Weekend miscellany
No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Queensland Politics
feeney – ask Kev to stop his supporters leaking and trying to undermine the PM and ask him to work with her regardless of how slighted he still feels (as he said to Paul Kelly last week).
by BH on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:01 pm
Carey Moore,
You better make it to the next SA Chapter of PBérs meet & greet or you will be in trouble!
Just being a bit shy won’t cut it with your fellow Bludgers in SA.
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:03 pm
The Repug candidate market tightens further.
Romney 8/11
Gingrich 11/8
by Diogenes on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Dio @ 1252
Inspiring stuff.
Is that all there is?
by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Scorpio, I promise here right now (It’s a gospel, core promise) that, if I am free for the meetup (ie doesn’t clash with any responsibilities and I am in Adelaide at the time) I will attend the next meetup!
by Carey Moore on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Scorps,
My son had the Samsung Tab which was better and cheaper than the iPad. Now he has an Asus Tablet and he bought a attachable keyboard for it.
I won’t be going for the iPhone but I think I will be using the Andriod o/s. I like the phone you had, and also will be looking at the HTC.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Ltep,
He’s very flexible is our Ruddster. An important quality in a leader. Helps in keeping up with moving trends etc!
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:07 pm
BW, your OH is a very observant lady
by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Can any media genious explain how Kevin Rudd or anyone else get to be PM before 2013?
Labor “right” are solid behind the PM, Sam Maiden sad so, it must be true. The left support the person in the job, so how does anyone force a vote?
by ruawake on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:08 pm
BW
Yep, that’s it. Either Romney or Gingrich. Ron Paul is the third favorite.
Iowa Caucus is 3 Jan so it’s too late for a newbie.
by Diogenes on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Afternoon.
Been watching the Labor conference on and off today. Congratulations to Labor for having such a open debate on core subjects such a uranium and Gay marriage. I have enjoyed the very mature debate. Now the Libs have some work today to reach this standard.
The greens on the other hand are so secretive with there conference they make Mossad seem open and democratic by comparison.
by rummel on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Asus tablet + keyboard dock.
http://www.jbhifi.com.au/computers/tablet/eee-pad-asus/transformer-32gb-tablet-keyboard-dock-sku-69147/
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:10 pm
rummel
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:11 pm
The Liberals’ continued existence relies on keeping well below that standard.
by Kersebleptes on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Mrs Scorpio has one. That’s what I used to follow PB for the past three weeks.
It doesn’t recognise Gravatars or screen names very well though, well not the ones via Twitter or web pages.
Also doesn’t do PB in pages so 4,000 odd comments takes a bit of scrolling through.
It’s great for photo’s, e-mail and multiple other functions as it also uses Android.
Mrs Scorpio loves it but more for its “reader”function.
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:13 pm
Kerse,
The Libs can’t get to far above their voters. Anyway, livestreaming a conference would overload the tin cans on strings.-
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
The smartphone is getting too smart for my liking. it starts to treat the stoopid human disdainfully. but i still can take out the battery
41 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:14 pm
feeney @ 1242
As I see it, the matter has to be resolved by those two individuals.
I was always taught in relation to sport to be generous in victory and magnanimous in defeat. The same could be said of politics.
Gillard needs to go out of her way to be generous to Rudd, in an obvious way, and Rudd needs to reciprocate by being magnaminous and clearly accepting what happened.
More joint appearances and campaigning together in Qld might be a good start.
They can do it!
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Tom the first and best – After the last Victorian State Election in which the Liberals nearly won Albert Park. I tried to match all the Melbourne Ports booths to see what would happen without the Danby factor in the Jewish community.
This was made harder by the VEC not using all the same booths that the AEC uses but based on the numbers, the ALP would have held Melbourne Ports by over 1000 votes.
Of course this was very unscientific and flawed due to the Melbourne Ports area covering four state seats.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:15 pm
We’ll just have to wait and see what happens in Iowa. The Iowa caucuses are a funny thing. Like the Papal conclave in a way, that you have no idea what is gonna happen.
If Romney wins Iowa, he’ll be the nominee. He’s certain to do well in NH, he doesn’t need to perform that well in SC and is putting a lot of himself in Florida – which will pay off if he starts off sprinting.
If Gingrich does, it’s going to open the race wide open. Romney will be racing to Florida to try and keep himself alive there, Gingrich will bypass NH and go to SC and probably win and try and get that momentum into Florida then into Super Tuesday.
The other thing to watch is who comes second overall. It could be a good indicator of who may be their nominee in 2016, if Obama wins next year.
It’s also entirely possible that if Gingrich does not win the nomination, he’ll be in the front seat to be picked as VP running mate, especially if it’s with someone like Romney.
by Carey Moore on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Puff
Good on you. I am sure you will be a wonderful contributor,
What are you thinking os studying.
I am glad mari
Threw in
that, as it occurred to any one that the rudd thing
Is just paper talk, I hope so .
In he days of the truth newspaper, ‘”just paper talk_,”
Was one of my dads favourite sayings
by my say on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:15 pm
rummy, ssshhhhhhhhhh. please be gentle with Horsey
by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:16 pm
sCORPS.
Scratch that then, if it ain’t PB friendly, its in the bin.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:16 pm
I made a passing comment on this yesterday. One hundred ships are stuck in the Danube because of low water. No rain in sight. The Czech Republic has just recorded its lowest November rainfall since records began in around 1776.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/drought-traps-ships-on-danube-6271574.html
But wait, there’s more. The European drought of 2011 is having a more general and multifarious drag effect on the European economy.
But remember folks, don’t mention AGW.
by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Carey Moore,
Looking forward to it. Now, if we can only get a similar undertaking from Diog we’ll be really making progress towards a fully functioning SA Chapter of PBérs!
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:18 pm
1259
Gingrich has had campaign troubles earlier in the campaign and his support is only recent so it would seem unlikely that he would have a brilliant caucus campaign where those with more committed support basses do better then those with less committed supporters apparently (adjusted for vote share of course).
I would think that Ron Paul will likely come second in the Iowa Caucus.
by Tom the first and best on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Dio
I’d take Mr Romney. At a pinch.
Cultists at the helm of the world’s biggest economy when the economy has the staggers would be a bit of a worry.
by Boerwar on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Lynelady – just watched the Insiders. Interesting that the video links went each different issue discussed consecutively but, after discussing Swannies’ baby surplus bit, the video totally skipped the discussion on the Lib economic debacle and went to the uranium issue.
I had to go back and click on the relevant Lib piece to be able to see it. Why was it eliminated from the consecutive rolling of the video?
by BH on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Scorp, just dont get into Chapter 11
by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:21 pm
Puff,
That goes for the Galaxy phone also. You wear all the print off your finger scrolling through!
But as a phone or reader, they are exceptional and great value for the money. IMO
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:21 pm
scorpio
You certainly seem to have fired up since that trip to Adelaide.
Was it the good company or the Coopers Pale Ale that did the trick?
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:21 pm
I thknk the pm is gracious to him, at the same time he has to move on and so do queenslanders
Funny mob up there u have a wonderful premier who bent over backwards, the look after u all during and after the floods people have turned their back on her, the pm JG helped you sll to
I think a lot qlds are hypocrite,
Kev was not pm during the floods but he helped
Qcld need to realize. They aust. First a d so do some. wa,s
Wh
by my say on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:21 pm
what Fins…………..
I thought pegasus was celebrating the british coup de grâce by using the name of the famous bridge and was a tad right wing.
my bad
by rummel on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:22 pm
The Finnigans,
On the skull of my father, I swear………..
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:22 pm
Have just watched ch 10 5pm news, and was rewarded Paul B was doing the reporting, showed Kevin Rudd on his speech(see copy of his tweet I posted) was very good, last comment was Julia Gillard will continue as PM and any lingering hope KR has has been dashed(word he used may be different but meant that) all in all very positive, the ALP knows they have to get the people back that thet lost in 2010 and working on it. Put that in your”pipe and smoke it” Samantha M Showed some of the lively(very) debate on U sale to India, which I think was good, shows ALP “allows” difference of opinion
by mari on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:24 pm
my say,
I am doing post-grad psychology, that hopefully will let me into an honours in psych, which is one of the pre-requisites for getting registered. I worked out that at my age, I probably will not get another well-paid job working for a boss anymore with my old quals, so I had better go with my strengths and set out to be self-employed. All in all, it would take five years for me to qualify as a psychologist, but it may also help me get work in the meantime.
,
So as a PBer who has passed one subject of psych with a credit, when i say Tone is as mad as a cut snake….
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Most definitely – altho she gave a lovely credit in the video clips to Kev for his Sorry speech JG did the wrong thing by omitting him from her speech. Not too late to get back on track and it should be done.
I’m with Carey M – changing leaders again is ridiculous.
by BH on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Scorps,
One word.
Barrell.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:25 pm
Romney is the only GOPer with a chance who I would not be scared of in the WH. He’s also the one who I think has the best chance against Obama.
FWIW, I think overall, in the end, Romney will win the primaries, Gingrich will fizzle out quickly, Ron Paul will just be Ron Paul. Perry will have a great showing in the southern and western states and will be in the front seat for the 2016 primary, if Obama wins (his mistakes this time will be forgotten and he’ll have 4 years to refine himself and improve his Iowa cred)
by Carey Moore on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:26 pm
BH didn’t notice that on Insiders, I just went to the title Opposition costing and clicked on that. Lazy arn’t I?
by mari on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:26 pm
@bemused/1267,
No Gillard would then be seen as sucking upto Rudd.
by zoidlord on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:27 pm
Puff good luck with your studies
What treatment do you recommend for our Tone
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:27 pm
bemused,
Doctor Diogenes prescribed copious quantities of Coopers Pale Ale to alleviate all symptoms of extreme melancholy.
To be administered internally of course!
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:28 pm
It’s funny, I prefer to call members of the GOP “GOPers” rather than “Republicans.” Maybe I feel the latter is an insult to republicanism.
by Carey Moore on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Boerwar – OH watched that on telly last night and was stunned into silence for awhile. It sort of incomprehensible. The Danube has had a sort of romantic feel about it my whole life. Very sad but hey …. CC is not an issue. Just ask Barnaby Joyce.
by BH on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:29 pm
1268
And if you put results from the Commonwealth Elections to the state boundaries then you get the ALP winning Caulfield which they did not even do in the 2002 land slide.
by Tom the first and best on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:29 pm
mexicanbeamer,
We could try Childhood Regression and Reorientation Therapy. We put him under and take him back to his childhood and not rever him as God’s gift to humanity.
Otherwise, 40 years in the desert until he finds the promised land. It may not fix him but at least the rest of us will be safe.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:31 pm
I have just read William’s article about polling in Bruce and Chisholm and I would not be surprised but both those seats are rather polar as in they both have strong ALP areas and strong Liberal Party areas.
For example in Chisholm Box Hill has a slight ALP lean with a stronger ALP vote in the southern end yet the Liberals do very well around Mont Albert
Bruce is a tale of two cities with a strong Liberal vote in the northern half around Wheelers Hill yet the ALP dominate the southern half around Noble Park.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:32 pm
Gillard should give the Europeans a copy of the Draft Murray Darling plan as a guide to save the river. Worked wonders here with all the rain we have since had since its release.
by rummel on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:32 pm
@Puff/1285,
As someone starting uni next year, what’s the study/assignment/exam load like?
I know you’re do something totally different, but it be good to get some other feedback.
by zoidlord on Dec 4, 2011 at 5:32 pm