Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The problem with the Catsaras article is that is assumes that Green preferences will continue to transfer at 80% to Coalition. I think that the democrat/labor rates of 60/40 are more likely long term. IF the Libs had a progressive greenish leader (eg Turnbull) then this could even be 50/50. Even under Howard a 70/30 split was more likely.
80/20 is unrealistically high especially if the Greens become pragmatic and do preference swap deals ie Libs preference greens in inner city seats in exchange for Greens preferences in some marginal liberal seats. (eg the seat of Brisbane). Certainly while Abbott is leader the Greens will preference Labor but under almost ANY other Liberal leader, expect this to drop.
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:44 pm
LOL! Lawsie still hasn’t got over being pinged on the ABC over Cash For Comments.
He was very unhappy that they ran with that as their lead story when all the commercial TVs ran with the really important relevant news leads, like the death of JFK Junior in an airplane crash in the US.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:44 pm
debonlay
I agree!
Not exact but to this effect.
Helen Thomas using logic who said we should be analysing what drives a young person to blow themselves up.
It is not good enough to label them terrorists, we must look to why such hoplesness exists. What drives people to suicide & murder of this type. This smacks of the last resort, after much frustration & anger over policy failures & the failure to be heard.
Our view that those in the west are all good & those from the middle-east are all bad is just plainly wrong.
by Dee on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Zoomster
I am not sure that NSW is fair – even labor party members voted Green LNP I suspect
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:47 pm
Fredn
I sincerely hope you are right – and feel some hope also – but the polling still looks awful
Loathe Newman almost as much (no actually MORE) than I loathe Abbott. The rest of the LNP are muddle headed bunnies.
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:49 pm
Catsara’s analysis is based on the Federal system of voting. So is not particularly transferrable to any other voting system. However, given the high preference flow from the Greens to labor, you would expect those hard headed preference allocators to be mainly going Labor when they do.
The preference flow of 80% has been consistent for a number of elections. So any desperate speculation that it could be different next time due to (Put your own reason)has no basis in fact and reeks of whistling in the dark.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:53 pm
daretotread
No, 80% to Labor.
Explain. Why would Green voters send their preferences to a party which is against carbon pricing, against gay marriage and – even more importantly – vehemently anti Green?
Er, evidence? I think you’ll find that ‘under Howard’ is exactly where Catsaras’ predictions come from.
Um, yeah, right. Firstly, the 80/20 is based on a environment where it is known that Greens voters don’t tend to follow HTV cards. So the Greens can do all the preference swaps they want, it won’t have any substantial effects on the way their preferences flow (Senate is a different matter).
Secondly, the Libs have repeatedly ruled out this kind of deal. They did so leading up to the Victorian election, which they won. Having proved the pudding – that preferencing Labor over the Greens is more appealing to their voters – the Libs are even less likely now to do this kind of deal.
Well, given that the 80/20 split is based on past preference flows, when Abbott wasn’t the leader, you’re actually saying that, at present, the split is probably 90/10.
by zoomster on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Yes, Big Ship. Sort of agree. However, she has been a responsible journalist – good, in her day – but circumstances change.
I have no idea why she appears to loathe Julia Gillard. Maybe someone should ask
Michelle? Could have been a misplaced comma.
Also, maybe Fairfax is being humane and has decided, as I have with little Henry, the brave soldier who protects our no-fly zone, to let her decide when it’s time to pull the plug. I hope so. MG has provided sterling service; that should never be negated.
I find references to her as the “old crone” offensive.
by Scringler on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:54 pm
LNP nasty telling it true about bullying in LNP Qld.
by jenauthor on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:55 pm
I think this is the type of thinking which has created real problems for Labor. If they don’t stand for anything progressive, they have no brand. If they have no brand (beyond “kinda like the Libs on this stuff but with more union links”), the swinging punters can get a more consistent anti-gay marriage stance from the Libs together with perceived (but false) benefits in economic management, national security, etc.
Labor’s constant attempts to triangulate and ignore the left/progressive parts of its philosophy have been a major contributor to the perception that it is a party without a purpose. I have no doubt it has contributed to the decline in membership too.
Put that differently: I suspect a lot of people don’t really care about gay marriage all that much, even if they have a superficial preference. If Labor legalises it they get to say: (a) look at us, we get stuff done (b) now we can all move forward with that sorted (c) we are modern and progressive unlike the Libs (d) passionate progressives actually have a reason to want to be involved with us.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:55 pm
GG
Greens voters have a very strong antipathy to Abbott who is everything they dislike (just as they dislike the Labor extreme right). Greens voters similarly hated Howard (mostly over his AS policy ha ha).
Not quite so sure that they will stick to Labor if led as now, especially against a more rational Lib leader.
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Mmm…..
by Dee on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:00 pm
There is OPV in NSW.
I think it’s best to just stick to Federal elections, as that’s what Ari was referring to.
by confessions on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Patrick,
Labor will always disappoint the whingey hand waiverers like you. Frankly, I don’t care. The ALP is there to support working families. Always has been.
The left and progressives can provide some useful ideas. But, it’s always the hard centre that does the work and the implementation.
Feel free to froth away though.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:02 pm
I don’t understand the banks.
Pass the full 25 points now.
If you want to fiddle at the edges then increase your loan rates by .10 or whatever in the new year.
This waiting game pretending that they are ruminating when the decision was made on how to respond weeks ago is not doing their already soiled image any good at all.
BTW my am mortgage free so my interest in this is as an observer rather than a victim.
by Tom Hawkins on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Interesting. Where’s Hockey?
by confessions on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Afternoon bludgers, I’ve written a new post today called:
“Ask not for whom the poll tolls” http://bit.ly/fB8fAP
A slightly edited version is currently on The Drum’s site.
by Aristotle on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Zoomster
I think the Greens preference was about 75% Labor under Howard.
I would suggest Deb and Horsey would be able to give a much better feel for how passionate greens will actually vote next election.
As for the less passionate greens ie the voters not activists, I suspect that many are Liberal in many ways and it will be an easy matter to switch to LNP – NOT with troglodyte leaders like Abbott or Howard but with a Turnbull who could say.
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Has the Noalition finally realised that Hockey is damaged goods? Their problem with Corrmann is that he’ll sound like a spokesman from the EU not Oz.
by Tom Hawkins on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Greens prefs have been 80% or so to Labor for ever. It prob won’t change with Abbott as LOTO. Truffles might improve it if he got in.
The disgruntled informal votes which might have been Labor at the last election are another issue though. Informal votes went from 3.9% to 5.6% at the last election.
by Diogenes on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Pegasus is apparently planning to vote informal because of antipathy towards the ALP. Quite how this helps advance the Greens’ agenda is anyone’s guess, but Pegasus is entitled to vote as s/he sees fit.
by confessions on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Re The Woody Allen film on Paris
________________________
Dee and others
___________
I enjoyed it greatly.. quite brilliant …and the wonderful scenes of Paris at the start said it all..a love letter to Paris as one critic said
By the way, a great US biography of Gertrude Stein and Alice B Toklas is around …called “Charmed Circle ” ..hard to find but you may get it on inter-library loan
There is also the autoBiography ” of Alice.”. by Stein((??) detailing their early years in Paris,and more famously,,, Hemingway’s “A Moveable Feast” his own story of those interwar years in Paris…….
but the fim captured that time so very well…
by deblonay on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:06 pm
daretotread,
LOL. Where are the Libs going to find one of them? Libs are likely to put Greens last.
Sounds like you and the Greens are gunning for an abusive relationship if you ask me.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:07 pm
You should try posting something of substance instead of pathetic ad hominem attacks. Or go back to your ALP right meetings where I assume it’s nothing but ad hominem ad nauseam.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:08 pm
You would have to guess that a very large portion of that increase would have been from disillusioned Labor supporters.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:09 pm
GG
In Qld where I live I think that many of the Greens voters are very soft in support for Labor – especially in suburban seats. You of all people should understand – it is a class thing and Greens are not working class.
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:10 pm
Tom
I suspect Sloppy Joe scampered out of this conference in case he was asked questions about the NOalitions non-audit of costings.
by Dee on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:11 pm
I did but the comment wasn’t posted anyway MG doesn’t reply to any posts. But up to the 2010 election I would have defended her, but since!!!!
by mari on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Patrick and GG
Just as I acknowledge I am left Labor with very green tinges, GG is extreme right Labor with DLP tinges. At least he is honest about it (which I genuinely respect)
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:13 pm
daretotread
you don’t have to ‘think’ – you can do the research and prove it.
However,the 80% figure is used by most pollsters I know of – the professionals, who do this stuff for a living – and is based over long term voting patterns.
Given that Greens traditionally don’t follow HTV cards, I see no reason why any deals done with the Libs (snort, as if) would change that.
I also don’t see why a ‘Green’ voter, given the choice of a party which supports action on climate change, gay marriage, the NBN, protection of National Parks etc versus one that doesn’t support any of these things, would give Libs their preferences.
by zoomster on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Two Words.
Adele Carles.
That is all.
by Frank Calabrese on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:14 pm
There was some thought it was the Latham Effect as well.
by Diogenes on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:14 pm
And a good read it is, Ari!
by jenauthor on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:15 pm
By the way, Greensborough, does it even occur to you that there is not necessarily a difference between the “hand waivers” and “whingers” you so despise (which I gather means anyone who actually has a progressive bone in their bodies) and the “working families” you idolise?
Maybe you should read this:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/featurearticlesbytitle/EF44F37DA92FDDEECA2571A3001A4180?OpenDocument
Blue collar workers of the kind imagined by Labor right hacks don’t actually exist any more, at least not in significant enough numbers to win elections via their support. So are you suggesting that Labor’s entire target demographic is about 30% of the population? Or are non-progressive white collar voters (which I thought were called “Liberal voters”) Labor’s new demographic?
Not sure why I’m asking. I realise your arguments boil down to “I am right and anyone who disagrees is a fool”.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:15 pm
Zoomster
Don’t you think that the discrepancy between the Morgan preference allocation – what people say versus last election – just MIGHT be saying something. It might not but it is a consistent discrepancy which you ignore at peril
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:16 pm
It seriously sounds like GG would be happier in the Liberal party. Their core demographic is pig ignorant lower middle class types with socially conservative views.
by Patrick Bateman on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Zoomster
Asylum seekers, uranium, US toadying, Assange
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:17 pm
GG @ 2344
I agree as far as the Greens go but I am not uncomfortable with a lot of Labor left positions. The Greens are a parasitic organism sucking blood from the ALP.
by bemused on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:18 pm
z
There must be some as 20% of Green voters pref the Libs. Dunno what characteristics they have.
by Diogenes on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Patrick
GG would be happiest in the DLP. Unlike many others here he is upfront on his position which I respect.
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:19 pm
Bemused
Babies are parasitic organisms while in the womb. They grow then become independent, then in old age the parent becomes the dependent.
Just a thought
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:21 pm
daretotread
Assange?
by Dee on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:23 pm
patrick,
Which party are you a Member?
Oh, that’s right. None meet your illustrious standards. You are a cartoon cut out. Just another JV style whinger that knows all the answers but too lazy to do the work to implement your dreams/policies/stupidities. A pathetic non achiever.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Can anyone explain why Julian Assange is a cause celebre of the left?
He certainly doesn’t have any time for left causes in general … is it just that he got up the nose of the USA and therefore is automatically a good’un?
by Jackol on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:26 pm
bemused@2387
I disagree. The Greens are people with a progressive political worldview that have made a political decision that their interests are better served in an independent political party, rather than being the junior partner in an unequal power relationship.
If the ALP did not have the malapportioned power to the unions, it would be much easier to criticize that decision.
by Musrum on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:27 pm
An old tweet.
A PBer said earlier that Bill Crews has a segment on hate radio.
I’m assuming this is the chappy???
by Dee on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Dee
The Assange matter could potentially be huge if not handled right. It is NOT an issue jut now but if there is any reality to the fears of extradition to the US this would be a real divider between green and Labor.
Mind you the economy is Gillard’s real risk (as it is for EVERY PM always)
by daretotread on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Dee – yep 2GB Sunday night
by shellbell on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:28 pm
daretotread
no, because – as William has often explained, if you’d bother to read what’s actually posted on the top of these threads – when this is tested at actual elections, people tend to preference the way they preferenced last time, rather than the way they said they were going to.
Like the 80/20 figure, it’s tried and tested and proveable. None of your statements are – you seem to prefer guesswork.
This is pseph site. Those of us who have been here for some years have a fair working knowledge of how this all works.
btw, for someone who says they’re Labor, you’re sounding more and more like a concern troll.
by zoomster on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:28 pm
Dee @ 2395
That was me. And yes, he has a segment on Sunday night.
by bemused on Dec 7, 2011 at 2:30 pm