Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Carey Moore
Although he may get the card featuring a cactus rather than an xmas tree
by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Carey,
I have given christmas cards and gifts to colleagues I have wanted booted and continued to work professionally with them. If it was necessary to like all I worked with, many of my projects would have failed!
by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Well Kezza, I imagine parties would want certain core values represented and voters would feel more assured if they know that the candidate they vote for isn’t totally opposite that value but, for the most part, MPs (in all parties) should be able to vote their hearts and minds, not their orders.
Perhaps a more open preselection process that was less interrupted by the Executive and bosses would be required first, to make sure that party members can de-select those who they see as too against the party and/or too unsuitable for that electorate.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:33 pm
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
I find the circus re the awarding of the Australia Network to the ABC hilarious. The real news would've been explaining it going to Murdoch.
[
by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:33 pm
She should send them a copy of Journalism for Dummies instead.
by Son of foro on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Actually, the kind of crap that they imply Rudd and Gillard (and supporters thereof) are getting up to, in order to sabotage each other, is very unprofessional. The fact that they assume that kind of ethic exists says a lot about the journos’ workplace professionalism.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Son of foro,
This one http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1592576702/ref=sib_dp_pt#reader-link
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Carey,
Well said.
by Space Kidette on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Son of foro
This looks like the go and only $19.95 !
http://www.amazon.com/Complete-Idiots-Guide-Journalism/dp/1592576702/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1323135359&sr=1-1
by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:38 pm
I reckon Albo and Rudd should swap jobs. Then Rudd would be in charge of infrastructure for roads and rail. He could then build as many bridges as he likes to get over himself.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Well that would put paid to election promises so could be a good thing.
But, seriously, it wouldn’t work. Unless you’re into anarchy
by kezza2 on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:40 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/turnbull-joins-liberals-push-to-allow-conscience-vote-on-same-sex-marriage/story-fn59niix-1226215000670
by MTBW on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:41 pm
I bet there is more talk of Rudd and Gillard here than out in the community. I’m sure most couldn’t give a fig about it. They’ve heard it all before and nothing has happened.
by Gary on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:41 pm
I fear you’re right. The only way it could work is if all parties agreed to it and MPs from both sides were willing to be open-minded to legislation and willing to compromise, rather than just trying to undermine them.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Carey Moore @ 1505
I agree with you and SK as well!
by MTBW on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:43 pm
It should never have gone to tender. A stuff up. Ugly, but now rectified. Thank Cod.
Sky/News: Your chook is in the mail.
by Scringler on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:44 pm
There’s one party that boasts about giving their mps free rein when it comes to voting in parliament. The irony is that it could be that one party that prevents its mps having a conscience vote.
by Gary on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:44 pm
TLBD and Poroti
They certainly are complete idiots, seems the perfect gift.
by Son of foro on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Turnbull calls for a conscience vote on SSM in contradiction of the known wishes of his Leader, and no-one in the MSM bats at eyelid, let alone accuses him of running a campaign of destabilisation designed to unseat his successor.
Rudd agrees with his Leader on the calls for a conscience vote on SSM and on uranium sales to India, but he is nonetheless accused of mounting a challenge to her leadership in some as yet to be determined month in the future because he was seen frowning at the ALP conference.
Is there a disconnnect here in regard to media reportage of these issues, and the relative weight given to the manifest facts?
Surely this can’t be an example of media bias, can it?
by The Big Ship on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:52 pm
TBS, considering that the great financial fraud of 2010 still goes without a whisper mentioned of it in most rags, my reaction to this is one of little to no surprise at all.
Had, it been Rudd that defied Gillard on the conscience call, all the news channels would already be running special “Labor Leadership Challenge 2011″ news coverage
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:55 pm
May next year was the month given to the msm by Rudd/Rudd backers.
But yes, MT’s comments should be put to Abbott in the frame of leadership tensions in the same way the msm put similar questions to Gillard about Rudd.
by confessions on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:56 pm
TLM @ 1449
Incorrect – Craig Thomson would need to be convicted after appeal for his position in Parliament to be forfeit, and that process, if charges are ever laid against him, will take potentially years to be played out.
by The Big Ship on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:58 pm
I wonder if Geoffrey Phillip Kid and Cyrus Patell have been removed from Joe Hockey’s Christmas card list?
(WHK Horwath = We Had Kudos Horwath)
by Inner Westie on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:59 pm
I remember a month or so ago that it was gonna happen “within the fortnight”
The only opinion that actually matters on this is the Caucus’
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Assuming that such exist that would actually force him to leave. But hope springs eternal for some.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:01 pm
Unfortunately, written by an American person. Try Harold Evans.
by Scringler on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:05 pm
As always, very funny GG
.
by ltep on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Gary
RU talking about the Greens Party?
Your use of the word “boast” is obviously for negative emotive effect.
Conscience votes are part of the Greens constitution but by all means clutch at straws if u think Greens parliamentarians will not be able to exercise a conscience vote.
The Greens see marriage equality as an issue of discrimination and human rights, not an issue to do with religion.
Why would any Greens parliamentarian oppose marriage equality legislation?
by Pegasus on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:07 pm
I presume all the people who were arguing it would be unconscionable for Labor to allow a conscience vote on marriage equality are also strongly against the Coalition allowing a conscience vote.
by ltep on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:07 pm
There have been numerous timeframes offered. End of September, end of October, end of November, Easter, the Budget, a fortnight from now etc etc. And usually coinciding with NEwspoll weekends.
by confessions on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:07 pm
I thought it was clear he was talking of the Liberal Party.
by ltep on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Pegasus
I read Gary’s comment as referring to the Libs, but I’m sure he will clarify
by madcyril on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:09 pm
For all we know there are real divisions in the Greens party over same sex marriage, but until the party opens up its conferences to the public gaze, we’ll never know.
by confessions on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Murdoch?
by Son of foro on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:11 pm
Its like a end-of-the-world prophecy. Whenever the day arrives with no such event, just shift the dates and have the true believers follow along.
by rishane on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:11 pm
ABC Radio news just now:
The PM says she has no intention of releasing the full Review Report.
Martin Ferguson together with one other MP whose name I can’t recall are saying that the Report should be released in full. Martin saying that as a former Vice President of the NSW State Branch he should have access to know what it contains.
Martin says that very few people have seen the report and since the press are reporting on what is in it he would like to see for himself.
by MTBW on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:12 pm
Breaking news.
The WA Supreme Court rules attempts by WA Government to extinguish native title for LNG project near Broome invalid.
Spaghetti meet fan!
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:14 pm
Smile thingy.
by Scringler on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:16 pm
This is what I put to Samatha M in her article a few days ago, in my comment, It wasn’t
published funny that!
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:20 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/mottram-replaces-cameron-on-morning-show-20111206-1og9x.html
by MTBW on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:21 pm
Just on MT, he’s also given a couple of speeches about US-Australia-China relations, an issue which is outside of his portfolio responsibility. This should be seen as under-cutting JBishop at the very least, or at worst, contradicting his leader and his party’s policy position on the US and China.
Yet the only media commentators to ark up about it have been Greg Sheridan and Miranda Devine. The rest of the msm has all but ignored his speeches, much less made the usual leap for them of ‘leadership tensions!!!’.
by confessions on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:22 pm
How did Gillard respond to the stupid questions about Rudd?
by Darn on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:22 pm
Because that will give you a general idea of the ideology of the individuals likely to be nominated by that party, assuming that the party’s internal system is functioning correctly. Labor is a perfect example of what happens when it’s internal system is not functioning correctly – people think they are voting for a modern, progressive party and then get a bunch of socially right wing religious fruitcakes who oppose positions supported by the majority of Australians on a number of issues (gay marriage and euthanasia, to name two).
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:23 pm
1410 Pegasus
So… as I interpret yours and SHY’s positions, a conscience vote is a good thing when you are supporting SSM and the party is opposing it, but it is indefensible when the party supports it but you have personal reservations, even if the party allows conscience voting.
Got it, I think…
by Gorgeous Dunny on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:23 pm
Violence.
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:23 pm
Son of foro,
Well, yes. Last I heard, News hacks are now responsible
for training would-be reporters. Hence, the bimbo plague.
It’s so sad the ABC has joined the queue.
by Scringler on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:24 pm
But this is how it works in most parliamentary democracies. Australia is unusual in that the whip rules with an iron fist on every vote. Once a party has a majority, we might as well have no parliamentary sittings as they will get everything they want through anyway.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:25 pm
MTBW: I guess we should be relieved that Annabelle Crabb didn’t get the radio gig.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Patrick
Spot on!
by MTBW on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Carey,
Typical exaggeration. She only threatened Chinese burns.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 6, 2011 at 1:27 pm