Three new poll results from Roy Morgan, if you please. Despite its modest sample of 543 and high margin of error of over 4 per cent, the phone poll conducted over the past two nights is the most interesting, both for its currency and for the fact that phone polling has a clearly superior track record to Morgan’s Labor-biased face-to-face polls. Averaging Morgan’s phone poll results back to May gives almost the exact same result as for Newspoll, although the smaller samples mean Morgan has been more erratic from poll to poll.
The latest result is within the margins of recent results from other pollsters, although slightly at the Coalition end of the scale: their two-party lead is 55-45 compared with most others’ 54-46, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 46.5 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. The phone poll does not replicate the issue I keep going on about of Morgan’s face-to-face polling producing wildly different results according to whether preferences are distributed as per the result of the last election or according to respondents’ stated intentions. It instead gives us 55-45 on respondent-allocated and 55.5-44.5 on previous-election, and thus chimes with this week’s Nielsen which in fact had Labor’s share of preferences slightly higher than at the election.
Speaking of which, Morgan has published not one but two sets of face-to-face figures. Normally Morgan either publishes results from its regular weekend polling the following Friday (or occasionally Thursday), but sometimes it holds off for a week and publishes a result a combined result from two weekends. This time they have held off for a week and published separate results for each weekend. The earlier poll, conducted on January 28/29 (Australia Day having been the preceding Thursday), was remarkably positive for Labor: not only did they maintain their lead on the previous-election (51-49) method from the result published a fortnight ago, they also opened a lead on the respondent-allocated measure (50.5-49.5), which for once looked similar to the previous election result. The primary votes were 39.5 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens.
However, the polling on February 4/5 told a somewhat different story, with the Coalition up four points to 45.5 per cent, Labor down one to 38.5 per cent and the Greens down half to 9.5 per cent. This panned out to a 53.5-46.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on previous election. The polls individually had a sample of 1000 and theoretically a margin of error of around 3 per cent. However, the more telling point is how much Morgan face-to-face results continue to differ from other series which have consistently proved nearer the mark. In 2011, the average primary vote for Labor in Morgan was 35.9 per cent, compared with 34.1 per cent for Essential Research, 30.7 per cent for Newspoll and 29.5 per cent for Nielsen. The gap between Essential and the latter two is partly accounted for by Essential having a consistently lower result for the Greens: on two-party preferred, Essential and Newspoll were fairly similar.
For a look at the bigger polling picture, Possum surveys a landscape of flat calm 54-46 polling going back to November.
UPDATE (13/2): Another week, another 54-46 Essential Research result. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor is back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval finds both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but Gillard has nonetheless made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expect her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent. A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There’s also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
We also had a teaser last night from Newspoll, which had Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
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The US economy…re Briefly’s comment_
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The recent article by Craig Paul Roberts’,,,a former Asst-Treasurer and sometime editor of the Wall Street Journal,,,re the current state of the US economy is far less optimistic. he saya that the figures recently released are… because if their slant … valueless…and tha USA is now in a very bad way …almost like the 1930ies with no recovery in sight
\http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/02/06/do-the-job-numbers-really-add-up/
An interesting article
Re US economy
__________Counterpunch article
http://www.counterpunch.org
http://www.counterpunch.org/
deblonay, there are still plenty of sceptics around when it comes to the US economy. I read the data and the comments too. There certainly is a very strong parallel between the recent US experience and the 1930′s. It is really not too strong to say we have been observing a depression in parts of the US and parts of Europe. The situation in the UK is actually worse now than it was in the 1930′s.
I don’t think recovery is a foregone conclusion in the US at all. But the economy is improving enough to make me think it is going to continue. Manufacturing remains on an expansionary track as does industrial production in general. Employment growth has been stronger and has been spread across the whole economy. Hours worked have been growing. Temporary hires have been growing at the same time as full-time hires.
Hourly wages have improved about enough to keep pace with inflation. As the number of people in work improves and the hours worked increase, aggregate household disposable income is growing. This means that households can restore their savings without cutting into consumption, and in some months will be able to both save more and consume more. This is more like the post-war growth pattern than the post-Reagan pattern, which is what we are used to seeing.
As well, house construction, which is at 50-year lows, is slowly starting to pick up while commercial construction has been quite good in general. Of course, construction jobs are high-paying and construction projects generate a lot of non-construction jobs. Coincidentally, demand for mortgage finance has been improving, though from a very low base and mostly for refinancing rather than for new purchases. But this is still positive and will be adding to domestic demand for the first time since 2006.
So the makings of a long expansionary phase are there – improving jobs, improving household incomes, improving savings, improving domestic demand, growing tax receipts, low inflation, low interest rates, improving exports, increased labour-force participation.
This is occurring without a big expansion in household debts, so it will be slower than anyone would like, but hopefully it will be based on firmer ground and will be more durable. Certainly, for all the millions of unemployed and under-employed workers in the US, we have to hope this process gains more grunt as time goes on; that it accelerates and endures.
To achieve economic stability in the US, they need to restore fiscal stability. Hopefully, a re-elected Obama will have enough political muscle to address the problems of inequality and inadequate revenue. If he can do this, he will be remembered as the best President since Eisenhower, who fixed the US economy and the US budget at the same time.
morning all – afr wakes up to abbott at last
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/abbott_fails_the_fiscal_test_WHnD0th4o1xeyTDw0vY2QL
Farq, i still smell fart, i really need Gussie’s helium to get rid of that stinky smell.
It looks like i was too quick:
Abbott fails the fiscal test – http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/abbott_fails_the_fiscal_test_WHnD0th4o1xeyTDw0vY2QL
Joe Hockey fumbles attack on Wayne Swan’s tax ‘black hole’ – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/joe-hockey-fumbles-attack-on-wayne-swans-tax-black-hole/story-fn59niix-1226267239308
All i need is a trifecta from Robb.
i am getting very depressed.
Abbott’s Blackhole, it’s not $70B, it’s $75B – Axing $27B Carbon Tax & $11B Mining Tax, $37B Last Election Promises –
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3291711.htm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Close
And who can forget this image of Abbott, Hockey & Robb in full flight managing our $1T plus economy – http://t.co/mZhcoC8k … #auspol
Evan2GB has lost his self respect by calling PM Gillard publicly on Fakebook as that “Red Hair Bitch”.
If he has no respect for himself, why should i have respect for and of him. He is a fair game as far as i am concerned.
RE Abbott
I have noticed a few little articles, just here and there
we are being softened uo for a change In. leadership.
of. the LOTO..I realize. much I say is ever, taken in,
but. that’s. what. I feel,
my say, you just keep on feeling that Abbott will be replaced soon.
I recomend. a great story. in global mail. re the speaker
Not so sure about the AFR editorial. It’s unsigned, presented as the “voice of the paper”. The voice of the AFR is editor Michael Stutchbury, and he never gives Labor an even break.
It starts out by agreeing with Hockey that we should be running a surplus now.
There’s no excuse not to, right? That is, if we forget the GFC, which the AFR seems to have, citing favourable terms of trade as the only criterion necessary for a surplus. Maybe we should have been running a surplus for the past few years – only if we can work out how to forget about the GFC.
This kind of dishonesty smells of pure Liberal hackery, a Stutchbury special.
Oh, here’s something new:
ps can some one let us know what radio breakfas. national do with
407
Grattan lets us in on the secret .
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-waiting-game-goes-on-20120209-1rwhc.html#ixzz1lvAuiyTD
I thought that Newspoll had released their latest polling early – not the case
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-10/rabbit-numbers-soar-to-pre-calicivirus-levels/3821278
Did the PM stand on her shoe on something, she really is a bitch when it comes to the PM.
You got to give Murdock one point, his tweet indicated he realises it is time to find someone else to blame for the absolutely poor performance for the Canberra press Gallery.
Poor Michelle doesn’t seem to realise she is now part a joke that hasn’t started the whole world crying.
Why do SMH readers get Grattan but Age readers don’t get Lenore Taylor? Or is the SMH piece only online?
fredn
Whether or not there is any truth in the leadership wranglings. Reporting it breathlessly day after day is getting ridiculous. We get it. Rudd wants to be PM again. Will he? Who knows. I just hope not
Morning all.
I agree with BB about the AFR editorial. It’s written more in lament than criticism.
How dare this government consider a family on250,000 to be wealthy!
A normal family with a husband a barrister and his wife owning a flower shop would be close to that and I am sure none of us would consider them to be exceptional
Good morning all,
Bushfire Bill,
re the AFR piece, I came up with the same conclusion as you did when I read it and it stinks of Stutchbury.
I missed seeing Roy get booted. What does Mike Kelly mean when he calls it a stunt?
They are flat out finding $70b needed to meet their spending commitments. Of course they wouldn’t overturn the means test!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/coalition-might-not-overturn-health-rebate-20120210-1s89a.html
Victoria@420,
So Abbott confirms his policy is to ride on Labor’s economic reform coattails once they’ve done the heavy lifting? *cough* Costello *cough*
The PM was emphatic to Uhlmann that there would be a budget surplus. It serms the govt have factored in some guaranteed revenue
Jaeger
In order for the coalition to ride on the coattalls of the govt, they have to retain all the govt initiatives. Carbon price, MRRT, NBN, etc
TH
It was a stunt. The PM was talking about the commitment to surplus, and Roy stood up and asked “when was the last time Labor delivered a surplus”. No way Roy took the initative. He was put up to it. Obvious to the extreme. It was actually quite rude. Roy looked like a pompous fool
A puff piece on Wyatt Roy.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/face-in-aspiring-crowd-has-time-on-side-in-insular-world-20120209-1rxah.html
It was a stunt because he rose on a point of order and asked a question, which isn’t a point of order. He was subsequently booted out and then took to twitter claiming to have been silenced.
Thinking about OPT. Hope she is okay. Wanted to know her thoughts on the Qld election. Can Labor still win?
La Stupenda making excuses again:
That’s right a little detail like our economy being the envy of the world, with an unprecedented AAA rating, and all the rest of the BISONS won’t save Gillard.
They’re only “off the (economic) pace” a little, a mere $70 billion they can’t agree on, plus a bragged about surplus quietly buried. No biggy.
The Coalition is to be given as much slack as it needs from Old Coke Bottles. Need a promise to return to surplus explained away and then forgotten? Michelle’s your go-to gal.
Besides, Ruddstoration is MUCH more important than any of these quibbles.
“At some point”? Whatever happened to “before the Queensland election”?
And sure, the Libs DO have their own leadership problems…
But they’re minor. If only that “internal politics” stumbling block was out of the way, Turnbull and Sinodinis could come in and sort things out.
Of course there’d be no other implications, like the Liberal leadership to worry about. Mal and Arthur would just work in with the existing team (who would, presumably) go quietly to other portfolios and work for the good of the party.
None of this would in any way reflect on Abbott, who doesn’t have to explain anything until after he (inevitably) wins the election, having despatched Rudd, the Gillard then Rudd again.
$70 billion gone missing? Petty cash.
No surplus? Well, that’s prudent.
Wrong people at the top? Oh, that’s just internal politics. They’ll sort it out, or not… doesn’t really matter.
In La Stupenda World it’s all so easy. She must wonder why no-one else sees it as clearly as she does.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-waiting-game-goes-on-20120209-1rwhc.html#ixzz1lvDASKM5
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Close
Ruddstoration is like Nessie. Grattan now said it’s mid year – http://t.co/mDqSF82B … Where is before Xmas, this week, qld elec, May budget?
8:36 AM – 10 Feb 12 via web · Details
BB
Of course no one sees as clearly as Grattan. She has old coke bottles to help her!!
Victoria,
He’s of the same calibre as Evan – immature with a long long way to go before he grows up. I’ll bet my last dollar that young Roy is pretty useless at representing his electorate.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_dials_up_billion_telco_deal_c0iKwMFjWWWLhcYt5BJRJM
more in the article, surplus is in the bag
Leroy
Yes that does explain why the PM was so sure of a surplus.
I’m disappointed in Wyatt, he could’ve made such a funny opening speech. Something along the lines of “I must be brief, as I have just become an MP right in the middle of my exams”
But being funny is something beyond the capability of young libs. It’s better for them to just stick to what they’re good at – bellowing mantra and spamming news comments.
A very late good morning to Dawn Patrollers. I have had to spend 90 minutes reviewing and sub-editing a big report.
From the US – is there any end to this?
http://www.americablog.com/2012/02/former-ny-cardinal-retracts-apology-for.html
And now Abbott is on talking platitudes to the Master Builders Association.
I’ve got a fantastic outdoor mat made from recycled coke bottles – Grattan may yet be useful
Of course, “coke bottle” glasses are prescribed for nearsightedness. Grattan’s are so thick that she clearly can’t see past her nose without them.
Luckily her nose is up Abbott’s bum, so that’s not a real problem.
janice2/BB
Enjoying a good chuckle!
Abbott speech to the MBA on IR being shown now.
He is barely coherent, and does that funny hand thing when he speaks. Why people bang on about the way Gillard talks is beyond me. Abbott is much worse.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/12859657/stricken-labor-must-try-fresh-tack-says-hawke/
Hewson now on ABC 24, running a convoluted line about how when Rudd doesn’t win against Gillard she’ll be so weakened that Crean, or Shorten, or Smith will take over, with Turnbull making his move against Abbott, but only if the red dog comes along and eats the birthday cake while Sinodinis isn’t watching…
… which is EXACTLY why Hewson crashed and burned in 1993.
Too many details, John.
“I missed seeing Roy get booted. What does Mike Kelly mean when he calls it a stunt?”
Do all ‘boys from Brazil’ have identical personalities? Maybe a Roy#2 turned up to Parliament yesterday.
The 3 stooges of Coalition economic policy were there but there is also a Shemp
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