Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition
The latest Morgan poll combines the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveying, and shows a slight increase to the Coalition’s lead from the previous poll. Their primary vote is up a point to 46.5 per cent, with Labor steady on 36.5 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. The headline two-party figure has the Coalition leading 55.5-44.5, up from 54.5-45.5. The usual caveats should be added: Morgan’s face-to-face polls have showed a consistent bias to Labor over the years, but in the case of the two-party vote this is more than cancelled out by the highly idiosyncratic tendency of Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences to split about 50-50 between the two major parties. Applying the more reliable method of allocating preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has gone from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47.
Other poll news:
• The latest seat-level Queensland state automated phone poll by ReachTEL targets 369 respondents in Lytton, to be vacated at the election by the retirement of former Deputy Premier Paul Lucas. It shows Labor’s 12.0 per cent margin set to be erased by a swing of 23 per cent, following polls indicating swings of 27 per cent in Stretton, 15 per cent in Ferny Grove, 26 per cent in Ipswich and 20 per cent in Bundamba. The poll for Lytton has the primary votes at 26 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP, 13 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party and 9 per cent for the Greens. ReachTEL’s imperfect two-party measure (“if you were forced to make a choice between the two following candidates who would you choose?”) has the LNP leading at 62-38. Standard caveat: ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings indicated are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling. Labor will preselect its candidate for Lytton tomorrow, the contenders being Peter Cumming, a Wynnum-Manly ward councillor and Left faction member, and Daniel Cheverton, described in the Wynnum Herald as a former policy adviser to Rachel Nolan who now works for an engineering company.
• A poll conducted for Australian Marriage Equality as part of Galaxy’s online omnibus surveying finds 80 per cent support for a Coalition conscience vote on same-sex marriage, with only 14 per cent opposed. It also has only 25 per cent nominating Labor as the party that best represents its views on same-sex marriage, compared with 32 per cent Liberal, 3 per cent Nationals and 13 per cent Greens, with 17 per cent for “none/don’t know”. The poll was conducted from November 25-27 from a sample of 1051; see here for delightfully detailed tables. This follows a similar poll in August which had 29 per cent strongly agreeing that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 31 per cent agreeing, 14 per cent disagreeing and 18 per cent strongly disagreeing. A striking gender divide was evident, with women twice as likely as men to strongly support same-sex marriage and men twice as likely as men to strongly oppose it, along with effects in the expected direction according to age and religion.
Despatches from last weekend’s ALP National Conference:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Queensland Politics
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 9:57 pm
The Coalition is up a bit, Tony must have been stuffed in the cupboard for a couple of weeks.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:00 pm
madcyril:
I can’t remember. All I can recall is someone off to the side moving in their own space.
by confessions on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:01 pm
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:02 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3387976.htm
Mediawatch reports some strange behaviour by the Australian in regard to the Overland affair and it’s angst with the Office of Police Integrity. Chris Mitchell apparently berated the ABC for giving any airtime to former OPI Director Micheal Strong.
So the Editor in Chief of the Australian is publicly telling the ABC what to do? Why am I not shocked?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Hilarious. What has Dutton contributed in the 4 years he’s held the portfolio for the opposition? Nothing, that’s what.
by confessions on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:03 pm
The AHA is demand Tim Costello apologise to their poster boy Riley or pay back the tsunami donations.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-09/costello-pulled-up-on-pokies-hypocracy/3723296
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:04 pm
William:
Reading between the lines, William, ‘highly idiosyncratic’ = ‘very stupid’?
by don on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Any bets on when the reshuffle will be announced. I was thinking Sunday, but have seen Monday mentioned on Twitter
by madcyril on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Dee
The tragedy is that for the Fibs Bronnie and Kevin ARE the “young guns”
by poroti on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Dee,
There’s a strong rebuttal of the AHA’s claims re Costello floating about.
Demonising Costello is a particularly dumb move.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Why does Morgan persist with respondent allocated preferences when last election is more reliable.
I think William you should revert to using the more reliable figure in your headline.
by Andrew on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:09 pm
In the section on marriage equality at the top of this thread it says “men are twice as likely as men to oppose it”.
by Tom the first and best on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:10 pm
A constant stream of spin, slogans, bile, Question Time disorderliness, and media soundbites.
by Cuppa on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:10 pm
So, that’s charity with strings attached. AHA scum.
by george on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Gaffhook,
Nice pickup!
by This little black duck on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:16 pm
And the limp lettuce leaf is used once again.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-09/2gb-wont-be-punished-for-conduct-breach/3722788
by BK on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:16 pm
Dee,
Found the link.
http://www.cyenne.com/discussion/tim-costello-is-not-a-hypocrite-the-full-story/
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:16 pm
Leveson is supposed to be Mon – Thu.
by This little black duck on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:16 pm
george
That august body may well have just overplayed its hand.
by BK on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Peter Phelps has been showing off his charming side again.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-nsw/peter-phelps-slams-twitter-critic-go-f-yourself-and-you-cant-complain-i-put-in-a-smiley/story-e6freuzi-1226218540261
by Haydn on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:18 pm
Gosh went to make the milk. And u had all left, found u all
Yes I agree with andrew,
by my say on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Live blog http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/blog/2011/dec/09/leveson-inquiry-richard-thomas-live
by This little black duck on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:19 pm
OMG has an organisation EVER asked for charity to be REPAID? Surely this is a new low? Disgraceful
by Andrew on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:21 pm
So dee s post 4 what does that mean for the area now
by my say on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:23 pm
What are you referring to Andrew?
by confessions on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:23 pm
GG
Thanks!
Truly despicable.
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:24 pm
With all this going on
The pokes policy will be more popular
by my say on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:25 pm
Mr Jay is formidable.
by This little black duck on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:26 pm
fess,
Clubs Australia are demanding Costello pay back over $500k donated during the Tsunami.
Read the link above to get the full tawdry picture.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:27 pm
My Say
When you read the article, it indicates that no-one is quite sure how this is going to play out.
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:28 pm
The actions of Clubs Australia is apalling. I wouldn’t want any youngster of mine playing sport in a club or team financed by those disgusting creeps.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:28 pm
,,,
by my say on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:29 pm
Journos were a protected species in Operation Motorman.
by This little black duck on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:30 pm
I just have a feeling this public brawl will annoy people
by my say on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:31 pm
BK @ 17
Kinda makes you wonder just what you would have to do to incur the wrath of ACMA.
They should have thrown the book at the sick bastards on ‘hate radio’ over that ugly stunt. It was not a ‘one off’ they were also putting out the story that the grieving relatives were taken on a sightseeing trip including climbing the Harbour Bridge.
Just sick beyond belief.
by bemused on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:31 pm
Confessions
The ultimatum put to Tim Costello.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-09/costello-pulled-up-on-pokies-hypocracy/3723296
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:32 pm
People were excited about dolphins on a cup the other night. Check this one out.
http://t.co/R8xhD7HT
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:33 pm
My Say
Which public brawl My Say?
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:33 pm
GG:
The post I linked to yesterday stated quite clearly that World Vision had rejected a donations offer from Clubs Australia.
Somebody isn’t telling the truth.
by confessions on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:34 pm
Dee @ 37
The AHA should be told that he will do that as soon as they start returning the proceeds of crime that get put through their poker machines.
by bemused on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:35 pm
fes,
Read the link at 18. all s revealed.
by Greensborough Growler on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:35 pm
My Say
Must put my glasses on.
Understand what you mean.
Yes, it will annoy people & let’s hope the clubs are the ones to suffer for it & not those who have dedicated their lives to charitable works.
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:42 pm
by confessions on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:49 pm
GG:
Someone is lying. Time will reveal all.
by confessions on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:50 pm
Mr Thomas is having a VERY hard time defending not pursuing journalists.
by This little black duck on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:51 pm
The TV angles at Leveson are excellent: face on to counsel and face on to the witness; and whoever is in charge of the cameras is switching perfectly.
by This little black duck on Dec 9, 2011 at 10:59 pm
Confessions
From your link.
Errr, Sloppy does an about turn.
by Dee on Dec 9, 2011 at 11:01 pm
Clubs Australia will only come to heel when Woolworths is hit with complaints about the funds they supply that organisation with. A buyer boycott will remind them that many of their customers do not approve of one sided political games.
by joe2 on Dec 9, 2011 at 11:02 pm
Dee,
I can see our msm honing in on that, not. It is damning evidence of the Oops incompetence and mendacity.
by This little black duck on Dec 9, 2011 at 11:04 pm