Weekend miscellany
No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Queensland Politics
I am sure aspire is the operative word.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 5:48 pm
Thanks for the prompt lizzie
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 5:48 pm
Womble I do hope you are still around to read my post, and freds and bem used
All will be well with on shore, I think fred expresses it berrer than I have a read
by my say on Dec 3, 2011 at 5:49 pm
nah, it’s a cinch
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Gotta like the optimism of Channel 7… Riley tells us that any more progress on gay marriage is ‘unlikely’ and that Labor’s going to lose votes over their decision today, when they already ‘don’t have many to lose’.
by rishane on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:05 pm
rishane
Riley is a very unfunny comedian.
by BK on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:07 pm
I know! I still recall his description of Oakeshott and Windsor as ‘barbarians’.
by rishane on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Hi Scorps,
It was wonderful to meet you, and all the other fantastic bludgers, I will have my T-shirt with dragon, thanks! I really enjoyed the meeting.
I felt quite honoured to be in the presence of people who have really been at the coalface of progressive politics.
I am not forgetting Political Animal, the Brew Master.
Brighton Sailing Club is a nice place. My son sails with another club, in a catamaran. It is quite a relaxing day to sit on the balcony and watch the various craft come in, especially all the sprogs in their little boats.
Scorps, I can imagine downing a few Coopers by the sea being a great send off.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:11 pm
I read this and guess what I should have fixed firmly in my non typing hand?
And it is very refreshing after time on the roof fixing the spout in the sun.
by joe2 on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:14 pm
For Lizzie/BB:
http://tinyurl.com/cdvf57t
by george on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:19 pm
I can’t see the disclaimer working too well. The ABC’s policy covers personal communications which bring the ABC into disrepute and the tweet clearly does that.
I don’t understand the “boo you whore” reference to the film Mean Girls but bad taste, stupid jokes aren’t a great look either.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/triple-js-stinging-sledge-on-julia-and-tim/story-e6frea6u-1226212153057
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Norty george.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:21 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-02/crabb-labor-left-and-right-make-for-queer-bedfellows/3708072
Annabel Crabb illustrates her stupidy. The Left wing of the Labor party has never challenged a sitting leader, it probably never will. It is left faction practice to support the current leader.
That the ABC’s chief online political writer fails to realise this is a reflection on the ABC.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:28 pm
Actually, that Triple J thing raises an interesting issue.
As a hypothetical, imagine Frank Calabrese worked for the WA Dept of Transport, perhaps in issuing drivers licenses. If Frank severely criticised Barnett using strong swearing, could he be disciplined for bringing his workplace into disrepute, even if 99.99% of people didn’t know he worked there?
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:28 pm
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/gay-marriage-debate-shifts-to-abbott-20111203-1oc3a.html
by rishane on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:28 pm
George!
Oh what truly frightening thoughts that has caused…
by Laocoon on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:29 pm
Couple of Greek cartons -
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/whos-paying1.gif
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/greek-theater.gif
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:29 pm
Its the same old meme. If conference is in *agreement* its a stitch up. If there is genuine debate, the party is divided and in turmoil.
AFR today had about 3 pages or so with much the same meme.
Yawn. Time for a VB.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:33 pm
dave
I can’t understand why the German taxpayers aren’t going berserk.
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:34 pm
Why aren’t the votes at the Convention secret ballots? I can’t understand when votes are secret and when they aren’t.
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:36 pm
if you were asked 12 months ago – “in 12 months time a political party will lock offshore processing into it’s core beliefs, which party do you think that will be???” how many would’ve answered Labor???
yes I accept that the tragedy on Christmas Island changed some people’s points of view but all it really did was put a visible face on what’s been happening for centuries – i.e. people dying whilst escaping to a better life
the answer isn’t to outsource our responsibilities to the third world, it’s to work with them to provide genuine alternatives. I’d also like to see more publicity around the dangers of the journey to try and put people off making it – although in the end that is their choice
like I said earlier, offshore processing is an expensive nonsense – we’re lucky to have the Greens voting with the Liberals and being supported by the courts to prevent it happening – the big hope is it stays that way long enough for people to realise it’s the way it should be
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:37 pm
The Finnigans,
You’d probably need lots of that SA wine to fortify you enough to handle that Finns!
Besides, I think Diog likes being like the Ghost Who Walks. Tormenting people’s imaginations about whether or not he really does resemble Brad Pitt or not!
I’m sworn over my father’s skull not to divulge the secrets of the deep south!
by scorpio on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:38 pm
Dio @ 468
Where would they direct their anger?
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Diog
I think that most large companies and Govt Depts and agencies have guidelines for social media. In fact I am pretty sure the ABC does.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:43 pm
zoomster,
A tad arrogant.
Strawmen that supporters and members of the major political parties always bring up as a distraction and generalised attack on all Greens supporters and members – all 1.7 million (or thereabouts) of them.
These attacks invariably ocur when they can not dispassionately analyse, in depth, Greens Party’s evidence-based policies.
If by innuendo and generalised smear you are implying that I accuse others of hackery and blind loyalty then prove it by finding any posts in which I have made that accusation. You will not.
Cherry picking without putting that issue into context of the reasons why the Greens have the position that they do.
I can cherry pick too.
After four years in government Labor hasn’t even got rid of the coercive powers of the former ABCC (another name, still exists) and continues to discriminate against a specific group of workers.
The Greens are the only party that has fought against it.
After four years in power Labor has not even raised the level of income support for the unemployed, a level that is so low even conservative economists are calling for it to be increased.
The Greens are the only party that continue to fight for the poor and disadvantaged and persistently call for the reining in and abolition of upper and middle class welfare.
The Greens support policies that, for example, advocate for big business like the polluting industries and mining industries – industries that reap huge profits – to contribute a reasonable level of taxation which can then be re-distributed to areas such as public education, public health and public transport – all for the common ‘good’.
Etc, etc, etc.
by Pegasus on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:44 pm
Federal elections in 2012 in Germany I believe.
Thats the hurdle for other members of the EU as well because Italy & Greece have just had governments appointed not elected with the main aim of protecting Banks, their shareholders & bond holders.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Finny
Scorps is right. In the deep south, we have barrells of ways to deal with divulgers of secrets.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon,
Hi Puff, I got a great picture from the balcony looking back towards Brighton & Glenelg.
I’ll send it you. Are you still up for getting George to do a suitable memento of the meeting?
I’ll have to get the photos to him to do his magic with them. Also I gotta see if he can insert a picture of me to complete the group!
by scorpio on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Horsey @ 474
That has been noticed.
Add to the growing list…
‘Too much cherry picking’.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:47 pm
Most Labor ballots are show and tell. Union elections have different rules.
Show and tell means people cannot say they backed the winning side after voting for the loser.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:48 pm
Thank you, George. Brilliant.
by lizzie on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Hi Scorps! Hope you are still about.
It was great to meet you and, I agree, a Bludger T-shirt would be THE desirable attire for this coming summer amongst political tragics who know a good discussion forum when they see it
Great to see the marriage equality debate done and dusted … for now. As I was watching it today, it actually occurs to me that Julia – being the strategic, long-game player she is – may have actually planned this all along.
1) get the Right faction on-side by sounding personally conservative enough to ensure their ongoing support;
2) get the Left faction on-side by engineering a clever compromise so marriage equality is formalised as ALP policy;
3) cleverly wedges to Liberal Party so that, going forward to the legislation (and ultimately, the election) it becomes about THEM and THEIR position; and
4) ensures she is seen as holding sway and commanding the respect of the ALP rank and file.
If you think about today in those terms, she has certainly been spectacularly successful.
The next step, of course, is to force the Libs to start talking about it
by Danny Lewis on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:49 pm
interesting reading todays comments
some not so true believers,so it seems
by gusface on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Well actually it has, by CPI. Not enough but it has raised it.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:50 pm
I know it is a tad simplistic, but regarding the debts of countries like Greece etc, someone got the money. So find them and get it back.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:51 pm
Womble. Surely the fact that at present if Refugees don’t make the attempt to sail to Australia they are likely to rot forever in Malaysia/Indonesia/Thailand etc, acts as the incentive to set out by boat if they can afford to do so. If a “queue”is manufactured in SE Asia that gives a real chance for refugees to get to Australia without a dangerous voyage, surely that is the most likely method of “stopping the boats”.
I have always been in favour of on shore processing, but have changed my mind because of the inherent fairness of the Bowen Proposal. Policy purity in preference to efficient and fair process is the prerogative of political cowards in my opinion (I’m looking at you especially Sarah Hanson Young).
by Michael Cusack on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:53 pm
here on the central coast we had a mini meeting
moi and JV
here is JV’s photo
http://www.pbase.com/image/56819062
by gusface on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Diogs
voting for positions is technically a secret ballot, but usually what happens is that delegates hand their papers directly to a factional official. Sometimes they don’t even fill them in first.
There was a famous occasion a few years ago at a Vic conference when a former MP handed several blank ballot papers over, unaware that the woman he was handing them to had resigned from the faction that day! Needless to say, she filled them out the way she wanted to, not according to the faction’s instructions, and he then cried foul.
by zoomster on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Scorps,
Yes, let George do his magic. Those would be nice photos, please do send them to me.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Just saw it George. Was getting bad vibes of the “Too much information” type. Then again, maybe a tube of lube would make her happy (for a change).
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:56 pm
PTMD @ 484
You are right – but not just too simplistic, misleading.
The money was not kept and hoarded, it was spent.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:56 pm
Puff – the Bank’s made loans and other investments (bets) that went belly up. They lost out on the structured mortgagee debt stuff during the GFC that were hugely leveraged so that their capital and much more vaporised.
They have been in denial ever since. Several rounds of Bank’s Stress Tests say everything is A OK. But its not.
The whole now is trying to get someone else to agree to pick up the debts.
Then the Markets will turn on the US – after the 2012 elections if they are *lucky*.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:58 pm
dave – 2013 according to wiki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election
But German taxpayers are going berserk…hence Merkel proposal for fiscal union…not sure how that is achieved without political union (“no taxation without representation” type thing)
by Laocoon on Dec 3, 2011 at 6:59 pm
puuufyyyyyyyy/scorp, surely not in Snowtown
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm
I’m always perplexed when I hear about people losing millions. No one will even give me one million to lose. I’m sure I could do it.
by zoomster on Dec 3, 2011 at 7:01 pm
Danny Lewis,
Yeah, still here. Suffering severe PB withdrawal symptoms!
by scorpio on Dec 3, 2011 at 7:02 pm
Ta Lao.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 7:04 pm
Horsey, self description is a bit arrogant too.
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 7:05 pm
Michael – it’s interesting how you say “queues” and “stopping the boats” in that way – over the last 12 months they have become Labor language as well as that of the right – sad really. As to how fair it is to send people to a “queue” in Malaysia – um yeah
And to those claiming the moves on same sex marriage are a great win for Julia – what do you think she will do when it comes time for the conscience vote???
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 7:06 pm
Paul Krugman wrote a good column on the problems of Europe. Well worth a read.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/02/opinion/krugman-killing-the-euro.html?src=me&ref=general
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 7:07 pm