Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Paul Lucas – It figures his would be bad. He didn’t seem to come across very well in the post flood media.
by CTar1 on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:18 pm
Not sure Musrum. I did just read an article that described Alister Jordan passing notes to Rudd during question time from the advisor’s box when he was PM
by madcyril on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:19 pm
China is expected to grow at very healthy 8.9% in 2012 Vs 9.2% 2011 Vs 10.3% 2010 – your rice bowl is still intact
by The Finnigans on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Shellbell – when did you last bring small children to Port Macquarie?
Thanks to the white shoe wing of the Nationals who ran council before it was dismissed all the attractions/theme parks were knocked down 5 years ago to make apartments – one of the many reasons Oakeshott felt obliged to leave the party.
by Oakeshott Country on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:25 pm
Other Twitter users are you getting request to follow from straight out porn site, I have had 3 in the last week
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:26 pm
Advisors sitting in their box and passing notes to ministers/shadow ministers has occurred for the many years that I have been interested in parliament
by Oakeshott Country on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:27 pm
Possum:
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:28 pm
mari, i dont open the sealed section.
by The Finnigans on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:29 pm
I do, and then register as “Tony Abbott”
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:31 pm
Ah the true meaning of Christmas
http://www.smh.com.au/world/strangebuttrue/fathers-finger-bitten-off-in-school-nativity-play-fight-20111208-1ojtq.html
by Oakeshott Country on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:34 pm
Poss concludes:
Bloody brilliant. Poss is worth 100 MSM “analysts”
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:36 pm
The Finnigans and George 3457 &8, maybe I had better send these unsealed ones to you two then? George I didn’t see your comment on Twitter, what is your twitter name?
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:37 pm
Finns
Here is a pictorial representation of your beautiful set of numbers.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/12/08/australian-exceptionalism/
Gold!
Gold that the MSM will dutifully ignore.
by BK on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:38 pm
mari @GeorgeBludger
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:38 pm
mari, also my flickr feed: http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Waiting for abbott his little acolyte to make him GG, so that he can take up residence in Kirribilli, just next door to his old digs.
And for Bronny Bishop to be made Speaker.
Its bloody scary – ain’t it…..
by dave on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:39 pm
BK, it is a spectacular piece of work. I’m going to try and distil it into a one page graphic if I have some time over the next few days.
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:40 pm
OC
Two years ago – we keep it simple, Town or Flynn’s beach in the am and the municipal pool in the pm.
Back yonks ago I remember going to Peppermint Park but that has been closed for a while.
by shellbell on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:41 pm
george
It will have to be on A2 to get all that good news in!
by BK on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:41 pm
If I can think of some clever ways to represent it, I might be able to get it on A4 – otherwise it might be a two page spread.
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:42 pm
George do you mind if I send you a twitter and then follow you, I was a bit worried about your flicker link, if it was a sealed section one, but took my courage in my hands and opened, much rather your flick link, in fact I love it.
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:44 pm
Going back a few pages it strikes me that saying the Battle of the Coral Sea was unrelated to a possible invasion because there were no troopships is like saying the Battle of Britain wasn’t invasion related much because the German bombers weren’t towing troop carrying gliders.
Mari: No and I now feel left out.
by roaldan1000 on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:44 pm
sure mari
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Is virgin pacific, part of virgin airlines
by my say on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Yep.
by ruawake on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:47 pm
George the best one I think is TA in his tights etc labelled Libs We Pick Up, amybe the ones who asked to follow me has coloured my thinking??? Will do re Twitter
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:48 pm
Mari – that one got well over 1000 unique hits – I think it’s a PB favourite
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Or How very Socialist of Hockey, more like.
Hope someone says/ tweets that.
by OzPol Tragic on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:50 pm
OK George am following you, if you don’t block me?
By the way I can understand why it is the favourite one amongst the PBs, the teasing pose is too much!
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Yesterday’s Gnome takes talkback:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR2m4ROpfpk&feature=g-u
by Frank Calabrese on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:56 pm
Love those Liberal thugs.
http://www.vexnews.com/2011/12/no-escape-michael-gidley-mp-still-in-the-poo/
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:56 pm
For other Leveson fans:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8167000/8167512.stm
If you look at it now it will say:
by This little black duck on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:58 pm
If Dougie Cameron said it you’d say ‘Yes, Doug’ and go on with whatever you were doing.
But a Liberal Party shadow treasurer … what part of his party’s political philosophy does he actually understand ???
by CTar1 on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:58 pm
CBA finally passes on full cut .
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Before I delete annushaartadi I will suggest that there is a twitterer who is feeling very left out!!
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:00 pm
mari, which is your twitter name so i can follow back
by george on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:01 pm
The bit about Swanee putting upward pressure on interest rates.
by ruawake on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:03 pm
Gail Kelly, where aare you?
by This little black duck on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:03 pm
@randlight George, know this request will be much better than the last couple
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:04 pm
Come on Westpac ,(Gail Kelly) you were first to pass on the cut last time!
by mari on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:07 pm
Trying to figure out how to keep Westpac and St George seperate Banks.
by ruawake on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:07 pm
BK, that is a red bull to a Greens Dolphin (Just love my Horsey)
Latest: This week trifecta: Interest cut to 4.25%, GDP grew 1% in the Sept2011 Quarter and Unemployment is at a healthy 5.3%
0. Labor is still the Australian Govt & PM Gillard for another 2 years, 104 weeks, 730 days, 17520 hours, 1,051,200 minutes and 63,072,000 secs and the Gillard Govt has passed 253 bills through HoR so far.And the Labor Govt Parliamentary majority goes from 75-74 to 76-73.
1. Unemployment 5.3% in Sept
2. Inflation 0.3% for Sept Qtr and 3.5% on year and 2.3% on trimmed rate, lower than expectation
3. Public Net Debts 6.1% GDP & Aust Govt deficit is 3.4% of GDP and compares to deficits of over 10 per cent of GDP in the US and UK. Best Fiscal consolidation & spending restraint in the last 20 years
4. RBA Interest rate 4.250%, compared to 6.75% when Howard was voted out.
5. For the whole of the 2010-2011 financial year, the economy grew 1.8 per cent, the ABS said. Despite all the natural disasters during the year
6. AUD Vs USD 1.026
7. Trade Surplus – $2B jun 2011- Australia’s $2 billion-plus trade surplus for June brought the tally for the last financial year to $22.4 billion – easily the biggest surplus in raw terms for the past 40 years of records compiled by the ABS
8. “ALP best manager of money, history shows” – George Megalogenis – http://t.co/kKeIyVjI
9. Australian families depending on one breadwinner pay among the lowest amounts of tax in the world and have become better off under the Gillard Government – Natsem
10. Investment in the next year in mining and related infra-structure projects $140B
11. Labor’s Tax take 21.75% of GDP Vs 25% under Liberals
12. No interest rise for the 12th consecutive month Vs 10 consecutive rises under Howard/Costello. It is now expected no rises in the future with a prospect of 100/125 basis points cut by June 2012. 25 pts cut predicted on Melbourne Cup day.
13. The number of people filling for bankruptcy in Australia has fallen by 16%.
14. Australia safe from debt crisis: OECD
15. Credit Rating AAA by all agencies including foreign currency bonds
16. We are in Asia
17. business investment spending is expected to grow by 15 per cent this year and another 15 per cent next year. – Ross Gittin
18. Australia in good shape if another crisis hits, says IMF – 8/8/11
19. Australia Stock market has finally decoupled itself from US. On 8/8 ASX up 1.2% as DJ down 6%
20. Capex investment went gangbuster in July and retail up 0.7%
21. NEW Treasury analysis finds Mining played minor role during GFC, it says service industries such as retail – which received a hefty boost from Kevin Rudd’s stimulus package – were crucial in sustaining the economy during its darkest days.
22. Spending survey shows we are better off than we think – YOU would not believe it if you listened to our politicians, but household fuel and power bills eat up no more of our wallets than they did six years ago. And petrol eats up less. he only comprehensive survey of household spending – conducted once every six years by the Bureau of Statistics – finds domestic fuel and power accounted for 2.6 per cent of household spending in 2009-10, 2.6 per cent in 2003-04 and 2.6 per cent two decades earlier in 1988-89.
23. For the whole of the 2010-2011 financial year, the economy grew 1.8 per cent, the ABS said. Despite all the national disasters during the year. And the growth is not all attributed to the Mining sector. Households are not only spending, but saving
24. MASSIVE investment in resources and healthy household spending have delivered the best economic growth in four years and boosted the government’s chances of delivering its promised return to budget surplus.
25. Wayne Swan – Treasurer of the Year 2011
26. Global recovery stalled, says IMF, but Australia well-placed to weather economic turmoil. But the Australian economy has more scope to adjust than most countries, with the ability to slow its return to budget surplus if conditions get worse, and it will be buttressed by the continuing strength in Asia, the fund says.
27. iiNet predicts 27% cost drop on NBN
28. The Wobblebys won Bronze in Rugby WC
29. UNHCR has put its stamp of approval on the Malaysian Solution and dispel all the negative propaganda
30. BHP Billiton $80B Olympic Dam copper/uranium/gold mine in South Australia creating 6000 jobs during a decade-long construction phase, 4000 ongoing jobs at the mine and 15,000 indirect jobs.
31. “The Atlantic magazine named Gillard as one of its “2011 brave thinkers” for her resolute strength in pushing through a carbon tax. “Whether you see the move as politically expedient or as a principled course correction, there’s no denying the risk that it entails in a country where climate change is a wildly contentious issue,” writes Geoffrey Gagnon”
32. RBA again highlights unwinding of fiscal stimulus as an offset to strong private investment.A big tick for govt management of the budget – Stephen Koukoulas
33. The Inspector-General in Bankruptcies’ (IGIB) annual report for 2010/11 showed there were 23,102 new bankruptcies in the year, down 16 per cent from the previous year.It was the lowest number recorded since 2005/06.
34. The Credit Suisse 2011 Global Wealth report, which surveyed the world’s 4.5 billion adults, also revealed that Australia’s median wealth is the highest in the world at US $220,000.
35. Japanese national debt about to top 1 quadrillion yen. That’s 1,000,000,000,000,000. In Aussie dollars that 12,700,000,000,000.
36. AUSTRALIA is second best – almost but not quite the greatest place in which to live, according to the latest United Nations human development index. Norway pips us by a flared nostril. Australia scores 0.93 on a scale of 0 to 1, where 1 is the highest score possible. At 0.94, Norway’s margin over Australia is close to invisible
37. G 20′s 2nd Highest per capita GDP: Australia, $54,869, behind Singapore, $62,100 UAE $49,600 USA $47,132 Germany $40, 512
38. Another entry to my beautiful set of numbers, Morgan primary no jul/Nov L-NP 52.5, 49, 47, 45 Vs ALP 27.5, 29.5, 31, 34, courtesy of Ari #auspol
39. How good are nations at keeping the promises made at G20 summits? – Australia NO: 1 –
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/grading-g20
40. The strength of the nation’s markets during the Global Financial Crisis was highlighted by the World Economic Forum, which in 2009 ranked Australia as the world’s second-best financial centre after the UK. Australia was the only country in the top 20 to improve its ranking.With around A$1.7 trillion in assets under management, Australia is the largest funds management market in Asia, and the fourth-largest in the world. Australia has one of the highest levels of managed funds per capita in the world, with total investment fund assets in Australia projected to reach A$7 trillion by 2028.
41. Poss’ beautiful 2PP trend http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg858/scaled.php?tn=0&server=858&filename=e8d.png&xsize=640&ysize=640
42. @geeksrulz: 1989: PM Hawke’s Pilot Dispute 1 Month, 1998: PM Howard’s Waterfront Dispute 6 Months, 2011: PM JG fixes #Qantas Dispute in 36 Hours
43. Ave weekly earning +4.7% in yr to Aug. 10 years of real wage gains.
44. Tony Abbott,11/11/11: Australia’s government debt – 8 per cent of GDP compared with 73 per cent in Britain and the US and 100 per cent in Italy”.
45. the size of the public sector in Australia (Federal, State and local government ) as a proportion of the economy has been around 33 percent; in Europe it ranges from 45 percent to 55 percent.
by The Finnigans on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:11 pm
rua,
Yeah, that’s where Westpac stole her from. Bastards!
by This little black duck on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:12 pm
shellbell @ 3444
thanks so much for your explanation. I think I’ve got it.
So, in this case
where News Int has hired PI’s to surveill (?) two lawyers acting for different clients but all clients are opposing News Int over the same issue
and Lawyer A acting for client A has legal access to documents from News Int.
then Lawyer B acting for client B is not allowed access to those documents from Lawyer A but only from News Int. If Lawyer A gave those docs to Lawyer B then it would be a case of professional misconduct.
And that’s what News Int was trying to discover by hiring PIs.
by kezza2 on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:13 pm
GG @ 3480
My local member
On the upside, a goon like that should be easier to beat than someone with a bit more class.
by bemused on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:13 pm
bemused,
How did he win in the first place?
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:15 pm
Is Horsey Pegasus or Hippocampus? Seems to have a split personality.
by This little black duck on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:16 pm
GG @ 3495
The seat was very marginal in the first place, I think the most marginal in the state.
And of course Mt Waverley is on a railway corridor and that is where the ALP got hit hard for it’s failure to deal with public transport issues. Of course the other mob will be worse as they are already proving.
by bemused on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Meanwhile The West breathlessly report:
by Frank Calabrese on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:20 pm
Just love our Poss:
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@randlight @Pollytics It’s OK poss. you put them in nice pictures, one day i will put them in: My Beautiful Set of Numbers: The Musical
1 minute ago
by The Finnigans on Dec 8, 2011 at 7:22 pm