Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
GG
Yes, and happily so if I know I’m correct on the proper grounds, but lately I have had a couple of huge wins – the asylum seeker issue and action on carbon – thanks to the minority government indies and Green showing Gillard & Co the way.
by jaundiced view on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:09 pm
sohar @ 1096
Your generosity in assuming he ever had the plot is noted.
by bemused on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:10 pm
I was hopeful.
Latham got the whole early childhood learning agenda and importance of developmental health. I met him
by confessions on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:11 pm
Who’s got the more irrational hatred of Kevin Rudd? Confessions, or Boerwar?
Maybe it’s a draw between them both.
I’d love to know how Gillard would justify sacking one of her better performing ministers from her cabinet, but of course the anti-Rudd mafia here would be cheering loudly and gloating, and pronouncing Saint Julia as a strong, principled leader.
Yep, the same Julia Gillard who squibs when it comes to ALP party reform, and is little more than the puppet of factional hacks & union thugs.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:11 pm
Dio
When my brother needed fourteen stitches in a gash in his calf muscle no one gave a damn that the person who sewed him up came from Delhi. The super clinic was closer to him than the hospital which would have meant a long car trip and possibly blood transfusion as he was bleeding quite badly. Foreign graduates treating sick and injured when national graduates are too busy, can’t see a problem with that.
by HaveAchat on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:11 pm
Fess @ 1099
Entirely unfair comparison.
Everyone has their flaws and foibles but Latham was and remains in a class of his own.
by bemused on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:12 pm
Oops, pressed post by accident.
I met Latham on one of his campaign trails and he was genuinely interested in early child development.
I’d argue that it was his passion for the issue which set the stage for Rudd/Gillard leadership taking up the policy focus on ECD, which has led to several important national initiatives since Labor has been in office.
by confessions on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:13 pm
jv,
So Bernard Keane is a ‘well known Greens’ spiv’? So how is it I didn’t know?
You are stupid?
Why is Crikey employing such partisan ‘spivs’ in a senior position such as his?
He brings donuts.
Is Crikey generally also a ‘well known’ Green spivs’ hideout? If so, this is serious.
It would be generous to call them “well known”.
Give us more GG.
I gave at the office.
Hmm, but how come Crikey’s PB is dominated by ALP party spivs of the right persuasion
A terrible thing to say about Pegasus!
Is that an internal Crikey aberration?
A terrible thing to say about Pegasus!
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:14 pm
Evan @ 1103
How about we broaden the field to include all irrational hatreds?
You would give them some serious competition.
by bemused on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:15 pm
TLM, take your hand off it.
by Carey Moore on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:16 pm
by Space Kidette on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:16 pm
GG
… and yes, I’ll have a donut
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:16 pm
Thought so
by jaundiced view on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:19 pm
To all those onboard and 100% believers in the MSM ‘naughty’ Rudd obsession and in fact for those of you who care to actually remember Latham’s unravelling with something approaching accuracy all I can say is Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc
… which I have from reliable sources is ancient something or the other for get a life.
by WeWantPaul on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:20 pm
Kevin Rudd only has to take a breath, and he’s accused of being disloyal to Julia Gillard or the ALP in general – that’s an example of the peurile crap that Poll Bludger has descended to.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:20 pm
jv,
Asylum Seekers – To be continued.
Carbon Price and the greens Ha! ha! ha! They got a lesser outcome than the CPRS of two years before. Fairy claps.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:20 pm
So, how many of you found the nine dolphins, last night?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:21 pm
Why indeed?!
William reported earlier that no News ltd outlets had bothered reporting the Hogwart’s fines – clearly they don’t think an $11b black hole in election policy costings is newsworthy. Until it is the ALP, that is!
Fraud!!
by confessions on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:21 pm
SK
Laura Tingle was awarded for her report on the coalition costings. Perhaps she could do a follow up
http://www.walkleys.com/files/media/tingleliarsandclunkheads.pdf
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:22 pm
yep!
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:22 pm
TLM
Dont let the door hit you
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:24 pm
victoria,
It would be good to see. Should definitely getting more scrutiny than it is.
by Space Kidette on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:25 pm
How’s your irrational hatred of Gillard going evan?
by Gary on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:25 pm
Wwp
I take it you are also of the view Rudd is stirring the pot?
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:26 pm
evan
time for a bex and a lie down
by gusface on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:27 pm
he’s feeding on it very well thank you
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:27 pm
pufffyyy, there are more
http://prattpress.pratt.duke.edu/files/prattpress/dolphin_pod_main.jpg
by The Finnigans on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:27 pm
Oh, and your version of an unbiased media is one that never writes anything critical of Julia Gillard, even when she deserves it.
I had to laugh earlier at people tearing strips off Laura Tingle, of all people(she’s hardly what you’d call a pro Abbott journo).
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:27 pm
GG
It’s over. Unless Gillard’s puppeteers are even more serious about losing the next election than I thought.
Not according to Prof Garnaut, and he was the governmnent’s chief advisor. We are going to get 450 ppm by 2050 out of this. We weren’t from the CPRS. We have what was not proposed in 2009. Had Rudd been prepared to talk to the Greens in 2009 Labor could have had this this way back then, and the political world would be a different place
by jaundiced view on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:28 pm
Finnnnnnyyy
They aint in the jar! They escaped!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:29 pm
Only Evan would create such mythical stories to tell the general joe public.
by zoidlord on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:29 pm
Were they??? – who’s got a strip of her? You norty rascals you!
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:29 pm
When Rudd finally realizes he has no chance of taking back the top job is he capable of retiring and causing a by-election in Griffith? Without Rudd that could be a close call.
I think it shows poor judgement to leak that report so soon after the conference snub. Be cautious of an ego driven person if the ego is attacked heavily. Labor are on a roll so why stir the hornets nest?
by DavidWH on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:30 pm
Finns, I don’t see any nudes in that one…
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:30 pm
Puff
I’ve been sailing wih dolphins for the past two weeks. Do you need their names?
by jaundiced view on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:30 pm
Gary: She deserves no credit for using her opening speech to the conference to basically snub her predecessor and attempt to write him out of Labor Party history. That came across as very petty on Ms Gillard’s part.
So no, I’ve got no time for her right now – the only thing she’s got going for her is that she’s preferable to Tony Abbott.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:31 pm
jv,
As always, you have the right to be totally wrong.
You’re very good at that.
Cheers.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:31 pm
You did well George,
This is a bit early, too many delicate petals here now. That stuff is for the graveyard shift.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:31 pm
george
What is hysterical to me is that evan is still pretending to be an ALP supporter
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:31 pm
George, we are always in the nude. have you ever seen us in the monkey suit?
by The Finnigans on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:31 pm
Night bludgers
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:33 pm
damn you pufffyyyy, name names
by The Finnigans on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:33 pm
Finns, as Puffy said, too many children still up for monkey suits!!
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:33 pm
Tingle has leaned a little Labor’s way for years. Hard to imagine PB’ers could find much to complain about with her. Having said that Tingle always writes well thought out and balanced reports.
by DavidWH on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:33 pm
see ya Vic.
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:33 pm
Rudd should retire from parliament. It’s clear he’s only hanging around in order to wreak retribution on the party.
by confessions on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:34 pm
I note this from the article
Lewis Hamilton could do with some of that training after this years performance.
by madcyril on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:34 pm
G;night vic.
by confessions on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:35 pm
And where was the great party reform that Julia promised?
Good luck getting those 8,000 extra members to sign up next year.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:35 pm
evan,
My daughter can’t even remember Rudd was PM. She lives in a political house and will be voting at the next election. So you hold on to your memories. But, the relentless march of time casts you and Ruddistas to a cult status of the dim dark past.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 11:35 pm