Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll has Labor recovering the point they lost last week, with the Coalition lead on two-party preferred down from 55-45 to 54-46. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is little in the change: the major parties are steady on 34 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (although a one-point drop for the Liberals disappears from the Coalition total after rounding), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Other questions find mounting opposition to the contention that the budget should return to surplus at all costs. Seventy-one per cent declared themselves opposed if doing so meant “cutting services and raising taxes”, with only 13 per cent supportive. Fifty-eight per cent said there was no need for the budget to return to surplus so quickly compared with 38 per cent in April, but if the government remains determined, the number who believe it should be paid for by removing tax breaks for high income earners (59 per cent) and increasing taxes for corporations (72 per cent) is up eight and nine points respectively. Only 35 per cent nominated cuts to “middle-class welfare”.
Further evidence of voters’ curiously social democratic bent was furnished by a question in which respondents were asked to indicated whether various parties had benefited from the mining boom: 68 per cent said yes for mining company executives, 48 per cent for shareholders and 42 per cent for foreign companies, against 12 per cent for regional communities and 11 per cent for “all Australians”. There was also an interesting question on the leaders’ performances during Barack Obama’s visit, in light of suggestions that Julia Gillard had been too effusive and Tony Abbott had politicised the occasion. The results suggest much more support for the latter contention than the former: Gillard’s performance was rated good by 38 per cent and poor by 23 per cent, compared with 18 per cent and 30 per cent for Abbott.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The Dutch were so much nicer.
So were the Spanish, Portuguese, French …
by Fulvio Sammut on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:26 pm
My Say
Few post ago you mentioned parliment lasting until 2014 – Not sure sure where you got that from.
The election was 21 August 2010. Parliament must meet within 30 days ie Sep 30 but it in fact met earlier.
Parliament MUST end by 30 September or just a little earlier ie 3 days after it met – I think about September 10 20010 but I will stick to maxima.
Writs must be issued 10 days later and nominations close 7 days after that and election 31 days later Maximum).
This means that the ABSOLUTE latest for the election is Nov 27 2013. Since I think Parliament met a little earlier than 30 September Let us say the maximum possible date is about 15 November 2013. Thinking 2014 is not helpful.
In reality no parliament has gone for more than 3 years so the likely date for the election will be July 2013.
Now if polls still look poor for Labor I would expect the election to be before July 2013 to avoid a senate election.
Therefore at this point in time I would be expecting an election in between June -August 2013. or 19 -21 months
by daretotread on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:27 pm
Centre:
What errant nonsense. The ALP is responsible for the rendition policy. If you don’t like it and don’t support it, just spit it out. Ranting and raving and thrashing about doesn’t alter the fact that the ALP came up with this all by themselves, just like they came up with mandatory detention by themselves.
The liberal party, and Howard, are responsible for their dog whistles
The ALP, and Gillard, is responsible for its dog whistles
by Mod Lib on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:27 pm
ABC 7.5 Canberra had 20 minutes on Cold Light, a historical fiction set about political life in the 50s and 60s in Canberra.
http://www.randomhouse.com.au/books/frank-moorhouse/cold-light-9781741661262.aspx
by This little black duck on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:28 pm
A good read over at JTI’s place on the topuc du jour.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/same_old_same_old_on_same_sex_union/desc#commentsmore
by poroti on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:28 pm
I ‘ll be on my bass behaviour
by gusface on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:29 pm
Now you’re gropering!
by This little black duck on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:30 pm
Dave
nice summary.
by george on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:31 pm
FS
wRONg.
But implying that Mr Churchill, as a mass murderer, is so much more acceptable when other mass murderers were, relatively, not nicer is beside the point.
by Boerwar on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:31 pm
watermelon_manDavid Horton
Laurie Oakes contemptuous dismissal of the PM’s speech – boring, nothing new, repeating “jobs”, etc. Impossible to imagine it done to Abbott
From Twitter
Guess this was on ch 9, though LO had seen the light???
by mari on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:31 pm
Scarpat – you could right about it being Monica Attard. Another topline journo. I really enjoyed those reports on how she had to acclimatise to being the wife of a Russian and a journo in Moscow. Fascinating stuff.
by BH on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:31 pm
@tlbd – Is ‘axes’ some sort of code to do with staff? Am I missing a link? (not to do with seafood or maybe so?)
by CTar1 on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:32 pm
i see that there is a like to the Handwritten Exhibition on the right side of this page…
by Boerwar on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:32 pm
Well you just named Mal Washer, and Malcolm Turnbull has been front and centre in the media on disagreeing with the climate change position. Heck, he gave up his leadership and a possibly prime ministership on the principle of the matter (while Gillard dumped it like a hot potato when she thought it might hurt her politically).
by Mod Lib on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:33 pm
30th November 2013 is the latest date for an election. The is no reason to believe it will be earlier.
Nov 27th is a wednesday so don’t back that date in.
by ruawake on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:34 pm
Pish. Of course Oakes would do it to Abbott.
by William Bowe on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:35 pm
daretoread:
From the AEC website:
my say is half right about elections in 2014.
http://www.aec.gov.au/FAQs/Elections.htm#dates
by confessions on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:35 pm
Will be there during the Tattoo but have been to it twice, the fringe is better now, you can get to see shows for about half price if you go down to the box offices in Prince St
by mari on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:36 pm
…and July 1st is our date with destiny. Just 7 months to go! If Gillard is still PM your charity wins $100, remember?
by Mod Lib on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:36 pm
gusface
Just doing it for the halibut but then there is a time and a plaice for everything.
by poroti on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:36 pm
Gus, Ducky:
Please (please!) don’t try an octopus line.
by confessions on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:36 pm
Yep, got your cheque book ready.
by ruawake on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:38 pm
Gillard has just delivered carbon pricing where none of her predecessors could.
And it has hurt her politically, so I’m not sure why you’d want to reference past tense there.
by confessions on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:38 pm
The Dutch undertook many atrocities in what is now Indonesia. The Dutch had great difficulty saying sorry too, but I believe they have now done so.
So did us Australians here.
by dave on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:38 pm
fess
those tentacles have already been fried
by gusface on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:38 pm
Mod Lib face facts.
The Liberals made AS a political issue. They prevented the Tampa from entering our shores which won them the 2001 election.
The Liberals sent people to Nauru for extended periods without processing.
Hey FACT: Rudd changed Howard’s policy.
But guess what? The boats started to come again and
made it a political issue again which won the Noalition plenty of votes at the last election.
Gillard now has every right not to disadvantage herself politically and find an adequate solution to stop the boats.
Get real!
by Centre on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:39 pm
…won’t be needing it!
by Mod Lib on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:40 pm
just as long as u dont get a flathead
by gusface on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:40 pm
I don’t see why. Parliament could very easily go until August and an election not be held until September or October. Election to election, John Howard’s last term ran nearly seven weeks past the three year mark.
by William Bowe on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:40 pm
Well poroti, you can hake it or leave it as you see fit. Gus:
Perhaps you should just hake it or leave it.
by confessions on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:42 pm
poroti – I had no idea so many countries already recognised SSM. I thought it was just a couple.
If the legislation is presented then Labor left should work on several Liberals plus the cross benches to pick up the votes they may not have on their own side.
daretotread – I thought the election could be delayed for anything up to 3 months after it is due. There was talk of Howard not needing to call an election (due Dec 2007) until March 2008.
by BH on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:43 pm
More information about the Greens Party take on parliamentarians’ pay:
According to the by-laws of the Australian Greens, specifically section on code of conduct for Greens MPs:
by Pegasus on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:43 pm
…be careful the two of you dont incur the wrasse of Can-do Bilbo.
by Mod Lib on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:43 pm
Crap. He has danced around the position you claim and supported abbott at the sametime in the same breath.
He was chucked out because your party hated his guts and still do.
For the third time -
by dave on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:43 pm
care to make it $1000….?
by george on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:43 pm
Emma Alberici. Can’t stand her. Affected, too concerned with herself.
So, another ABC “news” program negated, for me.
by Scringler on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Mysterious how a lot of our friends in the media have already forgotten that achievement, because you know, TEH POLLS are more important than a mere something like carbon pricing.
by rishane on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:46 pm
Tempted to cite Roe v Wade in response.
by confessions on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:46 pm
Fully supported by Beazley at the time wasn’t it?
The ALP froze all processing of Afghani and Tamil AS.
The ALP wants to send AS to third countries as well (what does it matter whether this is in the South Pacific or South Asia?)
Correct. Rudd aint PM and he aint responsible for the “lurch to the right”
You are right. She does have every right. And I have every right to criticise her.
Is this directed at Julia or me?
by Mod Lib on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:46 pm
BH
I have not made a judgement whether she is to be believed or not, nor am I going to.
I merely posted some pertinent information that related to the earlier disccussion between diogenes and others about Gillard and gay marriage / same sex marriage.
by Pegasus on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:47 pm
Very well put BH, couldn’t agree more
by mari on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:50 pm
Well i did not imagine it
Some one here did say in fact it can be drawn out to feb 2014
by my say on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:50 pm
More than happy to take a bet with Rua.
Perhaps, will err on the side of caution in relation to your good self.
$1k a little out of my price range. She won’t be there then, but not willing to bet a cool k on that outcome.
by Mod Lib on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:51 pm
RUA
Cannot see how it can be Nov 30 (unless the date of writs return is 10 days after the election.
However the operative dates are:
1 year from first sitting of Parliament -
Plus 10 days for writs
Plus 27 days for close of nomination
Plus 31 days max for election after close
Now I think Parliament first sat on the 14th September 2010 so working from there gives 24 Sept 2013 as last day for writs, 18 October for close of nominations (Friday but it might stretch to Monday 21st. Then maximum 31 days means election must be before Nov 21. This means that the Saturday 16th is the last date.
If parliament did not meet until 28th September then you may be right about the 30th.
Mind you cannot think of a time when any one went past the three year date so it would be a little risky – but possible.
by daretotread on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:51 pm
I thought “you won’t be needing your cheque book”? I guess that wasn’t a core confidence?
by george on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:54 pm
MySay
Then someone was WRONG
Trust RUA if not me
by daretotread on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:56 pm
Mod Lib
He did not support he bloody sold out and rolled over.No ticker. It was when I promised to not ever vote for the Labor party whilst he was leader. Meanwhile across the Tasman a real Laor leader showed how it should be done.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Helen-Clark—full-interview-on-asylum-seeker-boats/tabid/419/articleID/218678/Default.aspx
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/1338947/Boat-people-facing-a-wave-of-hatred.html
by poroti on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:56 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3220679.htm
Well, heres my mate Malcolm for a start. There were many examples of this, on Lateline, on QandA and I think an interview on 7:30 report as well (but could be mistaken it may have been another Lateline).
by Mod Lib on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:56 pm
ModLib – 1.2 NZ bananas = 1 AU banana ? Trying to work out value.
by CTar1 on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:57 pm
She’s one of the few (but sadly increasing) ABC TV reporters who insist on doing the “piece to camera” in all her reports — you can take the girl out of the commercial station, but you cannot take the commercial station out of the girl!
by Darren Laver on Dec 2, 2011 at 8:58 pm