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Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1830 comments

1,830 thoughts on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

  1. rummel

    yay am sick of xmas pollbludger cold turkey

  2. Darn

    Hi Rummel and anyone else tuned in. Happy new year. It’s great to be back on air.

  3. Darn

    Happy new year William. I hope you’ve had a good break over the last two and a bit weeks.

  4. rummel

    Darn.

    It is good to be back…… how sad, but nothing compares.

  5. Darn

    [Darn.

    It is good to be back…… how sad, but nothing compares.]

    I’ll drink to that.

  6. rummel

    Facebook is a amazing entity. Just found out 24 minutes ago my mate’s little brother died… suspected insulin hypo episode. Technology/internet gives you the means to call in to the cops in SA about your missing family member, then tune into police scanners and listen to then give a message re a death notice to your parents place… how sad.

  7. cud chewer

    We apologise for the inconvenience and we now return you to your regularly scheduled bitchfest! 🙂

  8. Frank Calabrese

    Two weeks and you you children missed Joe6psck expose Tony’s Cunning Stunt as a fraud and a possible criminal activity 🙂

  9. rummel

    Frank Calabrese

    oh and JWH being awarded top champion by the queen.

  10. Frank Calabrese

    9

    [rummel

    Posted Monday, January 9, 2012 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    oh and JWH being awarded top champion by the queen.
    ]

    A Senior’s Moment by Betty 🙂

  11. Darn

    [oh and JWH being awarded top champion by the queen.]

    Yes, we all had a good laugh at that.

  12. This little black duck

    Morning / Evening and Happy new Year. There’s a full moon out there and I thought I might go bay at it. It’s not till Monday night, though.

    More fun and games with Leveson coming up.

  13. This little black duck

    The line-up:

    Live coverage of the media ethics inquiry resumes at 10am on 9 January 2012, with evidence from:
    • Duncan Larcombe, the Sun’s royal editor
    • Kelvin Mackenzie, former editor of the Sun
    • Dominic Mohan, editor of the Sun
    • Gordon Smart, the editor of the Sun’s “Bizarre” showbusiness column
    • Justin Walford, the Sun’s legal manager
    Nb: the inquiry team has not announced the order in which the day’s witnesses will appear.

    h­ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8167000/8167512.stm

  14. Apple Blossom

    Hi everyone,

    Hope you all had a good Christmas and New Year.

    I couldn’t find any polls during William’s absence. I usually see them on the Oz website, but I couldn’t find them.

    Damn my terrible eyes and finding skills.

  15. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Happy New Year everyone. Fluff up the cushions, break out the drinks, bring on the nibbles, the PB Lounge has reopened. Did someone repaint the walls?

  16. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Hello William,welcome back.I hope you enjoyed your holiday.

  17. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Duckie,
    Leveson – popcorn – feet up – go!

  18. Frank Calabrese

    [Did someone repaint the walls?]

    No,

    But this place old and drab compared to…..

    http://afrankview.net/

  19. This little black duck

    Just passing through the lounge to see who is throwing cushions. On the way to bed. Hasta luego!

  20. Lyne Lady

    morning all and happy new year! wow! it’s great to be back on the pb site with all like minded friends. let’s hope it’s a cracker year!

  21. The Finnigans

    Good Morning to all PBs.

    Just in case some of you missed the big news on AFV yesterday.

    The inaugural meeting of the PB’s Groucho Marx Chapter happened on Saturday under the gaze of the Sydney Harbour Bridge. The founding members were: GG, Gussie and your truly.

    Yes, we did take a photo and yes, we are NOT afraid to publish it, unlike the cowardly SA Chapter who met last year. Here is the photo:

    http://cache2.artprintimages.com/lrg/37/3705/LPEAF00Z.jpg

    And a big thank to Frank and Ru for providing AFV to cover the silly season. Also for keep on developing the site as an alternative platform to PB, just incase Crickey did a Huffington, especially now that Rupe has joined and circling Twitter

  22. my say

    I know finns that you with the hat on

    my new years resultion, more quilting, more sewing, me time lol
    less blogging. more jogging,

    my oh now retired is now walking 4 k every morning, me I trundle along with the dog.
    and meet him coming back

    finns can you post the stuff about the truck, it was such great threatre,
    I hope joe 6 pac got on his radio to let all the qld truckies know
    I think aboot, put up the labor vote amoungst them.

  23. The Finnigans

    The experts are totally divided, confused and havent got a clue about what is happening or going to happen to the Chinese economy. Ranging from total collapse, hard landing, status quo, soft landing to plowing ahead. Just select and take your poison.

    But like the tide, as they like to say in China, life goes on, it comes and goes.

    [China’s December Lending, Money Supply Signal Easing Conditions – Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) — China’s December lending and money supply growth exceeded economists’ estimates, signaling monetary conditions may be easing as the nation’s central banker said it must be prepared for possible shocks from the U.S. and Europe.

    New loans totaled 640.5 billion yuan ($101 billion) for the month, exceeding the estimates of all 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. M2, a measure of money supply, rose 13.6 percent, compared with the 12.9 percent median of 18 estimates.

    People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday the nation must be ready to combat possible shocks from Europe’s debt crisis and an uncertain U.S. economic outlook, echoing comments by Premier Wen Jiabao. China last month cut the reserve requirement for banks for the first time since 2008 as Europe’s debt crisis eroded demand for its exports and consumer prices moderated to the slowest pace in 14 months.

    “This is better-than-expected monetary data, suggesting monetary conditions have started to ease,” said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., who previously worked at the World Bank. Liu said he expects that the central bank may cut the reserve requirement again before the Lunar New Year on Jan. 23. “Such easing will help ensure a soft landing for the Chinese economy,” he said.]

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-08/china-s-december-lending-money-supply-signal-easing-conditions.html

  24. don

    BK, where are you? Need my dawn patrol fix!

    :kiss:

  25. The Finnigans

    Good Morning My Say and Good New Year.

    Methinks we should let Joe post his expose of Abbott’s deception himself here on PB.

    btw: i always leave my hat on. :kiss:

  26. The Finnigans

    Horsey, it’s New Year. All is forgiven, please come back. 👿

  27. Socrates

    Morning all and happy new year.

    Finns regarding China I caught up with an economist who I follow on them over the break and even he doesn’t know. Your guess is as good as mine.

  28. dave

    Good Morning one and all.

    Good to see people back and best wishes for 2012.

  29. BK

    Good morning fellow Bludgers returning from withdrawal. Frank provided welcome respite with his now nice looking site.
    So it’s Happy New Year to you all.
    We started the year with my daughter and her boyfriend (a township local) announcing their engagement. Good stuff!
    Looks like a slow news day again, but here goes with the morning links.
    A good sideswipe at reality TV here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/biggest-losers-from-tv-obesity-cures-are-gullible-viewers-20120108-1pq0g.html
    And for those who missed it, Cynthia Banham wrote a lovely piece on her experience through reference to Christopher Hicthens’ death.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/hitchens-helped-ease-the-journey-for-a-kindred-spirit-20120105-1pmqc.html
    A good Alan Moir cartoon in the Popeye series.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html?selectedImage=5

  30. BK

    I suppose this will get a mention when parliament begins.
    http://www.americablog.com/2012/01/scientists-confirm-ohio-and-oklahoma.html
    From a Lawrence O’Donnell piece on Newt Gingrich. The Pious Repugs may not like this. Then again, maybe they will.
    [“Remember, this is the guy, who when he was running for office, thought it was cool to have oral sex with another man’s wife in a suburban driveway while his kids were walking past the car.”]