Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll has Labor recovering the point they lost last week, with the Coalition lead on two-party preferred down from 55-45 to 54-46. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is little in the change: the major parties are steady on 34 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (although a one-point drop for the Liberals disappears from the Coalition total after rounding), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Other questions find mounting opposition to the contention that the budget should return to surplus at all costs. Seventy-one per cent declared themselves opposed if doing so meant “cutting services and raising taxes”, with only 13 per cent supportive. Fifty-eight per cent said there was no need for the budget to return to surplus so quickly compared with 38 per cent in April, but if the government remains determined, the number who believe it should be paid for by removing tax breaks for high income earners (59 per cent) and increasing taxes for corporations (72 per cent) is up eight and nine points respectively. Only 35 per cent nominated cuts to “middle-class welfare”.
Further evidence of voters’ curiously social democratic bent was furnished by a question in which respondents were asked to indicated whether various parties had benefited from the mining boom: 68 per cent said yes for mining company executives, 48 per cent for shareholders and 42 per cent for foreign companies, against 12 per cent for regional communities and 11 per cent for “all Australians”. There was also an interesting question on the leaders’ performances during Barack Obama’s visit, in light of suggestions that Julia Gillard had been too effusive and Tony Abbott had politicised the occasion. The results suggest much more support for the latter contention than the former: Gillard’s performance was rated good by 38 per cent and poor by 23 per cent, compared with 18 per cent and 30 per cent for Abbott.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
There’s ALP membership numbers, then there’s the real world.
by confessions on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:42 pm
MsAdventure@2758
Yes! That’s it.
Congrats.
by Musrum on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:42 pm
Dio, are u a member of any committees board, p and f, mm mothers club/ dads club,
Little aths, hockey, soccer, rural fire fighter, rotary, lions
is so u will soon find out, people are mostly to mean and pre occupied with them selves , to join, turn up to meetings, help with coachi g fund raising
But are the first to complain,
We cannot even fill a roster for tuck shop these days,
by my say on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:42 pm
Doyley
If you look at the numbers, ALP membership was pretty steady from 2002 to 2007. It was then that it started dropping.
That wouldn’t fit with a surge in 2007 due to WorkChoices and a compensatory drop since then. My guess is hatred of Howie-Libs was keeping the numbers up and then the job was done so there was a let-down.
It might be the opposite of footy club membership; you have more members when you are doing badly.
by Diogenes on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:42 pm
Dio, it is not an argument I would engage in as I don’t trust anyones figures.
by bemused on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:43 pm
Well, I am looking for a stylish mac for the kitchen for mail, recipe browsing on the net, and keeping up with PB, and ALP website.
I have one by the bed and it is great not having a clunky box taking up room.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:43 pm
On the eve of Labor’s National Conference, now is a good time to revisit a speech by John Faulkner made in June 2011:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-wran-speech-the-full-transcript-20110609-1fv3n.html
by Pegasus on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:44 pm
ru
Reading numbers from the ALP’s own graph is hardly distorting the facts.
The numbers are what the numbers are.
That is reality.
by Diogenes on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Puff:
Several PBers have iPads. Is this an option for you?
by confessions on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Puff, if you’re interested, it’s yours. I’ll get it reformatted and ready for shipping. You can let me know if you’re still interested when I’ve got it organised. I’ll take care of any costs.
by george on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:46 pm
my say
I’m going to Tassie next year.
Put me down for the tuck-shop roster in December.
by Diogenes on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:47 pm
At least we will get media coverage from Labor’s national conference. By contrast, Greens national conferences come and go with the media being barred from entry, and the general public being force fed a daily statement from a Greens conference representative.
by confessions on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:48 pm
On ABC TV The Drum this evening, Gallop and Rann were interviewed and the topic of Labor membership came up.
by Pegasus on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:48 pm
December, school holidays
Is this for work or holidays
I have been meaning to ask you, had u heard of mirror syndrom
by my say on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:49 pm
I’d rather see you in the rural fire fighters in December, Dio, if you have the time.
by Fulvio Sammut on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:49 pm
According to the Review, the loss of members is not across the board with the larger states being the main problem, esp NSW, although they don’t provide a breakdown.
by Diogenes on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:50 pm
BH 2854
At meetings I’ve been to, and he has been present, no view has been expressed by him.
My suspicion would be that, being the religious conservative that he is, he would be opposed to same-sex marriage. Full stop.
I notice that he has been mute on this subject.
I just hope that the PM can, again, give strong leadership in this area.
I’m tired of it all.
by feeney on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:50 pm
In fact, the ALP has a distinct page at its website dedicated to national conference. I can’t see any corresponding page at the Greens’ website dedicated to its national conferences.
Transparency not?
http://greens.org.au/
by confessions on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:51 pm
And to put all this in perspective Dio, can you quote us the comparative figures for the Liberal Party?
by Fulvio Sammut on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:52 pm
fess,
I use a laptop in the lounge while I am watching tv. I want a mac for the kitchen for its style, fitting in with how I want to decorate my kitchen, I always intended to have one there so I can look up anything on a large screen while cooking. It is no point hiding my pc’s away in a room or carrying one around with me. Technology is just in there with everything I do now so I may as well make it look good.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Well, according to JV that’s where the blame lies. You see, she’s a lackey of Farrell and the DLP/shoppies and they’ll be controlling the conscience-vote by intimidation. A conscience vote in a right-controlled party will guarantee defeat (according to JV) because they’ll take down the names of those who dare to vote according to their conscience, and most are not the brave.
As one old enough to remember the conscience vote in the House on abortion back in the 70s, I’m not all that convinced of the JV thesis.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:54 pm
my say
It’s a condition of pregnancy when the foetus and mother get severe swelling. I think it occurs with pre-eclampsia. It’s quite serious.
by Diogenes on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:54 pm
confessions
Timely thoughts.
I have just this last five minutes come in from burying old Tessie. Since the vet (who was kicked in the mouth by a horse today – lost two teeth and got three stitches courtesy of his wife!) saw her two days ago he could not believe how quickly she had deteriorated.
It was the right decision.
Tears all round.
But plenty of happy memories.
Vale Tess.
by BK on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:54 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-01/cassidy-all-grown-up-ministers-talking-policy-not-politics/3706842
More in the article
by Leroy on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:54 pm
Fess, please be gentle with Horsey
by The Finnigans on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:54 pm
Until now the Greens have been considered irrelevant, or so I have been led to believe by so many here on PB, for a couple of years at least
Consequently, the MSM too were never really interested in reporting the Greens annual conferences, or reporting any in-depth analysis of Greens policies, etc.
Apparently, the Greens have become relevant now
by Pegasus on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:55 pm
But if there is anyone out there more needing a pc than me, coz I already have one, two or was it three…please, please, get ahead of me in the line.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:55 pm
Diogenes, why this new found interest in ALP membership?
Can I arrange to sign you up? We are short of tree surgeons as members.
by bemused on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:57 pm
Today’s to do list.
http://twitter.com/#!/Can_do_Campbell/status/141993319025741824/photo/1
by steve on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:59 pm
confessions – you beat me to it.
feeney – why has Kev been silent. He has been speaking out on other things and some of his ideas for conference are legitimate.
by BH on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:59 pm
BK:
I remember you said 8am, but couldn’t remember if you said 8am your time in Adelaide or normal time.
I will be needing to the same with my oldest dog very soon – vet who came today to anaethsitise my lama for shearing said my eldest dog has around 3mths left, if that. Very sobering.
Vale Tess. I love dogs and could never see myself without at least one.
by confessions on Dec 1, 2011 at 8:59 pm
Oops, I mean 8pm.
by confessions on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Horsey
I have previously advised you about your posts… too many words, too many links.
Today I add … too many posts.
by bemused on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:00 pm
OK, George,thanks, but again, if there is another PBer for whom it would be a real boon, let them have it.
As it was yours, George, I bet it is in tip-top condition.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:01 pm
bemused, concern trolls tend to be very concerned about the Labor Party. Apparently the Liberal Party isn’t worth being concerned over.
by george on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:01 pm
confessions
Thankyou.
Fortunately we still have another dog – a two year old that is a bundle of energy, full of love and always on for a game or a walk, or a swim, or a . . . . . . .
by BK on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:02 pm
Fulvio
I can’t find any official figures. One article says Lib membership dropped from 340,000 in the 1940′s to 63,000 in 2005!
Presumably it has continued to drop since then but I can’t find any more recent figures.
by Diogenes on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:02 pm
Yes its thats. Right and more than that
Our daughter took on the babies heart symptoms,
When the baby was born , he had heart. Stenosis, mother got better ,
Baby flown to Melbourne mother was in intensive care, baby had heart surgery.
All ba ck home now safe and ok,
They have to me includedfky to melbourne every month for some time
I do wish specialists would realize the cost, its cheaper for one dr to fly here than three of us to me lb
Find someone to look afterother children
The care they got, was amazing, quick action, media vac, to Melbourne and heart surgery
Great system we have truly grateful
by my say on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:02 pm
Pegass – I remember some kind of conference the Greens had a few months ago which SkyNews asked to attend. It was refused and set piece media releases provided later.
by BH on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:02 pm
This morning on ABC RN The Breakfast program Fran Kelly interviewed Andrew Barr, ACT Deputy Chief Minister, and spokesman for the cross-factional Rainbow Labor Network:
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/2011-12-01/3705724
If I remember correctly, Barr said wtte that he was opposed to a conscience vote on gay marriage because in the Labor Party conscience votes are reserved for matters of life and death.
by Pegasus on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:02 pm
bemused, please be gentle with Horsey
by The Finnigans on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:02 pm
They have to including me fly to
by my say on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:03 pm
finns
ur learning
by gusface on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:03 pm
George, please be gentle with Diog
by The Finnigans on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:03 pm
BK,
Vale Tess.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:03 pm
george, I admit to never being concerned about the Liberal party apart from it’s defeat.
by bemused on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Gussie, please be gentle with The Finnigans
by The Finnigans on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Puff, it’s in perfect shape – as I upgrade so often here there’s always a plethora of macs/screens etc. The previous iPads were taken up by family members – it was like watching a seagull feeding frenzy at the beach
I’ve kept the iMacs for so long due to how stylish they look, but they’re taking up space and have to let them go.
by george on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:04 pm
BK
[Fortunately we still have another dog – a two year old that is a bundle of energy, full of love and always on for a game or a walk, or a swim, or a . . . . . . .:
“for a game or a walk, or a swim, or a …. ” something involving bystanders lower legs ?
by poroti on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:05 pm
Finns, is gentle the new cruelty?
by george on Dec 1, 2011 at 9:06 pm