Weekend miscellany
No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Queensland Politics
wait and see i guess Doyley – will make for a fascinating debate in the new year
Bemused
1 – the boats won’t stop
2 – short term detention while heath and security checks are done is reasonable – nice to see Labor move motions to try and cap it at 90 days today, congrats on that
3 – not a legitimate refugee, home you go
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:05 pm
Womble. Once again, I apologise for the language.
Calling for onshore processing is defacto calling for a continuation of people smuggling, because it provides an incentive to risk the boat trip and takes up the room that might be available for those who can’t afford or are otherwise incapable of getting to Australia. I would go along with onshore processing of those already arrived, but if any semblence of fairness is to be introduced to the matter, the Malaysia (and ultimately a whole of SE Asia ) scheme must be introduced.
It is the necessity for fairness that drove me to change my mind re this matter. My experiences as a community volunteer dealing occasionally (including today) with refugees confirms my belief that fairness is the characteristic most necessary in refugee policy. It seems to me that the Greens are quite prepared to sacrifice fairness in order to shroud themselves in moral superiority.
by Michael Cusack on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:05 pm
Joe6pack,
You better. Can’t promise any fresh mud crab though!
BTW, I did catch up with Diogenese while in Adelaide. Yesterday, in fact along with Mrs Scorpio.
by scorpio on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Finns
The population-to-resource ratio is yet another of the global imbalances that is causing a bit of strife…
In the case of the US a significant element is the huge outflows of debt to cover oil purchases so that Hummers can sit at red lights with dignity.
You know it makes sense.
by Boerwar on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:08 pm
I don;t understand ratings agencies? who are they and why are they so important.
I might start up th 6packagency and give ratings every 2weeks with no proof of how i came to my conclusions and in a few years I may be able to influence world markets.
FFS whoever heard of fitch?
by Joe6pack on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:10 pm
r
Why would Labor put the boats in stopes?
by Boerwar on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:11 pm
wombel @ 550
We shall see. Maybe not immediately but when word gets around about people being returned to Malaysia I expect a change.
Agree – while ever a regional solution is being arranged.
Quite traumatic and best to minimise such occurrences.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:13 pm
womble @550,
Yes, it is going to be interesting.
At least labor will control the debate. It has now made sure the argument internally is done and dusted. Abbott will have to respond and try and hold his party together.
by Doyley on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:13 pm
BW, the Yanks are still laughing all the way to Fort Knox by keep on doing QE while them idiots keep buying USD as the defacto “world currency”.
The Comrades in Beijing proposed an IMF backed “world currency” but nobody wants to know.
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Joe go to Fitch in Aust you get…
So Fitch does not really advise anyone, it just puts out press releases. Even easier for 6packagency.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:17 pm
no worries Michael – no one is trying to say it’s an easy issue, unfortunately it will never be fair – there are people in refugee camps the world over waiting for a new life, those who can afford it can and will try for shortcuts
increasing the intake is a good thing – so it’s not all bad
unfortunately i don’t think anyone has all the answers but once they do get here we should deal with them, not make them someone else’s problem
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:18 pm
Does Europe have many boats?
At the rate they’re going we are going to get hundreds of millions of them seeking asylum from the Euro.
No, wait. It’s OK. An unusual drought has grounded Danube merchant traffic.
by Boerwar on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:19 pm
For people interested in the Greens Party health policy, including dental care:
1. http://greens.org.au/policies/care-for-people/health
2. Denticare: A universal primary dental care system – a Greens Party 2010 evidence-based policy initiative:
http://greens.org.au/files/Denticare.pdf
3. Croakey on dental care:
1. 2 May 2010: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2010/05/12/health-budget-has-a-gaping-hole-but-also-heralds-new-era-in-prevention/
10 May 2011: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2011/05/10/a-health-budget-with-no-teeth/
5 May 2010: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2010/05/05/why-health-reform-lacks-teeth-and-why-do-we-neglect-dental-policy-so/
Thank you, zoomster, for giving me the opportunity to post this information and opportunity to publicise another Greens evidence-based policy
by Pegasus on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:22 pm
Ok then . AT the moment joe6packagency gives Australia a AA rating.
by Joe6pack on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:23 pm
And that about sums it up. Anyone who believes that there are no Liberals with a direct interest in this doesn’t understand statistics.
by fredn on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:24 pm
Very much so.
Hope it happens but the Goldman Sachs’ of this world own the US government whoever is in power there, but I also think GS is running out of rope.
This whole financial crisis has sometime to go and GS influence etc has got to be swept away and I think it will.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:25 pm
The money is real if you can withdraw it. Of course if everyone want to withdraw it at the same time, the Ponzi scheme collapses and the money disappears.
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:26 pm
More importantly, figure out a way to get paid for your ratings.
Thats the whole gig. Always follow the money trail.
Interesting article in todays AFR for further reading.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:29 pm
So why are the Greens blocking Labor initiatives to deliver the kind of dental care system you describe, peg?
The Greens refusal to repeal the very expensive, ineffective, and rorted dental scheme introduced by the Libs means that Labor cannot introduce the more all encompassing dental scheme it wishes to, which would benefit those on low incomes.
by zoomster on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:29 pm
dave
GS are “too big to fail” and have a huge amount of control of the US economy. They have had a few setbacks recently but no-one has the will to really reform them.
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:29 pm
how’s this one for a worst case scenario – Abbott allows a conscience vote, which i now think he will, and Julia crossing the floor is the deciding vote
it could get very very messy
another reason why it was interesting that Stephen Smith is already out there saying he has changed his mind on the issue and will support marriage equity when it comes to the vote
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:29 pm
Good question who voted against the ALP proposal, remember Horsey I get my choppers fixed under the existing crap scheme that forces me to crap dentists who get there chair jammed because they lowered in onto the foot switch.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:33 pm
womble
Did it cross your braincell that ministers support party policy in public?
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:35 pm
Yep. We have a fractional Banking system. As in fractional reserves. Banking is highly geared, but no where near 40 times and it is intended to be closely regulated. When it isn’t the problems are not far away.
Add a clown like Greenspan and HIS Fed and you have disaster.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:35 pm
Finns
The US is QE-ing the comrades’ holdings in US bonds to nothing value. When that is accomplished the US will pay back its debts to China.
Fair’s fair.
The Wall Street Criminalatariat strikes again.
by Boerwar on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:37 pm
Everything you wanted to know why EUROZONE is failing but were afraid to ask. It is a 16 heads monster in a single body:
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069458/Euro-flawed-beginning-Jacques-Delors-accuses-European-leaders-doing-little-late.html#ixzz1fSkKtI1w
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:37 pm
ru
So Gillard now supports gay marriage?
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:38 pm
Get a shrub to stir and you end up with a very nasty tea.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:38 pm
Or to paraphrase Roy and HG
by Gorgeous Dunny on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:38 pm
dave
You could always look on the bright side. If Mr Greenspan’s judgement failure over several decades causes a global financial crash then he will have made the single greatest contribution to addressing reductions of CO2 emissions.
He can’t be all bad.
by Boerwar on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:40 pm
Given she has always said she supports the policy of the ALP, an indisputable fact despite your attempt to vapourise her words, yep.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:40 pm
Britney & that #Slygirl on #Slynews are trying very hard to create another PM Gillard’s broken promise on “No same sex change under my Govt”.
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:41 pm
again with the personal attacks – interesting
So Rua is saying the PM will publicly support the party platform and then vote against it, based on what she has been saying to date – I don’t think the media will let her get away with that
and besides, Labor was arguing for offshore processing when it was against the party platform so it wouldn’t be a first
by womble on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:41 pm
Not yet agreed, but I think its coming.
US is going to have to buckle down in 2013 – ie POTUS, will have too, as there will be no alternative (TINA). The backlash against the Bank’s in Europe will be worse.
In the UK the Bank’s activities dominate their GDP and they will fight like Kilkenny Cats to protect their turf, but the key as usual, for now, is the US.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:41 pm
Wow, she changed her mind quickly!
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:44 pm
No I am saying the PM will support party policy as she always has.
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Boerwar @ 548
Apart from Greece, which Govt was involved in running huge deficit spending?
What % of the European zone are Greece & Germany respectively?
Austerity programs in Germany and most other European economies just don’t make sense and will drive all of Europe into a deep recession or worse.
Check out Britain for example. Austerity is causing the economy to shrink and making matters worse.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:46 pm
Matt Taibbi called Greenspan *the biggest arsehole in the universe* in his book “Griftopia” and setting out his detailed reasons for the description.
There is an audiobook of “Griftopia” around on the inter-tubes if interested. Its a good listen.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:46 pm
No the party policy changes by a vote of the party. Is that too hard to understand?
by ruawake on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:46 pm
Wow Diog, she doesnt perennially sit on the fence like you know who.
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:46 pm
The germans are quite right not to opt for hyper-inflation.
They know exactly what happens when you debase the coinage.
by Boerwar on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:46 pm
womble,
There is absolutely no evidence that Abbott will sanction a conscience vote for Homosexual Marriage. To do so would mean he would repudiate everything he has ever said on the topic, would be directly in contravention of those who provide the core of his support and would probably be perceived as weakness on his part in the broader political spectrum.
Now that the debate has moved on from the ALP, I’d expect more scrutiny of any proposed legislation and a significant campaign by all stakeholders in the matter with regard to implications of any proposed changes.
This is what Abbott will use in order to maintain his vehement opposition during the coming shitfight of a debate.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:47 pm
BW, it is still all quiet on the Western Front.
by The Finnigans on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:47 pm
Horsey @ 562
Stop right there Horsey, that’s enough. Not interested in fairy tales.
by bemused on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:47 pm
Some nice quotes in this: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-03/same-sex-marriage-supporters-hail-bittersweet-victory/3711044
by rishane on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:48 pm
So when she said her personal view was that the Marriage Act shouldn’t be changed, that wasn’t really her personal view?
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:49 pm
The Brits made an excellent call by staying out, but their Bank’s are still way out of proportion in relation to their other economy.
by dave on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:50 pm
ru,
Party policy is a conscience vote. Given all Gillard has said and written on the topic, I’d be amazed if she voted for Homosexual Marriage. (But, I have been amazed before in ALP politics).
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:51 pm
Finns
I have always being on the same side of the fence and said SSM should be recognised.
by Diogenes on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:52 pm
dave
This has jogged a thought – if Obama wins in 2012, he has no more elections to fight. Could make him more amenable to taking on the IB lobby
by Laocoon on Dec 3, 2011 at 8:52 pm