Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
G’night jen.
Best wishes on account of your FIL.
by confessions on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:01 pm
Frank
I have never been a member of the AMA. Most docs aren’t in it.
by Diogenes on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Never been to Kununurra, but have heard about it (from my time living in Darwin). Were you there for work or pleasure?
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:02 pm
McLaren F1 team go carbon neutral. if the most politically incorrect Sport are involved in the Carbon reduction process, why are conservative pollies still holding out?
http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2011/12/12869.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:03 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Why Merkel & Sarkozy reminded me of Laurel & Hardy, but which is which?
now
by The Finnigans on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:04 pm
Never been there, but have eaten their onions for years here in Melb, until the local guy stopped bringing them in. Have been hoping to find another seller since then
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:04 pm
Mod Lib -
I think most here have assumed that this Newspoll is just ‘status quo’ 54-55 vs 46-45 reflecting that the last was a rogue, not that things have actually improved for the ALP in the last month, so there wasn’t much “happy place” beyond reflecting that things are ok going into next year.
by Jackol on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:06 pm
poroti,
Where can one obtain the variety to which you refer?
(At least, talking about spuds gets ‘em off Rudd.)
+++
This is great news about the Australian Network.
by Scringler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:06 pm
george,
Vic Market.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:06 pm
GG, do you know which seller?
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Ahh so they are the lib’s version of the SDA then ?
by Frank Calabrese on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Jackol:
BTW was it you that bet with me this Newspoll would be 55-45?
If so, good pick! Almost got it…
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
The Italian Welfare Minister cried when she announced the welfare cuts. I bet Silvio still laughing all the way to his bunga bunga.
now
by The Finnigans on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Mod Lib
Where be you in Darwin ? I was sentenced to Winnellie and da LNG lab out at Wickham Point. Ah the joy of the Humpty Doo mango farmer a couple of kilometers along the Arnhem Hwy from the Stuart Hwy turnoff that offered a “help yourself” for $8 a bag of mangoes. Mmmmmm.
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Mod Lib,
Good to see you’ve come to offer your apologies for becoming over excited about the last Newspoll. You were warned. But your inner hubris overwhlemed you and proved once again the early crow is usually a dead duck.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:08 pm
george,
Joe the Potato Man.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:09 pm
excellent – thanks!
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:11 pm
Scringler
In WA royal blues are like “normal”. For youse tothersiders who knows
Check it out.
http://www.westernpotatoes.com.au/go/consumers/varieties/know-your-varieties?VARIETYID=2975F627-A0CC-3C8C-D9A86FAE8A77B4B2
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:11 pm
jenauthor
All my very best wishes for your FIL
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:12 pm
Hey Diog, were you too stingy to pay the membership fee or they wont have you?
What about the Tree Lopper Union then.
by The Finnigans on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:12 pm
poroti:
It was a while ago, but I lived in Nightcliffe…remember going to the park to watch the sunset over the sea (along with countless others) and walking my dog along there.
When I first went up some locals told me to watch out for crocs. Of course, being a smart city sider I knew they were just kidding me (like “watch out for the roos hopping down the streets of Sydney”). However, when I opened the newspaper the very first morning after I moved in, the front page was “Croc seen walking down (a particular street in Nightcliffe a few streets away) street in Nightcliffe”.
I was gobsmacked (and made sure the gate was securely locked so my dog was safe when I was working!!!!)
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:13 pm
finns,
Diogs is the Groucho Marx of life. Refuses to be a member of any organisation that would accept his type.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:14 pm
There was lining up a link to Mr Potato Head only to find you can buy Mr Potato Head figures dressed up as your favourite Stars War character. How crass!
by shellbell on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:14 pm
GG:
Don’t get too excited…the Newspoll hasnt really moved much since March, and its 8 points worse for the ALP than this time last year. However, 54-46 is at least a potentially winnable position (although the ALP still wont win under Gillard).
The good news is Abbott might get knifed over the next couple of months now…
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Those talking about doctors and the need for more numbers need to remember this -
we have doubled the number of junior doctors. We have not doubled the number of supervising doctors. Each junior doctor from now on will have half of the supervision they should get.
They will be treating you, unsupervised.
Dumb solutions cause even bigger problems. I have no love for the AMA, but don’t trot out the “doctors are all protectionist” malarky. I have huge misgivings about the increase in numbers, and I just want to protect patients
by SoulmanZ on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:16 pm
by Leroy on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:16 pm
poroti,
Thanks.
Good night, Bludgers.
by Scringler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:16 pm
rishane@998
You could be on the money!
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:16 pm
shellbell,
Yes, the undermining of the “Little Mr Potato Head” legend is a travesty.
I blame the Carbon Tax.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:16 pm
bemused
I’m sure you already know my perspective on the Rudd situation
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:18 pm
Mod Lib,
I’m pretty sure the polls were 50/50 last Christmas.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:18 pm
Bingo!
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:19 pm
I still think Abbott will get knifed on the 24th of this month.
by rummel on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Hi Bludgers,
Has the world just been turned on its head? I just got favourited by Maiden!
by Space Kidette on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:19 pm
So 54-46 is an 8 point gap since this time last year.
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Not that I want you to be wrong but why 24th out of interest?
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:21 pm
Frank
There is a lot of truth in that. The idea that the AMA speaks for doctors as a group is just spin.
by Diogenes on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:22 pm
I think it was 49/51, but Mod Lib doesn’t “do” facts GG
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:22 pm
GG
For the record? She is a lawyer with limited narrow industrial experience for two years and is probably not in the top 20,000 candidates for the High Court. That’s a classic.
.
by jaundiced view on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:22 pm
Soulman
there are ways to overcome that problem, which are win – win for communities.
Our small hospital will now get trainee doctors, for example. They’re being supervised by local doctors, who haven’t had the opportunity to supervise before. Level of supervision is the same, it’s just spread around.
And our local community will have more medical professionals on the ground – a trainee is better than nothing! – and the young doctors might be more receptive to the idea of working in the country when they graduate.
A similar program for overseas nurses has been very successful here, and led to an increase in permanent nursing staff, as many of the trainees take up positions here.
by zoomster on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:22 pm
Xmas present?
by Carey Moore on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:23 pm
err, you need to explain yourself a little better in future
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:23 pm
Dec 3rd 2010: 50-50
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:24 pm
SK
Goodness me!
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Considering the difficult issues facing the Government this year a four percent swing to the Liberals for the year is about what one would expect but as I have said many times before if the Liberal Party was lead by someone like a Turnbull or similar polly then they would be further in front.
Regardless I think Tony will lead the Liberals to the next election and I think the P.M needs to be more assertive or else the next P.M will be Tone.
I say this for I see a very gloomy storm on the economic horizon and the P.M better get on with ensuring that everything is tied down.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:25 pm
If Abbott, Gillard etc. survive the knife for another 26 days, 2011 will be the first year since 2000 when a parliamentary party hasn’t changed their leader.
by Carey Moore on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:25 pm
Mod Lib
The “Watching of the Sunset” is now huge in Mindl Beach during the Dry Season.All those fires make for great red sunsets. I had a Russian boss that swam in the the sea with his missus out Nightcliffe way (despite my warnings) until he saw, whilst fishing from the rocks, a 4.5 meter croc come up and check him out. When it comes to Darwin crocs are a clear and present danger.Anyone that says other wise is an idiot. That said croc rules are pretty simple.As are crocs. They do not break the rules ever. Dead croc peeps almost always end up that way by thinking otherwise.
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:25 pm
the next day is the only day of the year to be media free to sort out the new improved media message to sell the new lib leader.
by rummel on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:27 pm
george,
I think Tony would prefer Easter.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:27 pm
I cannot image Roxon being promoted to the High Court.
I think Roxon has done an okay job but I disagree with the earlier comment that she is the best performer for I would rate Anthony Albanese the best performer for his handling of Infrastructure Australia
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:28 pm