Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
“for” not “from”, quick before you pick it up Ducky
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:42 pm
by Son of foro on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Link to the RBA statement.
http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2011/mr-11-28.html
A few things that caught my eye. Quite a definitive comment on commodity prices peaking (which is a not unnatural corollary of the enormous investment in capacity increases); but another way of saying this could be “its as good as it gets”
This is not the editorial line coming out of the AFR:
Will banks “pass on” the decrease; some speculation a few weeks ago that maybe not
House (and share) prices figuring in the equation?
by Laocoon on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Not according to Solomon Lew. He said -0.25 wouldn’t do anything so it would have to be -0.5.
by triton on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Interest rates now 2.5% below when Howard lost office.
Eyes on the banks to pass it all on!
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Of course, if Abbott was PM right now, the interest rates would actually be lower! Election now!
by Carey Moore on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:48 pm
GG, the banks are not expected to pass it all on except NAB.
by triton on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:48 pm
I’d love to see a joint venture company between McCrann and Mackerras – what could go wrong there?
These two remind me of Colonel Cargill from Catch 22 – “A person misplaced, disorganized, miscalculated, overlooked everything and opened every loophole, and just when he thought he had it made, the government gave him a lake or a forest or an oilfield and spoiled everything. Even with such handicaps, Colonel Cargill could be relied on to run the most prosperous enterprise into the ground. He was a self-made man who owed his lack of success to nobody.”
by The Big Ship on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:49 pm
And woolies.
by jenauthor on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:49 pm
by jenauthor on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:52 pm
TBS,
They could use Horwaths as their accountants. That’ll see them right!
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:53 pm
I wonder what part of the spin cycle Fran and Michelle will be on tomorrow morning.
by This little black duck on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Not voting at all is a valid option in a genuinely free country. Freedom of thought/conscience includes the right not to participate or express a view.
Our pathetic duopoly of a voting system denies people this right.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Not if you don’t want its full value passed on to the ALP or LNP.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:57 pm
PB
It certainly is. So should not enrolling to vote be.
by triton on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
1/2 Another beautiful Set of Numbers – RBA Interest rate 4.25% Vs 6.75% when Howard was voted out #auspol
1 minute ago
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
2/2 Another Set of Beautiful Numbers – No interest rise for the 12th consecutive month Vs 10 consecutive rises under Howard/Costello #auspol
12 seconds ago
Interest Rate Will Always Be Lower Under Labor
by The Finnigans on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Someone should get Abbott and Hockey dictionaries for christmas. For the meaning of the word “Always”, strike out the written definition and say:
“Always (adverb) 1. all of the time 2. (Australian Liberal Paty slang) any time that Wayne Swan or John Howard are not treasurer”.
by Socrates on Dec 6, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Thanks for the link to the presser, mari.
JG is so damn good at pressers
wish it would translate to set speeches.
by kezza2 on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:00 pm
Bemused you have defended the compulsory preferencing system here before, I prefer to vote formally however I think it is a fault of the system that does not allow someone to do so without preferencing one or other major parties. Anyway we have to just agree to disagree, it doesn’t look like I’ll change your mind and you certainly haven’t said anything to change mine. If you can’t see how fundamentally undemocratic it is to force someone to vote for all but one candidate by holding their freely and clearly expressed prefernce to ransom, then I don’t think there’s anything more I can say to you. Pegasus isn’t silly for voting informally, as everyone keeps trying to convince me that is the only true freedom s/he has under our system (s/he is not free to abstain, not free to ‘register only’ and then leave the voting place, not free to vote for his/her preferred candidate without supporting a candidate she does not endorse). In my view it is the system that is silly for not giving her those freedoms. Can’t post any more, feel free to reply if you like and I will have to read it later.
by shiftaling on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:01 pm
TLBD @ 1611
Extreme fluff dry?
by The Big Ship on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:02 pm
They’ll still be on the rinse cycle. Spin is just too difficult.
by jenauthor on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:03 pm
And so lousy at set pieces.
by triton on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:04 pm
Jokes aside the interest rates cut is good news, and well timed. It would have been too late to influence christmas trading to wait another month.
Also, if Possum’s analysis of interest rates versus government 2PP was correct back in 2007, this should further help Gillard in the polls. It certainly won’t hurt recent momentum.
by Socrates on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Bushfire Bill, if you’re about, are you able to recommend a good quality hdmi switcher which also has optical audio inputs/outputs?
by george on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Let me repeat – “ALP best manager of money, history shows” – George Megalogenis – http://bit.ly/jD9jYf – #auspol
34 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:06 pm
The Finnigans
Looks impressive if you express is as Howard’s interest rates being 159 % higher than Labor.
by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:07 pm
The flip side of the rate cut for retailers is, if their sales are still down now, they can’t blame the government. They will have to look squarely at their own business models and failure to utilise online shopping to boost their own sales, rather than see it as a threat.
by Socrates on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:08 pm
From memory, Terry McCrann wrote for The Age (Fairfax) during the 1980s. He was then
regarded with respect, possibly due to the high quality of sub-editing at that time.
He jumped ship and went to the Ferald-Sun. No one read him after that.
by Scringler on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:09 pm
Patrick Bateman @ 1612
Indeed it is, much as I hold in contempt those that so easily throw away a hard won freedom to vote.
But please do explain how voting informal or ‘not voting at all’ expresses your electoral preference for the Greens? Now that one really has me baffled.
by bemused on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:09 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Malcolm Turnbull is holding a LIVE Presser, openly challenging Abbott now. #auspol #LibSpill is definitely on.
9 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:14 pm
Scringler
Yes, he was with The Age and was much better then. The HS seems to have turned him into Mr Hyde.
by triton on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:15 pm
shiftaling @
Quite to the contrary.
Voters for a minor party get to exercise that right and then when that party fails to get sufficient votes, they effectively get to vote again to choose, what is for them, ‘the lesser of the evils’ of the parties remaining.
This allows them to register their preferred party, get some public funding allocated to that party, and then get to nominate ‘the least bad’ out of the remaining parties. A pretty good deal I would have thought and not one to be so dismissive about.
by bemused on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:15 pm
This is so cringeworthy – the media companies should start docking pay for stupidity/incompetence/sloth, whatever the cause
by Laocoon on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Kezza2 (1617)
Glad you liked it, did you like the comment back to Michelle? Think you comment is, right JG is so good in Pressers, evidently personal meetings and Parliament but set pieces?
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:16 pm
I support compulsory voting. It means that political parties don`t need huge get out the vote campaigns which cost a lot of money. People who do not want to vote for any of the candidates can always vote informal (even though it is almost always conter productive to any political aim). It also makes intimidating people out of voting (although this is not such an issue in Australia) much harder.
by Tom the first and best on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:17 pm
One has to feel sorry for those conservatives being ganged up on in ‘Miranda Devine World:’
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/another-the-monthly-another-hatchet-job-on-a-conservative/story-e6frezz0-1226213064782
Poor old Cory, unable to defend himself, has La Boca Grande Devine riding to his rescue, and she also bravely goes into the breech to shield the unshieldable Bolt from the slings and arrows of outrageous left wing attacks.
The Culture Wars are over? Not in Devine’s tiny mind.
by The Big Ship on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:19 pm
Laocoon
Posted Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 3:15 pm | Permalink
mari
Posted Tuesday, December 6, 2011 at 2:25 pm | Permalink
http://www.skynews.com.au/video/?vId=2899794&cId=Programs&play=true
Julia Gillar’d press conference
This is so cringeworthy – the media companies should start docking pay for stupidity/incompetence/sloth, whatever the cause
I assume you mean the likes of Michelle Grattan and some of the others, but loved when asked is she sending KR a Christmas card , she finished the answer by saying (paraphhrasing) she was going to review the journos christmas cards depending on today? She wouldn’t have to send out hardy any with some of the standard shown today?
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:21 pm
Thank heavens she went back to her true home, ie The Terror and left the SMH
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Surely that is an illegitimate interest rate announcement from the RBA.
It hasn’t been given a fully legal audit by Hogwarts.
by BK on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:25 pm
Tony Abbott supports the traditional position in marriage. Wot
by ruawake on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:25 pm
rua
The Missionary position?
by BK on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:26 pm
I reckon so.
by ruawake on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:27 pm
just watched mt’s presser – just hope he stays where he is – leaves ta for dead….
by Lyne Lady on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:27 pm
Lyne Lady
Was there anything explosive in MT’s presser?
by BK on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:28 pm
triton,
Yes, that’s how I remember it. He took the King’s shilling.
+++
Watching MT press conference. He looks crook.
by Scringler on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Heck in most case it doesn’t matter, your vote won’t be used even if it was accepted as valid, as they are looking for votes to split the leaders. If it does matter it won’t matter who you preference second.
In other words in most case, don’t fill in any squares, same result, save some black-lead. If it does matter and you care then your the fool.
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:31 pm
Turnbull made a good point, theoretically Lib back benchers can cross the floor without any action being taken, but front benchers cannot. So he let Tony know that a concience vote would allow shadowy ministers to vote against party policy.
by ruawake on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Bemused @1631
I could not agree more!
I find it hard to believe that any green voter would be unable to develop a preference for the ALP over the coalition.
To suggest that the ALP and coalition are both equally objectionable suggests a blend of petulance and laziness.
Anyone who is really in that position should stop huffing and puffing and google Albie Langer for the solution to their problem.
by Jolyon Wagg on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Tom the first and best
Too bad. They only have to spend that money because they fail to inspire people without doing so. They should have to persuade people that any of them are worth voting for.
by triton on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:37 pm
Isn’t the langer vote now illegal.
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 3:38 pm