Today’s Courier-Mail carries a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which has the Coalition leading 58-42 on two-party preferred, and by 51 per cent to 30 per cent on the primary vote. As bad as that may sound for the government, it in fact points to a reasonably modest 3 per cent swing on their disastrous performance at the last election, which if uniform would cost them the Brisbane seats of Moreton and Petrie. It is also a significant improvement for them on the previous such Galaxy poll a month ago, which had the gaps at 63-37 and 55-23 (with the Greens dropping a point on the primary vote to 11 per cent). Both this month’s and last month’s results square perfectly with the Queensland component of the monthly Nielsen polls, and while these only accounted for a sample of 250 Queensland voters, they can be combined with the Galaxy polls to produce a margin of error of below 3 per cent. The current poll was conducted by phone on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800.
Despite the shift recorded on voting intention, attitudinal questions show no change on previous grim results for the government. There remains fierce opposition to the carbon tax, with support up a point to 29 per cent and opposition steady on 67 per cent. Julia Gillard (19 per cent) is found to trail not only Kevin Rudd (51 per cent) as preferred Labor leader, but also Stephen Smith (22 per cent). That the latter achieved his high rating on the back of respondents who are hostile to the ALP is demonstrated by his 8 per cent rating among Labor voters.
UPDATE (21/11/11): This week’s Essential Research shows a slight shift back to the Coalition, despite what might have been anticipated after the presidential visit. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 34 per cent for Labor (down one) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). Supplementary questions find that support for the mining tax is up five points since September to 51 per cent with opposition down a point to 33 per cent; that the number of respondents who think it likely a Coalition government would “bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices” is down five points to 51 per cent, with unlikely up three to 27 per cent; and that exporting uranium to India is opposed by 45 per cent and supported by only 30 per cent. However, there has been a recovery in support for nuclear power since the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, with support up four to 39 per cent and opposition down eight to 45 per cent. Questions on Afghanistan and the carbon tax show little change on previous findings.