Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Total frog shit. Gillard made it very very clear that her intentions was to do as little as possible on that front, hence her cop out gab-fest forum taking everything back to square one again. And her trying to imply their would be no action with the no carbon tax. At best she was muddying the waters giving conflicting messages so she didn’t have to confirm she would do anything, more reasonable from all the signals she was giving is that she had no intention of bringing in any ETS type action.
And the revelation that she was one of those who wanted the ETS shelved and permanently ought to nail her position to the mast for all to see.
The ultimate position of the Greens in the HOR as the only reason Gillard did anything, she had no choice. They both had no choice. The Greens had to put up having got a balance of power and Gillard had to put up to grab hold of the PM’s job.
Basically the Greens ended up passing Rudd’s ETS, because this time around it was politically beneficial, as it was beneficial them to block it under Rudd.
Gillard and action on climate change/global warming ought not be mentioned in the same sentence.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:52 am
Mick 1488 that is a deliberate misrepresentation of what we were talking about. We were discussing committments by Gillard in 2010 and not Rudd in 2007. It’s a poor argument similar to those who use Work Choices to bash anyone who has voted for the Coalition.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:53 am
Keep on with PBs longest ever dummy spit TP
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:53 am
The usual suspects are out again in force:
The Usual Suspects: Gillard is finished.
Others: No she isn’t.
@TP/1495,
She made no statement in regards to “little as possible”.
by zoidlord on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:54 am
Let me see,
From July 1, tax cuts apply and the threshold increases to over $18k per year. Super is increased, business tax cuts apply and the compensation packages for the the Carbon price are introduced.
Already Labor has increased Family allowance by up to $4k per year for older children back at school.
Pensioners will receive $250 in March as a pre payment for the carbon price and their pensions will increase above CPI adjustments after July.
Interest rates have dropped which has reduced average home mortgage repayments by about $30 per week. This is predicted to increase in the coming months.
The LNP will, according to their current rhetoric, undo all this if elected. Acolytes here and elsewhere expect the voters to completely trash their lifestyle to accommodate the ideological ratbags that call themselves the LNP.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:54 am
Why hello there. You seem to be forgetting that Rudd shelved the CPRS!
He was Prime Minister at the time, so it was ultimately HIS DECISION.
Well history will show that it was Gillard that was PM when we got a carbon price, NOT RUDD, because Rudd guilelessly avoided going to a D.D. in early 2010 even though he told colleges that is what he was going to do!
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:55 am
My Mum was just tried to save a drowned spider by covering it in salt. It is moving its legs around now. The Huntsman fell into the sink with water in it.
Mum told me that as kids they used to put a fly under water for about five minutes then take it out and put salt on it. They fly would revive and go on its way. Does anyone know anything about this? Can a flies hold their breath for five minutes?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:56 am
Work Choices is an entirly appropiate vehicle to bash tories with
As for the ETS, its fairly obvious that a Labor Government would have implememted some form of Carbon Pricing. It never truly left the agenda and The PM simply implimented policy that was part of their platform since 2007.
Move on nothing to see there.
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:57 am
What does “build community consensus” mean exactly? How do you judge whether a consensus exists? Ok, to some extent it’s weasel words, and she should have been marked down for that (and I’m sure that I argued at the time that they needed to be more forthright and positive on this issue), however let’s look at the actual history of this:
* 2007 election – both the ALP and the LNP go to the election with a promise of an ETS
* the ALP win, and attempt to put the CPRS through, which is knocked back in the Senate 3 times
* 2010 election – in light of the failure to get the CPRS through the Senate, Julia Gillard promises to ‘build consensus’, and if the political conditions are favourable, to legislate in this term
* in light of the hung parliament, and the negotiations, and the failures to get the CPRS through parliament, being able to get the ETS legislation passed is about as close to “community consensus” as you can reasonably expect.
The biggest lie in all of this is the LNP and its supporters who proclaim that the public were somehow duped into voting for the ALP because of some weasel words during the election.
No one. No one would have voted for the ALP on the understanding that they wouldn’t be introducing an ETS.
Crocodile tears and malicious puffery.
by Jackol on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:58 am
Again total rubbish, and you are well aware of it. And it is tantamount to being dishonest to neglect context when making accusations re the DD as has been covered earlier.
The Gillard extremists getting more shrill and absolute in their hatred of Rudd the worse the position of Gillard.
How about the extremists for once make Gillard responsible for her poor performance and lack of leadership and the state of the Labor party. Even for one nano second. It would appear she could lead Labor down to total oblivion and none would see she had any fault.
Gillard is only allowed to carry credit here on PB.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 15, 2012 at 12:58 am
@TP/1504,
I’m still yet see any evidence that she is finished.
by zoidlord on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:01 am
My god, is this from old Pravada, Xin Huan…some for of official propaganda. Her policy here was an attempt to take things all the way back to square one. Build community census…hahaha
by Thomas Paine on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:01 am
What Rudd did regarding shelving the ETS was the right policy as it would never have got through the Senate
and also not having a Double Dissolution election was also correct because fighting an election over this would have
been suicidal. Gillard never proposed a carbon price, never, she was forced into it, she said it would happen sometime in
the future, that is why she made that pledge on a Carbon Tax.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:02 am
your hanning yourself with your own rhetoric. As the incoherence in your response shows
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:03 am
DId Gillard ever do anything about funding to rich private schools as education minister- she squibbed it.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:04 am
Mick I know you want to move on but the polls won’t let you. Why are both Gillard and Labor struggling? It comes down to credibility and that credibility was lost when the government back flipped on the carbon tax issue and every subsequent issue, relevant or irrevelance, chips away at the credibility problem. You can ignore but you may have to get used to calling Abbott “Prime Minister”.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:04 am
zoid,
She’s only just begun……
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:05 am
Bullshyte.
The polling at the time was clear that had a DD been called, the ALP would have won in a landslide. It ws the time when Coalition figures were serisously concerned of being reduced to only 20 seats
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:06 am
Gotta say not even David Irvine is a good at historical revisionism as what TP is.
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:07 am
Economic policy will eat Abbott.
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:09 am
@Marky marky/1509,
She gotta give something back to the Rich and taxless.
by zoidlord on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:10 am
Does anyone else find it a little incongruous that the Cult of Kevie is so insistent that JG’s demise is imminent, in a week when the govt she leads is getting controversial health funding changes through a hung parliament?
Not to mention that those changes will have a somewhat significant effect on their fiscal position and so their ability to deliver on their commitment to a surplus budget?
Regardless of your position on the Rudd/Gillard leadership issue, you gotta admit they are getting things done that are actually pretty good from a policy point of view.
by imacca on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:10 am
The populace wanted to get rid of The Rodent, and liked Rudd, and were excited by an new ALP government which was something not seen for a long time (imo).
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:10 am
David WH- credibility is blamed on the Leader unfortunately, and a change will alter this, but i feel sorry for Julia because she is taking the can for the mistakes of the factional hacks, Shorten, Arbib, Farrell and Feeney. The factional hacks thinking that the Prime Ministers’ job is like a lucky dip.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:10 am
It comes down to the credibility (the lack thereof) of the media. Australia has the most biased media in the developed world, as well conservatives know, the bias being completely to their benefit. Take that advantage from the so-called Liberal Party and it would be finished – kaput! The conservative party is so utterly worthless it could not stand on its own.
by Cuppa on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:11 am
davidwh,
You may not have noticed, but the Government is actually employed to Govern. Second guessing Opinion polls as your only source of political legitimacy will send you insane as has already occurred with a number of PBers.
Continued good economic management and 300 pieces of legislation passed (including another big win tonight) are the real score card for the Government and will be what they are talking about come the next election.
Good policy will eventually produce good polls.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:11 am
Right, so this:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillards-carbon-price-promise/story-fn59niix-1225907522983
was just some journalist’s imagination?
…
There is a start date suggested of post 2013, and that’s been moved up to 2012 – I’m happy to put that down to negotiations necessary as a result of the hung parliament.
Funny how people who throw around insults about “rewriting history” are so frequently guilty of it themselves.
by Jackol on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:11 am
imacca, yes it is rather striking isn’t it ?
Happens all the time legislation is about to get passed too.
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:12 am
Cuppa,
We do not have media, we have a tea-party propaganda machine.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:12 am
Yes they are getting things done, but in all seriousness if this continues until mid year than they better act becasue the message will not be getting out their.
by marky marky on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:13 am
imacca,
Remember, the appointment of Slipper as Speaker was a disaster. Not to mention the Cabinet re shuffle that elevated Plibersek to the Health Minsiter that got PRI through tonight was a complete botch.
Still chortling
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:14 am
I think the PM and Combet should start running the line that the reason they have had to go to a longer interim carbon price period was to create certainty for investment. I also think they should drop the initial price a bit – say down to $18 per tonne CO2-e rather than the proposed initial $23/t, but still rising during the forst five years. They also need to take the torch to the Direct Action scam – if there is ever a case to prosecute the noalition on economic illiteracy this is it. I’d also like them to start saying “When we were dealing with grown ups like Mr Howard and Mr Turnbull we had bipartisan support for carbon pricing through an ETS, and Mr Abbott wanted a carbon tax instead. Now we are dealing with an infantile tantrum thrower we do not have any hope for community consensus, so we have decided to listen the near absolute majority of publish climate scientists and leading economists and put our kids and grand-kids’ future ahead of Mr Abbott petulant campaign of doing whatever he can to to become PM. He just wants to PM – he can’t tell us what he’ll do. He can tell us what he won’t do, but he won’t tell us what taxes he will raise, what services he will cut. He won’t tell us why his numbers don;t add add up, he won;t tell us when he’ll deliver a surplus, and he won’t tell us which parts of Workchoices he will bring back, and whether he will cut funds to stem cell research and women’s health services…etc”. They need to match Abbott’s mongrel – I reckon Albo, Combet and Crean should be let loose on him.
by sustainable future on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:15 am
marky marky:
In what way was it “smart”?
by confessions on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:15 am
What “context” are you talking about?
He had a D.D. trigger in his bag, and in early 2010 still had big leads in the polls.
He probably would’ve won at least a similar sized majority as the 2007 election, but would’ve come back with a far more agreeable Senate, most likely similar to the one we have now with the Greens holding the balance of power in their own right.
That would’ve made it much easier to get the CPRS through either at a joint sitting or with amendments negotiated with the Greens.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:15 am
Very true Puff. The biggest pack of sell-outs in the country.
by Cuppa on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:16 am
Right, so again, it’s not about what Julia Gillard has actually said and done, but the fact that the polls are bad. Perception over substance. Form over function.
You can point out the polls are bad and that the ALP will probably lose the next election, and you’d be making a reasonable comment. Saying this is actually all about how dishonest and dysfunctional Julia Gillard and this government have been is simply not true.
It’s a motherhood statement to say that we don’t want our leaders to be poll driven, and yet so many of these arguments come down to “but look at the polls” when the actual arguments don’t stand up.
by Jackol on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:17 am
re # 1526
All the Government has to do is play it like last week
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:18 am
My laptop battery is about to go flat
and so is my battery
by Mick Collins on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:21 am
Just had a glance at The Age’s homepage. Any doubt that they’re already knuckling under in anticipation of the billionaire mining heiress’ wishes is quickly dispelled. Disgusting. Time was, a couple of months ago, I was planning to subscribe to Fairfax when they erected the promised paywall, to help tip the scales against Murdoch. Their current behaviour has put an end to that intention.
by Cuppa on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:23 am
I don’t see $23 as excessive. The Shergold report recommended starting at $20, but that report was published almost 7 years ago.
The only reason the price as collapsed in the E.U. is because the economy there is basically in recession, so there isn’t strong demand for carbon permits. When the E.U. economy was growing, the price has been over 20 euros frequently, which is closer to AUD$30.
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:24 am
cuppa,
Let me guess, Labor Leadership crisis?
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:27 am
GG, article upon article of it, including poor old Michelle, who sings her anti-Julia refrain with almost the same intensity I sing my anti-media one.
by Cuppa on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:29 am
What this country needs is a job creation. A bounty on Whinging Billionaire$ and Lying media lackies would be a good start. Followed by recycling all printing presses and banning all newspapers. Nationalize all mines and ban all Lobbyists . Last but not least, get 2 doctors to put Suzanne Blake in the funny farm .
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:32 am
OK watched 4corners. All I can say is Gillard supporters of any kind must have gone and hid under the sofa. That was pretty painful. And made worse by the contrast in pictures given between her, and Rudd with Theresa.
Wow, she was pretty bad, and quite obvious did not want to lie about knowing about the speech being written long before the stabbing, so she just didn’t answer the question at all. She was complicit, at least two weeks before hand.
Always the cover up that hurts.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:44 am
Just remember passing legislation isn’t a road to re-election if a majority of people believe the legislation is poor legislation. It’s quality not quantity that counts. Personally I think Gillard will struggle to claw back lost credibility but she does have Abbott which helps. It probably will come down to cost of living issues, the economy and jobs.
If Europe goes really bad and the global economy struggles I think Labor will be in real trouble. If the carbon tax compensation measures benefits sufficient families compared to increases in cost of living then the government will likely claw back in the polls.
The Rudd factor is an issue while it continues to simmer.
It’s 50/50 in my opinion.
by DavidWH on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:46 am
@TP/1538,
I’m still waiting for evidence…..
yawn yawn yawn.
by zoidlord on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:47 am
I like how you completely ignore the part where one of Rudd’s former senior staffers described Rudd as “chaotic” and “Whitlamesque”.
You’re not really interested in evaluating the pluses and minuses of both leaders are you?
by ShowsOn on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:47 am
I don’t care.
I didn’t vote labor the last two elections I voted Green; although I think they are also a bunch of wankers most times.
I don’t care how Rudd was disposed of – he is a politician and suffered a politicians fate. I voted for him but he was beginning to get on my nerves with his pretentiousness.
I didn’t vote for Gillard because she is a Zionist suck-up – and her leading the bi-partisan zionist suck-up trip to Israel was fresh in my mind. But, they all are zionist suck-ups. I exhausted my vote (I’m in Griffith) because I had begun to dislike Rudd’s entitlement complex – and his wuss crybaby performance when he was ‘knifed’. That’s not being knifed, this is being knifed.
I don’t care about ‘faceless’ labor power brokers’ doing what power brokers are supposed to do – work the numbers -they are all zionist suck-ups anyway.
What I can say is that the zionist suck-up – Julia Gillard impresses me a lot. I will definitely vote for her next time. She is, without a doubt in my mind, the best. and most capable of the whole lot.
She is not some ‘macho’ ‘iron lady’. Not a political brawler. Not a pretentious twit. She is just one capable person who is having a lot of hyped-up garbage being chucked at her by a bunch of nobodies.
So what if they throw her out? She has already achieve more than the entire parliament combined will ever be able to achieve. She is a proven performer – just can’t be bothered to play the stupid games.
That’s how I see it anyway.
by JohD on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:48 am
That may be a common failing at PB.
by William Bowe on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:51 am
shows on. I agree $23 per tonne CO2-e is not excessive at all – it needs to be higher and and once it is part of an international trading scheme and reduction targets kick in it will probably move towards $40-65/tonne. I suggest the reduction for purely political purposes – so Labor can say ‘we’ve listened to concerns, and will reduce the initial impact’. Tackling AGW emissions will take at least 50 years to a century, so a low initial price will not make much difference in the longer term. They should pay for the reduced revenue by upping and broadening the super profits tax (would love to see the banks pay that) and having a new top income tax rate for anybody earning over $1million. Death duties for non-farming estates valued at more than $5 million should also be considered along with measures to close all the tax loopholes – negative gearing, family trusts etc.
by sustainable future on Feb 15, 2012 at 1:57 am