UPDATE: The first Newspoll result of the year has just been reported, and I’m sticking it on the top of the existing post because of technical difficulties we’re having. The poll has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, in common with Essential Research and Galaxy (see below), and indeed with last year’s final Newspoll result from December 2-4. However, Newspoll has both parties solidly lower on the primary vote than the other two pollsters, at 30 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition – which is respectively down one and up one on the December poll. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is also down three points to 33 per cent and her disapproval is down one to 55 per cent. Tony Abbott’s numbers are all but identical to Gillard’s, his approval steady on 32 per cent and disapproval down two to 55 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-36 to 40-37.
The Daily Telegraph reports Galaxy’s first poll of federal voting intention since October is in line with other recent polling in showing the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. However, Kevin Rudd’s big lead over Julia Gillard in a head-to-head contest for preferred Labor leader is essentially unchanged at 52 per cent to 30 per cent, compared with 53 per cent to 29 per cent in October. When Bill Shorten is thrown in as a third contender he scores 14 per cent to Rudd’s 44 per cent and Gillard’s 27 per cent. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday (i.e. today if you’re reading this soon enough) from a sample of 1001, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.
Essential Research has the Coalition leading 54-46 from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens, which differs from last week only in that the Greens are a point higher, and is exactly the same as the week before. The supplementary questions include some zingers, not least the finding that our greatest Prime Ministers of the past 70 years were John Howard (33 per cent, up from 28 per cent when the question was last asked in January 2009) followed by Kevin Rudd and Bob Hawke (15 per cent). Howard scores no less than 61 per cent among Coalition voters, leaving Bob Menzies for dust on 18 per cent, while Labor supporters divide much more evenly between Hawke and Rudd, and to a lesser extent Whitlam and Keating. Poor old Malcolm Fraser scores a third of Gough Whitlam, a fifth of Bob Hawke and an eleventh of John Howard. Also featured are blast-from-the-past questions on how respondents rate the Building the Education Revolution: 30 per cent good and 31 per cent poor, although that includes 15 per cent very poor and only 7 per cent very good. Desire for a new election is essentially unchanged on December, at 40 per cent for and 48 per cent against, and support for a trial of mandatory pre-commitment is at 58 per cent with 29 per cent opposed – though I would sooner have seen support for it compared with a non-trial introduction before the election
7,262 Comments
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Diogenes @ 5548
I lost a niece to melanoma and could never understand why solariums were permitted in the first place.
They should have been nipped in the bud.
BB:
Well said.
BB,
Yes it’s the MSM disconnect. They spend all their time talking with other journos and lying pollies that their bullshit detectors are blunted and they are unable to see the reality that mere mortals arranging for their kids meals, working their arse off or arranging for the next holiday are disengaged and don’t give a flying fruit cake about all the political machinations.
Sells copy I suppose.
bemused 5544 – read it again.
So he makes a statement of ‘fact’ then says it’s hard to gauge. Well then how does Carney know what the situation is?
bemused
The reality I have been trying to express here on PB is that the Labor Party are ruining their own chances to continue to govern and have a shot at the next election. Whether it is Rudd supporters causing the mischief or others, Labor are doing a great job of shooting themselves in the foot.
Bemused @ 5544….
“An uncomfortable reality for most on PB, but a reality none the less.”
Oh…so now reality is what you decide it is, eh Bemused?
Must review my long held belief about reality vs opinion…
ABC online
One.
(Who’s counting??)
Hartcher concludes with this:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/every-which-way-its-rudd-20120203-1qxlh.html#ixzz1lN9wrkEz
I don’t think anything will happen until the second half of the year. Not based on any special knowledge, just think with the Qld election, legislative program and budget coming up, any change would be better made (if it was to be made) after they were out of the way.
kinkajou
I cancelled my fairfax subscription late last year and told them why. Only problem is I still keep getting the weekend Age, and I have not been able to ascertain why.
…hmmm…now changed to 5543….
Gary @ 5554
I haven’t read Carney yet. Usually don’t bother with Costello’s biographer.
With the majority of Liberal supporters preferring Kevin to Julia and the majority of Labor voters preferring Julia to Kevin, Labor should maintain the status quo for the next Federal Election and run on the slogan “a vote for Gillard is a vote for Rudd“.
bemused
I am of the opinion that after July there will be some changes in the Labor Party. Whether this means a new leader, I dont know. All I know is that going back to Rudd will not improve Labor’s chances at the next election.
Personally, I would rather eye off Abbott first, and see who the coaliton replace him with. That could give team Labor the impetus to go in a totally different direction. Anything this side of July, would be a disaster
lizzie @ 5557
He notably declined to support JG, preferring to support ‘the Prime Minister’.
What? You used part of his article to say, ““An uncomfortable reality for most on PB, but a reality none the less” and you haven’t read the bloody thing?’ LOL
Channeling is always better than reading…
bemused,
I was just reading up on the timeline of knowledge of asbestos dangers.
http://www.mesorc.com/asbestos-exposure/info/asbestos-timeline
I’m outa here….worse than Twitter….
markjs
Sorry. What has upset you?
bemusec,
to read that into dicks statement
is not to know the man
I know him wellas do my so in laws family
and if he was just saying pm. so what
PTMD @ 5567
Interesting stuff about asbestos.
I was very disappointed that those who knew the dangers but did nothing and allowed people to die a terrible death as a consequence did not do some serious jail time.
Puff
So the dangers were known two thousand years ago!!
Congratulations fellow PBers, we have scaled the depths.
my say @ 5570
Didk Adams was asked if he supported Julia Gillard and he responded that he supported the Prime Minister.
The reporter pressed him on this and he would not change his words and name Julia Gillard.
Draw your own conclusion.
Bemused,
This is what ALP members in your neck of the woods should be doing!
http://www.danielbowen.com/2012/02/04/bentleigh-pt-flyers/
Numbers keep changing. Is that the gentle ‘snip’ of scissors I hear coming from the west?
Scarpat
PB will be a happy place again when team Labor slay the enemy!!!
5544
looks like one of those stories
where there is actually no story
No.
I took the time to write too every member this morning
composed a letter and copied,
I have noticed a few have bounced back due to to much traffic I think
i would suppose they will be on retry’
GG
Daughter travels on different train lines all the time. She said that services have gone backwards since change of govt. Ballieu and his merry team have achieved sfa
I would say. dick is loyal, to the party and the pm
but i do know dick
no comment
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-04/authroities-fear-levee-charleville-levee-will-break/3811414
Midday is 5mins away in Qld. Is there are more up to date report?
Fair and balanced piece about Gillard and the coming year by Michael Gordon of the Age.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/after-the-tumble-and-staffer-bumble-shes-ready-to-rumble-20120203-1qxny.html
GG @ 5574
That is damn good stuff. We would need to come up with a variation of it on my line though. The Glen Waverley line is probably the best (of a bad lot) and the first level crossing heading toward the city is at Glen Iris. There is also a new multi-level car park being built at Glen Waverley for commuters (started by the prev Govt.). So we are comparatively well off.
Down the south of the electorate, outside the area covered by my branch, the Dandenong line is a different story. But we hold those seats already.
We need to identify issues that bite in seats like Mt Waverley and Burwood.
bemused @5574,
Mr Smith also stated that “now is not time to change the leader. ”
Pretty clear to me.
As you posted, Mr Smith stated that he supports the leader.
Who is the leader ?
Pretty clear to me.
This has all been done to death.
Nothing will happen. The PM will continue in her role.
The MSM have been listening to a very small number of stirrers who hold no power.
For example, one paper this morning was on about Bowen being offered the job of treasurer. Yet, in another paper from the same stable Shorten will be the next treasurer under Rudd.
Give us a break.
BTW, a couple of the stirrers may need to protect there own backs come pre selection time unless they toe the company line.
Enough from me.
All is good.
Settle one and all.
Which part of “and does not think it is time for a leadership change.” do you not comprehend, bemused? You’re taking cherry picking to an extraordinary level.
the uncmforable reality for u be used and the member u represent
would be an election and the fact help,give us abbott
you are a hard person to figure , though u like the party but don’t wnt us in gov.
is that right
Confessions
Do you recall what part of QLD OPT lives? she has not been on PB for a while and I am a little concerned
1% majority. In other words 50/50. So all those who support Rudd and are not Labor voters….is where the election is.
Have to laugh at the moron who said he would resign if Gillard was dumped for Rudd, just lost Labor a bunch of more votes since all those Rudd supporters not voting Labor wont be well disposed to Labor with such comments.
Oh how it must rile Gillard. Thinking it was a simple matter of knifing Rudd and bingo she would be super popular, but almost didn’t make it. And has been PM over a very unpopular Labor govt and Rudd miles ahead of her in the public eye. The public are giving her a big negative tick on performance and character.
But almost nobody here wants to put any responsibility of the govts standing on the back of Gillard. On the contrary every excuse possible is being made for her, which in itself is an indication she is a failure. Funny, hey, the Leader of the Govt isn’t responsible for anything bad about the govt, but is for everything positive.
And the Gillard negotiator meme? It seems this fantasy is all that her PB supporters have. But it too is a myth.
I’m with the group that Rudd shouldn’t do anything except what he has been doing, an effective FA minister and let the party choke itself to death on Gillard and her little nasties that we see coming out in the media now to attack Rudd because they are worried.
Labor will fester on its own poison until such time they will be begging Rudd, or anybody really, to replace Gillard.
as I said. to be I know dick adams. well
he chats on a weekly basis to a member of the family who has a business in his electorate.
that’s his way.
Doyley @ 5586
If you are confusing Stephen Smith with Dick Adams, I suggest a high priority visit to an optometrist.
I was commenting on what Dick Adams said.
yes stirers need replacing, , they should be told,
don’t bother arguing with be used, he is open to nothing
She is in Toowoomba or thereabouts. That’s about 500 km from Roma and more from Mitchell and Charleville. There have been no floods on the Darling Downs this time round.
victoria
OPT is just outside Toowoomba, I think, at the edge of the scarpment.
If anyone has any spare Buscopan, could they stick it up TO’s arse.
That should be escarpment. Just trying to type and eat an eclair at the same time!
bemused @5591.
My mistake.
Replace Smith with Adams but the rest of my post stands.
“Now is not the time to replace the leader.”
Perhaps you missed that bit in your haste to post?
Thanks Its time and lizzie
let’s leave bemused, to be use
its a waste of time
”he always has the last say.
either change the subject or go for a walk
doyley ‘is spot on as usual
no wonder a couple of party members don’t know whether they are arthur or Martha
be used, please. take dick adams sentance. and follow. his good guidence and example
i
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