Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Gillard is a great saleswoman?
What is the current Newspoll?
55 Liberals, 45 ALP.
Yep, she’s obviously doing a stellar job, or will we again blame the sexist media for picking on poor Julia?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:09 am
Re: His comments on the Insiders this week ‘at least 4 journos have been briefed by Rudd etc’
Cassidy’s statements on Sunday Morn had more believability for me than Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and all the others combined.
It was a way of saying Rudd is committed to the battle, long term, even if it takes two goes, so maybe you, Mr Backbencher, would like to vote for Rudd at the first time, save the country the trouble etc.
by Mr Squiggle on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:09 am
Speaking of hilarity, the SMH’s front-page is pretty amazing. Their headline is ‘BRINGING DOWN THE KING’ and has a Hartcher/Coorey collaboration on all Gillard’s alleged activities.
by rishane on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:09 am
womble,
Zed is not particularly obnoxious (bit of a Gary Humphries) but some of his lot are.
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:10 am
Womble
I think Julie Bishop has the baton in her hand. I also think Morrison is a candidate. Hockey is I suspect history and Robb. Turnbull is less clear. He will continue to lurk. I guess Pyne thinks he is next but I cannot seriously see him winning. Quite seriously if Newman wins in Qld then they just MIGHT nominate Brough to try a similar trick.
by daretotread on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:11 am
After midnight. Don’t feed the gremlins.
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:11 am
@TLM/1445,
Who cares about the polls, I think many people have more important things to do than look a week by week polls.
i.e. Family matters, Family businesses etc.
Stop being selfish.
by zoidlord on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:12 am
Whose baton, this time?
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:12 am
No, my view is that you are completely wrong.
That’s not the question. The question is are religious societies more violent than less religious societies and the answer is that they clearly are. It is a major reason why violence has declined so markedly over the last 50 odd years.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:12 am
Mick when you start ignoring dishonesty based on some level of relativity I think you weaken your argument. Howard’s dishonesty was unacceptable because it involved refugees but Gillard’s dishonesty was OK because it only involved the voting public during an election campaign doesn’t quite do it for me. I am not alone there which probably explains the current polling.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:13 am
NBN
CEF
MRRT
Plain smoke packs
HIR…..
and how many reforms did Rudd bring down as PM Evan ?
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:14 am
Which is?
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:14 am
I don’t care what people say about bogans, and I don’t care what people say about Hockey.
That’s my bias, and you should learn to live with it.
by confessions on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:15 am
After Bishop’s efforts yesterday she has no chance Daretotread – Brough would be interesting – hopefully Newman loses and puts and end to that type of thing forever
I’d better get some sleep – night All
by womble on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:16 am
DavidWH
Howards lying was unacceptable becuase it was a deliberate dog whistle, to appeal to the Bigot Vote.
It villified refugees as some sort of sub-humans
and it appealed to the very worst in ouir nature.
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:17 am
Ducky:
JBishop was asked to repeat it by Slipper which she readily took up. The calls of support from her side were prominent.
Rudd’s response was perfect, utterly perfect.
by confessions on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:18 am
fess,
It was. Showed her for what she is.
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:19 am
Mick you said a few times lately that Abbott must never become PM. I suggest that is a real possibility while Labor continues to suffer from self harm. I think Labor will only have themselves to blame if your Armageddon comes to pass.
Labor has some real problems which have to be confronted of which the internal warring is just one.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:19 am
To me all that question did is demonstrate how completely disinterested in foreign affairs Bishop actually is.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:20 am
Mod lib
I do have some sympathy for you regarding comments about Hockey’s weight etc. It is less than pleasant. Mind you I am guilty of Mad Monk but I think that that relates to political views and is perhaps relevant.
However -just to by hypocritical- why does Abbott walk so weirdly – it is VERY off putting – also his tongue is odd.
by daretotread on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:20 am
I agree, Rudd should put up or shut up
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:21 am
Can’t wait for DavidWH to dispel the darkness.
Night!
by This little black duck on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:21 am
Mick any sort of dishonesty aimed at deceiving people to gain an advantage is unacceptable.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:21 am
The spiteful mantra is a sign of just how livid the Liberals are for her lifting SerfChoices off the shoulders of their neighbors and loved ones, stopping the pay cuts and restoring workplace conditions.
by Cuppa on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:22 am
Gillard is simply finished and for people on here to say otherwise is folly. Her credibility is shot, i can see it now the Lib ads before the election stating no carbon tax and a carbon tax.. Her evasive comments last night the perception is out their she cannot be believed. What upsets me the most is that she has to take the blame for the chauvinistic factional hacks who caused the problem in the first place.
To canvass alternatives is stupid their is only one – Kevin Rudd and he will win the next election because he is photogenic, likeable, well spoken and has a face which makes you want to listen to him. Poor Julia does not, people switch off when they look at her.
People do not elect politicians on reforms they do so on looks and personality.
Finally the government needs to change tack on this surplus or do something about monetary policy because the economy is collapsing and somehow money needs to be injected into it to keep it thriving and monetary policy is seemingly dead and fiscal policy well the surplus seems to be all important. If it is not careful the current economic approach will ruin any hope it has of winning next year.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:24 am
To say that the PM was being dishonest over Carbon Pricing is disengenous.
The PM has to adapt to the realities of a minority government, her agreement with the various independant parties neccessitated that she act to takle AGW.
As Keynes once said “when the facts change, I change my mind, what do you do sir ?”
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:25 am
Yes, DavidWH, what dishonesty are we talking about here?
“No carbon tax…”? Even if you totally ignore the context of the comment – which is quite important and completely explains why what she said made sense at the time, and in fact that what she has delivered is almost exactly what she promised before the election – even ignoring all that to make it a lie she would have to have been knowingly deceitful at the time she said it, and election promises that were intended to be kept cannot be “lies” or “dishonesty”.
Similarly with Andrew Wilkie – a broken promise is not the same as a lie, no matter how much Tony Abbott and Christopher Pyne say it is.
Or perhaps you’re talking about the latest nonsense about when Julia Gillard knew about a plot to overthrow Kevin Rudd, and the only thing you can try to pin her on is her statements at the time that she was not going to challenge for the PMship – nothing has come out to alter the view that she didn’t decide to challenge until the day of the coup.
Oh, I see, you’re talking about perception not actual dishonesty. I don’t dispute that Tony Abbott and his band of goons has been very successful at pushing the perception that Julia Gillard is dishonest. Oh yeah, that’s how we want people to be judged, on how things seem, not reality.
by Jackol on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:25 am
Puff given the alternatives we are faced with I suspect no one is capable of achieving that. But Aussies are tough. We eventually survived Whitlam and Fraser so I guess eventually we will survive Gillard/Rudd/Abbott. I may not be alive when that happens but I am sure the youngsters will get there one day.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:26 am
Julie Bishop’ question whilst i did not like it, was very smart. The libs though never ask any questions which have any intelligence however.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:26 am
I already mentioned this article on the last page, but damn, the SMH is going all out to paint Gillard as the one KNIFER of King Kevin Rudd: http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard-used-polling-to-trigger-coup-20120214-1t49l.html
Who knew that his downfall was entirely because she showed some polls? Nothing else, nope.
by rishane on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:27 am
Mick and Jackol I know what Gillard and Swan said and I know how quickly they broke that committment.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:28 am
Do you seriously think people will be thinking about the carbon tax by late next year?
The RBA controls monetary policy.
And “collapsing” Who are you, Joe Hockey? The economy is growing a bit below trend. Let’s see what the jobs data out this week says about the economy.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:28 am
Tony Abbott: In your guts, you know hes nuts
The last people with any authority to critise the Governments handling of the economy is the Fiberal Party.
This is the Mob that have Put the Three Stooges to front their ecomonic team.
They cant even add up, let alone tell us the size or timing of their surpluss.
Only an economically illiterate half-wit would argue that the Fiberals could manage our economy
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:33 am
The problem was that the plotters took a poll supposedly manipulated to other elected members of the parliament to knife Rudd. Here we have it a dishonest bunch of factional hacks telling lies to colleagues to change votes. What a joke! What a team the Labor party has.
Playing games with the highest office of the land whilst many elected Labor Mp’s had no knowledge of what was occurring but the America’s seemingly did beforehand.. that makes it even more disturbing, people not elected by our population having a say in who becomes our Prime Minister and not the Labor Mp’ elected by members of party… It is simply mindboggling.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:33 am
Broke which commitment? They both promised during the 2010 election to pursue an ETS. What are we getting? An ETS. The only thing that has changed is an extended initial fixed price, and there was this little thing of the 2010 election which resulted in a hung parliament and … wait for it … negotiations.
by Jackol on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:33 am
Smart? It was an own goal.
by confessions on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:34 am
Too smart by half.
by Cuppa on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:36 am
The dollar is ripping the economy apart and i doubt it will come down in the short term. Jobs data is simply a joke. You only have to work for a couple of hours a fortnight and you not considered as unemployed.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:36 am
Poor old marky. The caravan moved on years ago but still banging the same old warn out kettle drum.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:39 am
NBN – Rudd
ETS – Rudd (Gillard helped sideline that one only to be forced into it later – hardly her credit AND he was working on it again to take to election when Gillard stabbed him)
Resources Tax – Rudd
GFC – saving the country from recession and many thousands of families from misery. (but that one doesn’t count does it)
Funny the things people want to credit Gillard for are Rudd’s initiatives
ALSO Rudd did OK selling Labor’s achievements. It wasn’t as though Labor was 45/55 in the polls month after month after month. What was it, one bad poll, and that allows a whole bunch of absolute negative statements against Rudd.
Rudd’s poll figures were standard fare for PMs and probably better than most. But wait, Rudd is being judged against higher standards. He had to get 58/42 all the time to be considered equivalent to say a Gillard 44/56.
Let stop this Rudd didn’t do anything or didn’t sell rubbish when it is patently a Labor hack and PB meme bought about by the nature of Gillard’s coming to power.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:42 am
Yes due to the strenth of our economy (oecds best peformer) and due to demand for our comodities. Thats why we need the MRRT
It was during Howards watch that they changed the definitions of Employed
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:42 am
Utter bullshit! The economy is growing at something like 2.5% p.a. thanks mainly to something like $84 billion worth of mining projects that are starting up.
No, you’re the joke for just putting forward baseless assertions then expecting everyone else to read your nonsense.
That is to make the statistic equivalent to the measure used in other countries and in previous decades.
There is a good statistical reason for defining unemployment in that way, but of course you couldn’t care less about the complexity of the issue.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:42 am
Jackol, Howard went into 07 with an ETS.
we knew it was comming since then, so for people like DavidWH to claim other wise is simply wrong.
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:44 am
Jackol you conveniently ignored Gillard’s rock solid committment to build community concensus during this term which she traded for power. Well fair enough but she also has to wear the consequences of that trade off which is reflected in the polling.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:44 am
Err, why is Rudd alone getting credit for this policy? Do you think Steven Conroy might of had something to do with it? And what about the cabinet that approved it, including Tanner who had to take care of the investment arrangements as finance minister?
You really think it is just a single bad poll that did him in? Could it be the fact many of his colleges in cabinet and caucus felt he was a tyrant that worked against him in the end?
He didn’t exactly do much with those astronomical figures did he?
He was the PM which makes him chair of cabinet. At the end of the day HE has to take responsibility for shelving the ETS even after he proposed it was so important. The fact people in and out of cabinet advised him to do so doesn’t matter. In fact, Rudd himself said last year on an episode of Q&A that shelving the ETS was a mistake.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:47 am
Thomas remember the song Short Memory, people do not like changing things, they hate change. Rudd is not a factional hack put simply the factions have got to have a factional hack. Look at Victorian politics they go with a dud as deputy because he has got to come from the correct faction. Fair dinkum do they want to be elected back into government?
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:47 am
TP an utter load of Shyte
Rudd did NOTHING
that was his problem
when he had the chance to show ticker and call the DD that would have ensured the “greatest moral challenge of our time” ETS would have passed he squibed it.
Thanks for comming
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:47 am
Actually the current method of measuring employment was adopted during the Hawke government but by the ABS in line with international procedures and definitions.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:49 am
Oh yeh and what is that good statistical reason other than allowing politicians to do nothing about the issue.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:50 am
face:palm
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:51 am