Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Grattan responds to the news in her usual classy fashion:
by rishane on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:22 pm
poroti
The issues aren’t really related.
BH
There are only 18 functional in the whole country so your area isn’t very representative. They are having a lot of problems staffing them and are heavily dependent on foreign graduates.
by Diogenes on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:23 pm
rishane
So Rudd is in Germany?
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:23 pm
Scringler
The butter and milk is great .But to them add a touch of cumin. Lubberly.Unsalted butter I may add.
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:23 pm
Have no idea Victoria. Though I think his star is definitely ‘fading’. He’s done his super nova thing and is burning out now. Same with Abbott …. who emerged in response to Rudd’s flaring brightness.
I did do a ‘reading’ on the next election though …. the ‘Queen’ will be the victor. Seated at her side in support was the ‘owl’ (a wise man who sees to the truth) and the ‘cow’ (symbol of prosperity and recognition of success). Quite heartening for anyone of a superstitious nature.
by jenauthor on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:24 pm
victoria:
From twitter:
by confessions on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:25 pm
And whose fault is that ?
The AMA in Concert with the Howard Govt who basically castrated Uni places.
by Frank Calabrese on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:25 pm
Diogenes
The great Fred Hollows,Kiwi and former Australian of the year may take issue with cataracts and Aborigines being described as unreleated.
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:26 pm
jenauthor
Do the owl and cow represent other people or merely symbols?
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:26 pm
oops,
I meant curling. Ice, big rock, brooms.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:26 pm
And I wonder why that is, Dio? Libs cut GPs across the board. Govt cannot manufacture them from thin air.
by jenauthor on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Yes. Take no prisoners, Stephen.
by Scringler on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Other people symbolic of the ‘job’ they do.
Am thinking the people who advise on media will be part of it, and maybe a strategist who makes the ‘right’ calls? Time will tell.
by jenauthor on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:30 pm
swan is the owl
who is the cow?
by gusface on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Frank Calabrese
Ah the AMA the ONE the ONLY union that Howie thought was uber good.
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:33 pm
gus,
Moorabella.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:34 pm
For those interested in the ‘job search industry’….
Lengthy analysis by Elisabeth Wynhausen, author of ‘The Short Goodbye: A Skewed History of the Last Boom and the Next Bust’ (MUP, 2011), ‘On Resilience’ (MUP, 2009) and ‘Dirt Cheap: Life at the Wrong End of the Job Market’ (Pan Macmillan, 2005).
http://inside.org.au/unemployed-and-wrapped-in-red-tape/
by Pegasus on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:35 pm
gusface
I too thought Swan could be the owl.
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Good evening all!
Gee, it must have been a happy place in PB land with the last Newspoll of the year. Very very good news for ALP supporters I would think, after a pretty good ALP conference.
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Managed to get a bite on twitter out of Chris Kenny and Phil Coorey – they seem a bit sensitive and/or defensive:
by sprocket_ on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:40 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Check out Dunedin. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_dOUYlRto4
Hoots Mon http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rsjMpJcrCQ
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:40 pm
Greensborough Growler
Orrrrrrr Mordorbella ?
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:41 pm
Not sure — if it was straightforward, it wouldn’t be ‘mystical’. I think whoever runs the lead-up and next election campaign?
by jenauthor on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:42 pm
poroti, what about mortadella?
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:43 pm
Diogenes
According to Health Minister Roxon, the situation re GP super clinics:
7 September 2011: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2011/09/07/health-reform-implementation-plan/
by Pegasus on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:43 pm
The smallest intake was under Hawke.
Keating increased the numbers and then Howard dropped them again but not as low as Hawke had them.
Rudd/Gillard have increased the number quite dramatically.
by Diogenes on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:44 pm
jenauthor
Could be. Anyhow, i really wish that the Rudd “situation” gets resolved before the new Year. It is a real bummer
by victoria on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:44 pm
Nicola Roxon to High Court. Hmm
A politician appointed directly to High Court is very rare in recent years. Lionel Murphy QC is the only appointment from Labor since Evatt KC in 1931.
Murphy was 14 years out of practice when he was appointed (1961-1975). Roxon has not been in practice since 1998 and was much younger when she entered politics.
by shellbell on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:45 pm
Peg
There are a lot under construction. Those with “early services” often have minimal or no GPs working there.
by Diogenes on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:46 pm
meantime the population went up, no?
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:46 pm
poroti,
RE: Spuds. Here, up near Bendigo in Victoria, spuds grow well,
Have around seven varieties in … so I’ll see how they go.
by Scringler on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:48 pm
george
Boom Tish.
Ya gots me.
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:48 pm
I should have included the reference for the medical intake.
Look at the graph and see the huge projected intake up to 2016.
The reason Hawke and Howard decreased the intake was to restrict the number of doctors which was meant to reduce the health budget.
http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/186_06_190307/joy11334_fm.html
by Diogenes on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:49 pm
jenauthor @ 960
Doesn’t the militant doctors union have a hand in it too by wanting to restrict numbers and hence keep fees higher?
by bemused on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:49 pm
Is she with/without peppercorns?
by jenauthor on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:49 pm
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:51 pm
george
It certainly did but, more importantly, the number of people needing medical care (esp the elderly) went up went up a lot more than population growth and continues to go up.
Howard really failed the aging population with Abbott sitting on his hands as Health Minister. 11 years of inaction takes a long time to correct.
by Diogenes on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:52 pm
Diogenes,
Indeed, I was going to be more provocative in my post by saying Roxon’s spin.
by Pegasus on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:52 pm
Scringler
In a land far away and in a time long ago I worked in a research station that amongst other things studied potatoes. There is a real importance about solid % etc that makes some varieties great for chips and bad for other uses. Personally I like Sandgroper Royal Blues as an all rounder tattie.
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:54 pm
jenauthor
When it comes to young Sophie there is no pepper it be all corn.
by poroti on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:55 pm
ta for that peg
wil send it on
by gusface on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:56 pm
BTW, speaking of food, anyone know where they sell kununurra onions down here in Melbourne? Our potato guy would bring them in at the Prahran Market but hasn’t had them in for years.
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:56 pm
Nite folks … My FIL had a stroke last night (looking pretty good though — before you all send your best wishes — he has speech/memory/and paralysis only lasted a few hours — saved by warfarin, we think) but it has been a long, emotional day.
See (figuratively) you all tomorrow.
by jenauthor on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:57 pm
george:
You don’t need onions, you are bitter enough
(oh, c’mon…. it was a joke
)
by Mod Lib on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:58 pm
bemused
The government decides on the intake number. The public hospitals, AMA, Unis, state health depts all have an input but the Fed Govt makes the decision.
by Diogenes on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:58 pm
victoria @ 976
What is the ‘situation’ to which you refer?
by bemused on Dec 5, 2011 at 9:59 pm
‘Media missing the story’ should be the catchcry of my generation.
by confessions on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:00 pm
Ha! Shows what you know
These are the sweetest onions around – you can eat them like an apple Mod.
by george on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:00 pm
Maybe the cow is a symbol for people finally realising they’re better off financially.
by rishane on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:00 pm
Your Compadres in the AMA were so influencibng, they made the CFMEU look like a buch of Chiorboys.
by Frank Calabrese on Dec 5, 2011 at 10:00 pm