Weekend miscellany
No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Queensland Politics
that was the whole idea of the conscience vote MTBW – to not bind people to the vote
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:42 am
womble
Just realised that myself after I wrote it. Thanks!
by MTBW on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:45 am
This outcome reminds me of the Constitutional Convention when Howard was forced to concede that there should be a Referendum on the Republic but skewered it at the same time by placing the different models on the question paper.
This time Gillard has conceeded the concept of Homosexual Marriage but skewered its prospects of being implemented by the conscience vote. The only way it gets up is if the Libs and Nats split. Given Abbott’s vociferous opposition this would be a severe blow to his leadership and creibility.
Gillard proves once again she is way ahead of Abbott on tactics and negotiating skills.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:45 am
Arbib’s position makes more sense now
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:47 am
I think Gillard actually supports it but has been well aware of the damage it might do to their hold on government if 2 members crossed the floor and were expelled from the party.
by joe2 on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:47 am
As I watch the ALP National Conference streaming on the Internet I am struck by how vastly different it is to the one I dropped into for a while as a visitor back in 1968 (I think). That was a long while ago now so I don’t remember all that much in detail and I was only there a short time.
That conference was in the Chevron Hotel in Melbourne and it was a much smaller conference than the one on now. I may be wrong, I don’t recall there being a single female delegate there, let alone any woman being in a prominent role. I recall it as a relatively small gathering of middle aged to elderly men and all rather boring but with a lot of intrigue going on in the corridors and smoky rooms.
Who says the ALP does not an cannot reform?
The Conference this weekend shows the remarkable changes since that 1968 conference. Most striking is the prominent roles held by women. We have a woman chairing the conference (and doing a great job) some great women delegates like Penny Wong, Lisa Singh, Tania Plibersek for example.
The other striking change is the openness of the conference. It is not shut away behind closed doors but is being televised, warts and all, for anyone interested to see.
Yes, there are further reforms that need to be made. Society is always changing and any progressive party must adapt to remain relevant. Bring on the reform debate!
Compared to the efforts of the secretive and conspiratorial greens and the stagnation and negative of the Libs behind closed doors, this conference is remarkable.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:48 am
Rox
I agree with you it is disappointing that the PM chose the path she did.
by MTBW on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:49 am
Laocoon
Posted Saturday, December 3, 2011 at 11:30 am | Permalink
mari @111
For those conservatives looking for a policy agenda, they were presented with one in the last sitting week – a thoughtful and comprehensive program for reform and innovation from newly minted Liberal senator, Arthur Sinodinos.
For a long time Howard’s most trusted staffer, Sinodinos painted an Australia where education is king, not afraid of growth and keen to tackle productivity reforms, including the feared workplace relations agenda.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/all-eyes-on-abbott-as-libs-view-change/story-fn6ck620-1226212711191
Aside from the temporary inconvience of being in the wrong house, I dont see why Sinodinos is not seen as a potential Liberal leader. I havent heard/read this speech, but it has been approvingly noted in a number of media
I agree with your comments, and even more interesting is MT now on about a conscience vote(mind you in his electorate he would be a fool not to) think some of the others will realise they have been wedged, I think there will be a massive backflip by Abbott written up by Michelle G as “realignment” or whatever she excused him with
Off now as have just waited around for the vote, now late
by mari on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:51 am
Good observations bemused
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:51 am
bemused
Do you know when the reform debate is due?
by MTBW on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:52 am
would be interesting to know how many Labor members will vote against the change??? – it’s good listening to Stephen Smith talking about how his position has evolved over time and he will now support it
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:53 am
Congratulations, JULIA
We are so proud of you, I know of parents, friends of ours labor voters
W ho will now feel, their son, and they have their dignity,
Let others walk in their shoes, who critiscise, and call people names.
Thank you labor, u very rarely let us down.
by my say on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:54 am
ABC report
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-03/labor-votes-for-conscience-vote-on-same-sex-marriage/3710828
Nine
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8384050/labor-backs-gay-marriage
by Leroy on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:54 am
Bemused’
Agree. Truly remarkable.
by my say on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:56 am
womble
The SDA and the AWU might be a starting point. I agree with you on Smith he has integrity.
by MTBW on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:56 am
george @ 158
Thanks george. I thought that bit of history might place things in perspective.
MTBW @ 159
Sorry, don’t know. Probably an agenda on the website.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:57 am
by victoria on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:57 am
interesting theory Bemused – it’s great that Labor have changed over time, well done on that BUT are they just keeping up with society or leading change in the way they should be???
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:58 am
Really? What proof do you have that this is so?
by Gary on Dec 3, 2011 at 11:58 am
I don’t see why leading the society is any better than keeping up with it. Same result.
by Gary on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:00 pm
Historic day for Australia.
Australian Labor becomes the first major party to back marriage equality.
Congratulations to the Prime Minister, the Hon Julia Gillard MP, for allowing the debate to come forward and everyone was able to share their views openly.
This is democracy at work.
The ball is now firmly in the Abbott Coalition’s court. Will the supposedly “free” Liberal Party be able to vote freely on this issue as well?
Despite disagreeing with the Prime Minister’s personal views on this topic, I welcome her fair and open approach to the issue. I also welcome the way she has played the politics of it too — she has not been offensive and now it is only the Liberals who are “wedged”.
Only Abbott and his party can play football with gay and lesbian Australians now. Anyone in favour of marriage equality should write to their Liberal National MP or Senator and demand a free vote.
This will test Abbott — is his party really now taken over by the Bernadi Tea Party Right — or do “moderate Liberals” with live and let live principles still exist?
Time will tell.
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:00 pm
my say @ 161 & 163
You did very well with your post 161.
I remember one of the delegates from that 1968 conference was ‘electric Eric’ Reece from Tasmania. Thought that might interest you.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:00 pm
She chose that path because she believes in it. Isn’t that what we here argue people should do?
by Gary on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:02 pm
by Leroy on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:03 pm
The pressure will now be on the Abbott Party. And it will come from within as much as from its critics.
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:03 pm
womble @ 167
I thought it was observations rather than theory.
I suppose there is kind of a feedback loop. The party tries to change society but is also changed by society as it changes. If that’s not confusing.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:03 pm
Looking at the pure politics of the conscience vote, isn’t the government now in a position to reap some reward from the gay community for at least advancing the cause (even though it probably won’t pass the parliament yet), while the Libs are left looking like the bunch of reactionaries they have always been?.
by Darn on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Yes, this will be fun
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Gary
She may well believe in it and that is her prerogative but it is also our prorogative to disagree with that decision when we have our own beliefs.
by MTBW on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:06 pm
Gary @ 169
Not at all. Leading means you change society in what you regard as positive ways. Keeping up means… well, keeping up even with what Howard did to society.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:06 pm
Darren – snap! Here’s Andrew Crook’s spin on it.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2011/12/03/text-labors-gay-marriage-stoush/
ALP National Conference backs Gillard on gay marriage
December 3, 2011 – 9:19 am, by Andrew Crook
The ALP’s 46th National Conference has decided to allow a conscience vote on gay marriage, with delegates voting 208 to 184 to permit conservative MPs to discriminate against same sex couples.
A separate amendment to Labor’s platform proposed by Andrew Barr and Penny Wong to explicity recognise same sex tie-ups was carried on the voices. However, that victory is purely symbolic — when a bill on the issue is introduced next year the Coalition will team with ALP Groupers to shoot it down.]
More in the article.
by Leroy on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:06 pm
womble
As mentioned by Tanya Piblersek today, the Labor govt has passed countless pieces of legislation ending discrimination. Marriage equality is the next step.
by victoria on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:07 pm
As a gay Australian, I am very proud of Labor today.
But I have noticed others are still not 100% happy and claimed they’d leave Labor over this. I have explained that doing that only helps Abbott and hands Labor over to the people they supposedly disagree with most!
Only Labor can deliver on progressive politics — Greens cannot form government. It will be a good look too if it is indeed a Labor backbencher that moves the private member’s bill.
I think most will eventually come to realise this. And yes, many should return their primary vote to Labor by 2013.
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:08 pm
fair point Bemused – nice observations
personally i’d rather a party that leads change rather than follows it but there is obviously a balance that needs to be maintained
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:08 pm
True but some seem to be saying she did the wrong thing. Well she didn’t. She just didn’t agree with those people which as you say ‘is her prerogative’. She shouldn’t be criticised, nor should you, for having a different opinion.
by Gary on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:09 pm
Interesting tweet from PvO. I’d love to know who the Liberals are who support marriage equality.
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:09 pm
Darn, possibly, but I have one recent experience with a gay couple we often have dinner with. The topic of gay marriage came up and I asked them if they would vote for Labor (they are Liberal supporters) if Labor were to bring this in. The answer was “no” – they support Liberal policies but know that only a Labor government could possibly deliver this for their community. Nice.
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Let’s hope people keep the pressure up on them. Understandably advocates are also going to keep pressuring Labor to vote yes on the conscience vote, but that pressure should go in both directions.
by rishane on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:10 pm
vic
He said that he’d look at it if it came up yesterday. He didn’t rule out a conscience vote this time, although he has ruled out one before.
He’ll be under a lot of pressure from small l liberals to allow one.
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:11 pm
Would some one mind putting a link to the conference on the labor site or apac please,
I refuse to watch abc, ,
Thank u in advance
by my say on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:11 pm
The Greens’ actions suggest to me they don’t want Assange to face sexual assault charges. Why on earth not?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-03/greens-ask-for-any-secret-assange-documents/3710668
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:12 pm
I think there is about four from memory (on the record at least).
Walsher and Entsch I think — cannot recall the other two.
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:12 pm
mari @ 157
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/all-eyes-on-abbott-as-libs-view-change/story-fn6ck620-1226212711191
Thinking a bit more on this article’s argument on Robb, and just doing some “politics by numbers”:
In 2013, assuming that is the election, Robb will be 62 years of age.
No primeminister has been first elected at this age (the oldest was Chifley at 60).
And only 2 PMs became PM at ages older than 60 – McEwen at 67 post Holt disappearance and McMahon at 63.
by Laocoon on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:13 pm
If society changes it’s view on a particular issue surely it is a clever party that changes with it over time just as it is clver to try and change views if possible. I don’t see why one way is better than the other.
by Gary on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:13 pm
by Leroy on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:13 pm
Darren
I was impressed by the passion in most of the pro arguements put. A great day for all involved in the great outcome.
by MTBW on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:13 pm
my say:
You can watch online at the ALP website. http://www.alp.org.au/
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:14 pm
Laocoon
JBishop was not mentioned in that article as a possible leader
by victoria on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:14 pm
I think they’re about as endangered as the Orange-bellied Parrot
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:14 pm
what I have found laughable as usual is how the usual suspects in the msm have been predicting doom and gloom for the PM at this conference.
by victoria on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:15 pm