Crikey



Weekend miscellany

No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:

• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.

Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.

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  1. scorpio,

    On PB, a kaleidoscope can easily be mistaken for a bazooka, can’t it?!?

    by Kersebleptes on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:06 pm

  2. JuliaGillard Julia Gillard
    Selling uranium to India will open markets & create jobs for Australians. Today is a big day for our relationship with India. JG

    by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:07 pm

  3. Meanwhile, outside #ALPnc the No Carbon Tax Rally has attracted precisely 112 people.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn’t they be a little bit late with this Rally? ;-)

    I thought it was as close to ” L” ” A ” W ” law äs it is possible to be.

    by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:07 pm

  4. http://mumbrella.com.au/pauline-am-67486

    Pauline AM

    Dr Mumbo hears that The Celebrity Apprentice may yet prove to be the launchpad for a full media career for former politician Pauline Hanson.

    He understands that she’s in negotiations to host talkback radio to regional markets.

    December 3rd, 2011 at 6:54 pm

    No more info, just that

    by Leroy on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:08 pm

  5. Bob Brown telling it like it is…. Julia Winston Howard (and good on her)

    "The prime minister can take full responsibility for holding us back in the Howard era. She is with John Howard on this issue, she is with him on asylum seekers and she is with him on selling uranium to India,"

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/gillard-like-howard-on-policiessays-bob-brown/story-e6frfku0-1226213382993#ixzz1fWlzveXE

    by rummel on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:09 pm

  6. DTT

    We should then stop exporting to China and Russia as well

    by victoria on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:11 pm

  7. Kersebleptes,

    scorpio,

    On PB, a kaleidoscope can easily be mistaken for a bazooka, can’t it?!?

    Hammer – nail – swing – bulls-eye! ;-)

    by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:16 pm

  8. I have this u-beaut filter that hides all comments that contain “Rudd”. 75% fewer comments to worry about.

    by This little black duck on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:16 pm

  9. Hi, I have been watching the livefeed of alpnc and commenting there.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:18 pm

  10. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2011/12/04/conscience-confusion-on-gay-marriage/

    Conscience confusion on gay marriage
    December 4, 2011 – 1:06 pm, by Andrew Crook

    Some amusing reverse-ferrets came out of yesterday’s ALP National Conference same sex marriage debate.

    While the vibe was generally positive, progressive activists and the Greens were quick to go on the attack to accuse Labor of settling for a conscience vote rather than a binding decree drawn from the platform.

    At a 5,000-strong rally outside the conference convention centre, Labor was damned — partly from within its own ranks — for not going the whole hog, confusing some onlookers who viewed the Barr-Wong amendment to “ensure equal access to marriage under statute for all adult couples irrespective of sex” as a significant step forward.

    The Greens were in a difficult position because the party allows their elected Members a conscience vote on all issues. Before the platform-conscience dyad popped up in the last three weeks, an appeal to conscience appeared to be the best the left could hope for.

    In January 2010, Sarah Hanson-Young called on Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott to allow their MPs a conscience vote on marriage equality, saying “let the members of your parties have the courage of their convictions by giving them a conscience vote.”

    On July 6, Hanson-Young reiterated her call for a conscience vote in the Senate, saying “All members in this place should be able to have a conscience vote on this matter… We need a conscience vote on my private members’ bill and I believe that it can happen.”

    But not yesterday. “Rather than seizing the moment and bringing forward a guarantee of this legislation passing the parliament, the Labor party has opted out,” Hanson-Young said.

    Original Crikey article has links to all the articles quoted

    by Leroy on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:19 pm

  11. d @ 992

    As one of those very self same lefties who have stuck with Labor NOT the Greens I do NOT feel the way you hoped. I could NOT in conscience recruit friends to Labor. Going to a party this afternoon with a bunch of Green/Labor people whom (pre Gillard) I was trying to recruit to Labor. Will assess their reaction and tell you if there is any validity in what you hope.

    To be clear, my point was that splitting the centre left vote into two competing parties does have negative policy implications for the progressive element of the centre left vote. In particular, as this Conference has demonstrated, when substantial progressive elements bleed from Labor to the Greens, the right becomes dominant in the Labor rump. On top of that, those in the Greens are not as trammelled by the consequences of their actions as they otherwise might have been, and they frequently end up looking holier than thou, thoroughly impractical or driven by ideology.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:19 pm

  12. Just ONE Carey

    Uranium is for me a defining issue.

    Good for you.

    by Carey Moore on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:20 pm

  13. Victoria

    I would have opposed both these export years ago but the cat isout of the bag. Mind you I think Russia DOES have waste management and so too does China. China has a pretty dubious safety record in mines I agree but would think it has the organizational skills to ensure nuclear waste is collected and stored reasonably safely.

    Obviously we should now be able to export uranium to Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil and South Africa. Democracies mostly and exact same arguments apply as for India.

    But we have done as the US bid and helped in the containment of China.

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:21 pm

  14. strike 3 – uranium to India

    Labor lives up to expectations and effectively knocks over the 3 big left issues of the conference (maybe 1/2 points for changing the platform on marriage equality) – Shame Labor, Shame

    by womble on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:21 pm

  15. 1005

    Yes We should.

    The 5 powers allowed nuclear weapons by the NPT are only done so on a temporary basis while they negotiate their complete abolition. These 5 powers are thus not in compliance with the NPT and should not be exported to.

    I am against the export of uranium for nuclear power as well.

    by Tom the first and best on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:22 pm

  16. BW

    With important electoral impact. It is more than possible that this will be a seat loser for Albo and Tanya P.

    I imagine Anna Bligh not happy because green preferences will be vital if she is to hang on to any seats at all.

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:24 pm

  17. Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn’t they be a little bit late with this Rally? ;-)

    I thought it was as close to ” L” ” A ” W ” law äs it is possible to be.

    It’s never to late to provide Abbott with talking points. It may be too late to stop the carbon tax, but it’s not too late to get Gillard voted out because of it.

    Of course, what they really hate is the lying. They’re committed to exposing every single case of lying that’s not perpetrated by the Coalition.

    by Aguirre on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:25 pm

  18. India whinged, whined and complained about our refusal to to sell uranium to them despite India refusing to sign the MPT. Never mind we have treaty obligations. They have called us racists, threatened our export markets, pleaded poverty while spending on nuclear weapons, demeaned us internationally and basically bullied our politicians into going against our our agreements regarding the sale of uranium.

    Now they will get our uranium on their terms. When one of those plants goes tits up, don’t come knocking on my door with the collection tin.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:26 pm

  19. I haven’t seen or heard from Abbott in days.

    It isn’t like him to lie low while Labor gets all the news coverage.

    by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:27 pm

  20. Tom

    Me too.

    Nuclear power is stupid until the waste issue is resolved. When fusion is possible I may rethink.

    Mind you I cannot believe that fusion is NOT possible for power generation. It is just the military do not want this technology used for civilian purposes.

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:27 pm

  21. I have this u-beaut filter that hides all comments that contain “Rudd”. 75% fewer comments to worry about.

    You’re not going to be able to read your own comment saying you’ve filtered the comments then…

    Of course, you can’t read this either, so there’s no point in me pointing this out.

    by Aguirre on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:28 pm

  22. If India does not have access to Australian uranium it will buy it elsewhere. The only practical issue with respect to uranium and India is, therefore, the price India ends up paying for uranium on the world uranium markets. If Australia is a potential supplier, India will pay less for uranium.

    Thus, despite an awful amount of National Conference rhetoric, the substantive practical issue is thus a marginal pricing issue.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:28 pm

  23. Bush was ready to defy the NPT too. Never got around to it but a future US President could easily do it (they have a history of ignoring or renouncing their treaties).

    END prevents smaller nuclear powers with rational governments from being belligerent with such weapons. I have more worry over what the US does with its uranium than what India does.

    Until Pakistan signs the NPT, India won’t. And until India signs it, Pakistan won’t.

    by Carey Moore on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:29 pm

  24. Boerwar:

    I agree with your comments about the left vote being split.

    by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:30 pm

  25. only reason we are selling uranium to India is that the US asked us to – just look at when the change in position came about – Labor once again selling out on what should be it’s core beliefs

    the funniest thing is people still call them a centre left party LOL

    by womble on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:30 pm

  26. Puff
    Yep

    I have no patience with any country that spends on military while leaving population in abject poverty. I did not know the military spending until today by Albo. I am shocked.

    I admit to have been being really shocked day one of a three month holiday in India to find that walking the streets was impossible in the morning because of the defecation.

    Also seeing crowds of people (women)carrying water when it would be possible to provide drinking water.

    Go the the stunning Taj Mahal and over the river (about 500 metres away, the people live without sewerage or water.

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:32 pm

  27. The lizard people made the ALP agree to export uranium!!1!

    by Carey Moore on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:33 pm

  28. d

    I imagine Anna Bligh not happy because green preferences will be vital if she is to hang on to any seats at all.

    So, the Greens are going to punish themselves and everyone else by choosing Mr Newman over Ms Bligh?

    Sounds like a plan to me.

    The overall switch from Labor to Greens seems to incur a 20% loss of second preferences. That is to say, for every 100 voters who switch from Labor to the Greens, Labor effectively loses 20 votes.

    Those Greens voters who helped thereby ensure Mr Baillieu become Victorian Premier might do well to think that the practical outcomes of their actions include substantial coal seam gas prospecting and cattle grazing in a conservation area out near Terrick Terrick, this being the thin edge of the wedge for substantial cattle grazing in Victoria’s conservation areas.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:34 pm

  29. Womble
    Yep

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:34 pm

  30. That’s a ruddy good filter you have there, tlbd.

    by Kersebleptes on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:35 pm

  31. BW

    Optional preferential voting in Qld

    Greens need just vote 1

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:35 pm

  32. Aguirre

    Perhaps we should all add a Rudd footer to our posts? TLBD would then be wondering where everyone went.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:36 pm

  33. d

    Greens need just vote 1

    Actually, from an overarching centre left point of view we all need the Greens to exercise their second preference.

    Otherwise they are just gifting the reactionaries with a spent vote. Not smart politics at all – unless you love to hate your other centre left comrades more than you hate the reactionaries.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:38 pm

  34. BW

    Perhaps we should all add a Rudd footer to our posts? TLBD would then be wondering where everyone went.

    I’m Rudd with you on that. :)

    by Aguirre on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:42 pm

  35. Meanwhile, outside #ALPnc the No Carbon Tax Rally has attracted precisely 112 people.

    Coincidentally, 112 was also the average age of the protesters.

    by kakuru on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:44 pm

  36. 1027

    The swing to the Greens was only 1-2% and the main issue was people switching there not, happy with the ALP votes to the Coalition from the Greens (who had had a significantly higher vote in the polls). The only thing the Greens could have done was run a “voting Liberal will make the problems worse but voting Green will make them better” campaign. The ALP could have done much better on urban PT particularly between 1999 and 2006.

    The election defeat was the fault of Bracks, Brumby and Batchellor not the Greens.

    by Tom the first and best on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:44 pm

  37. A

    Awright Awruddy.

    rudd

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:44 pm

  38. TTF&TB

    It is not the swing to the Greens that counted. It was the tally of Greens preferences that bled from Labor to the reactionaries and whether this bleed was the difference between a centre left Victorian government or a reactionary government.

    I don’t know the actual figures, so mine is essentially a hypothetical exercise about the implications of having two centre left parties.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:47 pm

  39. Boerwar,

    Those Greens voters who helped thereby ensure Mr Baillieu become Victorian Premier might do well to think that the practical outcomes of their actions include substantial coal seam gas prospecting and cattle grazing in a conservation area

    The result in Queensland If the greens preference the LNP over Labor or allow a free vote (ie Qld has OPV ) would be ecologically catastrophic IMO.

    Wild Rivers legislation rescinded (mining and other damaging developments in the Cape York and Gulf areas, Water harvesting, agricultural and mining developments in the Lake Eyre basin Rivers for just a start.

    Unfortunately, the Qld greens have a history of crazy preferencing which always has the potential to back-fire in a big and sometimes unexpected manner.

    Well, to the greens anyway.

    by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:47 pm

  40. BW

    I think that you could interpret the puzzling difference between the Morgan preference distribution between stated and last election as DIRECTLY indicating the softness of the Green preference drift of Labor.

    This will simply make it more explicit.

    What Labor people fail to grasp is that Greens voters are essentially MIDDLE CLASS and educated. When confronted with a choice between a red necked Lindsay test centre working class party and an urbane business oriented right MIDDLE class LNP many will go with class unless they have a good policy reason to do otherwise.

    Greens voters will not go for Abbott but they would for Turnbull. Greens voters will not see any substantial difference between Gillard and the LNP on key policy issues such as environment or asylum seekers or civil liberty, so they will make their call on other issues. The educational level and general character of the candidates will be important. Unionist need not apply – nor rugby union heroes. Tennis stars and cricketers might be OK (and swimmers).

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:49 pm

  41. This is not the first time that Mr Rudd’s spear carriers in the parliamentary Labor Party have backgrounded journalists. Every time they do it there is another article by another journalist on Labor leadership tensions.

    Before we get all het up about Rudd and his alleged backers, please note that this article by Samantha Maiden is in a Rupert Murdoch tabloid. The Murdoch tabloids, as we all know, uses blatant lies and fiction to further their grubby motives, which include change agenda against governments worldwide which threaten NewsLtd.

    And there is a remarkable coincidence between the appearance of Rudd inventions and the timing of NewsPoll – which is a nuance on the bootstrapping modus operandi which is observable in the Murdoch playbook.

    In short, “don’t believe everything you read in the newspapers”

    by sprocket_ on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:50 pm

  42. s @ 1038

    Part of the problem is that, even when a preference agreement is reached, around 20% of Greens voters stray into supporting the reactionaries thereby shooting themselves and everyone else in the foot.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:51 pm

  43. Doug Cameron is in his own words “angry” – seems like too many losses are taking it’s toll, not happy at all about the uranium decision

    by womble on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:52 pm

  44. d @ 1039

    Let’s assume that your class analysis of Greens voters is correct.

    Doesn’t it reinforce the view that by dividing the centre left vote into competing parties they reduce their capacity to have an impact on the outcomes the centre left achieves?

    For example, if all Greens supporters were in the Labor Party today, and if they had all had an impact in selecting delegates, mightn’t they have made the difference in stopping uranium exports to India?

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:56 pm

  45. Scorpio

    The most severely affected Labor Government by Greens preferences was the Goss government (YES with Mr RUDD closely involved). Labor lost on green votes (the Koala seats). I think their leader at the time Drew Hutton exemplifies what I am saying about the middle class nature of the Greens.

    Here in Qld the typical Green candidate will b e the local Dr or vet.

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:56 pm

  46. womble

    Again we are in agreement.

    Puff @1017

    Agree with your post as well.

    Interesting how close all the votes have been at this conference. In my days as a delegate the margins were roughly Right 2/3 and Left 1/3

    by MTBW on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:56 pm

  47. w

    It is good to see some gut anger flowing from the juices.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:57 pm

  48. Breaking News from the ALP NC – Kieran Gilbert needs to go to the toilet

    LOL live TV at it’s best

    by Bob Katter’s Hat on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:58 pm

  49. BW

    Actually NO under the current ALP structure. If all the greens joined Labor Branches it would not have changes the conference delegate balance. If all the Greens joined unions and became union delegates THEN it might have made a difference.

    by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:59 pm

  50. d

    I don’t know how the delegates are chosen.

    If what you say is 100% correct then I can understand why ordinary centre left supporters feel disenfranchised by the current Labor Party decision-making structure.

    by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 2:01 pm

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