tip off

Port Adelaide and Ramsay by-elections live

PORT ADELAIDE

# % Swing 2PP (proj.)
Lawrie (IND LIB) 2429 15.1% -11.2%
Thomas (IND) 238 1.5%
Briton (IND) 255 1.6%
Pistor (DLP) 124 0.8%
Carlin (ONE) 200 1.2%
Close (ALP) 6882 42.8% -7.4% 52.4%
McArthur (GRN) 934 5.8% -0.3%
Johanson (IND) 3904 24.3% 47.6%
Humble (LDP) 1099 6.8%
TOTAL 16065
Booths counted 11 out of 11
Votes counted 63.6% of enrolled voters

10.16pm. All 2PP results are now in, so the table is finalised by the night. Declaration votes are still to come, but these can be relied upon to lean in the favour of incumbent major political parties.

9.23pm. Taperoo primary votes added. Only the last two booths’ two-party counts remain outstanding.

8.56pm. Mawson Lakes booth primary vote result added.

8.47pm. The 2CP result from Ottoway has truly broken the back of Johanson’s challenge to Labor, splitting 1110-595 against him. Labor’s raw lead is now 6.1 per cent. Mawson Lakes and Taperoo still yet to report.

8.20pm. Ottoway has reported on the primary vote and Parafield Gardens on 2CP: both strong results for Labor. The raw 2CP and my projection are now in accord: Labor ahead by 4.2 per cent.

8.09pm. Parafield Gardens Central has reported on 2CP which has brought the raw figure almost in line with my projection, which is always gratifying. I think Labor are home and hosed now.

8.05pm. And sure enough, Parafield Gardens North-West has reported 2CP and put Labor in a 1.8 per cent lead on the raw 2CP total, while they continue to edge up on my projection. Barring late surprises, I think they can probably start breathing a little easier now.

8.01pm. We’ve got five booths that have reported 2CP and eight that have reported the primary vote. The three which have done the latter but not the former are all from Parafield Gardens, and Labor’s primary vote in the booths in question is 48.5 per cent compared with 40.9 per cent for the others – which mostly explains why my projection is rosier for Labor than the raw figures.

7.55pm. The large Parafield Gardens Central booth has given Labor a boost, such that Johanson’s raw 2CP lead is now just 0.1 per cent. The smaller Taperoo East has reported on both primary and 2CP. My own projection is remaining fairly steady, which is what it’s designed to do.

7.50pm. North Haven booth has simultaneously reported primary and 2CP and it’s a very strong result for Johanson, whose share of preferences has also increased to 72.6 per cent. On the raw 2CP count from four booths, he has a 1.3 per cent lead, although my projection has Labor 2.7 per cent ahead.

7.47pm. Parafield Gardens North-West booth reports and it’s the weakest yet for Johnason, slightly pushing out my projected Labor lead on 2CP.

7.36pm. A third booth has reported 2CP. The raw figures from the three booths with 2CP have Johanson with his nose in front 50.6-49.4, but my projection factors in that these were below average booths for Labor in 2010.

7.34pm. Sorry, corrected an error in my calculations – Johanson is getting 69.8 per cent of preferences, and I’ve now got Labor back in front.

7.32pm. The Port Adelaide booth has reported its primary votes and, better yet, two booths have reported 2CP counts – and Johanson is getting 77 per cent of preferences rather than the 66 per cent I was projected. That puts him in the lead on my projection, and he also has his nose in front on the raw count from those two booths.

7.27pm. Meanwhile in Ramsay, five of nine booths have reported and Labor’s primary vote remains a little over 50 per cent.

7.24pm. Swings recorded in the table above are booth-matched. I’ve included one for Lawrie who was the Liberal candidate in 2010. At present, Labor’s 2PP is calculated by adding the booth-matched swing to their total primary vote result from 2010 and giving them one third of the preferences. If their preference share proves significantly lower than that, they’re in big trouble.

7.23pm. Port Adelaide booth now added; my projection now has Labor a little further ahead, but with Labor below 40 per cent and Johanson pushing 30 per cent, they’d be feeling very nervous.

7.21pm. With a second booth added (Largs North-West to go with the earlier Largs North-East) I now have Labor sneaking in front, but until we start getting booths reporting their two-candidate preferred counts, this will continue to be off an arbitrary preference split.

7.17pm. I’ve just published my table and it projects Gary Johanson as being in the lead, but at this stage this comes from a completely arbitrary 66-34 preference guess, so please don’t take it as a prediction.

7.14pm. The first booth from Port Adelaide is an intriguingly strong result for Gary Johanson on 29.0 per cent, with Labor on 41.0 per cent. If this keeps up, it might well be close.

7.01pm. I note that ECSA have nominated Gary Johanson in Port Adelaide and Ruth Beach of the Greens in Ramsay as their candidates for the notional two-candidate preferred count. Though for what it’s worth, the weekend’s Advertiser poll had independent Liberal Sue Lawrie outpolling Johanson.

6.57pm. One booth in from Ramsay and the Labor vote is at 53.2 per cent. The second placed candidate is independent and occasional PB commenter Mark Aldridge on 17.4 per cent. So no boilover there clearly. I will only be doing my usual results table and swing calculation for Port Adelaide.

6.05pm. Polls have closed in South Australia’s Port Adelaide and Ramsay by-elections. Results should start coming in in about an hour, maybe a little sooner.

41
  • 1
    Scrutineer
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 7:37 pm | Permalink

    LDP types might get excited, in with a chance of coming second in Ramsey on that first booth.

    Don’t what the HTV’s flow is like. Are they in with a chance to get their first ever second place? I don’t think they have done that before.

  • 2
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

    Regardless of how close it is on the night (pardon the pun) the ALP will romp home off the back of pre-poll and postals.

    Nothing to see here, is my prediction.

    (famous last words) …

  • 3
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    Is the ABC site correct in noting a 28.2% informal vote???

    That seems extraordinary. Surely it’s a typo?

  • 4
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    In Ramsay, I mean.

    In Port Adelaide it is 5.8%, which is high enough in my opinion.

  • 5
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink

    Informal is 5.8 per cent in Port Adelaide and 9.2 per cent in Ramsay – high, but not that high.

  • 6
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 8:01 pm | Permalink

    Okay; just looked at the results properly.

    It is clearly a typo, since the total number of votes given in no way equals the individual 1st prefs for all the candidates + informals.

    Whew! Having working at Ramsay in the past (and hopefully again in the future – Hi Zoe!), I would have thought the electorate was not quite that disengaged …

  • 7
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

    Finally the tally has been correct and it is showing an informal in Ramsay of 8.4%

  • 8
    Scrutineer
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

    Looks like LDP won’t get second in Ramsay. 5% behind Aldridge with 33% counted is probably too far.

    Had a look at the HTV’s, some help to LDP. ONP and FREE placed LDP above Aldridge. Grace put Aldridge above LDP. Greens had no HTV, their prefs will scatter.

  • 9
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    I expect Mawson Lakes to be a good booth for Johanson. Parafield Gardens should get Close over the line though.

  • 10
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    She’s back in the lead now, so I suspect his best booth(s) are already in.

    Either way (and like I said before), I expect her to romp home on pre-poll and postals.

  • 11
    Leadership
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    I think we are done in Port Adelaide now

  • 12
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    And it wouldn’t be a SA election without a HTV complaint.

    ACCUSATIONS of dirty tricks campaigning have been levelled at the Liberal Democratic Party in the Port Adelaide electorate during today's by-election.

    The party's how-to-vote card being distributed at polling booths has raised the ire of Liberal Party member and independent candidate Sue Lawrie, who complains the lettering is misleading voters.

    Written in blue in large print on the card is "HOW TO VOTE LIBERAL" and in much smaller print underneath is "Democratic Party".

  • 13
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    So the Reds are outpolling the DLP.

  • 14
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    EVERYONE pretty much out-polls the DLP.

    It always makes me laugh when the occasional enthusiastic member lobs into this site and does the “WE’RE COMING BACK!!” schtick.

    Seriously LOL :D

  • 15
    Leadership
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    ECSA website got Labor on 56.1 to 43.9

  • 16
    oyster
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    lawrie cannot complain, advertised herself as independent liberal and on the ballot paper she was independent blue right, no mention of being liberal.

  • 17
    Stephen Luntz
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    Diogenens, I think that can be taken as an admission by the LDP that they were chasing votes of people who were looking to vote Liberal and got confused, rather than actually seeking votes for their policies. Won’t stop them turning up here and on other sites crowing about how the voters of Ramsay, and to a lesser extent Port Adelaide, are endorsing their policies.

  • 18
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Sunday Mail poll last week was pretty well spot on with Close’s vote but off beam with some of the others. Still, things probably changed during the week.

  • 19
    Scrutineer
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    LDP is the Liberal Party stunt double for falls it doesn’t want to take itself ?

  • 20
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    What the hell is the LDP? Why do they exist?

  • 21
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    1. Danny Lewis might laugh at the DLP but it has elected members to the Senate and the Victorian Legislative Council in recent years.

    2. Not sure why the LDP (or for that matter the DLP) exists but it did get enough votes in the last fed election for a potful of cash.

    3. Less than two-thirds voted in Port Adelaide.

  • 22
    Wakefield
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Final 2 candidate vote to Close 53.2 for votes counted today – expect to go up a bit with prepoll, postals – less than 70% counted to date and expect to get to well over 80 with votes still to be counted.

    Still not a great result for Labor – swing at last election was massive and now added another c8% to Johanson. Still a win is a win. The Libs also got it generally right – their best hope was Johanson and their vters generally got the message despite Laurie running a pretty solid campaign. Maybe part of the strategy to get the hard core Libs out to vote?

  • 23
    Stephen Luntz
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Odd comparison between the LDP vote in the two seats. In Ramsay it was fairly consistent, ranging from 9% to 15% with most near the middle. However, in Port Adelaide the majority of booths had them below 4%, but they were on 12.5% at Mawson Lakes, and a few other high ones. I wonder whether they only had people on a few booths, indicating that the deceptive HTVs were actually quite effective.

  • 24
    Wakefield
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    23. Maybe more high income cocaine sniffers and self employed contractors at Mawson Lakes would approve of LDP right wing libertarianism?

  • 25
    Outsider
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    Agree with Wakefield that a win’s a win, but not so sure about the Libs strategy. I suspect a near win for Johanson will do Redmond more harm than good within her own party. A lot of”what if” questions will be in the minds of a lot of Libs tonight. With a 4% spike in the informals, how many of those might have been homeless Lib voters? And with a projected 52/48 final 2PP, who knows what might have happened with a well run Lib campaign? Sure, the tactical decision not to stand a Lib candidate gave Johanson clear air, but…. I reckon it leaves Redmond looking like a goose. That said, Weatherill will have mixed feelings tonight – relieved about the Labor win, but still disappointed. I tip Redmond will be gone within 3 months, and the decision not to contest Port Adelaide could be the catalyst.

  • 26
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Greens 5.8 and 7.3%. No appeal to working-class voters, full stop.

  • 27
    Wakefield
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Outsider – I think the hard core Libs in Ramsay would be even more cranky – they were left with no-one to vote for except Mark Aldridge (ex One Nation) or LDP crazies.

    Family First must be really broke or asleep not to have run in Ramsay.

  • 28
    castle
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Labor 1st indie 2nd lib 3rd

    I’m sure we will see insiders discussing the implications for the LNP and does this mean the end .

  • 29
    Wakefield
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    William – thanks for your efforts again. Much appreciated. Also for Antony on the ABC for his commentary (as I don’t think I can send a direct thankyou tonight).

    Psephos at 26. Are you more upset at working class voters supporting Liberals or ex-Liberals?

  • 30
    Posted Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    I’m not upset at all.

  • 31
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Sunday, February 12, 2012 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    Weatherill just survived but very poor result on his home turf. Johanson did well and probably would have got home but for his Liberal baggage. Bad for everyone else.

  • 32
    Scott
    Posted Sunday, February 12, 2012 at 8:42 am | Permalink

    @Wakefield

    For some weird reason Family First do not context by-elections.

    End of the day the Government still won both seats. By-elections can be funny things and with two Independents running anything could have happened.

  • 33
    Scott
    Posted Sunday, February 12, 2012 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Contest..I meant to say contest lol :)

  • 34
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    Four things labor can ponder with some relief from a moderately disappointing evening:

    1) They have two new youngish female members

    2) An intact parliamentary majority

    3) Much smaller swings than their NSW friends

    4) If Foley had quit and Rann stayed as premier, Gary Johannson would now be the
    member for Port Adelaide.

  • 35
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    On another point … it is exactly 10 years ago today that Peter Lewis announced he would be supporting the formation of a Rann Labor government. When you look at it from that perspective, the by-election swings were hardly disastrous for a 10 year old government.

  • 36
    Independently Thinking
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    I’ve kept my powder dry until the postals came in for the Port Adelaide by-election.

    In every contest there are winners and losers, and Port Adelaide by-election had both too. Starting from the bottom, so to speak, with the microparties and also rans:

    Ind Ban Live Animal Exports, DLP, One Nation, Ind Communist, Liberal Democratic Party:
    The first four of the above all lost their deposits & failed to gain anything near the vote they hoped for (or telling their supporters).
    The Liberal Democratic Party on the other hand despite the controversy over their how to vote cards (they handed out two on the day BTW, one advocating the end of speed cameras, one saying ‘True Liberals mean less tax’) gained 7%. This is a victory to them any way you look at it. The LDP got their highest vote at Mawson Lakes where their state president handed out in between conducting weddings, and where they also failed to hand out their “Liberal” how to vote card. Maybe the people of Mawson Lakes don;t like speed cameras?

    Greens, despite the hype, and their preference deal with Labor, bombed to the tune of less than 6%. Even if you add in the vote of the ex-Green wanting to ban live animal exports, it is still a miserable total of just over 7% in a seat where they invested heavily. Clearly, they have lost their way and need to rethink whether they’re watermelons or gooseberries (green and furry on the outside, mushy on the inside). As usual with the Greens, they tend to blame everyone else but themselves and the fact that the vast majority of the population find them useless. Their preference deal with Labor was supported by no one but their own fanatics and Labor apologists.

    Independent Sue Lawrie was being spruiked by the conservative Sunday Mail the week before as the big winner on 23% in their poll but is looking to have finished with 15%. She ran a big budget campaign based on being the claytons Liberal, and did it well, and was publicly saying she’d get 24% so her showing was embarrassing. Rumoured locally to be massively bankrolled by Liberal Party.

    Independent for You, Gary Johanson, surprised most but still, failed to win. His margin will probably be around 4% but it is unlikely he will bother Labor again electorally, other than to annoy them as Mayor. No doubt the ALP will try to either knock him off as Mayor next time or put up their own puppet. I suspect they will lose.

    Dr Susan Close, ALP MP. Won the seat, but lost the PR war. Labor took a beating and all the ALP apologists’ ranting won’t change that. Remember that the government thanks to Kevin Foley had suffered a massive swing already and the 2CP vote is now below State Bank election levels. This was a kick in the pants well and truly. How Labor and Close responds will tell of their mettle, but the arrogance I read around blogs and responses online indicate to me that the Labor faithful haven’t learnt the lesson still.

    The Liberals. Hopeless. Worst possible result. If Labor had won easily, would have justified hands off approach. If Johanson had won, the Liberals could have ridden the ALP failure wave. As Lawrie had no hope of winning, any help they gave her was wasted. If they had run a candidate and run dead to help Johanson, they would have looked stupid, but of course knew a real Liberal had little chance of succeeding as their brand in SA is so devoid of support in Labor heartland. As it is, the first likely casualty of the by-election will be Redmond. How ironic.

    Sunday Mail: their poll a week before the election was way out. They refuse to reveal their methodology and it is the latest in a long list of dodgy polls of theirs. Even though they got the eventual ALP primary vote near enough, they were wildly innaccurate on Greens (12%), Sue Lawrie (23%) and Johanson (14%). Their errant poll may well have cost Johanson some momentum and thus the seat.

    To summarise:

    Losers: Liberals, One Nation, DLP, Greens, Johanson, ALP, Sue Lawrie, Communists, Sunday Mail.

    Winners: Johanson, ALP, Liberal Democratic Party.

  • 37
    Wakefield
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    IT 36. don’t think LDP should get excited about their vote – mostly from confusion and misplaced generosity I should think.

    And on the results you would have to say if Laurie or someone was official Lib candidate and finished ahead of Johanson the result would have been better for ALP because a higher % of Johanson votes would have gone back to ALP than Laurie even allowing for lower informal – see comments also from Antony Green on this.

    Did anyone scutineer a count on the % of Johanson votes going to Close ahead of Laurie?

  • 38
    Independently Thinking
    Posted Wednesday, February 15, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    Wakefield, yes, one Labor scrutineer I know of did but I don’t know what the results were as they wouldn’t tell me. Sykesie, help please.

    I disagree on the LDP – they didn’t get 12.5% in Mawson Lakes on confusion. They seem to be developing a following, albeit small. Of course, let’s see how they go in a general election, but don’t be surprised if they win back their deposits in some seats and create a nuisance.

  • 39
    Wakefield
    Posted Friday, February 17, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    IT 38 Appreciate some details when available.

  • 40
    Posted Saturday, February 18, 2012 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

    My (not anticipated) take on the results:

    Firstly, the easy race – Ramsay.

    Good result for Labor, no matter how you look at it. However, with no really notable competition (sorry Aldridge but you are not high profile enough) nobody expected a result other than an easy Labor win. While I agree with the Liberals’ decision to not contest Port Adelaide, for strategic reasons, they should’ve at least fielded someone in Ramsay. While there was no conceivable way they could win, being a by-election, the 2PP could’ve been much closer vs the Liberal party, and given them (and the embattled Redmond) talking points about how they “are making inroads into Labor’s heartland.) The fact they had no candidate in the end just made them look timid and, as Jay Weatherill put it, the “real losers of the night”.

    As for Port Adelaide, a slightly less enjoyable result for Labor but, nonetheless, still comfortable enough to be happy. I had said, prior to the election, that being a by-election in a government seat with a viable independent, Labor would need to win it by at least 52-48 2CP in order to not hit the alarm bells. By-elections always swing against the government party, especially when there’s a strong independent. This is probably because it just becomes a local race and people have the opportunity to express protest against the government of the day, without electing a new government. When the alternative is an independent, it becomes easier.

    Judging by Johanson’s rhetoric straight after the election, he sounded like a Liberal. So, Labor dodged a bullet by avoiding having a Liberal sympathising independent entrenched in one of their safe seats.

    All in all, it’s the result Labor wanted. Obviously they’d have preferred a greater margin but it will do and the swings were nowhere near where they had been in recent interstate by-elections. They should be humbled by Port Adelaide’s result but, privately, they can be reassured that they’re still in an okay position with the electorate.

  • 41
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, February 18, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

    Final votes counted today. Close finished with 52.9% 2PP.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...