
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:11 pm
my say,
They’ll be along.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:11 pm
my say,
No scholarship. Maybe there were fees but I didn’t feel monetarily constrained and I was on the lowest public service pay.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:13 pm
Yes just googled it ducky 1972. No fees for uni
Year I had my first child
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:15 pm
I’m beginning to think they were a construct of the msm ‘Ruddstoration!’ agenda pushing by the msm.
If the msm message flicks to Ruddstoration once more/Gillard falters/the polls again slide/the Liberals change leaders, they’ll be back crowing like goodness only knows what.
by confessions on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Darn
Wikipedia Shows Newspoll figures during the election last year. It also shows Roy Morgan. Interesting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2010
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:18 pm
Thanks Vic (769). That pretty much confirms what I thought.
I reckon Nielsen was the first to put Labor significantly behind and then kept the bad news coming right up until polling day.
And lo and behold we have the same poll doing the same thing again now – understating the Labor vote by about 2% IMHO.
by Darn on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:20 pm
my say,
We had our first three years after you.
Blessed be Gough!
I dropped out after first year and started up again in 1979
I got my degree at the Canberra CAE.
I did post-graduate Spanish stuff 2000-02; ca $3000 / year, one unit only.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:23 pm
1969!
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:23 pm
Darn
Newspoll had Labor at 52/48 a week before the election.
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Well I had no pay, only my parents and u had to have done years 11/12
And remember woman got half the pay you got
I remember my mother in law saying she would of got a 3rd job to help but oh sister was only a year and bit older so ,that’s impossible
I
Getting a good public service job then was looked upon as a big deal by our parents,
Oh was called up for national service ws in the reserves already so served his time there which took up many many hours but he stayed in e reserves for 19 years,
So no time for study the luberals reuiened many lives with national service,
And gave nothing back ad this lot of men Vietnam vets where the forgotten soldiers for many years,but I dygress
Me I was a commonwealth public servant at. w b and was taught my job on site
But no piece of paper, also o ly went to year 10
As it was only ever considered u did years 11/12 if your parents could afford to send u to uni,
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:35 pm
Darn, I was referring to the pre 2007 polls. I remember Neilsen as being better for Labor than Newspoll
by Andrew on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:35 pm
Almost bed time. Mrs BK and I have immensely enjoyed the bin Laden doco, particularly Obama and a few of the heavies.
by BK on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:36 pm
John Brennan the Counter Terrorism adviser was awesome.
by BK on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:38 pm
my say,
As we are now, we are doing not too badly, you me and ours. That we Poll Bludge is evidence.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:39 pm
744 virgin, airlines. My daughter will get assisted fare from state gov,
But i don’t like her going on her own with such a tiny bub, her oh must get back to running his business, the hospital only give u 48 hours notice of an appoitment
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Who mentioned the wearing of coconut bra for PM Gillard, Medvedev or Obama? i like to see that #auspol
4 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:41 pm
The final Nielsen poll in the 2010 election was better for Labor than Newspoll
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2010/s2989427.htm
by madcyril on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:42 pm
madcyril:
Long time no see.
Hope you have been well.
by confessions on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:43 pm
Crazy stuff that women were considered only half-value, still are in some places. In the workplace, I have found that women are much better at getting value out of the people who work for them. Things are changing: just look at what the Gillard government is doing.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:43 pm
Finns,
Looked like Dmitri: he didn’t look back which would be natural if Obi had said it.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:45 pm
No we did ok, had to give up my lovely job at weather bureau, because mr liberal
Said u had a baby, you must not work in public service
My children think i made that up
So when the int,rates got very high I started my own business,within a business so not much
to get started I did very very well, even got sent overseas to represent the company
Had too earn it. Though, I surprised my self at how well I did, oh got many promotions
And did just as well as he would of done with a signed piece of paper
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:47 pm
Finns,
Could you imagine Prime Minister Tony Abbott in that scenario? “I’m legislating for no grass skirts and no coconut bras in Australia.”
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:47 pm
Oh sorry Andrew. Obviously I misinterpreted.
Also surprised to learn from madcyril that the final Nielsen in 2010 was actually better than Newspoll.
Thanks to all who have responded.
by Darn on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:49 pm
my say,
You got to where you are through initiative. Can’t say the same for me.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:50 pm
Marrick vile. May be not here have u checked fares out for tasmania
Night / all
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:51 pm
Darn,
Pollsters are like financial advisers: a good track record is no indicator of future performance.
by This little black duck on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:52 pm
Duvky, of course u did, think about it
by my say on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:52 pm