Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

Monday, December 5, 2011

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.

UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.

UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:

However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

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OzPol Tragic
Posted Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 8:43 am | Permalink
PS and it you think post #1342 means its writer is not quite with it, I’d agree. Very not with it, in fact!

It was fine OPT
but I was curious to know exactly which Bludger you were addressing

by kezza2 on Dec 6, 2011 at 8:54 am
I think Frank was talking about Mattias Cormann. Bernardi is in SA

I’m going back to bed!

by kezza2 on Dec 6, 2011 at 8:55 am
Carey Moore
Posted Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 8:51 am | Permalink

Wow, that company tax proposal is a really great idea.

Doesn’t it.

Looking forward to more detail.

Do nuthin Labor again.

by dave on Dec 6, 2011 at 8:57 am
Damn, kezza! You got my hopes up that he may be leaving!

by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 8:58 am
The owl= Albanese.

The cow=Swan

I might have known that you’d solve Jen’s little riddle, Ian. Well done.

I was thinking the same thing

by jenauthor on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:01 am
CM

Can’t hear you. I’m asleep. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

by kezza2 on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:01 am
Expect a long chorus of “He Lied!” anytime soon

VICTORIAN public transport fares will jump by an average of 8.6 per cent on New Year's Day, in the biggest one-off impost on commuters in nearly a decade.

The price rises - for trains, trams and buses - will in most cases be more than twice the current rate of inflation.

The rises could prove particularly controversial for Premier Ted Baillieu, who campaigned before last year's state election on a promise to cut costs for families.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieus-sting-on-commuters-20111205-1ofne.html#ixzz1fhTsJXh9

I wonder if our radio jocks will mention it.

by Gorgeous Dunny on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:06 am
CM

btw, been meaning to ask you

If you support the sale of uranium to India, does it follow that you support nuclear-generated power in Australia?

by kezza2 on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:07 am
Good Morning Bludgers!

The good Greg Hunt appears on the telly to bag the Australia Network. I hope to god it turns into another Godwin Grech episode.

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:07 am
Article from Gottliebsen fails to mention it was howard who got us into this mess from the start -

Flying into a defence disaster

In the next few months, an event more dramatic for Australia than the export of uranium to India and one ranking alongside the European crisis looks like it will hit our country – the United States is getting closer and closer to abandoning the Joint Strike Fighter.

If they do abandon what was to be our biggest defence purchase it will not only cost around 250,000 jobs around the world (including 5,000 to 10,000 in Australia) but it will also lock in Russian and Chinese air superiority in our region for the foreseeable future.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Joint-Strike-Fighter-JSF-Australian-Air-Force-defe-pd20111206-P9SL6?OpenDocument&src=sph

by dave on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:09 am
Pollytics Possum Comitatus
Of the OECD 27 (minus dodgystat Greece) that had lower inequality than us, our bottom 10% had income growth at least 1.2% higher than others

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:10 am
Gorgeous Dunny

I wonder if our radio jocks will mention it.

They will mention it for sure when they explain how the carbon tax is to blame.

by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:10 am
dan G

Ha

never

george and i pinged dem banana’s

by gusface on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:11 am
heya spaceK

anymore on the 8 mil story?

by gusface on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:12 am
Pollytics Possum Comitatus
That is extraordinary! Maybe it's time we started thinking that Australia has a very unique (and successful) economic system
7 minutes ago

in reply to ↑
Space Kidette
@SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@Pollytics Nah. The #Noalition has said our economy is farqed. I choose to believe those who defraud voters with dodgy budget numbers. #NOT

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:13 am
OPT

r u sure it wasnt the noalitions black hole

by gusface on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:13 am
gussy,

I haven’t found anything to support it. Maybe we’ve been punk’d.

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:14 am
Pollytics Possum Comitatus
Since the mid-1980's, our average household income growth was a full 1% higher than the next OECD27 country that grew sustainably

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:18 am
SpaceKidette Space Kidette
The big black hole you are reporting on belongs to the #NOalition. @BreakfastNews

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:23 am
The culture wars are still in full swing in the good old USA.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/05/fox-news-the-muppets-are-communist_n_1129173.html

by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:26 am
LatikaQT Latika Bourke
The Federal Opposition has asked the Productivity Commission to carry out the review into the Fair Work Act.

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:27 am
Back briefly,

Regarding the Gottleibsen article Dave linked to at 1359, how is the cancellation of the JSF a disaster for Australia? Are we really that scared about Chinese and Russian(???) air superiority in “our region”? Are we in the Sea of Japan?

And can someone please explain to me how 5000 to 10,000 people are employed on the JSF program in Australia now? I find that hard to believe. The thing hasn’t even entered production yet in Australia. DSTO only employs 2300 people in the whole of Australia, on all projects combined.
http://www.dsto.defence.gov.au/page/3277/

If the JSF is cancelled we will save billions, which we can use on other things made in Australia that will employ far more Australains. Gottleibsen has always had a conservative slant, but this is rubbish IMO.

by Socrates on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:28 am
soc

gottlie has been taking hits from the bong

by gusface on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:31 am
The Federal Opposition has asked the Productivity Commission to carry out the review into the Fair Work Act.

So Barnaby can be supplied with more toilet paper?

by confessions on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:31 am
If you support the sale of uranium to India, does it follow that you support nuclear-generated power in Australia?

No, not at the moment. But I am open to opposing (rational and researched) arguments to the contrary.

by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:32 am
SK

I wonder what the secret instructions are this time?

by zoomster on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:35 am
Interesting isn’t it? We have the Baillieu government – that promised the world before the election – insulting its workers with offers of 2.5% pay rises (effectively a cut in real income) while signing off on a 9% rise in public transport prices.

Is it any wonder the number of strikes is on the increase?

by Darn on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:36 am
gusface

soc

gottlie has been taking hits from the bong

With Cypress Hill playing in the background.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atfXQIVuywc

by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:36 am
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/12/05/abc_keeps_contract_skynews_furious/

Australia Network stays in Aunty's lap
Murdoch empire out in cold as tender scrapped
By Natalie Apostolou
Posted in Music and Media, 5th December 2011 21:57 GMT

A short, no BS article in an online technology magazine. Has anyone seen much coverage of the decision on breakfast TV? Saw some of Sunrise, they didn’t seem to mention it at all. I notice the West Australian only seems to have the AAP reports, the owners care little either way no doubt.

by Leroy on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:36 am
kezza2

On a very positive note, Daniel Morcombe’s family, friends and supporters must take some consolation from news that his death was not in vain Morcombe campaign helps prevent abduction Congratulations to them, Q Police & Q Government for turning a tragedy into a long campaign to stop other parents having to go through the same dreadful ordeal.

"Daniel Morcombe's parents came to visit her school last week so she knew what to do in that situation, so I am just grateful that she is safe."

On a more political note (not that the Morcombe campaign, in showing what family, communities, police and politics can achieve when they combine in a worthy cause, isn’t political) Carbon links to EU, NZ forged, as we Bludgers knew Combet would. So much for Abbott’s, NewsLtd etc claiming Australia shouldn’t be leading the world and No one else is doing it crap. All lies, of course; which they knew at the time, but still lied about it.

AUSTRALIA has formalised its negotiations with the EU and New Zealand to link carbon trading markets regardless of what happens in negotiations for a global climate change agreement in Durban this week.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet arrived in the South African city yesterday and held his first meetings with senior officials from the US and Japan.

Mr Combet will make a statement on Australia's position on a future global agreement when the leadership round starts on Wednesday. He is also expected to take a role in a special series of high-level but less formal discussions, called an indaba, established by the South African hosts.

Perhaps now, with parliamentary politics on holidays, we might get more reportage on Durban, not have to rely on OS newspapers. Combet will be on a well-deserved high.

Perhaps, Bludgers to the left of Ghengis Khan might like to reflect that what created the formidable Don’t mess with Greg Combet Climate Minister was the Waterside War. So John Howard and Peter Reith can claim at least one positive long-term achievement from the Howard years!

by OzPol Tragic on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:38 am
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3384263.htm

Australia Network decision a fait accompli: commentators
Alison Caldwell reported this story on Tuesday, December 6, 2011 08:03:00

by Leroy on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:39 am
gus

OK. Have it your way.

As promised here is the video of gus being norty with an unknown female.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYizymYeJEU

by Dan Gulberry on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:40 am
Socrates
Posted Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 9:28 am | Permalink

Gottleibsen has always had a conservative slant, but this is rubbish IMO.

As I said yesterday he & Kohler are increasingly being pulled up by people commenting on their articles and factual errors.

Possible cancellation of the JSF by the US though is significant news. RAAF really preferred the F22 all along.

Maybe they might just get it.

Socs – See #1335 Grantham, if your interested.

by dave on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:43 am
http://thepage.time.com/2011/12/05/ap-quayle-to-endorse-romney/

Quayle to Endorse Romney
Monday, December 5, 2011

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/worldview/wheres-the-love-for-mitt-romney/article2260290/

Where’s the love for Mitt Romney?
KONRAD YAKABUSKI
Washington— Globe and Mail Update
Posted on Monday, December 5, 2011 12:20PM EST

While Newt Gingrich basks in unexpected adulation from a Republican electorate once thought to have written him off as yesterday’s man, the rank-and-file and U.S. media alike seem incapable of focusing on anything but Mr. Romney’s perceived flaws.

Is Mr. Romney shaping up to become the Hillary Clinton of 2012, the “inevitable” party nominee who blows it all in the end?

More in each article

by Leroy on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:45 am
Lyne Lady

Posted Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 7:49 am | Permalink

fran having a love-in with malcolm right now – she’s a disgrace…

As I no longer listen to RN, because as I told the ABC I was fed up with FK(Plus MG) unconcealed Liberal bias after the 2010 election. Won’t she go on holidays soon and is she coming back next year?

by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:45 am
dan

I invoke the Bill Clinton defence

by gusface on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:49 am
http://www.theage.com.au/business/swan-tax-shakeup-targets-super-rich-20111205-1ofj9.html

Another article on the Tax plans.

Swan tax shake-up targets super rich
Peter Martin
December 6, 2011

A WORKING group set up by the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, is planning a shake-up that would see most companies pay no corporate tax and a smaller number pay a much higher rate of "super tax" on profits clearly above the odds.
If fully implemented the change would render the minerals resource rent tax redundant.
Addressing a tax conference at the University of Canberra, the head of Treasury's revenue group, Rob Heferen, compared the change to the introduction of the GST in 2000. He said this would be a more radical change, if more worthwhile.

More in the article. The other article on the same topic I posted earlier is below.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/zero-tax-proposed-for-most-companies-20111205-1ofk3.html

by Leroy on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:51 am
AUSTRALIA has formalised its negotiations with the EU and New Zealand to link carbon trading markets regardless of what happens in negotiations for a global climate change agreement in Durban this week.

Isn’t California also putting a price on carbon? Although only one state in the US, it’s economy is bigger than Australia’s.

by kakuru on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:51 am
OzPol Tragic

would. So much for Abbott’s, NewsLtd etc claiming Australia shouldn’t be leading the world and No one else is doing it crap. All lies, of course; which they knew at the time, but still lied about it.
AUSTRALIA has formalised its negotiations with the EU and New Zealand to link carbon trading markets regardless of what happens in negotiations for a global climate change agreement in Durban this week.

I think we will soon add China to the list.When that Chinese big kahuna was here earlier in the year he mentioned his desire that the Chinese carbon trading system be able to work with Australia’s by 2015. As for China doing nothing they are now looking to put an absolute cap on their emmissions by 2020. Also by 2013 two provinces, Guangdong and Hubei, and five cities, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Beijing, Chongqing and Shanghai should be trading. Oh and Combet for PM !!!

by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:51 am
r u sure it wasnt the noalitions black hole

cue http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bzWSJG93P8

But isn’t the noalition’s even bigger?

Besides, I’ve a soft spot for really classy villains, and that black rig screams CLASS!. Abbott’s Mob ain’t got nooo class!

by OzPol Tragic on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:55 am
gus

What, that you didn’t inhale?

by Dan Gulberry on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:57 am
mari:

The only time I listen to RN Breakfast is when Fran Kelly’s on holidays.

by confessions on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:58 am
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/12/06/merkozy-bands-together-to-save-the-euro/

Tuesday, 6 December 2011
Merkozy bands together to save the euro
by Amber Jamieson

Media wrap, links to various articles

by Leroy on Dec 6, 2011 at 9:58 am
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/leaders-cant-relax-on-holiday-break-20111205-1ofk1.html#ixzz1fh8dwVaX
Thank you BB for my fix. This is the comment I sent to her, doubt if it will be published but:

Iam sure Michelle, Julia Gillard is grateful for your usual warning that she is almost finished as Prime Minister, think you have been warning her since the last election! Perhaps you should cease your "friendly" warnings to her and let her govern as Prime Minister until the next election?

by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 10:00 am
Pollytics Possum Comitatus
Our reality.We're the wealthiest nation in the world http://bit.ly/n9FMw2 with the highest income growth at all levels http://bit.ly/rxdr5A
30 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 10:00 am
Pollytics Possum Comitatus
Our reality.We’re the wealthiest nation in the world bit.ly/n9FMw2 with the highest income growth at all levels bit.ly/rxdr5A

by gusface on Dec 6, 2011 at 10:00 am
A $3 million car crash: Ferraris, Lamborghini, Mercedes.

http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1070187_eight-ferraris-crash-in-expensive-pile-up-in-japan-video

by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 10:02 am
confessions

Posted Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 9:58 am | Permalink

mari:

The only time I listen to RN Breakfast is when Fran Kelly’s on holidays.

That is why I am trying to find out when she goes on holidays so I can tune in again

by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 10:02 am
PaulBongiorno Paul Bongiorno
Federal cabinet were the mop and bucket brigade late yesterday. More than one minister sees it as cleaning up the PM Rudd remnants

by confessions on Dec 6, 2011 at 10:04 am
Pollytics Possum Comitatus
Our reality.We're the wealthiest nation in the world bit.ly/n9FMw2 with the highest income growth at all levels bit.ly/rxdr5A
5 minutes ago

Stephen Koukoulas
TheKouk Stephen Koukoulas
@
@Pollytics At the risk of being self indulgent... http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com/2011/12/austra…
3 minutes ago

in reply to ↑
Possum Comitatus
@Pollytics Possum Comitatus
@TheKouk Please do!

by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 10:06 am

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