Weekend miscellany
No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Queensland Politics
It’s all very well for people to say that the PM should change her mind or show here true views on gay marriage.
From memory, she said before the last election that the government would not be changing the law. Can you imagine the chorus of “Juliar” that would be generated if she changed now, and this would actually have MORE justification than the carbon tax imbroglio.
It would just not be sensible in political terms, whatever she “really” thinks.
Now the pressure goes on the Fibs. As I’ve said before, there’s an awful lot of politically conservative gay people. One of the few things that might prise some of them away from the Fibs is this issue. I predict as many abstentions as are necessary to get the bill through.
by ajm on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:15 pm
bemused @ 155
Thanks for that.
Watched the vote on SSM on ABC24. Remarkable!
Hearts on sleeves. For all to see … not a ciggie or a cardigan in sight.
Do the Libs have a national conference and, if so, will it be broadcast live? From the cave?
by Scringler on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:16 pm
MT I can understand, but the other two?
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:16 pm
confessions @ 190
Well, for a start he hasn’t been charged.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:17 pm
It’s disgusting. The Greens of all parties should be backing any efforts that ensure all those who are accused of rape and other sexual assault must face court.
To think the Greens attack Sweden over this is utterly ridiculous! The right wingers must be wetting themselves with laughter seeing the far left go after women’s rights and Sweden, home of genuine sex equality, like this!
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:17 pm
“Why on earth not?”
Maybe they think he will be handed on to the Americans, regardless of any sexual assault conviction, which is fairly likely.
by joe2 on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:18 pm
fess,
You may not be surprised that the name Turnbull pops up.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbull-splits-on-gay-marriage/story-fn59niix-1226201822162
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Well he should at least face questioning — why would you run away from police questioning in a place like Sweden? It is not Iran for heaven’s sake.
If he did not agree with the laws and processes of the Kingdom of Sweden then he should never have visited there.
Why he is seeking refuge in the United Kingdom, home of the Blair Iraq War dossier, is beyond me.
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Scringler
Them were the days!
by MTBW on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:19 pm
confessions
Joe Hockey is meant to be the leader of the Liberal moderate faction in NSW.
Hard to tell these days given the fact his spine is clearly made of jelly
by spur212 on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:20 pm
by victoria on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:20 pm
Victoria I was impressed with Tanya’s speech, she was spot on – shame they didn’t get the votes they needed
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:21 pm
confessions – Andrew Elder may mean their electorates or internal supporters, not their own views.
by Leroy on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:21 pm
victoria @ 197
Yes, quite a common sense article in many ways
by Laocoon on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:21 pm
womble
What to do you mean? The party platform has now been changed in support of same sex marriage.
by victoria on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:22 pm
Darren
Wiki lists Entsch, Gambaro, Washer and Moylan as being pro-SSM.
I’d be very surprised if Turnbull doesn’t join that group.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Australia#Federal_parliamentarians_who_publicly_support_gay_marriage
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:22 pm
The way GetUp are carrying on, you’d think it was them solely responsible for Labor changing its platform.
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:23 pm
Simon Birmingham is another Lib pro-SSM.
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:24 pm
In which case, I really don’t understand Hockey and Markus.
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:24 pm
Bemused, I remember eric reece, very well indeed,
I have to drive past his old home every time i visit my daughter,
Sadly we have no leadership here since mr, lenno n left,
You will know what I mean if you go to the mercury web site and read about the, travel problems
The flipant answer from the touisim minister is a disgrace,
To think we have to pay more to get to Melbourne than ,mainlanders have to pay to go to bali
So many people in our case with baby george each month have n choice
But the liberals are NO better, I wrote to all parties including members o all sides
no repies. Bui suppose at ele tion time i will get the usual phone call re
How to vote cards,
I know u cannot make bigbusi ess do things but at the very least one could try,
It does not effect them personally, but my golly it effects the states revenue re tourism
What is wrong with these people we need a new premier quick smart
Mr Lennon had his critics but he would not stand for this
by my say on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:25 pm
I am genuinely surprised by that!
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Getup are overated (by them, ALP & LNP) opportunists. Not that they don’t have some real effect, but people mistakenly see their influence everywhere. An example is when lefties spam a RW website, or call shockjokes “Getup activists” are blamed.
by Leroy on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:26 pm
correct Victoria, on the voices as well – great result, having a conscience vote on it means that the most likely outcome is that the marriage act won’t change – net end result is a bad one no matter how much people try and talk up the change
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:26 pm
Carney ends today’s article thus:
… which of course begs the question to be asked: “Why should the government be punished for this?”
When Rudd and Swan tried to introduce the original RSPT – a measure designed to spread the new wealth around – Australians one and all (just about) ganged together to condemn the government for killing the goose that laid the golden egg.
Now that the government has toned the RSPT down into the MRRT, but just as another shitstorm is about to hit us, this time from Europe, and now that we’ve seen Swan’s predictions of huge mining profits come to fruition (another thing he got right), the punters are all for a mining tax. They want a stronger MRRT, in fact.
Everyone – bar none – took the money when the $900 cheques were handed out. They spent it in shops which were duly grateful for the stimulus. Even Gerry Harvey – once – said it was great and good-on the government for it.
Then the BER came along and single-handedly saved the construction industry.
But given a chance to whinge and nitpick, your Aussie voter doesn’t need much prompting to start moaning about “waste”. Not that the “waste” was much, mind you… less than 0.5%… but, having survived GFC-1 they started listening to professional doomsayers in the media and from the Coalition who told us we were doing it tougher than we ought to be doing. No-one read the various reports that backed up the government’s claims that the program had been a success. They just wanted to whinge. Having convinced themselves that they’d survived GFC-1 by dint of their own efforts, they mocked the government for helping bludgers, pokie addicts and greedy project management companies while they themselves did it tough, pulling themselves through by their own bootlaces.
They criticised the government for having no surplus, even though a surplus is but the tip of the iceberg in fiscal terms (with the vast majority of the nation’s economy under the surface), but now they’re demanding a deficit. There’s a chance that GFC-2 might be on the way and everyone wants to be in the lifeboat.
When it’s over, they’ll go back to mocking Swan and watching for waste.
We are a nation of whingers and wowsers. We moan about the smallest mistake or irregularity, and we like to kick the heads of those less fortunate than ousrelves, ascribing to them moral inferiority to make our own miserable lives feel slightly better.
Who’d even want to try to pander to this fickle mob of ingrates? They have convinced themselves, on literally no evidence, that the other mob, the Coalition would magically do better. They could balance the budget. They could produce surpluses by “cuts”. Yet when the government makes very small MYEFO cuts, 10% of those the Coalition are bragging about, the wailing and gnashing of teeth of those “hit” can be heard for miles. If $7 billion in cuts from Swan is a national disaster what would $70 billion be from Jor Hockey? No-one cares.
Carney could point a lot of this out more forcefully than he does, but he’s a Coalition man. He wrote the book on Costello, and believes no-one is listening to the government anymore, so why should he?
The patrician Carney wafts the rose water under his nose and talks of the stench coming up from the streets below, but he does nothing about it other than to say, with mock concern, “Such a pity. Such a pity.”
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/looking-for-bubble-in-alps-toil-and-trouble-20111202-1obiq.html#ixzz1fQcef5VJ
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:26 pm
That occurred to me, too. An epiphany, talked around by the strength of debate during the bill’s passage would look good, especially as the Coalition votes “Nay” as a block.
Will some from the Opposition cross the floor?
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:28 pm
Thanks Dio.
As I said, this issue will split the Abbott Coalition more than it does Labor.
Remember, even 50% (vs 44%) of Coalition voters support same sex marriage. This proportion will be much higher in city based Liberal seats like North Sydney, Wentworth and Brisbane, for example, than the rural and reactionary National electorates.
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:29 pm
although i do sincerely hope i’m wrong and the numbers are there on the floor of the parliament for change
bring on the asylum seeker debate although i think the result will be even worse
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:30 pm
Love it BB
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:30 pm
confessions@190
Maybe you should….oh I dunno, read the next paragraph and the following quotes from Scott Ludlam?
by p m z on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:31 pm
Turnball and Broadbent would cross the floor, perhaps.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:31 pm
[The Greens’ actions suggest to me they don’t want Assange to face sexual assault charges. Why on earth not?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-03/greens-ask-for-any-secret-assange-documents/3710668
From what I understand, their position is that they think if found guilty he’ll somehow be extradited from there to America and tortured, or something. I’m not sure how valid an argument it is, but that’s the position. Of course, I find the tendency of some on the left to celebrate Assange so much kinda ironic given he’s sexist and emphatically not a leftist. (he’s on record as having claimed that left-wing governments haven’t thought things through.)
by rishane on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Some here never miss the opportunity to bag the greens or get up, regardless of how tenuous the connection. It is really quite silly when the common enemy is actually the same..Abbott.
by joe2 on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Someone has stolen my joke about the DPRK — the one I used on Evan2GB who had to insert “Labor” into his name because no-one would have guessed otherwise…!
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Darren
These are the results from Hockey, Gambaro and Turnbull’s polling in their electorates.
Malcolm Turnbull: 75% of electorate support full marriage equality
Teresa Gambaro: 73% of electorate support full marriage equality
Joe Hockey: 78% of young voters support full marriage equality
http://www.australianmarriageequality.com/wp/2011/10/26/ofarrell-would-allow-conscience-vote-on-gay-marriage/
TLM
Turnbull isn’t allowed to cross the floor, unless there is a conscience vote. Gambaro, Moylan and Washer can.
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:35 pm
When was the last sighting? Might be a couple struggling on impotently but, basically, the species is extinct.
by Scringler on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Julia has, imho demonstrated her formidable skills as a master negotiator and an astute political tactician…
She hasn’t demanded that her views on SSM should become a ‘test’ of her authority within the ALP…rather she has accepted the prevailing view that it should form part of the ALP platform…and now it does.
The conscience vote does two things….
1) Ensures that ALL viewpoints are taken into account…and avoids an ongoing stoush which will inevitably be payed out in the media as….”Govt in Dis-array/about to crumble/angry MPs threatening to cross the floor…” You all know the routine…
2) Puts the spotlight onto the Coalition and whether or not they will support a conscience vote on the issue…
Well done Julia and the team…
by markjs on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:36 pm
My computer is telling me i have virtual low memory
What shall I do. Do indeed to get rid of files
by my say on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:37 pm
rishane he is an obnoxious prat. That does not mean he deserves to rot in an American jail.
by joe2 on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:37 pm
Plus at least four others as has been pointed out.
Liberals in metro electorates in particular will feel the pinch on this issue.
O’Dwyer in Higgins would be surprised to learn how widespread support for marriage equality is there, for example.
Not to mention seats like North Sydney, Wentworth, Brisbane, Bradfield, Kooyong, Curtin etc
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Yer, I reckon she is always strategically thinking and will avoid a labor in house fight. The Libs will now be forced to confront the issue.
by joe2 on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:41 pm
Are you on windows xp? You might not have enough ram in your system and hence the pagefile is getting quite large, or you have a memory leak from one of your programs.
Try opening up the windows task manage, click on View > Select Options, click “virtual memory” and take a look at all the running apps and compare “Mem Usage” with “VM Size”
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Thanks again Dio.
As I say, this issue is actually a huge problem for the Liberal Party and its future.
While Abbott/Bernadi have been courting the bogan populists, it has forgotten about its heartland in the well-to-do city seats who have moved to the “left” on issues like marriage equality.
Tereasa Gambaro in particular is in a marginal seat, Brisbane. If the Libs want to win govt she must retain her seat in 2013. So she is not stupid to support marriage equality and will insist in the party-room that she be allowed to do so for her won survival.
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@vanOnselenP The Coalition a broad church? more like a midnight cult meeting by the graveyard
5 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:42 pm
What was the motion Tania. P, put up that did not have the numbers
by my say on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:43 pm
Firefox browser has been leaking memory like a sieve lately. i am very disappointed with Mozilla.
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:44 pm
Go Clarkey, get your century and i will forgive you.
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Yes, I realise that. It says so in the article.
However, I do not view this as a valid reason to try to prevent someone being extradited to face sexual assault charges.
It is a bad look for the Greens.
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:46 pm
In fact, it was Green’s prefences that put Gamabro in!
Primary votes for Labor and the Greens were over 50% in Brisbane (51.7%), but the leakage from Bartlett to Gamabro ensured she beat Bevis.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/bris.htm
Interesting seat to watch in 2013.
by Darren Laver on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Finns, classic
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Turnbull cannot cross the floor as a frontbencher.
Broadbent is opposed to marriage equality.
by confessions on Dec 3, 2011 at 12:47 pm