Weekend miscellany

Saturday, December 3, 2011

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:

• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Queensland Politics

1800 Responses

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And Agenda 21 rears it’s ugly head.

by Frank Calabrese on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:20 am
25 mins on hold

by gusface on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:21 am
“being Converted to a Lesbian”.

Good Dog !!!!!

by Frank Calabrese on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:24 am
Bob Katters Hat – that Samantha Maiden article reminds me of one a month or two ago, when “sources” were quoted re Leadership. From a poster here (c@tmomma) and seperately from Laura Tingle at the same time, seemed to be from sections in the NSW Right (maybe just one non MP person) who wanted to stir up trouble post the Cabinet Asylum Seeker decision.

This one could be related to SSM or AS? In any case, all it would take to keep this issue “alive” forever is about 10 MPs (Rudd’s core supporter base) willing to whinge any time someone doesn’t get what they want. Unfortunately this may never completely go away until the next election in 2013. God knows why anyone would think Rudd could restore the polls for more than a blip, I sure don’t.

by Leroy on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:24 am
frankie

#ohmike handled her well

by gusface on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:26 am
gusface

Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 1:26 am | Permalink

frankie

#ohmike handled her well

Agreed.

Esoecally as #ohmike’s onetime boss Mike Walsh is Gay

by Frank Calabrese on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:29 am
frank

MW’s pa went to school with moi

waves to Di

by gusface on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:31 am
SBS showing the rugger

by gusface on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:32 am
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sex-lies-drugs-and-the-liberal-party-officials-grill-potential-candidates/story-e6freuy9-1226213169641

Sex, lies, drugs and the Liberal Party: officials grill potential candidates
Linda Silmalis The Sunday Telegraph December 04, 2011 12:00AM

LIBERAL Party officials are asking potential candidates to confess to a host of potential personal embarrassments like "any sexual affairs", drink driving or gambling debts.

The ramped-up screening process is designed to weed out any candidates who could damage Tony Abbott's bid to win government.

.................

However, some party officials claim the questionnaire is so brutal many Coalition frontbenchers themselves would fail to pass the test. "It's pretty funny given half the Coalition frontbench would fail," one preselector said.

More in the article

by Leroy on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:33 am
40 mins on hold

by gusface on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:36 am
And Heeeere’s Gus……

by Frank Calabrese on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:37 am
Curious Snail stuff

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/secret-deal-on-gay-marriage/story-e6freooo-1226212757132

Gay marriage not an issue in Qld, says Anna Bligh as Labor national conference backs same-sex rights
by: Anna Caldwell, Steven Scott From: The Courier-Mail
December 03, 2011 2:53PM

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/polls-tip-lnp-to-win-in-a-landslide/story-e6freon6-1226212752324

Polls tip Liberal National Party landslide win in Queensland
by: Steven Wardill From: The Courier-Mail December 03, 2011 12:00AM

Reliable internal polling story

by Leroy on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:39 am
And #ohmike talks over Gus…

by Frank Calabrese on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:41 am
Good job

by Frank Calabrese on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:50 am
ta frank

hope it sinks in

by gusface on Dec 4, 2011 at 1:52 am
Thanks for the link rishane.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-backs-disability-insurance-scheme-20111203-1ocid.html

This is actually pretty big. They will need to have a strategy to get there well mapped out, and communicated, as they will come under a lot of criticism for not doing it NOW from all and sundry.

That’s not to say that there aren’t people out there now who could do with the help now, but something this fundamental (and eminently worthy) needs to be done right, thoroughly embedded in the system, and sustainably funded.

The politics are probably a bit dangerous for the ALP though. They will get credit for the concept, but i’d think that the No-alition could play the line of supporting it, wanting to rush something through, and then trying to portray themselves as the compassionate ones.

Still, it seems like good policy to me so far.

by imacca on Dec 4, 2011 at 2:16 am
What has that Lemur been up to?

by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 2:28 am
Gus and Frank have been tormenting poor #ohmike again. For shame, the both of you.

by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 4, 2011 at 2:39 am
Good old Their ABC:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-04/labor-divided-on-gay-marriage-approval/3711332

by Frank Calabrese on Dec 4, 2011 at 2:57 am
Wobblies 24 Wales 18

by This little black duck on Dec 4, 2011 at 3:31 am
morning all…. looks like julia’s gone! http://www.news.com.au/

by Lyne Lady on Dec 4, 2011 at 6:13 am
Let me see, today is sunday, there will be a Newspoll tomorrow.

Yep, it’s time for Nessie again, the Ruddstoration:

Ousted PM Kevin Rudd tipped to challenge Julia Gillard by May - KEVIN Rudd still has "the ticker" to tackle Julia Gillard for the prime ministership and is preparing to challenge within months.

Despite a belief that Mr Rudd's leadership ambitions had been put on ice following a recent turnaround in fortunes for Julia Gillard, supporters of the deposed PM want him to move on her before next year's Budget in May.

"Kevin has never wanted for ticker when it comes to taking on the leadership," one Labor MP told the Sunday Herald Sun.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/ousted-pm-kevin-rudd-tipped-to-challenge-julia-gillard-by-may/story-fn7x8me2-1226213238048

But wait, there is more. It was to be this Christmas, but Nessie was too elusive for them, now it’s May.

But wait, there is more … it’s by Samantha Maiden.

How fuckingly pathetic these #MSMhacks are.

by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:18 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Not political but not a good look either.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/rivers-tycoon-on-sex-assault-charge-20111203-1ocp4.html
This is a good article on ethics and scripture classes in NSW public schools.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/ethics-tussle-beggars-belief-20111202-1ob2n.html

by BK on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:31 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
A Senior Lib source has told me that Turnbull has decided to challenge Abbott before whenever Rudd challenges Gillard. #auspol
11 seconds ago

by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:31 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
It’s now obvious that the MSMhacks cant handle the success of the #ALPNC where different issues are openly debated and voted on #auspol
now

by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:34 am
BK, good morning. i really feel like the Stanlingrad Sniper on a Dawn Patrol

by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:35 am
Leon Panetta, US secretary for Defense, tells it as it is to Israel.

"We understand the concerns of Israel, we understand the concerns of the Palestinians.

"If they sit at a table and work through those concerns and the United States can be of assistance in that process, then I think you have the beginning of what could be a process that could lead to a peace agreement.

"But if they aren’t there, if they aren’t at the table, this will never happen. So first and foremost get to the damn table."

by BK on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:39 am
Finns
Dawn is the best part of the day!

by BK on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:40 am
Broke a resolution and actually read that Maiden article. It could have been a collage of comments made months ago. It’s so obviously just manufacture for a purpose that it qualifies as pure propaganda. A new low even for Limited News – now Not News At All

by ajm on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:50 am
Ouch!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/everyone-used-ticketmaster-last-12-190940783.html
A great comment from MSNBC’s Martin Bashir on Herman Cain’s hypocrisy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/03/herman-cain-affair-martin-bashir_n_1127041.html

by BK on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:53 am
Something cute to start the day.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/02/school-portrait-film_n_1126103.html

by BK on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:57 am
Maiden has been involved in a number of these leadership stories. Is that her main role these days, cooking up leadership BS?

by Gary on Dec 4, 2011 at 7:59 am
Gary she is now their Senior Ruddstoration Correspondent

by joe2 on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:02 am
Daily Telegraph editorialising in FAVOUR of same-sex marriage! Take that Joe de Bruyn

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/gay-marriage-a-question-of-happiness/story-e6frezz0-1226213095556

by docantk on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:06 am
BK

Shame we grew up to become what we are.

by gigi on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:06 am
So one news ltd, has rudderestation.
The other if favour of guy marriage

I am very confused.

by my say on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:10 am
Good morning all.

So it’s a Newspoll weekend, and surprise, surprise, we have Ruddstoration again!

The agenda is so transparent, I’m not sure why they bother with it anymore.

by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:13 am
Yes Maiden is stirring, but since she hates Rudd I assume the article is designed to stop him not help him”

The issue is of course POLLS (this is PB after all). While Gillard’s polls are moving upwards she is safe at least until 9 months before the election. If the vote is still in the 46% range and PV less than 35% then there may be a rethink in early 2013.

If the polls take a tumble again then there will probably be a challenge. There are three actively canvassing Rudd, Smith and Shorten. There is no mystery or secret or deals about this – or even personality politics. It is simply that MPs want to keep their seats. If the polling is poor they will clutch at straws to save themselves. Simple, not rocket science and obvious to any political observer.

As for the three challengers- also no mystery. Three strong ambitious people each wanting leadership. No mystery, no horror just politics plain and simple. Alliances, policy position, capacity to win votes, leadership ability and personality will each be important. Again not mystery or rocket science. Just politics.

This weekend’s conference (like MOST conferences) is about jockeying for power long term and building alliances. Again nothing to say shock horror about – that is just politics.

1. Shorten is playing a long term game, seeking to build a reputation for achievement. Sensible. He also has personality issues and some baggage
2. Smith is seeking to build bridges with the left – hence the Gay marriage shift
3.Rudd is Rudd “and ever more shall be so”

The real political unknown for Labor is the LNP. If they shift leaders then all bets are off.

So people this is just politics. Not trolling or any other bloody thing. Just observation. No need to call people names (you know who you are). Just rationally consider politics and polling – the purpose of PB No?

by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:13 am
BK, i saw his poor wife being trotted out to defend him last week. The poor woman.

How ning-nong like Cain thinks that he can get away from things like these. He still insists that he is “suspending” his campaign only not withdrawing.

Also it is still the faults of others not him. He said he is at peace with his wife and his wife with him.

Amazing, and it can only happen in USA.

"Isn't it time he also considered resigning his position as an associate minister at Antioch Baptist Church in Atlanta?" he said. "...If Herman Cain is proven to be lying, and drops out of the race, doesn't that also disqualify him from holding a position in the local church?"

In an ultra-harsh assessment of Cain's behavior, Bashir quoted from the "statement of faith" from Cain's church: "nothing prevents the salvation of the greatest sinner on Earth but his own determined depravity and voluntary rejection of the Gospel."

"If Mr. Cain withdraws from politics, then he must surely resign his position in the Church because one thing's for certain, hypocrites can lie in the pew but should never lead from the pulpit," Bashir concluded.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/03/herman-cain-affair-martin-bashir_n_1127041.html

by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:18 am
So it’s a Newspoll weekend, and surprise, surprise, we have Ruddstoration again!

I thought the polling was being conducted from Thursday to Saturday.

by Gary on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:34 am
Yes Maiden is stirring, but since she hates Rudd I assume the article is designed to stop him not help him”

dare, I don’t have too much trouble in what you’ve said overall but I’m interested in knowing how such speculation hinders Rudd’s chances for leadership.

by Gary on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:37 am
Stephen Smith doing very well on Agenda this morning.

by BK on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:39 am
timhollo timhollo
Daily Tele stooping to homophobic headline RT @jillianblackall: The Daily Telegraph is calling Penny Wong 'Pansy': http://bit.ly/sN8QJy

by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:39 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
It looks like now Labor is the real Broad Church and the Coalition is the Graveyard Midnight Cult #auspol
27 seconds ago

by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:40 am
Sam Maiden wrote:

Supporters of Mr Rudd conceded that the ALP caucus was not prepared to act before Christmas, citing a desire to extend Ms Gillard natural justice, allow her to welcome US President Barack Obama to Australia and conclude the ALP conference.

But they warned the fundamentals of Labor's primary vote had not altered, with dozens of Labor MPs facing the loss of their seats in a potential electoral slaughter.

The critics warned the defection of Liberal MP Mr Slipper to become Speaker and sit as an independent in Parliament would blow up in her face.

Modesty forbade her from adding the last thing the “Labor MP” said, where he confessed that the Daily Telegraph had been right all along…

"Take last Christmas... he was just about to challenge but the taxi he took to the airport in Brizzie got a flat tyre, and Kevin missed his plane to Canberra. The senior Labor sources who were waiting to meet him got frightened and faded into the night. Christ! That was frustrating! He had a new ticker - well, a valve anyway - and a new haircut. The polls weren't good. Things looked on the up and up and then the Nervous Nellies pissed off because his plane was late. Weak as piss, I reckon."

"Then there was the day after the Carbon Tax was announced. He knew it'd never fly so he got a team of prominent NSW right wing MPs around him for a quick coup. But whaddayaknow? He was using Vista, SP3, not SP4... and his bloody laptop crashed... blue screen of death and all that... just as he was about to save the spreadsheet with all the plotters' phone numbers on it. Well, that was that. He uses Windows 7 now."

"The in June during the Festival Of Rudd, around the anniversary. You remember how Tony Abbott celebrated the day before the anniversary, then the day, and finally the day after the day with censures, and plebiscites, demos and convoys and petitions and suchlike? Well, only a few people know that there was gunna be a day after the day after the day anniversary when Kevin was going to bring it on; sort of a cherry on top for the week. But blimey... we despairing caucus members who faced losing our seats in a landslide loss if Julia Gillard remains Prime Minister didn't realise it was a Friday and everyone had gone home for the weekend! You can't run a coup when there's no-one there to vote in the spill now, can you? Not sure who stuffed that one up, but it was a biggy."

"September was a disaster when that dickhead Graham Perret... what is it with Queenslanders anyway?... when Perret said he'd resign if we moved. The bastard was on KEVIN's side too! Who the bloody hell is Graham Perret? Anyway, that was that for September and October.

"The second October coup, the backup plan, was just bad luck. It should's worked. Bolta was onto it. Dunno how, but. He even made a public prediction, in print. Well, that made things hard for us embattled Labor backbenchers in marginal seats facing a voter backlash over the Pokie Pre-Committment legislation. Andrew's a great guy and all that. He's always giving us advice, some of it's pretty good too, like 'Just resign' and 'Stuff the Abos'. That sorta thing. But publishing too early kinda took the wind out of our sails, and we had to call it off."

"By the end of October the polls were getting a bit better for Julia too, but this time we were determined. We exasperated MPs from precarious Western Sydney seats wedged by the Greens on one side and the Liberals on the other leaked to youse guys it'd be brought on by end-November. Nothing like a little 'destabilization', right? They don't call it the 'Killing Zone' for nothing. Am I right? Heh, heh... Little Stevie Lewis gave it a run in your rag and everything seemed to be set. We needed the MRRT to get through. Julia was useful for things like that, getting things through, like 250 of them, actually... or is it 260? No matter... We knew it was unpopular and that we'd squibbed it last year. Counting myself and Kevin, we had at least 6 other caucus members who'd sort-of said they'd sort-of be in on it. The idea was to let Julia do the hard yards and then we'd snatch the prize before she knew what was happening. What happened? Another goodish poll, some talk around the place that the backstabber was on the comeback. That blousy Kerry chick on Insiders started out about 'The Vibe' or some bloody thing and before you knew it, November had come and gone. Gerry Henderson, Michelle, Hartcho and Shanners tried to give it mouth-to-mouth, but there was no point. The Queen and Obama didn't help much, either. Kevin was counting on Obama waving to him in the Parliament that day, but he never did. Bastard."

"OK, so fair dinkum, this time it's REALLY on for May. We relentless machine men growing increasingly aghast at the poor polling performance of Julia Gillard... did you get that?.... have to get back into the Lodge by just after the Budget. We'll let Swanny make the announcement on the Budget blowout, take the pain, do the hard yards and then we'll pounce. 100% guaranteed. By then we'll have at least 10 or 12 on our side - a lot of people were upset about the list of PMs without Kevin in it - and, you know, it's only right we get another go. Kevin's such a man of the people. He's seen the error of his ways, no risk. Pencil in Budget week, May next year. London to a brick it'll work this time. The Ruddster likes playing with Julia's mind, y'know. She'll be shitting herself right now."

"But what buggers me is this: basically, everything the Daily Telegraph and the other News Ltd papers have said in the past about Rudd coming back - the issues, the tijming, the support - was true. How did ya bloody know all that? I thought I was the only one leaking. You're not gonna tell me there's been a few others are you?"

by Bushfire Bill on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:41 am
Gary

Cannot answer but I assume that Maiden has her reasons. Could be just general anti Labor destabilisation but more likely she sees it as a way of continuing to keep the anti Rudd fires stoked.

by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:42 am
Its the Kevenator “ill be back”

Still fighting for relevance in the history of Labor after being erased by the master PM machine.

by rummel on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:42 am
BernardKeane Bernard Keane
"Pansy Wong" says it all about the least trusted, most contemptible and crassly partisan media outlet in the country.

Onya Pen.

by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:43 am
Gary:

I’m sure News ltd would grasp any opportunity to run with Ruddstoration.

by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:44 am
I thought rummel was talking about a fridge,when I first looked
First. Time I have agrreed with rummel

by my say on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:44 am

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