Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I think Shorten will have his chance for big policy when we see the development of the NDIS
I believe this may be also Jenny Macklin portfolio area but this is potentially a massive reform.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:59 am
Depending on whether or not Farrell successfully bullies them, I think the only doubts I have about SA ALP MHRs in a SSM vote is Champion and Zappia, on account of the electorates they represent. Butler and Georganas will vote for it. Ellis probably would, considering her electorate and I suspect Rishworth would go the same way.
In the Senate, Farrell definitely will vote against it, Wong definitely for. Gallacher, no idea but I suspect he’s leaning against. McEwen, probably for it. As I said, all depends on whether the DLP thugs lean on the soft Rightists.
As for Xenophon (I know he’s not Labor but he’s a vote that matters), I have no idea but I suspect he’d vote for it.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:59 am
rishane,
[This is a rather interesting editorial in the SMH. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/selfinterest-rules-as-us-circus-makes-mockery-of-democracy-20111205-1ofdg.html
What enables this, and you have to spend time in the US to appreciate it, is just how.. ok what’s the word for it… non-homogenous isn’t strong enough.. Ghettoed? Tribalised? the US is. You only have to cross the street in some cases to be in an entirely different neighborhood. You can also see it going on at a county by county level where the bizarre system of local taxation reinforces local wealth or poverty.
Reminds me of one of my trips to Texas.. being driven down this dirt road. All of a sudden, nice neat tar. I asked why. My company explained “that’s the county line”
by cud chewer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:00 am
So I finally get som etime to check into PB and wht do I find:
And from a a fellow furry critter and 6.5 sstars general as well.
A full apology is required from Gus or I will release the video of him engaged in a sex romp.
The previous attempts at biffo earlier on are but diferences of opinion compared to the shitestorm that be unleashed if a certain lemur does not apologise for his disparaging remarks about our friends in the banana kingdom.
The gloves are off.
The threat is real.
I will release the video.
by Dan Gulberry on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:01 am
daretoread
Gillard should be seen for what she is politically … nothing. That’s what the conference showed us. It proved she has no scope from the bosses – or any ability – for leadership. Once considered a dud; no known to be one.
by jaundiced view on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:02 am
jv,
Once again its time to remark.. “blow it our your arse”
by cud chewer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:03 am
I think Gillard is still a Leftie at heart but more in the blue collar sense than the inner city sense.
Gillard is very much a creature of her seat therefore her voting pattens really shouldn’t surprise.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:03 am
beemer,
at last a sensible comment.
by cud chewer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:04 am
As opposed to her normally being discussed with negatives and negatives?
by rishane on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:05 am
If people want the ALP to lean more to the left, then all you lefties, join the party and dilute the Rights power base.
by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:07 am
cud chewer
I always take abuse of the moderation guidelines like yours as a guide to accuracy in terms of the right’s reaction to what I opine, in the absence of reasoned argument.
by jaundiced view on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:07 am
As for the Libs, if a completely free conscience vote is allowed, in the House you may be able to get Briggs for it. Southcott, possibly but I doubt it. Pyne won’t, despite his faction (his seat is too bible belty and his social views are where a lot of his conservatism lies.) Unlikely any of the 2 country MPs will vote for it.
In the Senate, Birmingham will probably vote for it. Bernadi, against. Fawcett, against. Edwards, no idea but I note Nick Minchin didn’t like him, so perhaps. Fisher, I really have no idea about her personal beliefs, other than her colourful behaviour.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:09 am
Can no longer keep my eyes open. Off to the land of Nod I go!
by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:09 am
Mexican
The NDIS is still a warm and fuzzy issue. easy to deliver. Shorten needs to tackle something challenging with complex competing stakeholders and principles. NDIS is a great idea but it is an easy option and not a test for anyone who fancies themselves PM.
Let him take on Immigration, Industrial Relations, Industry support or even Education, each of which is harder.
by daretotread on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:09 am
SK
Too late. Read Cavaliers’ book. It’s over.
by jaundiced view on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:10 am
My understanding is Gillard is a leftie who was given the opportunity to be PM by a bunch of righties, in return for toeing the line.
I wonder if we’ll see Rann-like epiphanies when she eventually leaves the leadership.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:11 am
And knowing that if she said ‘no’, someone else (most likely Swan) was going to be offered the job.
by rishane on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:13 am
jv,
I’m not from the right, and you’re talking crap. Sometimes a rational argument will suffice, but in your case, I’m just going to settle for telling it like it is.
by cud chewer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:13 am
Mexican
Cannot see what you mean
Dougie Cameron is of the working class left. Julia Gillard is not any where near him in policy terms
by daretotread on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:13 am
Who would’ve lost the election for sure.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:14 am
I take you point for The NDIS issue should be straight forward but I have been around long enough to know that it is the easy stuff that Canberra tends to get itself into trouble on.
The danger is that the NDIS will be set up with the only winners being the Disabled able bodied lobbyist unless the policy is carefully designed.
I think Shorten could do I.R, I am not sure Education suits him but then again a good test for any leader is how they handle things outside their comfort zone
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:14 am
Shorten is Assistant Treasurer. Take a wild guess where his next stop is.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:16 am
daretotread Yes Doug Cameron is from the Left as is Albanese.
Gillard strikes me as being Left wing in a blue collar sense, by this I am referring to her focus being on I.R and Education rather than socially progressive policies Favorited by the inner city left.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:18 am
Graham Richardson:
by William Bowe on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:20 am
I am not sure the market would like Shortan as Treasurer, His reforms to financial planning appear to have hit a raw nerve in some quarters
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:20 am
She’s big on gender equality too, which often seems to get overlooked.
by rishane on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:20 am
Shorten as Treasurer/Shadow Treasurer would be a short term gig to groom him as a leadership successor.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:22 am
I agree with Richo. The ALP need to avoid the mistake of the split years in Victoria when the Liberals held many conference vote against them
I also think Kevin will never return to his leadership, the next Rudd to lead the ALP may well be Jessica Rudd but there is nothing to say she will ever have a seat in Parliament
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:24 am
Teeth will be pervided! (Dave Allen)
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:39 am
Al Jazeera : “GLOBAL SHOCKWAVES: Leaders propose changes to EU treaty.”
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:13 am
Assange wins right to appeal.
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:37 am
Assange has all the appeal of the albino in The Da Vinci code.
by Fulvio Sammut on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:47 am
US local differences and poverty
_______________
Visiting my son’s family in Chicago, I am always struck by the sudden changes in neighbourhoods…from affluence to poverty very guickly…even more so if you travel by train
There are whole areas of the suburbs which are black ghettos and dismal poverty struck regions.. and where one “doesn’t go”…as in San Francisco….while my son lives in a “leafy” almost wholy white suburb…hardly a black face in sight…
His wife is Chinese and one of the few Asians there,and my little grandson looks like his mother’s side…so when I took him to get some icecream the lady on the counter remarked what a polite little fellow he was..”Is he a neighbours child ” she asked me.
..I told her “No” he is my grandson…and left her puzzling over how an old white guy like me might have a very”chinese: grandson..
My grandson who has Australian/US/Chinese passports was unmoved by all this and as befits a citizen of the world,who at 8 speaks English(of a Chicago kind)and Chinese went on munching his huge icecream.
by deblonay on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:51 am
To quote District Attorney Ferguson, ‘I’m appealing, very appealing!” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91albGN1bTg
by rishane on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:52 am
Re Assenge FZ 1281
________
Albino or not.(and is that some sort of reverse color-bar???)..
. Assenge has become a world-wide symbol of the struggle against the liars and fakers and spin-doctors… who inhabit the upper levels of government in most capitals…like Washington/Moscow.Caberra… et al …..
…and the seasoned liars like Blair and others ,and the stupid ones like our very own A>G in Canberra have been revealed too…not to mention Gillard’s curious lack of judgement in the opening stages of the whole affair….I know that will shock some members of the JG Admiration Club on this site …but the truth hurts sometimes !
by deblonay on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:02 am
That’s strange … to me Assange is the world wide classic personification of a bully who put people’s lives at risk by publishing material which he knew would lead to their destruction, who considers the loss of human life as expendable collateral damage to his megalomaniac pursuit of power and influence, and is a two faced hypocrite who believes others should be made responsible for their words and actions, but moves heaven and earth to prevent himself from being held accountable for his own.
But hey, if it gets your rocks off …
by Fulvio Sammut on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:26 am
I went to my daughter’s High School Graduation tonight.
One of the invited luminaries was our Local member, Dennis Jansen.
I was sorely tempted to heckle the bastard, but restrained myself out of a desire not to embarrass my girl on her big night, and out of respect for her school community.
But God, it rankled to see his florid smug countenance beaming at the captive audience.
Anyway, as the night wore on, I took less notice of him, sort of like you learn to ignore an infected boil on your arse if you just sit sideways.
I got my revenge for his very presence there however when the head boy gave his valedictory speech. Straight into it, he was.
The greatest challenge to his generation , he thundered, was global warming. It could not be ignored, and it was up to each and every one of the assembled graduands to do everything in their power to reduce carbon emissions. Denialism was not an option.The world was at risk.
And all the while the smarmy denialist ratbag had to sit there and take it.
by Fulvio Sammut on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:45 am
Re Assenge 1285 FZ
_________
I don’t know and have not heard.
of a single case of anyone whose security or person has been threatened or harmed by Assenge and his revelations of the lies and criminalty of the US political class.
He for instance had an important influence earlier this year in bringing to public attention in Tunisia the links between the US and the despised dictator Ben Ali..all this helped to bring about the overthrow of Ben Ali.
As for the megalomanical pursuit of powers you must havve confused him with Bush or Blair….
…and why end you comment with a snide and really juvenile comment about “getting your rocks off “…that is the sort of tedious personal attack so often used by some on this site when they turn from argument ,however flimsy,to personal attacks.,and silly sexual allusions
Perhaps you have read too many postings from Calebrese and GG.??
Assenge tells us nothing that most sensible people would’nt have guessed already ,but he confirms it.
The liars and their dupes everywhere repeat the same mantra ,but most people see beyond them…some don’t or worse …don’t want to ..as he disturbs their prejudices,,,and as I said the JG Adoration Society here doesn’t want too .either…
by deblonay on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:46 am
You babble on about the “JG Admiration Club” and the “JG Adoration Society”, embue your own proclamations with the profundity of universal truths, all the while propounding that “the truth hurts”. insinuate sexual connotations to an everyday expression which in the venacular translates as”whatevever makes you feel good” and then accuse others of being “juvenile”?
by Fulvio Sammut on Dec 6, 2011 at 4:18 am
Fulvio,
Good to see Your Dennis having to cop it.
Did your high school benefit from the BER and did Dennis take the credit?
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 4:31 am
Shorten is well respected in the Disability sector because he listened, learned and genuinely fought for change and improvement in a difficult and complex area.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 6, 2011 at 4:57 am
The comrades are losing their touch. Just how hard is it to rig an election properly!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-05/putins-party-cling-to-reduced-majority/3713854?section=world
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:32 am
Tlbd
Bad sleeper like moi?
by Otiose on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:55 am
Otiose,
Yep.
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:00 am
What’re your views on Asia TV tender? Poor Roop-the-Snoop?
by Otiose on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:06 am
Excellent!
Interesting to see if the AFP can trace the leak, especially if News Ltd are shown to have been naughty boys.
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:09 am
As the man ages, his footsteps falter
by Otiose on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:14 am
Good morning to the Dawn Patrol and visiting insomniacs.
Predictably Shanahan comes out in the OO with a big spit about the awarding of the Australia Network to the ABC forever. Suck it up Dennis!
Nicholson on gay marriage and the RBA.
http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2011/12/05/1226214/515528-111206-nicholson-cartoon.jpg
This is an interesting proposition. And it would really get under the skin of the Tea Party inspired Coalition.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/swan-tax-shakeup-targets-super-rich-20111205-1ofj9.html
by BK on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:16 am
Good morning all!
Can’t stop; today’s a work day so I have to get my troupe ready. Have fun and behave yourselves!
by Danny Lewis on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:28 am
This is a good article on Gillard’s grace under pressure.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/grace-under-pressure-20111204-1oddl.html
Dick Gross on the science and ethics of the CC debate.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/blogs/godless-gross/faith-science-and-lies-20111202-1oapl.html
A good cartoon from Bruce Petty.
http://images.smh.com.au/2011/12/05/2817429/Pettymonday-620×0.jpg
Alan Moir being not very kind to Julia.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Ron Tandberg does it again.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Ted Baillieu will raise public transport charges by an average 8.6% on 1 January after promising in the election to cut costs for families. Surely this puts Gillard’s CT statement to shame.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieus-sting-on-commuters-20111205-1ofne.html
This kid is going to turn out to be a shocker one would think.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/bali-boy-to-fly-home-tonight/story-e6frea6u-1226213406653
by BK on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:34 am