Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Patrick Bateman
Well said.
Jaundiced View – Proportional representation – Where are you?
by Pegasus on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:50 pm
The subtlety being, as Jackol pointed out, that there is some merit in making people show up even if they are only showing up to say “none of you, thanks”.
But as posted above, I agree – in an ideal world voting itself would be non-compulsory, but real world considerations mean that I think at least showing up should be a requirement.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Just been out for a walk with The Atomic Dog, Bob.
Walking back through the bush, I saw two flies crawling up an old retaining wall down at the creek.
Anyone care to argue about that?
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Why do you believe they need to be “granted”?
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Patrick Bateman
We are covering a wide range of topics tonight.
A bill of rights moves power from parliament to the courts, nothing more. I am quite ambivalent to the whole thing.
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Bemused, your impulse to disrobe suggests you found some of my lines pleasantly disturbing! If otherwise please forgive any offence given.
I did think twice about using those references to royalty when I pulled up and edited that old pome which was originally written in defence of the Greens in response to discussion around this sort of thing http://gothamist.com/2011/04/22/earth_day_is_going_green_too_girly.php.
If I weren’t an old rusted on Labour Party red I would be supporting the Greens on most issues, except that I know things have to get done. The greens just won’t compromise. On marriage equality, for all the criticism of Julia Gillard’s stand, without her management the issue would not be coming before Parliament so soon. My Green friends liked the original pome, by the way, and none were offended by terms I used.
While on things Green I do wish S HY would shut up and think through the practicalities of her idealism about the rights of refugees to drown themselves and their children in seeking asylum here. Less volubly vocal, but just as misguided about this in my view is my own MHR, a former UN human rights advocate. I am hopeful that Bowen and the PM will continue working together with other governments in consultation with UNHCR to come up with a regional processing centre which is practical, fair and ends the exploitation of human misery by people smugglers.
by PatriciaWA on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Jail
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:53 pm
Bushfire
Was the bigger fly the faster? Or the smaller fly the left-leaning one?
by lizzie on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:53 pm
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/the-most-powerful-photos-of-2011?sort=posted&z=2NNLJ6
Stop arguing and look at these images and be thankful you are here in Australia!
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:54 pm
The media screams RBA rate cut = xmas present. Except it wont be passed on to mortgage payers until January.
by ruawake on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:54 pm
Jackol:
I agree that it should be possible for large numbers of votes to go elsewhere, and it can happen (e.g. the UK, Canada… although what system do they have in terms of compulsory/preferential?). I think there is something decidedly broken about our system in light of the dominance of the two majors. OTOH, if a half decent small-l liberal party emerged and stuck around for a while (liberal but credible on both economic and social policy) I reckon they would seriously erode both Labor and Liberal.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Agreed. Optional preference voting, informal voting, compulsory voting, how Greens rationalise their voting … a bit boring after a while. Finns was right. A bit of old-fashioned biffo is preferable.
Trouble is, a lot are a bit spent after another dose of ruddstoration.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:55 pm
And courts are nothing but a mechanism for individuals to enforce rights.
I have some professional experience of both the judicial system and the federal parliamentary system. I can tell you who I would prefer to look after my interests, and it’s not politicians.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:56 pm
fredn
Who are the people in society who confer these rights and decide which rights are selected for which groups of people? The homeless? the poor? the disadvantaged?….. Or the powerful? The wealthy?…..
The tyranny of the majority on every issue? Public majority opinion? If so, why haven’t we got marriage equality?
by Pegasus on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:56 pm
BB:
You see any white ants? If so, I’d say that second fly is undermining the first one.
by Aguirre on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:56 pm
So long as there are only two main flies and you have to choose one of them, most people are apparently happy.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:57 pm
Or the right to die.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:57 pm
I thought the one on the right was bigger, but Bob went for the other one. So we stopped and argued the toss. Cozzie (Bob’s little step-brother) got bored. He’s more interested in chasing lizards.
Well, I wasn’t going to move until Bob agreed that my flie was bigger than his. Cozzie just wanted to chase reptiles.
We were so busy arguing that I reckon I missed a good ten minutes of the Great Formal Vote Debate.
That’s ten minutes of our lives we got back for free, standing in a beautiful little stand of ferns, next to a babbling brook with lorikeets and King Parrots waving through the fronds near us.
Bah! I’d rather argue about the two flies.
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:58 pm
PatriciaWA
Ever? On everything?
Just a meme.
by Pegasus on Dec 6, 2011 at 5:59 pm
I think one was a boy fly and the other was a girl fly.
Whatever the truth, the one on the right looked might keen on injecting something into the other (and I don’t think it was fly saliva).
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:00 pm
Patrick Bateman,
Have to go.
Keep up the good fight
by Pegasus on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:00 pm
BB:
Did one of the flies have red hair and the other slightly resemble the Milky Bar Kid ? If so then that could get a good argument going.
by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:02 pm
We have the right to kill ourselves.
by ruawake on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:02 pm
I looked, I think i will go back to arguing, it’s been a rough years.
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:03 pm
Thought she would have to going onto the RBA Board
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:04 pm
fredn, Zoomster
Sorry I really should have added a smiley face or something else to my 1726 to make my joke more obvious. The suggestion of an entitlement mentality applying to the $2.30 per vote for the Greens was meant to be humorous. Apology for the confusion.
by Socrates on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:04 pm
I hear Warwick McKibben was seen with steam coming out of his ears.
by ruawake on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Let out all your pent up emotions or something?
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Reports are filtering in that NASA has discovered a planet not unlike Earth. Trouble is, it would take about 600 light years to check it out for signs of life. That’s a long wait. I don’t buy it.
Call me a bug-eyed denialist if you will – fair cop – but the aliens are right here …
by Scringler on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:05 pm
Speaking of feminine sanity
Given that women make up half the population and therefore so do men,
I reckon each constituency should vote for 1 female and 1 male representative (they can job share) and they don’t have to belong to the same party!
That should throw the cat among the bluddy pigeons – and keep the bastards honest at the same time.
by kezza2 on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:06 pm
That is why politics is important! I would also suggest that legislation won’t give you marriage equality, I said society and I meant society.
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Wouldn’t that be something
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:08 pm
I like the preferential system as it emulates runoff elections without the necessity of holding multiple elections. However at a true runoff election one would have the option of voting informal at the subsequent elections. This is not possible under the compulsory preferencing system. I firmly believe that a vote not given freely (such as the distribution of preferences after your truly preferred candidates are exhausted) is not a Free democratic vote at all. And before people jump on the idea of voting informally, don’t forget that casting an informal vote is held up as a freedom by those who argue for compulsory voting. Remove that freedom and there are no free aspects to the process at all. I agree though that informal voting really doesn’t achieve anything. It would only do so if enough people were so opposed to the electoral process itself that they did so en masse, which is clearly not the case and i am not advocating it
by shiftaling on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:09 pm
But why pick on sex, how about a 5ft representative and a 6ft representative, or a fat and thin, or a red head and a blond, perhaps a young and an old.
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Patrick Bateman,
“It’s like this blog is actually being used to discuss the electoral system, instead of having a bunch of mostly moderate to right Labor types banging on about:
- the meeja and how they all hate Labor
– KRudd and how he is/isn’t destabilising Gillard
– Abbott and how he’ll implode/unhinge any second now
– how the polls show Labor winning the next election by 100 to 0 if the trends continue”
Wrong. What this blog has largely become is a mob of shit on the liver ex Labor voters who didn’t get every single thing they wanted planted for them in their own little garden, so they stamped their feet and left.
They now live in a world where they think that being part of the 10-12% of Green voters, that eventually passes on around 75% of that puny vote to Labor, gives them a right to complain bitterly about how Labor has “lost it’s soul”. Of course, they will never admit that although every compromise Labor makes that reduces their fantasy world of wish lists for unlimited asylum seekers, unlimited new (and probably free) public transport, no uranium sales and, naturally, that old stand-by that bores the rest of us rigid, gay marriage, those compromises actually keep the real wolf, ie Abbott, at bay.
But, no. All they want to do is whinge. Mainly about a PM who was knifed before he could lead the party to a crushing defeat because of his own monumental ego and incompetence. But also to have an imaginary vote where they don’t get their dainty little fingers dirty by giving another party their preference. And, almost all of them will tell us how they were once tireless workers for the cause, and shook Gough’s hand, and handed out how to vote cards but now, to a man and woman, they will get on here and bitch and whine about the only thing standing between them and an Abbott led government. With all the thrills that will bring.
I don’t know why Gillard simply doesn’t tell the lot of you to shove it up your collective arses and walks away. You certainly don’t deserve any better.
by Roy Orbison on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:11 pm
kezza’
How about a full karyotype of the individuals is published, we could have men pretending to be women, that would stuff the whole idea.
by ruawake on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:12 pm
Scringler
Ah, so you know about the Lizard People then ?
by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:12 pm
No; the photos tell a very sad story.
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Kezza re male female candidates – that’s a fascinating and provocative concept. Not sure that I would support it but would love to know what the parliament would look like under that system!
by shiftaling on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Simple- men/women about 50% each of the population, 6 ft what % 5ft what % of the population and so on with your examples
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:13 pm
The difference of course being that, in the Jackol case, the verdict is “you didn’t vote”. In yours, it would be “you did”.
In the first, the message is: you didn’t take part in the process so we ignore you
In the second, it’s: you didn’t take part in the process and we accept that
Different messages, very different. If the point of compulsory voting is to compel the entire electorate to decide who runs the country, the second message is weak.
by Aguirre on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Ugh, Peter Reith on The Drum
by Frank Calabrese on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:15 pm
You are right there and thats why I posted the site to make us Aussies realize how lucky we are!
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:15 pm
Fair enough, can the men arrange things to stop the women getting the top jobs?
by fredn on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:17 pm
I always support compulsory voting. If Australia didn’t have it, none of us lazy bahstuds would get off the couch to vote.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:17 pm
Frank Calabrese
Hopefully chanting
“Whadda we want ? Work Choices ! Whenna we want them ? NOW !”.
by poroti on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:18 pm
Mari, those photos were almost too heart-wrenching to look at. Sometimes we need a reminder.
by MsAdventure on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:19 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@SwannyDPM Swannie, can u pls ask the Banks to explain how the OS funding costs’ve gone up with the CBs printing money & 0% interest #auspol
51 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:19 pm
NO
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:19 pm
You are right, one of the worst was the little boy and his eyes
by mari on Dec 6, 2011 at 6:21 pm