Weekend miscellany
No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Queensland Politics
confessions
Not from anyone I know.
by MTBW on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:03 am
Whatever the truth is, I don’t agree with Gillard snubbing Rudd. I think that was a bad decision. It perpetuates the Gillard-Rudd issue and lends it credibility.
by Diogenes on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:03 am
Diog – I agree. See my post at 753
by Leroy on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:04 am
Greensborough Growler,
I take it you have read enough of them to instantly recognize that particular style, then?
A bit of over-reach there me thinks GG.
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:04 am
Apparently the Occupy protesters were at conference to run interference on the uranium debate, however when Albo happened to mention uranium, they thought that time had come, and started yelling out. They were promptly evicted.
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:06 am
confessions @ 897
And who are ‘those who would know about these things’?
The usual suspects like Limited News hacks and various other media hacks, IPA shills etc?
You keep good company.
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:07 am
Admiration is fine. However Kev is no saint in this battle and as a Lib i will defend Gillard from this poor old Kev spin. The man lost the plot and now actively undermines the PM and has done so since the last election.
Kev is worse in my book then Slipper. Slipper at least had the guts to shaft his party in the open, Kev is off ratting around the Labor party drain pipes taking little bites off the PM at every opportunity when the PM gains some traction.
Kev makes me sick and i dont even care about Labor.
by rummel on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:07 am
Andrew Fisher must be rolling in his grave that the PM failed to acknowledge his govt’s achievements in her speech the other day.
What was she thinking!!
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:08 am
That sounds about right. And it suits News to give it more significance than it deserves.
by Aguirre on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:09 am
You should ask William.
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:09 am
rummel @ 9906
Ahhh now we have a Fib jumping in to stir the pot.
Good tactical move on behalf of Tone.
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:11 am
Diogenes,
The media have picked it up as small-minded pettiness on her part and it will now become a distraction from the positive messages that Labor wish to come out of the Conference.
Either Gillard’s advisers need a bit of a shake up because they seem to consistently lead her up dry gullies that the rather hostile media immediately jump on, or Julia’s own judgment itself leaves a bit to be desired.
She and her advisers must surely be aware by now that words are weapons that can easily be turned against her and “”are”!
by scorpio on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:11 am
bemuised 910
We are the experts in rats!
by rummel on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:12 am
The real issue for people on PB is
What is the ELECTORAL outcome of the ALP conference.
That is what we are mostly here to discuss and I would love to get some well thought out responses.
It is early days but here are my thoughts
1 Gay marriage – will probably attract/keep a few younger voters including some who might vote green. The response by the Libs may affect this but on balance a slight win for Labor relative to the Greens. The group will be the moderate sort of young people
2. Asylum Seekers. If the Greens handle this well there are possibly three seats in it for them. Greens will use this as a stick against Labor. I think it will kill off any chance that Labor had of recruiting the young passionates – you know like we were when 20. It will strengthen the shift of left labor to Green electorally and also in party membership. It may win a few from the right back to Labor but probably not because for this group other issues such as the economy will swamp any possible positives.
3. Uranium – yet to know
4. Party reform – probably not electorally relevant
5 Disability insurance – Good idea but a bit ho hum – not unless it extends to ageing and mental health (the two biggies for disability) which still may not be a vote catcher. Dental insurance or to medicare THAT would have been a biggie.
by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:13 am
rummel,
The rats are always bigger under the Libs?
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:13 am
rummel @ 912
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:14 am
scorps
Everyone here picked up on it as well so it wasn’t just the media. Predictably the media ran with it as it gave them ammunition. Why she would give them free ammunition is beyond me.
by Diogenes on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:15 am
Who are the winners out of Rudd talk?
Certainly not govt if there is talk of destabilisation.
Certainly not Rudd because it makes ALP supporters turn against him.
Others? A third party who wants to destabilise leadership and also put Rudd out of the picture.
“Other” others?
Take your pick.
by RNM1953 on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:15 am
Diogs,
Maybe she forgot Rudd was ever PM.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:17 am
RNM1953
Spot on!
by MTBW on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:19 am
GG
So during the conference, this is what is being reported on.
It’s not helpful, distracts from the good stuff and makes Labor look divided.
It’s not a good look.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/kevin-rudd-wasnt-snubbed-says-simon-crean/story-e6frea73-1226213334512
by Diogenes on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:20 am
Diogs,
I find Rudd cast as Miffy quite amusing.
Calling someone a “senistive petal” at an ALP conference is almost a term of endearment. If he’d used “Maate!” then you know some bifo would be on.
As always, you tend to over analyse the least important aspects. But, that’s because you don’t really understand politics.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:24 am
Confessions
There are a number of religious sects in Labor and on PB
There is the western Aussie focussed “Beazley Boys” who worship a giant teddy bear (or maybe a bit like Ganesh the elephant (William is head priest)
There are the Gillard is Goddess Group who worship a red headed goddess of war (Athena?) There is a whole vestal crowd of worshipers
There is the Rudd Rabble who worshship the overthrown gods (sort of like the sea gods of the Norse/Irish myths) – bit on the outer ( I am a loosley affiliated member of this sect)
The Abbott Adulators who worship a monkey god
Crean Crew – a small sect of devotees who worship an inanimate rock
Shorten Society (emerging sect)
The point is each sect hates the others and therefore treat everything each says with caution.
by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:25 am
daretotread,
Ah yes, the things that divide us are far more important than those that bind us.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:28 am
That’s a shame IMO.
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:30 am
Daretoread@787 and 913
Thank goodness there are a few PBers who are not caught up on this increasingly boring Rudd thing.
Having glumly looked at the on-going so-called discussion from those on the progressive side on this topic it would be handy to actually get back to the politics of it all.
As far as the SM article is concerned, it has turned up here in the West in the Sunday Times – the local Murdoch rag. The paper, content-wise, is as light as a feather, and it would be doubtful if anyone actually read it – apart from local political tragics.
Does anyone really believe – other than disappointed Ruddites, the conservatives and their media cohorts, that after what has really been for Labor, a very successful year, that in say 5 months Mr Rudd will be reinstated?
Logically, nothing could happen until February when Parliament sits again. Then we are into the pre-Budget period then in July some of the 2011 legislation starts to kick in.
The longer JG remains on her feet, the better are Labor’s chances of pulling off victory in 2013.
United longevity is Labor’s friend. The longer Labor remain in office, the weaker becomes the position of Abbott as he will run out of puff. Hate can only sustain for so long.
by Tricot on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:32 am
GG
It does not matter what Rudd thinks. It is what the electorate and media think. There seemed to be univeral media assessment that not a good look to ignore him.
I have said for the last year and a half that Gillards biggest mistake has been her lack of kindness and good will to Rudd. By playing the nasty, she fans the flames of those who think she is treacherous. She should have made glowing speeches which implied Rudd had been great but had somehow got sick or tired etc. Then she could play the heroine. By being nasty she loses this advantage.
Remember that when Rudd was PM whatever other Cabinet members may have experienced, she Gillard was one of the trusted gang of Four. She personally had not been badly treated. This means she personally needs to be kinder than kind to him. Let others, NEVER, NEVER, her do the nasties. Unfortunately she has not taken that advice.
by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:34 am
Comrade, it’s all in my Beautiful Set of Numbers – another 2 years, 104 weeks, 730 days, 17520 hours, 1,051,200 minutes and 63,072,000 secs
by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:35 am
Dio:
As I’ve said before, it wouldn’t matter whether the PM had mentioned Rudd or not, the Rudd Cult were always going to find fault with what she said. This is because, for Rudd and his backers, it is never about the party or the govt, but about Rudd himself.
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:36 am
daretotread @ 913
Responding to your points:
George reported yesterday that a Lib voting gay couple he knows will not shift their vote on this. It may get a few votes from those who may have otherwise voted green but I don’t see any major impact.
Onshore processing will continue unless the Fibs cave in.
If the Fibs do cave in then, if we are to believe the departments assessment, there will be a strong deterrent effect and processing will proceed offshore and people will be brought to Australia as having had their AS claims accepted and go straight into the community. Big win to govt.
I think exporting to India will proceed as it should. The present policy is not logical although it has emotional appeal. India has other sources of Uranium if we don’t sell.
Two aspects here. The immediate effect of the party seeking to become more open, democratic and innovative. Some benefit. Second aspect is the long term effect if reform is successful. See Bruce Hawkers article in yesterdays SMH with it’s reference to what happened to the NDP in Canada.
This has been around at least since the time of Whitlam and it is overdue to do something. It will win votes.
Individual policies will strongly influence people passionate about those issues.
But what matters most in my opinion is the overall ‘vibe’ about a party. In that respect the conference has so far been a great success. There has been passionate but respectful debate, speakers have generally been of a high quality and represented a visibly broad cross-section of society, women have been prominent and of a high quality, Jenny McAlister has been great in the chair and is a great front person for the ALP. This makes it hard for out foes to paint the party as unrepresentative, out of touch and just a bunch of ‘union thugs and faceless men’.
By comparison the Liberals and Greens conferences are a joke.
I rate the conference an outstanding success and a big plus for the ALP and the Government.
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:37 am
@bemused/883,
I fail to see any benefit for Rudd to destroy his labor party, he would be damaging himself as well.
by zoidlord on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:39 am
And if the PM had acknowledged KR, the obvious question would have been then why did you knife a good PM? Really tricky but I feel she should have acknowledged him. It’s really sad that journalists would continue to harp on such events but very seldom now days that journalists, except for a few outstanding ones, write up about good policies. I mean thus conference has been successful on some major issues and I doubt where Labor would be given credit accordingly.
by adam abdool on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:39 am
Tricot
Yes but as I said earlier. It is all about the polls. If the ALP TPV is still around 46% in 2013 or falls to 43% in 2012, then there will be challenges from Rudd or Smith or Shorten.
In 2011 Rudd was the only viable contender. By late 2012 others may have emerged.
by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:39 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@latingle yep, just like the yellow cake on her hair, her jacket and her cheeks RT PM seems to be making one on uranium
25 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:40 am
confessions
and
Really?
This kind of generalisation doesn’t help your arguement at all.
by MTBW on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:42 am
zoidlord @ 930
Agree. No sense or logic to it.
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:42 am
fess, do they meet at the graveyard as the Coalition Midnight Cult?
by The Finnigans on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:43 am
Bemused
Probably right regarding the “vibe.” It is the press who largely interpret this for the rest. Seems positive overall.
I imagine the Greens will follow suit. Libs Hmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!
by daretotread on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:44 am
zoidlord:
If Labor win the next election with an outright majority, Rudd won’t hang around.
If Labor lose the next election, Rudd won’t hang around.
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:46 am
daretotread @ 937
I have seen an occasional brief shot of State Liberal conferences in Victoria. A lot of the delegates look like they have been wheeled in from their nursing homes.
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:46 am
Finns:
They may as well.
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:46 am
DTT
Tell me in what way has Gillard been nasty to Rudd? You sure inow how to make shit up!
by victoria on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:47 am
confessions @ 938
So now you are Kev’s confidant?
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:47 am
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:54 am
I’d say the omission was the PM’s own decision, and it would have been expected that it would draw notice. As others have pointed out, it wouldn’t have been hard to avoid.
She was, of course, on the inside of the Rudd Govt, and quite possibly remembers its achievements in a different light to those that were outside it. That is, perhaps her recollection includes things that she regards as having been achieved in spite of Mr Rudd’s leadership rather than because of it, and opportunities that she regards as having been lost because of Mr Rudd’s leadership rather than in spite of it- and perhaps that still sometimes pisses her off…
by Kersebleptes on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:55 am
Too many get sucked into the Rudd regurgitation by media/conservative trolls – best to disregard it and focus on good policy that shines a light on the lack of policy from the opposition.
Important debate going on now re uranium to India – I’m for it so long as there are responsible safeguards.
Here’s hoping for a positive Newspoll tonight which will increase pressure on the hollow Abbott
by Rex Douglas on Dec 4, 2011 at 11:59 am
Rudd … who?
Julia … do.
+++
Bugger. I’d promised myself not comment on the Rudd rubbish. Slap wrist.
by Scringler on Dec 4, 2011 at 12:03 pm
Am I right in assuming the Indian uranium deal will pass although there will be lots of opposition?
by Diogenes on Dec 4, 2011 at 12:08 pm
Diogenes @ 947
That is my expectation.
A healthy democratic party process in action.
by bemused on Dec 4, 2011 at 12:10 pm
by confessions on Dec 4, 2011 at 12:10 pm