Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@george – The US as a state is a parasite. It needs to regularly ‘feed’ to fuel’ their own economy and have since the 1870′s.
by CTar1 on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:22 pm
George are you on Twitter post that!
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Che Guevara being unavailable.
by William Bowe on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:23 pm
ctar,
Without the US, you’d be talking Japanese.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Tom Hawkins@3299
That hurts!
by Musrum on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Sounds a bit sleazy.
by Scringler on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Just have Mari.
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:29 pm
William,
What about Edward St John. He’d certainly alter the participation profile.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Anyone can have a budget surplus if they don’t pay their mortgage or their bills, don’t maintain their place and fail to ensure that the kids are fed, educated and get decent health care. so it was with Howard. Like some withered old troll he sat on his pile of gold and refused to share. Maybe he was just scared of a repeat of his disastrous term as treasurer. That huge $9 billion black hole he left for Hawke and Keating to deal with wuold be worth how much in today’s money? And the old fart had the gall to keep telling us that only the Liberals can manage the economy. Just another Howard lie.
by leone on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:31 pm
@Greensborough Growler #3303
That might be true but don’t get between what they think is good for them – they don’t do any extra favours.
by CTar1 on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:35 pm
george 3292
Thanks and sadly I’m not surprised. Obama doesn’t seem to “have the ticker” to fight for what is needed on cliamte change, any more than he has done so for the millions of US unemployed. Obama is better than George W Bush, but still not very good.
by Socrates on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:37 pm
Hi Poroti – a message from Tom Cummings. His temp membership here expired so he can’t, but he asked me to pass this on, via some twitter DM messages he sent.
He runs the http://www.cyenne.com/ site on Pokies.
I’ve met him, he is indeed real and without pseudonymity.
by Leroy on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Yes, from existent to non-existent.
by William Bowe on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:38 pm
What is your twitter name, I can’t find it?
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:39 pm
leone @ 3308
” And the old fart had the gall to keep telling us that only the Liberals can manage the economy. Just another Howard lie.”
He also screwed the States (conveniently all Labor at the end) on the big ticket items like health and education – and then blamed them for poor service delivery! Also had the huge clearance sale of every Commonwealth asset not screwed down. He was the very lucky beneficiary of a booming world and Australian economy and rapidly increasing asset values and company profits leading to (I think) the highest tax revenues as a % of GDP on record.
by CO on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:40 pm
William Bowe@3302
Too busy making t-shirts in a Southern China sweatshop.
by Musrum on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Notice Harry Morgan and also Col Potter are trending on Twitter, I thought he was so wonderful, I still watch Mash at times, what a grand age he lived to.
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:43 pm
William – Isn’t really is time you told them that some really contrary ar#$hole who’s a newcomer is going to be running things while you sleep / alternatively enjoy yourself way too much …
by CTar1 on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Historians, including from the AWM, have proven this is a myth since the war. The Japanese only ever wanted Indonesia for its oil reserves. There was a plan drawn up to invade northern Australia (only) in late 1941, but it was abandoned in favour of a strategy to isolate Australia by conquering Papua New Guinea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Japanese_invasion_of_Australia_during_World_War_II
See particularly:
http://www.aph.gov.au/Library/pubs/bp/1992/92bp06.pdf
Our military has invented a lot of myths over the years to justify defence spending. The claimed need to defend South Vietnam was another. There was no reality to the domino theory. They never intended to go south of Vietnam. We were defending US policy with Australian lives. Why? Trade deals, presumably.
by Socrates on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:44 pm
William Would you mind giving my email to Allan Moyes please
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Without the english you would be speaking dutch
Without. The dutch you would be soeakig french
Actually we all should be speaking an indigenous language
Just thought I would throw,that in
I am off to ohs retirement party now
,well part time retirement that is.
by my say on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Rubbish! Socrates has the real facts.
The Yanks used Australia as a safe and convenient base after the collapse of the Phillipines. They would have been off in a second at the first sign of trouble.
We keep building on the mythology. We tell our kids that the yanks ‘saved us’ by winning the battle of the Coral Sea. Odd, that. The Japanese fleet involved had no landing craft and carried no troops for an invasion. But let’s not allow the facts to get in the way of mythology.
by leone on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:49 pm
Low bar to pass, unfortunately.
by rishane on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:49 pm
@Socrates #3318 – It makes a good story however I don’t think I would have taken the risk.
The ‘septics’ are a calculated risk that has to be judged and dealt with.
by CTar1 on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:52 pm
I did so yesterday, Mari.
by William Bowe on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:52 pm
Zoomster,
For the second time…..
and, The Finnigans
It’s the usual spin by omission
Partial re-post: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/12/03/weekend-miscellany/comment-page-12/#comment-1103421
3. Croakey on dental care:
1. 2 May 2010: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2010/05/12/health-budget-has-a-gaping-hole-but-also-heralds-new-era-in-prevention/
10 May 2011: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2011/05/10/a-health-budget-with-no-teeth/
5 May 2010: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2010/05/05/why-health-reform-lacks-teeth-and-why-do-we-neglect-dental-policy-so/
——————————————————————————————
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/12/03/weekend-miscellany/comment-page-13/#comment-1103469
zoomster,
September 6, 2008: http://news.theage.com.au/national/senate-blocks-governments-dental-plans-20080916-4htp.html
As quoted in my post:
The CDHP is a relatively small amount of money ($290 million over three years)
Given the queue and the length of time people have been waiting for treatment, how far would that amount go as compared to the existing scheme?
by Pegasus on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Kezza, that makes 2 of us!!
by Lynchpin on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:58 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/07/rupert-murdoch-stop-online-piracy-act_n_1135452.html
More in the article
by Leroy on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:58 pm
The Japanese forces engaged in the Battle of the Coral Sea were there to provide cover for an invasion fleet that would occupy Port Moresby – a necessary precondition for serious attacks on Australia – but which was recalled due to the outcome of the naval battle.
by William Bowe on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Leone, what a wonderful word image to paint the character of the former PM.
by Lynchpin on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Calculated, in 2007, as $40 billion (according to PJK – I think during his ‘Costello in the hammock, rock, rock’ demolition). Somewhat more, now, with inflation (quite low since the GFC). Remember, though, that, during a period when the Budget was brought down midAugust & that $9 billion was the Budget deficit on the day Stone presented Hawke with the National Accounts – in the week following 5 March – c6.5 months after the Budget was presented. So make that about $80 billion!
And that didn’t take into account the massive National Debt.
Keating was the first Treasurer/PM to start ‘retiring’ National Debt (?1990), starting with debt with the highest interest rate, not the last decade or so of the low-interest War & Post-war loans, which were reaching maturity.
by OzPol Tragic on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:01 pm
As a doctor said to me, rich people with diabetes get thousands of dollars of free dental treatment while poor people get no treatment at all.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Thanks William, you are a good man
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Bilbo could always conduct a social experiment. Just leave us to ourselves for the two weeks and see what happens, kind of like Lord of the Flies.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:05 pm
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/1505/
by Leroy on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:07 pm
There was chatter here recently about Greens Drew Hutton and Bob Katter…PowerIndex….
by Pegasus on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:10 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@3333
I’m sure we would be perfectly fine.
by Musrum on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Frank Bongiorno on the Labor conference writes how it exposed the party’s – and the government’s – weaknesses:
http://inside.org.au/the-labor-way/
by Pegasus on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Aw shucks, don’t youse know that’s utterly and completely wrong?
Peter Stanley, one of Johnny Howard’s mates from the War Memorial wrote a book about how the Japs never intended to invade.
Even giants of academia like Alexander Downer used it to bash Labor with a few years back. So Stanley must have been onto something.
He went to Japan and looked at the documents, 60 years after the war ended. From his research it was perfectly obvious that they never wanted to invade Australia.
He also used the opportunity to portray Curtin as a shameless self-promoter who whipped up national fear about a Jap invasion for political purposes only. Quite right, too.
Of course, all this was obvious at the time. I mean, the Japs had only invaded New Guinea, bombed Darwin, Broome and Townsville and had been sending large fleets of aircraft carriers around the Coral Sea challenging the Yanks.
Curtin could have left the troops in North Africa (where Menzies wanted them to stay), the Americans could have given the Jap fleet a free pass at the Coral Sea and all they would have done was occupy Port Moresby.
Obvious, when you delve down into it. Curtin should have known. The secret documents proved it. All he had to do was look, right? Sheesh…
That’s the problem with Labor governments. When you examine them carefully, in the light of history, they’re just a bunch of incompetent mugginses who couldn’t govern their way out of a wet paper bag.
The GFC is another example. They really screwed us with that Stimulus rubbish. We should have done the hard yards and let a couple of hundred thousand lose their jobs. Good for morale, that. Now… Look at the debt! Look at Newspoll!
Let’s face it, no wonder the Libs are Best To Manage The Economy and Best For National Security.
They did the REAL hard yards, cat-calling in Parliament and trying to vote everything down during the GFC, and Menzies (with a few other conservative Ex-Prime Ministers from Down Under)… sitting on his fat arse at the Imperial War Cabinet giving Churchill vital war advice. That’s what I call “fighting spirit”. Real patriotism! Showin’ ‘em how to do it!
Heh, Curtin got it easy. Anyone could have seen the Japs off, that is if they were ever a threat, which Mr. Stanley assures us they weren’t.
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:25 pm
[Bilbo could always conduct a social experiment. Just leave us to ourselves for the two weeks and see what happens, kind of like Lord of the Flies.
Puff, I think that's an excellent idea. There's enough nous around here to keep it civil.
BTW, Lord of the Flies is probably the most disturbing book I've ever read. Apart from Crime and Punishment, of course.
by Scringler on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:27 pm
Interesting and lengthy article on MPs and the demands of constituency work:
http://inside.org.au/the-everyday-politics-of-perpetual-electioneering/
by Pegasus on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:32 pm
I can’t remember much attention being paid to past Labor conferences. This one has been analysed, deconstructed, reconstructed, picked apart and commented on by every journo from here to Kabul. Every word, glance and gesture has been given some arcane meaning. If the PM didn’t mention Rudd in every sentence she was said to be snubbing him, if she did mention him she was sucking up to stop a leadership challenge. Some twerp even found significance in Julia Gillard failing to kiss Rudd. It’s all been far too much and I, for one, wish the journos and hacks and self-syled commentators would just go away, have too many Christmas drinks and find something else to talk about.
Here are some suggestions -
Malcolm Turnbull turning into Malcolm Everywhere this week, with comments on a zillion things that are not part of his portfolio – here’s a leadership challenge in the making guys, but you don’t seem to be seeing it.
Joe Hockey and that dodgy financial costing – no-one has said a word about it. Nor have they wondered why Hockey left the country as soon as the findings were made public. Coincidence? Hardly.
Where will Tony Abbott spend Christmas this year? He hasn’t been home for months, will the wife and kids let him in?
by leone on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Sloppy Joe’ll have to do something about that.
Why is KFC’s Greatest Friend over in the US? He should be here talking the economy down.
I mean, look at interest rates! Joe would have had them down to three-and-a-half by now, AND the banks would be saying, “Yes sir, Mr. Hockey. We’ll do as you say.” No wonder Essential has them at Best To Manage Interest Rates. Anyone can get 4.25%. Howard did it in a center in… uhm… when was it?… that’s right! January 2002.
And, according to Paul Kelly, Gillard has the temerity to ignore a Newspoll Pronouncement? What arrogance!
By his own admission all Joe, and anyone else who’s part of a “proper” government”, ever had to do was pick up the phone. Hey, it worked with Indonesia, right? (Well, it would’ve worked with Indonesia if Tony had been PM). And it definitely worked with Nauru. It should’ve worked with Joycey over at Qantas. Joe knew what Joycey was up to, all Parliament did, but he didn’t want to tell Julia because she’d just steal all his good ideas.
No, I reckon Joe’s place is here, telling us we have the worst government in history, that the placed is effed good and proper, with the stupidest Prime Minister and the most devastated economy imaginable. Can’t have those consumers getting too excited about things and going back to the shops, now, can we?
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Japanese Strategies in 1942
_______________________
According to William Manchester in his bio of General MacArthur,after their remarkable success in the Asian pacific zones ,and the fall of Singapore,the Jap. high command meet in Tokio and argued about what to do next…they were unprepared for such easy victories.
Their major concerns were in China where they had been at war since 1937,against fierce Chinese resistance,and they worried about the Soviet Union then fighting the Nazis. They feared Russia might enter the war(it didn’t until 1945)against them.
We forget the vast Japanese commitments in China,and the scale of the losses by both sides.
The High Command in Tokio adopted a policy of trying to isolate Australia,and their strategies in the South Pacific were part of this plan.while pushing ahead with a great campaign in China.
In Washington Roosevelt and Eisenhower disliked MacArthur anyway … and put the Pacific second to victory in Europe for a host of reasons,and the Jap losses in the battle of the Coral Sea and Midway ended their naval supremecy.
. In all this the US saw Australia as a useful base for theie operations.
There was no great concern for Australian survival per se in the USA ….nor any in London,where Churchill is said to have remarked that if Australia fell it would be liberated when the Allies won in Europe anyway..
Several books to look at…. .
Machestor’s bio of General MacArthur…(he also wrote on JFK and the assassination)and an Australian work,now out of print but in many libraries called “Australia :1942;An End of Innocence” by McKinlay
Gavin Long’s history of the 2WW called from.memory. “Six years of War 1939-45″ is very good too,but there is now a whole literature of the reasons for the strategy followed by Tokio.and much disagreement .
by deblonay on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:41 pm
As I (and Alex Downer) said: Curtin should’ve known all that. What a klutz Curtin was! I’m sure the Australian people would’ve have gone along with him if he’d told them there was nothing to worry about from the Japs.
And the Japs would have, too.
by Bushfire Bill on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:45 pm
Leone 3341
Abbott’s Christmas
___________
Perhaps he will spend it in Rome in Cardinal Pell’s palatial new hotet”Domus Australia..with Latin masses and the whole works !…although there is some doubt about the costs of the building’s reconstruction(was it $30 million or $80 million ??)
Abbott would love it ,and Pell could hear his Confession !
by deblonay on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:47 pm
BB – good post
leone – good observation on the conference coverage. A query, are you serious about Abbott not being home for months.
by Leroy on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:49 pm
deblonay – Speaking of that damn Domus Australia – Pell hoped that all the Aussie dioceses would help pay for the thing, but only four have coughed up including my own diocese – Limore. (Yes, I’m a Catholic, but a very back-slidden one). I would have preferred my diocese to have put that money into local projects like schools and aged care, but it seems empire building was more important to Pell.
by leone on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:52 pm
@leone
Goo right ahead … ->
Maybe Toenee will go to London for the holiday and not spend time seeing people who can be mentioned in the press as being there!
by CTar1 on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:53 pm
Curtin’s Real Thoughts in 1942
________________
Read Prof David Day’s impressive bio of Curtin for the ultimate work on the greatest of all Australian PM’s
Curtin was anxious not to have Australians think the war was won after the Coral Sea and Midway victories,as he tought they might slacken off in their war effort,so the official statements were faiirly guarded and not too triumphal.
by deblonay on Dec 8, 2011 at 3:53 pm