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Queensland election: March 24

Anna Bligh has today announced the Queensland state election will be held on March 24, after the state's floods inquiry was recalled to hear what

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Anna Bligh has today announced the Queensland state election will be held on March 24, after the state’s floods inquiry was recalled to hear what Hedley Thomas of The Australian describes as “extraordinary new evidence that suggests the wrong strategy was used to manage Wivenhoe Dam days before Brisbane was inundated”.

Bligh explained today that it had been her intention to hold a poll on March 3, but she will now hold off until after the inquiry reports on March 16. This amounts to an effective campaign of over eight weeks (although she will not visit the Governor to officially call the election until February 19), which may be without precedent in Australia at least so far as past three or four decades are concerned. It had generally been thought that a long campaign would be in Bligh’s interests, as it allows an incumbent trailing by a long margin to hope that either the Opposition Leader or the party behind him might fracture under the pressure.

The state’s local government elections, previously due on March 31, will now be delayed until after Easter to allow for more clear air after the state election. It was reported earlier this month that the Electoral Commission of Queensland wanted a six months gap on either side of the council elections for logistical reasons.

For comprehensive details on each of the state’s 89 electorates, look no further than the Poll Bludger’s election guide.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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120 comments

120 thoughts on “Queensland election: March 24

  1. Lynchpin

    Hooray – I am the first.

    I predict an LNP win, quite comfortably.

  2. steve

    William link says:

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    The requested URL /qld2012 was not found on this server.

    Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

    Does that mean the LNP has quite comfortably won the Queensland election as predicted by Lynchpin and your electoral guide is no longer required?

  3. stanny

    I would also expect a comfortable LNP win which ultimately will not help the ALP federally as yet again the state government will get an 18 month honeymoon period more or less. COAG will be a real thorn in the side for the federal government after that I suspect.
    At some point in 2012 Peter Slipper will either vote against this government on a major issue or resign as his benefits will be secure by then. It is highly unlikely that Kevin Rudd who is close to Slipper will not be having a crack at the top job. At that point Thornleih Labor Man Evan 14 etc will be validated.

  4. MDMConnell

    Last one to try this sort of strategy I believe was Joan Kirner in 1992….I think it was a 7 1/2 week campaign, praying for Jeff to implode.

    Needless to say that didn’t work very well.

  5. DavidWH

    I hope for a LNP win but hope it’s not too comfortable. I actually believe in government where oppositions are in a position to hold the government to account at some level. Personally I think the standard of the opposition is almost as important as the standard of government and have been disappointed in QLD on both fronts for far too long.

  6. Bluehale

    So does anyone want to guess who will wind up with more seats after this is all over, Queensland Labor or NSW Labor?

  7. William Bowe

    MDMConnell, some might point to John Howard’s six-week campaign in 2004 – thought highly unorthodox at the time – which was tailored to expose Mark Latham, and appeared very much to do just that.

  8. ruawake

    Has there been a time when Parliament has sat for a week during a defacto election campaign?

    The sitting week in Feb will be painful for Newman sitting in the gallery.

  9. DavidWH

    I’m sure Labor will leverage off that rua. It’s not a bad strategy Bligh has decided on actually. Takes away the LNP rhetoric about the election date while still exposing the strangeness of the opposition leader being outside the parliament.

  10. Ian

    So, the wholly owned subsiduary of Clive Palmer Enterprises will have his chance. I wonder how many Qlders will sell their souls and integrity for $12000.00 pm. gicven the chance.

  11. ruawake

    I think the Flood enquiry stuff is genuine from Bligh, It may help her, it may hurt her but we need to know what it says before voting.

  12. steve

    [exposing the strangeness of the opposition leader being outside the parliament.]

    The Opposition Leader sits in the Parliament and is paid an extra $60 000 for this role. His name is Jeff Seeney.

  13. Frank Calabrese

    [9

    Ian

    Posted Wednesday, January 25, 2012 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    So, the wholly owned subsiduary of Clive Palmer Enterprises will have his chance. I wonder how many Qlders will sell their souls and integrity for $12000.00 pm. gicven the chance.
    ]
    Just like those who sold their souls to Emporer Barnett in WA on the back of Rorts for Regions which Young Clive helped Bankroll the WA Nats with.

  14. Frank Calabrese

    BTW Rua,
    Batphone please.

    We now return you to your regularly scheduled post on Quiinceland Politics 🙂

  15. DavidWH

    Bligh did very well during the floods rua.

  16. Lynchpin

    [The Opposition Leader sits in the Parliament and is paid an extra $60 000 for this role. His name is Jeff Seeney.]

    Steve, what is Newman’s current official title in the LNP, if he has one?

  17. ruawake

    I listened to the KAP candidate for Buderim on the radio the other day the ABC reporter said Bob Katter got a ‘rockstar’ reception from the crowd.

    In Buderim? Maybe he will get his 20%

  18. steve

    Courier Mail looking suspiciously like it is sitting on the next Galaxy poll. The LNP cheersquad will not be happy.

    [ANNA Bligh has done the best thing for Queenslanders – and herself on the way through – by setting the state election date and delaying the council poll.

    The flood inquiry needed extra time to report its findings and the Premier wants this out in the public before voting takes place in either poll.

    Just imagine the scenario of finding out after you voted that the State Government, or local council for that matter, botched the response to the flood.

    Voters would be right to feel cheated. Setting the state election date for March 24 ensures this happens.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/analysis-later-poll-the-right-move/story-fnbwr276-1226253351149?sv=eaa5d755c21674799ea1af33541d9af0

  19. Frank Calabrese

    [DavidWH

    Posted Wednesday, January 25, 2012 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    Bligh did very well during the floods rua.
    ]

    So did John Brumby during Black Saturday – he still lost.

  20. steve

    Whitlam gave Brisbane whatever they needed in the 1974 floods and by the next year none of them would vote for him. Campell Newman bolts out of City Hall and we are yet to see what the response is.

  21. Greensborough Growler

    Hawke ran a very long campaign in 1984 which should have cured all of long election campaigns.

  22. William Bowe

    It did for a time, but Howard calculated the situation was different in 2004 and appeared to be vindicated. My point would be that a long campaign benefits whichever side has the more disciplined leader, be it the incumbent or the opposition.

  23. Lynchpin

    William, do you know how long Keating’s 1993 campaign was?

  24. Frank Calabrese

    [tennewsqldTEN News Queensland

    Ten News at 5: Anna Bligh & Campbell Newman talk live on the State Election. Plus have your say on who’ll you vote for on March 24.

    2 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply]

  25. steve

    LNP out a few cents and ALP in about a dollar since Thursday.

    https://www.tomwaterhouse.com/Elections.asp?cgroup=219301

  26. William Bowe

    Lynchpin, Keating called the election on February 7 – a day after Carmen Lawrence’s government suffered a less-bad-than-expected defeat in WA – and it was held on March 13. So only slightly longer than usual I’d think.

  27. steve

    I haven’t looked at Ashgrove before but for the record here it is.

    https://www.tomwaterhouse.com/Elections.asp?cgroup=219302

  28. Lynchpin

    [Lynchpin, Keating called the election on February 7 – a day after Carmen Lawrence’s government suffered a less-bad-than-expected defeat in WA – and it was held on March 13. So only slightly longer than usual I’d think.]

    Thanks William. Just long enough to confuse the electorate over the GST but not long enough to allow Hewson to explain it.

  29. steve

    Hewson was so hoarse that he could hardly speak or be heard let alone explain anything. This was how we found him in King George Square the day before the election. He had the smell of defeat about him just like Newman does.

  30. Lynchpin

    [Hewson was so hoarse that he could hardly speak or be heard let alone explain anything. This was how we found him in King George Square the day before the election. He had the smell of defeat about him just like Newman does.]

    Steve, do you seriously think Newman smells like defeat? Aren’t the polls saying 60/40 TPP in his favour?

  31. steve

    [Steve, do you seriously think Newman smells like defeat? Aren’t the polls saying 60/40 TPP in his favour?]

    For a man being watching free to do whatever he wants and free from parliamentary scrutiny it is what you would expect. He runs from scrutiny and the $5 Billion unfunded election promises will stop him.

  32. Lynchpin

    Steve, I hope you are right.

  33. steve

    I seriously think it will come down to a Seeney/Bligh showdown if Ashgrove goes against Newman.

  34. ruawake

    [Steve, do you seriously think Newman smells like defeat? Aren’t the polls saying 60/40 TPP in his favour?]

    There have been no relaible polls for yonks, we have had newspoll qtrly extrapolations, reachtel robo thingos, I suspect a legit Galaxy soon, maybe after the Aus Day weekend.

  35. steve

    It will be a funny sight if the National Party has to elbow Newman out of the way during an election campaign. That hasn’t been done since Springborg had to contend with Bruce Flegg during an election campaign.

  36. Lynchpin

    [I seriously think it will come down to a Seeney/Bligh showdown if Ashgrove goes against Newman.]

    The electorate will be voting as if Newman is the leader, and a winning leader, won’t they – so that the chances of a Seeney vs Bligh showdown won’t rteally eventuate.

  37. steve

    [The electorate will be voting as if Newman is the leader, and a winning leader, won’t they – so that the chances of a Seeney vs Bligh showdown won’t rteally eventuate.]

    Newman is a big risk of either exploding with his temper or imploding from being unable to handle the pressure of the campaign. I wouldn’t like to bet on which will happen first.

    It is a big step up from Lord Mayor of Brisbane to fighting a whole state government for their jobs. Scrutiny is the name of the game at this level and I have yet to see Newman withstand any pressure. He even avoided parliament completely for the past year has not answered one question, given no speeches, not had to work with backbenchers, etc.

    By definition now he will be pinned down in Ashgrove for most of the campaign we will see him in a lot different light to him swanning around the state promising answers closer to the election and making unfunded promised, walking away from press conferences etc.

  38. ruawake

    [Newman is a big risk of either exploding with his temper or imploding from being unable to handle the pressure of the campaign.]

    I reckon he will trip up on details. He is fine on message, off script – toast. The Qld media to their credit are attacking both sides.

  39. steve

    This example of Newman’s work shows why his poll figures are artificially inflated and shows the riskiness of the poll slide when everything promised has to be accounted for late in the campaign. The polling on Newman is all upside and the downside is all before him and tied

    [But the former Brisbane lord mayor, who said the plan would cost $9 million in lost revenue in the first year, would not reveal how an LNP government would pay for the scheme.

    “All our election commitments, as you know, will be fully costed and independently audited and provided prior to the election for people to consider,” Mr Newman told reporters.

    “There will be all sorts of things we will be committing to and reforms that we’ll be promising and they’ll need to be considered in an entirety prior to the election.”

    The state election is due in March next year.

    Treasurer Andrew Fraser said Mr Newman should be honest about where the funds would come from.

    “Now he’s hiding what job cuts he’ll enforce or what taxes he’ll increase to pay for his promises,” Mr Fraser said.

    “With his track record, he makes Milli Vanilli look honest and genuine.”]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8369343/lnp-offers-bonus-to-south-east-commuters

  40. aaronkirk

    anyone believing that Newman is going to be in a dog fight for Ashgrove has rocks in their heads, the consistent public polling from both Galaxy and ReachTel, as well as internal polling from both parties has Newman getting 50% of primary vote. ALP are no chance and Newman will be the new premier.

  41. Diogenes

    Just for the record, sportingbet has ALP $5.75 and LNP $1.12.

  42. ruawake

    [consistent public polling from both Galaxy and ReachTel]

    When was the last Galaxy poll in Qld? Has Reachtel shown a swing to the ALP in every poll they have conducted in Ashgrove?

  43. docantk

    HUNG PARLIAMENT! LNP 44 seats, ALP 38 seats, KAP 3 seats, IND 4 seats

  44. steve

    [anyone believing that Newman is going to be in a dog fight for Ashgrove has rocks in their heads, the consistent public polling from both Galaxy and ReachTel, as well as internal polling from both parties has Newman getting 50% of primary vote. ALP are no chance and Newman will be the new premier.]

    Yes and Springborg was consistently declared the winner of the last Queensland State election by every Tory who wandered in to tell us the way it all works. Come back on March 25 and tell me all about it. Did you see both party’s polling as a bonus? Reachtel is real scientific isn’t it. How do you know they are dialling Ashgrove mobile phones and not the phone numbers of young Liberals?

  45. steve

    Galaxy screamed a headline Campbell improves out of sight no doubt. Hare and tortoise or Chickens and hatching mean anything to a Tory?

    http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/

  46. Joe6pack

    qld is not like nsw. not over or a shoe in .

  47. steve

    [the consistent public polling from both Galaxy and ReachTel]

    [Polling is currently underway for the Queensland State Elections.

    The latest advice has Campbell Newman on shaky ground in Ashgrove with support for sitting member Kate Jones rising.

    This was the seat the future would be premier was expected to walk it in.]

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2011/11/ashgrove-and-mt-coot-tha-polling-.html