Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll has Labor recovering the point they lost last week, with the Coalition lead on two-party preferred down from 55-45 to 54-46. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is little in the change: the major parties are steady on 34 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (although a one-point drop for the Liberals disappears from the Coalition total after rounding), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Other questions find mounting opposition to the contention that the budget should return to surplus at all costs. Seventy-one per cent declared themselves opposed if doing so meant “cutting services and raising taxes”, with only 13 per cent supportive. Fifty-eight per cent said there was no need for the budget to return to surplus so quickly compared with 38 per cent in April, but if the government remains determined, the number who believe it should be paid for by removing tax breaks for high income earners (59 per cent) and increasing taxes for corporations (72 per cent) is up eight and nine points respectively. Only 35 per cent nominated cuts to “middle-class welfare”.
Further evidence of voters’ curiously social democratic bent was furnished by a question in which respondents were asked to indicated whether various parties had benefited from the mining boom: 68 per cent said yes for mining company executives, 48 per cent for shareholders and 42 per cent for foreign companies, against 12 per cent for regional communities and 11 per cent for “all Australians”. There was also an interesting question on the leaders’ performances during Barack Obama’s visit, in light of suggestions that Julia Gillard had been too effusive and Tony Abbott had politicised the occasion. The results suggest much more support for the latter contention than the former: Gillard’s performance was rated good by 38 per cent and poor by 23 per cent, compared with 18 per cent and 30 per cent for Abbott.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@victoria #1596 – Quentin Dempster would be fun on Late Line.
by CTar1 on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:19 am
A whole lot of people have been against doing anything about the Murray Darling since the NSW v Vic war threats which provided one of the key reasons for Federation. Here we are, 120+ years down the track, and it’s still happening (though Q & SA are now involved in the shouting matches, and for different reasons) and still far from fixed.
About time the Fed government, asap, fine-tuned the MDA plan and used its numbers to get it passed. Thereafter, fine-tuning can continue … forever, probably. But at least there would be a Legislated Plan, Implementation and Assessment strategies.
Usually, once that’s done, most people accept it. Oz’s most significant fundamental structural changes to industries (inc financial) occurred during the mid 1980s & early 1990s under Hawke-Keating. Multiply the current MDA ruckus tenfold for every affected industry across the board – that was what greeted the Committees and Ministers who planned and implemented them! Yet, as the Bush Senior Recession ‘we had to have’ receded under Clinton, and Australia’s economy strengthened, people forgot them.
Yesterday, even Robb (Lateline) credited ‘the last 2 decades’ with creating what is now an international top-class AAA AAA AAA AAA economy!
Fine-tune the plan, get it through Parliament and then implement it as fast as the CP is being implemented. Thereafter, whatever party is in government will fine tune it; but, after 120 often frustrating years, no party will drop it.
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:21 am
CTar1
Yes he orobably would be!
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:21 am
cccp v1.9 should be now available.
// Ver 1.9
// Fixed URL munger to cope with change to Crickey's URL munger.
Let me know if you have any other issues.
by Musrum on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:24 am
OPT
The Greens are not happy and the coaltion just say no. How is the MDB legislation going to get through the Senate?
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:24 am
Testing..
http://uberhumor.com/worlds-highest-standard-of-living/
by don on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:26 am
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/30/tiny-budget-surplus-causes-big-fuss/
Crikey Media wrap, contains links to various articles.
by Leroy on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:27 am
Thanks Musrum, fixed.
by don on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:27 am
Musrum #1598 – Works on Linux/Mozilla (with Greasemonkey)
by CTar1 on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:28 am
Morning all – couldn’t stop watching Robb make a mess of his LL interview last night. Had to prop my eyes open but it was worth it to remind myself of how much Swannie has grown into his job. Hockey topped it off with ramblings on this morning with Fran Kelly. Loved the bit where he said he had personally rung Fitch Hong Kong to get the lowdown on why the AAA rating was given. What a shame he just couldn’t accept one for the confidence of his country.
sonofforo – just read that tweet and was ecstatic that Tony Burke put Joyce down so quickly. I hope Burke makes a point of it on his Ch7 spot with Hockey on Friday.
Everyone should know how Barnaby spins and fabricates and gets away with it – not just the tweeters.
by BH on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:28 am
The table in the attached article by Peter Martin is from p9 of MYEFO.
It shows the projected budget positions of Austalia, Europe, japan, USA and UK.
For the Hockey and Robb, this is the “inconvenient truth” they don’t want to mention.
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2011/11/myefo-small-changes-mostly-harmless.html
It’s another reason to always ask “what is that as a percentage of GDP?” when some LNP or shockjock refers to $100billion in debt, or borrowing $100m a day or similar. these numbers may sound big, but when presented as a % of GDP they look small and are manageable. A few growth years and the under 10% of GDP of debt Australia has will vanish.
And the Australian numbers look absolutely fantastic when compared with our 1st world peers. Which is why the AAA rating.
by sprocket_ on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:28 am
Chris kenny is surpassing Bolt as the worst hack going around.
According to him, why is Swan bothering. No one is listening.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/goodlyfabric/index.php/theaustralian/comments/deficit_attention_deficit/
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:34 am
BK and victoria:
This seems to be the pattern at the end of each year. The govt goes away for the break and not much is heard from them. The Opposition have at least 2-3 people out there every day getting their clunkheads on TV, making sure they’re the ones who are on the evening news. The govt has gone to ground for the past 3 summers – it didn’t matter in 2008 as people were still switched off to the Opposition, but it was disasterous for Rudd just after Abbott got the Lib leadership, and the only reason we ended up seeing a bit more of PM Gillard last summer was due to natural diasters.
The Opposition are working on the PR view of the media – understaffed, willing to use any and all press releases to fill column inches and needing a talking head to show on the news – they provide each of these daily. The govt simply can’t afford to relinquish all that hard work they have done over the past 6 months by vacating the field. If that new chap in the PMs office hasn’t done so yet, he better draw up a roster and get ministers faces in front of cameras or else the summer will, yet again, belong to Tony Abbott, Scott Morrison, Joe Hockey, Julie Bishop, Andrew Robb, and Sophie Mirabella.
by Fiz on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:37 am
Fiz
The ALP conference is this weekend
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:38 am
BH
I think Hockey may well be telling another porky in saying he rung Fitch in HK for details. Why HK?. Fitch have an office in Sydney; they are headquartered in New York and London; and their rating desk in Asia is in Singapore.
http://www.fitchratings.com/web/en/dynamic/contact-us.jsp
by hugh moran on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:38 am
I wonder when Murdoch’s media made the decision to connect the cut to the baby bonus and MP perks. I’d suggest they had the issue of MP perks up their sleeve just waiting for a vicious and unnecessary attack on motherhood by a bunch of politicians who are living the high life. It’s no coincidence that the Hun have barely mentioned which former PM costs tax payers the most by way of maintaining his lifestyle…. John Howard
by Tom Hawkins on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:39 am
Fiz
Also, If the RBA cut interest rates next week, the govt should get a boost. The coalition can rant and rave all they like. Action speaks louder than words
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:39 am
Neil Mitchell’s promo this morning
“Wayne Swan – Can we believe anything he says?
I amended it to
Neil Mitchell – Should we listen to anything he says?
Then I switched it off. Only way to deal with pricks like that.
Murdoch’s rag (The Herald Sun) was true to form too. Front Page:
Julia’s Unkindest Cuts. PM hits families but won’t stop MP rorts.
The Age is a lot more professional (relatively), although smart arse Tony Wright is still trying to be funny and failing miserably. As much as it galls me to say it, I think Michelle Grattan had it pretty much close to the mark yesterday when she seemed to be saying that the things the government is cutting will not be unpopular with the majority of punters. That was my first take on it too when I first heard what they were planning.
by Darn on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:39 am
Ah, I see you haven’t yet seen the light of the Coalition argument, Sprocket. Of course the numbers look good. That is because of Howard and Costello. But the numbers will look bad, any day now, because the ALP are wasteful and incompetent. And we know the ALP are wasteful and incompetent because, well, because they are.
If you’re going to make any sense of this, you need to ignore the facts, ignore the numbers, take no notice of the assessments of independent agencies, and just listen to the Coalition. They know.
by Aguirre on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:41 am
TH
At the presser yesterday with Swan, he was asked about the Pollies perks.
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:42 am
Darn
Do yourself a favour, dont bother with Neil Mitchell. He is bad for your health!
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:45 am
Yes, I know. But the govt has been pretty woeful at countering the rubbish put out by the Opposition in the past. They have done a lot of good, hard work over the past few months and it is sheer lunacy to just vacate the field for a break. In normal circumstances, yes, have a rest after such a full-on year. However, I think it is pretty clear what happens when you just leave the Opposition to get on TV each night to have their little rants without being countered by the govt. The Opposition have been very good at playing the media and they will suck up all the oxygen if given the tiniest bit of a chance. Abbott has regularly played the gallery journos like a fiddle. The govt has finally got him down on the ground. Now is not the time to take the boot off the neck – conference or no conference.
They need a roster.
by Fiz on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:46 am
Fiz
You make some good points
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:47 am
sprocket
A super little summary which shows why the Whitlam and Fraser governments hit financial turbluence; why Whitlam’s financial management (esp under Hayden) of 1st Oil Crisis meant Australia coped better than most Western economies inc Conservative-led UK-USA; and Fraser’s (under Howard) was such a disaster, even on an international scale – and why Gillard’s (under Swan) was rewarded with AAA x 4 by Credit Ratings Agencies.
The only thing that hasn’t changed since 1974? Liberals, with Murdoch media’s connivance, lying about and covering-up the truth of their own and well as Labor governments’ performances – all for political gain.
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:51 am
Finally someone is calling Hockey out on his crap.
by Darn on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:53 am
victoria & confessions
The Abbott interview tonight on LL is with Tony “Gotcha” Jones. I’m expecting a “tickle me elmo” style interview from a starry eyed Jones.
by vote1maxine on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:54 am
vote1maxine
I will give it a miss. Both Tonys shit me to no end!!
by victoria on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:56 am
I think Jones will hit Abbott with a piece of 4 x 4.
Not that I respect Jones but Abbott is wounded and easy prey, something that Jones will instinctively attack.
I hope I’m proven correct.
by Tom Hawkins on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:58 am
During the Gabba Test against the Kiwis (out to do us at cricket, too).
We tragics might keep track of the conference; but I’m sure far more will be attuned to the Test – as well as the usual Commercial TV-fodder: accidents, disasters, crime, weather, scandal & Schoolies from South of the Border.
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:58 am
Great. Another foot massage coming up.
I often wonder whether journos are too scared to really tackle his inconsistencies and try to get some concrete stuff out of him. When pushed he often develops that hooded look as if he wants to thump them.
I find Abbott has a very disturbing disposition.
by confessions on Nov 30, 2011 at 9:59 am
fIz -Swannie was good this morning on Agenda – didn’t listen properly to Morrison because it was the same old. Labor were lucky that Alex Hawke was caught in traffic and didn’t turn up for his spot with Mark Dreyfuss and it ended up a non-aggressive interview by Gilbert which I enjoyed (naturally). Lots of information provided by Dreyfuss but will it be picked up by the MSM – no. Will Morrison’s comments be picked up – more than probably.
by BH on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:00 am
TomH – betcha it’s covered in lambswool! I won’t be bothering to watch.
by BH on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:01 am
I did mention ‘fine tuning’ – which, I assume, will happen. Though I didn’t suggest sending SHY’s big mouth on an exciting trip to unnetted parts of Siberia might be even more productive.
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:01 am
Re Alan Kohler. I was surprised re-starting watching ABC TV news in Sydney that he still has a gig pontificating about financial markets. Complete none-value add. Why not have an ABC journo, say Philip Lasker, to do it??
by Laocoon on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:02 am
Fiz is right, holidays or no holidays, most people still see some news and the government has gone to ground the last 3 summers. Unfortunately I expect to see a lot more on the coalition in the next two months as journos use what little footage they have, i.e. the opposition stunts and scaremongering.
Any ALP members or staffers reading this should ask what’s being dome to keep the momentum going.
by Leroy on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:04 am
Sprocket and OzPolTragic
Thanks for the Stephen Koukoulis link, which is good. Howard being the biggest spender in Australian history is another message Labor should never stop repeating.
The achievements of Labor in containing spending were considerable. For perspective, coincidentally Paul Krugman has a post today on the long term history of US debt, which has been steadily rising ever since WWII. Clinton was the only president to redeuce it. Reagan and Bush increased it spectacularly.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/debt-history/
by Socrates on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:04 am
Oh come on! Kohler keeps the ABC graphics dept in business.
by kakuru on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:04 am
Faine pretty much let Abbott just rave this morning. It would be good if it was made clear that super clinics were actually primary care facilities because Tone is doing a great job at distorting there purpose.
by joe2 on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:05 am
Tom H:
I hope you are correct too, but on Jones’ form I would doubt it.
by confessions on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:05 am
Good question. Even better, why not have Stephen Long, the ABC’s perfectly good in-house economist do it?
by Socrates on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:05 am
Fiz
Good points. Perhaps there’s someone in the gubment you can send your thoughts to.
by Son of foro on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:08 am
Wong made this point in the presser yesterday.
WTF is wrong with today’s journos that something so obvious not only has to be reiterated by the govt, but continues to elude them?
It just isn’t good enough.
by confessions on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:08 am
I happened to turn the radio on this morning just in time to hear Laurie being interviewed by Neil. They talked about the budget and Laurie gave a fairly good positive report on it to my surprise. Then Neil asked him about the Liberal polling taken in Victoria showing Federal Labor’s vote crashing. They both spoke as if the polling was deserving of credit. No mention that party polling needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
by Gary on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:09 am
@Socrates – Krugman is using ‘nonfinancial private-sector debt’ ???
by CTar1 on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:10 am
fixz – forgot to include in the last post to you that I totally agree with your idea of a roster system for Labor pollies to keep up the message. It’s really a must for this holiday season and next even if people are only half listening – at least it wouldn’t be all one way traffic.
by BH on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:14 am
Good morning bludgers. Just caught a replay of last night’s Lateline and “the Robb” interview. My goodness, what a mess.
by george on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:15 am
confessions – it eludes them because their editors have told them it should. I think Trioli might be trying to salvage a bit of her journolike reputation because she is finally going after the dopey things the Oppn says. It’s taken a long time but the senior journos may be feeling that Laura Tingle is shaming them into being a bit more balanced.
Mr Denmore has also shown us just how the manipulation works.
by BH on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:18 am
All spin, no substance. The Unrivaled Champions of Spin.
Abbott would be easy pickings for anyone with the balls to do it. Consider how readily he went into brain-spaz when faced with a relatively tame question from Mark Riley.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUdPabnXUNA
The journalist who corners this guy so he can’t escape and presses tough questions onto him, is bound to get some memorable footage.
The only thing in doubt is whether any of our ‘journalists’ are game enough to do it. As Confessions put it:
by Cuppa on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:18 am
Fiz:
Was that the real problem though? I thought the troubles came as a result of three issues:
1. ETS – Rudd blinking when the Greens opposed it, which gave a massive green light to the Coalition to hammer the ALP day after day. That was a particular situation with a number of players feeding into it. But it did paint the ALP – or allow them to be painted – as wavering, reneging even, on a key issue.
2. The ALP taking Coalition claims seriously. The Insulation scheme and the BER got twice as much airtime because the ALP acted as if they had done wrong, and sought to rectify the situation. In that instance it would have been better for them to get on the front foot, but even more so to be clear in their message.
3. Abbott was new to the leadership. It revitalised the party.
Now, the past is the past, and there’s not a lot of point re-analysing all that. My point is only that the Coalition don’t have those sorts of issues right now to call on. They can talk all they like, they won’t get any traction. Asylum seeker issues have been neutralised, NBN and carbon pricing are now fact rather than points of debate (unless you take “we’ll rescind them” seriously). Mining tax is nearly there as well, plus it has broad support.
And when government representatives do address the media, they give a united appearance, and approach every topic with confidence. I don’t think the conditions are similar to those in late-2009. Unless the Coalition can put some meat on the bones of their complaints, they’re going to get very stale very quickly in the off-season.
by Aguirre on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:22 am
Signing off for several hours. I’m off to the flatlands to see the fang doctor.
by BK on Nov 30, 2011 at 10:23 am