Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
We have enough nutters here.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Oh, and Saruman was knifed!
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Shorten gets the gig, the GG has to go – that’s not a good look straight away, why he has no chance
Maybe Julia should release the internal polling? that would put an end to the Rudd stuff, give her some clear air and maybe another few months to turn things around
by womble on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Ive been asking that for a few days fess. No responses as yet. Admittedly i have made the query in the context of any supposed Rudd “popularity factor” evaporating in in less than about a minute as he struggles to explain his re-ascension in terms of other that that he wus wobbed in the first place.
But yup, i’d like to know what people think he would do better in policy and implementation terms that Julia Gillard??
by imacca on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Abbott did say that the tent should be torn down. What the hell do you think ‘move on from that’ actually meant?
That = Tent Embassy.
Move on = what happens when the police tell you to get the flock out of the park.
The vile grub knew what he was saying and he is pretending he is not the boy who pulled the wings of the fly.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Hi Confessions re 1379
How will a Rudd MkII govt differ from the current administration?
Very little, just as Gillard Mk differs vary little from Rudd Mk1. That is why the endless Gillardista-Ruddista debate goes nowhere.
PS not a Gillardista, not a Ruddista, but a Labor member who supports the duly elected leader of the party, and doesn’t feel the need to denigrate to past/potential leaders – while retaining the right to criticise specific issues/actions
by Fil R on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:39 pm
What a stupid question.
Do I think public policy questions should be based on evidence and the advice of experts instead of mumbo jumbo nonsense that a minister may think makes sense but most people in Australia no longer believe anymore?
Well sure. Guilty as charged.
by ShowsOn on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Gary
I seriously believe that Rudd has far and away the best chance of winning an election of any other candidate. He may NOT win as he would be leading a rather muddled third term government but he has the media savvy, fighting spirit and campaigning skill to do so.
Assuming Gillard steps down – I do not think there will be a formal challenge, Rudd would be the ONLY one of the potentials with a real chance of winning. Smith is too bland and while he might stand a chance against Abbott I think that the Libs would swiftly switch leaders. Crean is a nice guy but would be seen as someone to save the furniture not an election winner. Shorten sees himself as Mr super popular leader type but has not been tested in a HARD portfolio. I would like to see him tackle something big like IR reform or health reform before he tries to be PM.
by daretotread on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Dare to:
How do you read Crean in all this ?
Is Bolt simply stirring the Pot?
by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:40 pm
That internal polling would have disappeared ages ago.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Why didn’t Lateline try to get an interview with the Socialist candidate?
After all, if you look at the polls (especially the head to head against Sarkozy), he is the one who will most likely become the next President.
by ShowsOn on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:42 pm
The unruly LNP rabble that is the Brisbane City Council are carrying on usual. Can’t wait for State parliament to degenerate into this after the Queensland election.
by steve on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Piffle. Whenever I’ve argued that Gillard has been attacked for being a woman I’ve substantiated it with examples.
And FWIW former Senator Susan Ryan was in the public gallery during qt today.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:42 pm
@ShowsOn/1393,
If you watch a few documentaries on Metal Music, you also know that Religion plays a roll in that as well, especially when certain bands are banned by Religious Authority (I think Iron Maiden is one of them – Chili 1992 Apparently due to Satanic Messages).
by zoidlord on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Internal polling from June 2010 wouldn’t be applicable to 2012.
The Gillard people will no doubt try and leak something else unfavourable to Rudd in coming days, perhaps via the INSIDERS program(because they know that Cassidy is a reliable disseminator of anti-Rudd stuff).
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:43 pm
I beg to differ, it is a reasonable question.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Firstly, it’s a second term government and the Libs would run the campaign they had set out for him in 2010 in 2013. He would have little chance IMHO. I’m not sure he wants to go down that way.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Puff,
Tone and Mesma do “butter wouldn’t melt in my mouth” very well.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Late night trolling is fun.
I have heard rumors that Rudd supporters are passing around public polling showing he is preferred by people that will never vote for the Labor party. In fact, I heard that internal polling is showing the exact same thing as the public polling.
The fact that Rudd supporters are doing what politicians have done since the start of the polling age in Australia shows that he is unfit to lead the Labor party.
by Mithrandir on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Grow up little boy
by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Do you really believe the crap you write?
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Are you arguing that there are no sound grounds for criticising Gillard?
And your views about the use of terms such as “bogan”, obesity jokes about Hockey, “mad monk” in reference to Abbott?
I will check back tomorrow and see your response (if any) to these questions, now asked for a third time. I am off to bed, big day tomorrow as well!
Good night.
by Mod Lib on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Does WordPress have a hamburger emo?
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:46 pm
Gary, he writes whatever will get a reaction. This is his entertainment for tonight (and indeed every night).
by Mithrandir on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:47 pm
Confessions
Why is the Rudd Gillard thing necessarily related to policy. Sure it was at first with the three big issues ETS, Mining tax and Assylum seekers being differences between Rudd and Gillard. However the ETS is settled according to the original Rudd way, the Mining Tax is settled and the High Court has forced the issue on AS, again to the Rudd position.
I DO have a suspicion that in economic policy Rudd will be more Keynesian and willing to spend than Gillard /Swan which will be good if there is a GFC II. There may also be some difference on international issues but these will be minor.
by daretotread on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Daretotread – who do you seriously think is next in line for the Liberals? Turnbull has had his go and won’t be back, the right hate him. Hockey has stuffed up too many times in his current role, and the right hate him (see Menzies House resignations), Robb – no chance, Bishop LOL, Pyne? Hunt?? Neither ready yet or the right person for the job – Morrison – scary
They’ve got no one – I honestly thought Abbott would be gone by now but thinking about it there is no one to take his place. So if Smith steps up it would be against Abbott imo
by womble on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:53 pm
No, which is why I’m not responding furiously to the legitimate criticism of Gillard in the same way you do legitimate criticism of Abbott and today’s Liberal party.
I readily self identify as a bogan, and have made no secret of this fact. I stay out of the Hockey jokes of obesity, and have never referred to Abbott as the mad monk as far as I can recall. What’s your point?
By contrast, can you please answer my question: do you agree that Productivity Commission reports are mere toilet paper, as has been claimed by Barnaby and the coalition?
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Hi Showon re 1393
Synchronicity – I was reading a review of Pinker today. Actually on the little I read there’s also a good argument that violence within society has been decreasing ever since humanity split from the apes.
I’m certainly not going to defend religious violence or bigotry – it’s just my view that humans can use anything in the end as a “flag” to hate with, and given the past universality of religion of course it’s going to be very prominent in violence, just as since the enlightment, humans have been able to use enlightment ideas to slaughter each other.
by Fil R on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:54 pm
ACT Liberals in big troubles apparently – Zed doing naughty things in terms of funding
Source – what the papers say on the ABC – story in the Canberra Times
by womble on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:55 pm
Just saying!
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:56 pm
womble:
With the Greens and Labor against him he’ll have a hard time ahead on this one. Especially coming right on the “failure to submit time sheets” ep.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:59 pm
Because if it isn’t then the prospect of yet another ALP leadership change is very firmly in the realm of NSW Labor.
And given that you and your fellow travellers continue to argue that Gillard Labor is NSW Labor Right incarnate, it strikes me as more than just a little ironic that you would turn up arguing the federal party emulate its NSW counterparts.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:59 pm
Daretotread: It’s been speculated that Rudd as PM again would bring in some additional measures to relieve the cost of the Carbon Tax.
His policy approach perhaps wouldn’t be radically different to Gillard’s, but the difference is that he’s a better salesperson than her.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:00 am
Womble, there has been speculation regarding Abbott here last weekend.
I don’t think his position is all that secure, a couple more weeks like last week for the coalition might be enough for the hard heads in the Liberals to act
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:00 am
But that isn’t really the question.
The empirical evidence is in, and it shows that the less religious a society is the more peaceful it will be.
You can crap on about examples like the Soviet Union all you like, but what existed before the USSR was a deeply religious society which the Communists then manipulated for their own agenda.
Have a look at North Korea which treats its leaders as deities. It is far too simplistic to just assert that communist societies are the same as atheist societies and then draw conclusions about atheism from that.
On the other hand, we can certainly point to things like the hundred year war to see what happens when religious doctrines become matters of state power.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:01 am
Just that you have nothing to say about those who make those comments, just those making sexist comments, thats all. Not accusing you of being obesist.
No I don’t agree with that, hence what I was saying about feeling free to criticise Barnaby for saying dumb things. Just saying that the comments about him being a hick or a country bumpkin aren’t appropriate.
by Mod Lib on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:01 am
Is there Any chance Rudd would take a sabbatical to a remote monastery for a couple of years, preferably in Tibet or Nepal or on the International Space Station?
Not that I don’t like the bloke, I have never met him, not that I am not grateful for Kevin07 nor proud of The Apology. It isn’t even that I don’t think he could effectively lead the ALP again one day.
It is just that then there might br one night on PB when the usual suspects STFerretU about the will-he won’t-he maybe-he might or might not twitch an eyebrow.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:02 am
Repeat of JBishop question on Apac. Abbott laughter all over it.
So much for her assertion she didn’t know why her colleagues were laughing as she answered.
by confessions on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:02 am
The compensation for the carbon price is actually compensation for the GST. That’s how generous it is, especially for families on incomes under $80,000.
I see no reason why the government should give back even more money.
I don’t think Rudd was a good sales person, even of good policy, e.g. the mining tax.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:02 am
A Death sentance for Greece
____________________
The Banks ultimatum to the Greeks is here seen as a corporate wish list
The multi-nationals and the banks will rule…even now they do through the E>U
Millions face poverty and starvation,as wages and pensions face a further round of cuts
In 1931 Australia was told by a UK Banker Niemayer that all wages and pensions must face cuts…poeverty for millions was the result…only Lang in NSW resisted
Scullin accepted tyhe Premiers Plan and was destroyed…and the ALP collapsed in state and federal politics]…
Lang resisted a situation like that in Greece today,but was sacked by the NSW Governor
History repeats itself sometimes
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/02/13/a-death-sentence-for-greece/
by deblonay on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:03 am
Mick
I think there is a powerful Victorian push for Crean. He is actually very well liked by colleagues and is seen as a steady pair of hands. Mind you he is also being promoted by right wing types because he would be the easiest to beat.
I think that Crean would be selected as the honourable captain of the sinking ship – ie to lead into defeat with dignity and save a few seats,especially in the battler heartland. I think Crean COULD beat Abbott with luck but again I think the libs would swing in with a more urbane candidate who would be hard for Crean to handle. Crean versus Turnbull or even Morrison would be hard. Crean versus Hockey would be interesting. Crean would probably win.
I think to some extent the success of the leader depends upon the opponent. I suspect that Abbott did particularly well against Gillard because his innate sexism meant that he avoided biffo and did not self destruct.
by daretotread on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:03 am
In the absence of a goat and half a pound of butter, Tony Abbott will be there for the duration. Even that might not be reason for a premature ejaculation. The Libs are notoriously lily-livered in such matters.
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:04 am
OK, if it makes you feel better, Barnaby Joyce is a Sydney private school educated elitist wanker who knows absolutely nothing about economics.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:05 am
fess,
The tension on the Oops side when BishopJ got up was so obvious; the tittering started early. It was first-degree.
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:06 am
Poor old Abbott; he’s not the brightest bulb in the box…
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/make-or-break-dash-for-the-line/story-fn5rhbh5-1225907487330
Adelaide Now, 19 August 2010
by Cuppa on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:06 am
TLM
That is hilarious. He didn’t do much of a job of selling to his party. (Although Big Mining is in the frame for the one, IMO)
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:06 am
TLBD – getting rid of Zed would be great for the ACT, might help the Greens pick up that 4th seat again
Sounds like Garrett will get his time in the spotlight again very shortly re school funding – more sensible changes on the way
by womble on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:08 am
Hope not, that would be defeatist, especially when the opponent is Abbott.
What ever happens Abbott must never become PM
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:08 am
I can just see it: T Abbott PhD.
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:08 am
Hi Showson
The empirical evidence is in
It’s late and this topic deserves more – however one piece of research is vary rarely the definitive statement, especially in History where for instance, statistics before modern times are very to extremely patchy.
And I will crap on about the Soviet Union – your view seems to be ‘heads it’s religious: you lose’ – ‘tails: it used to be religious: I win’. I was drawing no overall conclusions about atheism – merley pointing out that atheism like religion can be used as a tool of power and violence.
by Fil R on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:09 am