Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The Big Ship
Posted Wednesday, December 7, 2011 at 12:30 pm | Permalink
A very thoughtful and reflective article by an almost mystical Ross Gittins:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/ruthless-pursuit-of-profit-at-all-cost-is-an-excess-that-cant-last-20111206-1oh5j.html
And this guy is an economist?
Would that all economists were as concerned about the current trends in world capitalism
I had just finished reading his article when I saw your post, he is I think an economist with a heart, most Unusual. Also noticed in the SMH the Poll on Father Riley is running 53 to 43 against him, 4 % undecided
by mari on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:40 pm
We certainly know that the treasurer would be larger – much larger – under the coalition.
by Darn on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Was on The Age site, see that La Grattan usual ranting about JG, the comments have closed , pretty early, wonder why. She received a bashing yesterday in the comments
by mari on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:42 pm
dee – I’m with you on Woody Allen films – even Annie Hall, but we didn’t realise it was one of his until we checked at the end. It was really interesting but a bit edgy.
by BH on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:47 pm
swan abc24 now
by gusface on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:48 pm
The reporters are just setting things up for the January round of Ruddstoration, which of cause will lead into the March round and so on.
Reporters seem to have tiny minds. Consider the Labor conference on the weekend, topics were discussed, there were things to be reported.
What was the big question yesterday: Do you like Kevin Rudd?
What the hell, their reporting on the counties parliament, not the kindergarten around the corner.
With that standard of thought and reporting, what can they do, another round of RUDDSTORATION.
Boring.
by fredn on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:49 pm
Cracker of an article by Andrew catsaras. Must read for all PB tragics.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3717268.html
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Westpac has a very odd marketing angle; recall the banana smoothie?
by Laocoon on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Curious to know what was “loopy”? Suggesting that preferences should be optional in federal elections?
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:55 pm
Today’s Mumble on the ALP, membership levels and the 2010 National review. Another interesting read
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/release_labor_report/
by madcyril on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:56 pm
You know I like his films apart from that nervous fella who’s always in them.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 7, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Wayne Swan’s excellent slide show.
http://twitdoc.com/view.asp?id=31079&sid=NZB&ext=PPTX&lcl=Press-conf-slides.pptx&usr=SwannyDPM&doc=74962216&key=key-kmwpzkaxmuoz8zynmdc
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:00 pm
“I find Hope’s comedies to be pretty lame.”
I am yet to find a decent one. Usually slapstick Road To movies with the wife-beater as a sidekick.
There is probably a better comedy than Flying High but I am struggling to think of it. Still can’t believe they got way with the little girl ordering her coffee and wanting it like her men, “Strong and black”. Loved Jimmy Walker checking under the bonnet (the nose cone)! Dyn-o-MITE!!
by Roy Orbison on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:01 pm
The Big Ship@2258
He has a spreadsheet that proves it!
by Musrum on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:01 pm
mari @ 2302
The Dowager Empress, Michelle Grattan, is looking more like a home grown Helen Thomas every passing day, and seems destined for the same sorry end.
Sadly for some, when the time to retire gracefully approaches it is rarely seen and the opportunity for a dignified departure grasped until it is too late to avoid the axe, and the fading doyenne of the Canberra Press Gallery is in dire need of a trusted colleague to give her the tap on the shoulder before the Fairfax HR department forcibly superannuates her.
A twilight facility beckons as the once great (well, let’s say adequate) La Grattan exits stage right and lapses into a well merited retirement.
by The Big Ship on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:02 pm
From Aristotle:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3717268.html
by zoomster on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:04 pm
That Andrew Catsaras article is very very good. Thanks for posting. Makes many other journos look like cats arses!
by Lynchpin on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:06 pm
“The Dowager Empress, Michelle Grattan, is looking more like a home grown Helen Thomas every passing day, and seems destined for the same sorry end.”
Sunset Boulevarde?
by Roy Orbison on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Greensborough Growler
Posted Wednesday, December 7, 2011 at 12:50 pm | Permalink
Cracker of an article by Andrew catsaras. Must read for all PB tragics.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3717268.html
What a great read should give all of us hope
by mari on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:10 pm
In her Rocking Chair with blanket folded on her lap reading PB on her iPad.
by dave on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:10 pm
I just had this image of Madame Defage (?) from a Tale of Two Cities.
by Lynchpin on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:14 pm
I find it very sad, until she got her knickers in a knot over JG, I used to enjoy her articles, same with RN before the 2010 election. Her irrational dislike of JG is very disturbing.
I think Helen Thomas lost her seat in the front row of press conferences? is there some way the same hint could be given to MG?
by mari on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:14 pm
As a self-confessed fiscal dumb-cluck, it seems to me Orstralia is doing pretty damn well amid all the doom and gloom. Seems to me the US is a cot case, end of empire. I like President Obama, though. Europe is just toddling along on a shoestring; giblets and a few free-range bean shoots.
China, India have been let out. Has the Liberal Party been informed?
(If any of the above makes sense, it’s probably a miracle. Smile thingy.)
by Scringler on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Tom Hawkins @ 2188
Re Priest of the pokies
I’ve just got home and have caught up with this mornings posts. Have just sent an email letting him know of my disgust. Thanks for the email link.
by vote1maxine on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Mumble and Catsaras are channeling each other. From Mumble:
I agree that Labor needs to ignore the Greens.
by confessions on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Trying to assume the Greens’ platform will not win those voters back.
by confessions on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Interesting article. A few months back Laocoön was at a lunch with a hundred of his closest friends, at which the newish editor of the Harvard Business Review spoke as to ideas on business purposes, of a similar philosophical trait at this.
At the end “one of Australia’s leading independent directors” got up and asked wtte, I am chairing an AGM in a few weeks and I usually say the purpose of the company is to maximise shareholder value and after this speech, I don’t know what I will say…
I didnt know whether to bang my head on the table or wish the floor to open up; I reckon a lot of the issues of Australian business performance starts at the very top…
by Laocoon on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@latikambourke Another Beautiful Set of Numbers – GDP 1% for SeptQ, Public Debt 7% GDP and Unemployment 5.2% in Sept #ThatsYourFix #auspol
1 minute ago
by The Finnigans on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Of course companies originally had a specific purpose, and once it was spent so were they. Now they live forever, zombies seeking only the next profit rather than attempting to achieve any particular goal.
Their legal ascendency is alarming. The WorkChoices decision here and the US Supreme Court’s campaign finance decision are symbolic of the insane position society has adopted on the role and nature of the company.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:21 pm
No it won’t, we have a preferential voting system. All Labor has to do is stay left of the Liberals and they stand a good chance of getting 80% of the preferences.
The Liberals are making it real easy to stay to the left of them. They are moving into shock jock and.
by fredn on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:21 pm
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/judge-rules-against-councillor-in-13m-dispute-20111207-1oi1c.html
Next Sophie M?
by mari on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:22 pm
Lynchpin
I have just shown your post to my cat and he is most offended. He says that journos are more like snake’s arses i.e. as low to the ground as you can get. I had to agree with him.
by Tom Hawkins on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:24 pm
Re Helen Thomas…and Grattan
______________
In severl posts re Grattan,there have been references to Helen Thomas…the former doyen of the Washington Press Corps.
Thomas has a distinguised career in D,C and showed great courage in her constant critique of the Bush/.Blair lies and agression against Iraq
So much did she rile Bush that he refused to take her questions at his press conferences and passed over her upraised hand….in the end she earned the support of her peers and they staged a “coup” and at a press conferece …no hands wee raised for the first question but hers.
Bush was caught out and she then gave him a very harsh questioning
Remember though what brought her down was that in a comment she challenged to absolute dominance of the jewish -Zionist lobby in the US media at the time of the israeli attacks against the civilians of Gaza.
For this she was vilified by the usual suspects…who hate anyone who questions their policy dominance in the USA
by deblonay on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Sometime in early 2012 we will get a chance to see whether the 80% Greens to Labor still holds, especially under an optional preferential system.
Now the Bligh government is pretty green by and large and other than two rural issues (Traviston Dam and CSG) is generally seen as quite greenish so there is no reason for Greens to be hostile. it will be a very interesting test. I predict that about 60% of preferences will com to Labor, 20% to Libs and 20% expire. I wonder how close I will be.
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:27 pm
Deb
Well done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:30 pm
daretortread,
There is always a reason to be hostile to the Greens.
Catsaras analysis shows Labor has to get votes back from the Libs. Greens who don’t preference the ALP should just doll themselves up for their LNP winter.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:33 pm
To Bushfire Bill & all other Grattan lovers out there, here’s what Ross Gittens thinks of her (rating her as No. 2 of his top 10 quality journalism sources in Australia):
“Michelle Grattan: If you want to know what to think about the latest political contretemps, read Michelle in The Age. Judicious is the best adjective to describe her contribution. To the latest excitement she applies decades of context and comparison plus her unparalleled ability to suppress her private political preferences. Aided by the best economics correspondent, Peter Martin.”
No doubt you all agree…..:-)
by Darc on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:34 pm
To Bushfire Bill & all other Grattan lovers out there, here’s what Ross Gittens thinks of her (rating her as No. 2 of his top 10 quality journalism sources in Australia):
“Michelle Grattan: If you want to know what to think about the latest political contretemps, read Michelle in The Age. Judicious is the best adjective to describe her contribution. To the latest excitement she applies decades of context and comparison plus her unparalleled ability to suppress her private political preferences. Aided by the best economics correspondent, Peter Martin.”
No doubt you all agree…..:-)
by Darc on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Thank you Debonay for that, jolted my memory, yes it was Bush because she asked too many questions which he couldn’t answer,sure it was one of his officials that pushed her out of the front row at Presser, evidently the position you sit gives you precedence? So pleased re the solidary of the other journos, could you imagine that here?
Yes it was comments re The Zionists which brougt her down
by mari on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:34 pm
zoomster @ 2315
I would say that Ari is overstating the value of a greens vote won back. My guess is that those won back would strongly tend to be those that would have preferenced ALP. Those sticking with the Greens would be more biased toward the Fibs.
by bemused on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:34 pm
deblonay – I agree. Absolutely no comparison with Helen Thomas’ whole career against what La Grattan has become over the past 10.
by BH on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:36 pm
When was this assessment done, up to 18 months ago I would have agreed
by mari on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Mari,
It was in Crikey’s quality journalism project today
by Darc on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:38 pm
LNP will lose the Queensland election (I don’t know how), Labor will be in government because they are the only viable alternative.
by fredn on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:38 pm
bemused,
Even more reason not to pander to the policy demands of the Left and the Greens.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:38 pm
daretotread
we don’t need to wait. There was a NSW by election recently, which should show how Green preferences flowed.
by zoomster on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:40 pm
2315 – Aristotle is right, which is why I don’t see the gay marriage issue as being a substantial vote winner/ changer for Labor at all.
If you’re progresive enough to want it, you’ll give your second preference to the ALP after the Greens anyway.
Getting completely sick and tired of all this examinatin in the media of where Labor is going wrong as a Party. FMD, they won, you know? I haven’t seen any of these articles mentioning the burgeoning LNP membership numbers either.
As usual, no one int eh media wants to look in that direction.
by Burgey on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Tom, point taken. I think “snake’s duodenum” is the correct term according to Tammy Fraser. I have a cat also. He agrees with your cat.
by Lynchpin on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Darc,
Grattan’s pronouncements on RN breakfast are about as judicial and illuminating as Vince Bruce’s were.
by Burgey on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:43 pm
The problem with the Catsaras article is that is assumes that Green preferences will continue to transfer at 80% to Coalition. I think that the democrat/labor rates of 60/40 are more likely long term. IF the Libs had a progressive greenish leader (eg Turnbull) then this could even be 50/50. Even under Howard a 70/30 split was more likely.
80/20 is unrealistically high especially if the Greens become pragmatic and do preference swap deals ie Libs preference greens in inner city seats in exchange for Greens preferences in some marginal liberal seats. (eg the seat of Brisbane). Certainly while Abbott is leader the Grens will preference Labor but under almost ANY other Liberal leader, expect this to drop.
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:43 pm