Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Womble
Your kidding
Mr smith, supports julia
Julia did nothing wrong , only if u want go along with msm
Mr smith is a bit more clever than than u give him credit forn
And i would of thought uncould think things through to the logic conclusion of
New election gone along with all your dreams
by my say on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Dear Environment and Communications Committee:
There being no more substantive or legitimate questions from the participating Senators, can you please send Barnaby in for genuine entertainment value.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Bolt and them going through the same old names again, and again, and again
by my say on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:44 pm
It sounds fine on paper except thinking about it a bit more the media will still be focussed on if Rudd is the better option, and a lot of the public will still be with Rudd in comparison to what may to them a near anonymous Smith.
Though Smith will most certainly improve Labor’s credibility and polls in comparison to a Gillard. Though they would be in danger of burning him.
The best option would have to be Rudd. It brings back legitimacy and trust to the role and a majority of the public believe he should be PM in any case, and 49% of Labor voters to boot. And it totally removes the issue of leadership legitimacy from the agenda.
Though I know some here would rather Labor lose to Abbott than have Rudd replace Gillard.
This is the result of the faceless mongrels who think they own democracy arbitrarily replacing a PM for zero reason at all, except an after the fact they didn’t like his personality. Impatient and greedy, and plotting it a long long way out.
It is a little bit amusing, but bit by bit PBs are going to come to the understanding that for Labor there is only one alternative, though this may take a number of months to sink in.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Sophie is speaking.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Conroy is leaving no stone unturned in nailing the Coalition on their telecommunications “policy”.
And he’s stinging.
by BK on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Womble #1135, are you familiar with the expression “concern troll”? Just wondering.
by Marrickville Mauler on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Doogie is well onto Sen MacDonald’s obfuscations, and insists the Minister be heard.
Conroy is exposing MacDonald’s lack of subject knowledge. I repeat: this is going nowhere, so the opps could do worse than send in
Barnabythe clowns.by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Hi Dr John re 1062
Talking point : How possibly can Labor improve/influence in the polling public mind, whoever is leading Labor, and win the 2013 Federal election given the consistent and increasing biased media to an uninformed audience.
I basically agree with quite a few here (despite other disagreements) that the best thing is just to grit collective teeth and persevere. The program remains pretty well what was presented in 2007 when Labor won despite some significant media opposition. The leadership issue has been done over and over, but in the end only caucus can resolve it; I am suspicious of hoping for a “big bang’ solution – that in my view is what was hoped for in June 2010 – so I think Labor supporters outside should just concentrate on the positives of the program and work to persuade where they can. One of my brothers was violently anti labor last year but patiently I’ve now got him to admit the government has kept Australia much better than overseas.
F
by Fil R on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:47 pm
BK is not watching!
by BK on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:48 pm
Sen MacDonald upon failing to garner any respect for his nonsense: this is an abuse Mr Chairman.
I love estimates!
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Would someone please explain how elected members of Parliament can be faceless? There are only photos of the back of their heads I suppose?
by Scarpat on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Gillard is being treated no different than any other Labor PM. Rudd suffered the same unfairness, though he was much better at dealing with it…and if insiders were not determined to leak against him, denigrate in order to replace him we would all be in a different place right now. Media unfairness goes with the job.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Problem is that no matter how ridiculous, the size of the lie, the backflip etc..by Rabbott, it is ignored.
Then we swing to the opposite extreme and every movement, word & glance of the PM is dissected to ridiculous lengths.
Anyhows it ain’t going to change so the government will have to find a way around it.
by Dee on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Indeed, markjs, and if people have the patience to watch this video that someone has thoughtfully compiled, Abbott is clearly exposed even lying about what he said the day before. It is also good because it has footage of the original question asked by the female ABC journalist that 7.30 selectively deleted.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28idYGn4SEM
by joe2 on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:51 pm
MacDonald now saying the committee under Doogie’s chairmanship is a farce.
High drama, and Apac2 breaks away from the ensuing fracas.
Not fair!
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:51 pm
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:51 pm
Sen MacDonald has just thrown the skirt over his head!
by BK on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:51 pm
Ah! We have a womble and TP double act tonight, I see.
Honestly, you guys are wasted here! But I hear the ABC is looking for a new comedy duo to replace Uhlmann and Sales.
by Oscar on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:51 pm
Rishane: yeah, actually that was kinda my point – I may have made it rather badly.
Abbott fucks up. All the journos go into spasms and report it straight – as a fuck up.
Without fail, the meme changes (usually within 24-48 hours) and suddenly the LOTO’s fuck-up is suddenly SOMEONE ELSE’S FAULT … usually the government’s (or the Prime Minister’s, in particular).
No prizes for guessing that an order has come down from on high that “yes, you’ve had a laugh at the LOTO, now let’s get stuck into the government again”.
This appalling media bias would be worthy of a good Joe Orton farce if it didn’t have such serious ramifications …
by Danny Lewis on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:51 pm
BK – what are you saying, the member for Indi would never support anything involving taking unfair financial advantage … um, never mind
by Marrickville Mauler on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:52 pm
What? By being elected and the rejected by his fellow members as leader. Beazley handled rejection much better than Rudd.
by Scarpat on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:52 pm
MM
Precisely!
by BK on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:53 pm
BK,
If his name was McNamara, he could at least lead the band.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Doogie has called a private meeting of the committee for 15 minutes to explain correct protocol to Senator Macdonald – short suspension
th
by sprocket_ on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:54 pm
confessions
My family are hogging up foxtel. Would love tobe watching it, but they are blisfully disinterested
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Surely your feathers would have stood out?
Speaking of which, at the cab rank in downtown Warrnambool shopping centre two weeks there was a bit of commotion on the footpath near the shops. Turns out three geese were dressed up like Mother Goose, with blue-and-white dresses and matching bonnets. They were bunched up close together near a shop entrance.
A well-trained sheepdog was on hand to keep them fairly still and close together. A huge crowd of shoppers gathered to watch and take photos. A lady circulated with a book -probably a fundraising initiative. It won lots of admirers.
Not sure of animal welfare issues but it seemed like a great diversion at the time.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:56 pm
victoria:
Watch online.
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/
It’s Enviro and Communications Legislation Committee. Conroy and Quigley in great form.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Just here for a moment. I’m taking a sabbatical from politics in general.
Right now it’s far less useful to look at politics through the microscope than it is to use Panavision. The polls won’t move much – maybe narrow a bit by the end of the year, but the progress will be incremental. I’m expecting something like 48-52 by December.
The only important thing happening politically right now is policy getting through. Leadership talk – on either side of the political divide – is just a sideshow.
I’m getting fairly sick of talk about the ALP not being able to sell good policy. If anyone I know says to me that they won’t vote ALP for that reason, I am going to punch them in the nose. Policy is the only useful thing politics produces. Good policy is the only reason to vote for a party. Simple as that.
That’s all I have to contribute for the moment. Keep up the good work everyone, and remember – DISUNITY IS DEATH hahahahaha.
by Aguirre on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:56 pm
BK, Puff, Political Animal, Diogenes, Syksie, Grey, Shows On and any other Croweater I have neglected to mention:
WHEN ARE WE HAVING ANOTHER GET-TOGETHER???
The reason I ask is I have a child-free weekend coming up. If we could organise something for Saturday lunch (or evening), the timing would work very well for me.
I’m happy to do The Rising Sun again
by Danny Lewis on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:57 pm
TP they can’t go back to Rudd – it would look just plain crazy, Abbott would’ve beat him at the last election and would beat him at the next one
My Say – talking to average people who don’t take a lot of interest in politics the consensus is Julia can’t be trusted, that was confirmed again last night / today. Sure she might not have decided until the morning of the challenge to do so but she sure as hell thought about it a lot earlier than that.
Labor need a cleanskin leader to get back the people’s respect – Smith is that person BUT if he does get the gig, and I admit it’s a longshot – he has to sack all the spin doctors and do it on his own
The worst part of all this is that the worse it gets for Labor the closer we are to Abbott becoming PM and that would be a truly awful day for Australia
by womble on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Aguirre
Sabbitical is a good idea. I have thought about it too, but i keep sucked in!
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Oops keep getting
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 9:59 pm
What’s he wearing underneath?
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:01 pm
it was a dark and stormy night.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:01 pm
womble,
None of that public outpourings means a thing at election time.
People vote on personal self interest.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:02 pm
I love it! So Julia can’t be trusted because she thought about becoming PM. But Abbot can be trusted because … oh, no wait – that doesn’t work.
I’m sorry womble, I’m confused. Can you explain it again?
by Oscar on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Conroy: NBN turns the copper off, therefore your argument Senator [about takeup] is moot.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:02 pm
The Noalition is not winning in Estimates. If Doogie doesn’t take over then Conroy and Quigley do. It’s a shambles.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:03 pm
I hope Sen Bushby exited to fetch Barnaby.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:03 pm
confessions
I am on ipad. I would need to go on main computer. Reclining on sofa and watching tv. Too lazy to move
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:04 pm
And the beat goes on:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zblr8g3P7tw
There are more!
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:05 pm
GG
I believe all Labor wouldneed to win is for interest rates to be lower than they are now. That is as simple as it gets
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Conroy: “Yes. We are creating a wholesale monopoly.”
Whoosh!! There goes the wind out of their sails.
by BK on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Labor just needs to focus on economics. Particularly on cost of living and job security.
By focussing on this it can draw the COALition into the debate, and expose the Three Stooges of Australian Economic Management.
We all pretty much realise that Abbott is fragile, and keeping the focus on economics will increase his fragility.
And what a game changer that would be.
by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:07 pm
victoria:
Fair enough. You’re missing some great viewing.
Interestingly Conroy gives Quigley answrering license he never gave to Scott. The dynamic between Conroy and Quigley is obviously one of mutual respect.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Womble: don’t forget that Latham went into the 2004 election campaign with a huge lead, but he tanked during the campaign.
Not saying the same is going to happen with Abbott, but if the media inexplicably decide to change horses, he might be Lathamite toast.
by Danny Lewis on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:07 pm
GG if that’s the case and she keeps the job a hope she has a hell of a bankroll to play with so
Oscar – does she have any idea what her office does??? it’s the final straw, if there haven’t been enough already – she is meant to be running the show but she can’t even run her office
It’s sad, I had great hopes for Julia as PM, she was a sensational deputy – she hasn’t stepped up and now has too much baggage to do so. She obviously has sensational negotiation skills, they can better used in another role
Labor needs to find a leader and soon – it’s embarrassing
by womble on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:08 pm
confessions
I am enjoying the commentary from you and BK
by victoria on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Right, off to bed with a glass of red, a cup of coffee and the TV remote.
See you on the other side of the moon!
by Danny Lewis on Feb 14, 2012 at 10:10 pm