Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/liberals-pledge-on-boats-slammed/2454270.aspx?storypage=0
http://customs.gov.au/disclosurelog/default.asp
by Leroy on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:27 am
“It seems to me that the ABC usually just whip off a dismissive reply to any criticism they receive. It’s hardly worth writing to them.”
Confessions, they regularly do not reply these days especially of anything critical of the IPA of which I have 5 outstanding complaint emails.
by Dr John on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:29 am
shellbell,
I heard that at 1AM or whenever it was. The first question was wtte “Do you think the Republican nomination process has ‘lost it’s way’?”
And McCain said yes.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:30 am
Last night Ducky mentioned that the PM came into the chamber at 7.58 pm to add to an answer but didn’t know what she said. It was a lengthy addition to the answer on native title that she gave to Tony Crook. It’s in Hansard now at page 107. After QT Crook made a “personal explanation” in which he disputed Gillard’s answer, saying that the WA premier had sent her a letter on a particular date. This was an abuse of process because he wasn’t claiming he’d been misrepresented, but he got his objection on the record. Yesterday someone suggested that the question was a Dorothy Dixer, but it’s clear now that it wasn’t.
by triton on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:32 am
TLBD
McCain was pretty forthright. The lost the way observation was evidenced by too many debates among candidates and too much attack ads upon each other.
It was good listening.
by shellbell on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:34 am
Thanks, Triton.
Barnett wrote, the PM replied and nothing had been raised since.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:36 am
The current crop in the GOP field makes John McCain look like a very decent human being.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:37 am
shellbell
It is not too many debates or attack ads that is the problem it’s too many unelectable whackos.
by poroti on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:38 am
It wouldn’t matter WHO advised against it Abbott’s “TURN BACK THE BOATS” would still have currency.
by BK on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:39 am
It is obvious that Gillard’s PPM numbers will fall if she is not the only potential PM in the frame.
If I didn’t know better, I would think that Abbott’s PPM lead is manufactured by those forces wanting to get rid of Gillard. But that would be too machiavellian; and the accepted wisdom on this site is that the polls are “independent”.
I think the PM was poorly advised to go on Four Corners. It is now the story and will be so for the next week or so.
I honestly thought this poll would be 52-48. Bugger.
The leadership speculation is the biggest drag on Labor’s vote at the moment. Not Gillard, in my opinion. While she may not be liked (most pollies aren’t) she has the potential to gain respect. Which is a lot more than can be said for many others on both sides. But of course, her opponents undercut this by running the “she lied” angle.
Nought to do but soldier on, and suffer the slings and arrows in fighting the good fight.
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:39 am
abbott doing another predictable stunt before presser with his main supporters the media
by mickt on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:40 am
Senate Enviro and Comms Committee hears there were “several inaccuracies” in a News Ltd tabloid story about MDB flows into SA.
Label me shocked.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:40 am
lynch – and she will do that…. and, if she is ever rolled, she won’t cry and sook up like rudd!
by Lyne Lady on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:41 am
lynch – and she will do that for sure – one thing – if she is rolled, she won’t cry and sook up like rudd!
by Lyne Lady on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:42 am
made sure of that one
)
by Lyne Lady on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:43 am
Looks like the HoR will have 2 hours of debate (= Oops whinge) on the PHI starting at noon.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/info/daily/daily.pdf
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:43 am
Bushfire Bill,
That’s asking too much of Rudd the self-appointed demi-god. His one ambition since losing the PMship is to see his successor and her government fall in a mud splattered heap. He knows, I suspect, that he will never ever get his hands on the Labor Leadership again and, rather than own up to his own failings he is cowardly enough to allow all the blame to fall on the shoulders of PM Gillard, the one person who has given him his world stage; the portfolio of Foreign Affairs. I am pretty sure her colleagues would have counselled her against this weakness of hers to acknowledge Rudd’s worth to the country whilst at the same time giving him the opportunity to heal his wounds. Rudd has proved he was not worth a kindly thought.
by janice2 on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:44 am
shellbell
It is not too many debates or attack ads that is the problem it’s too many unelectable whackos.
by poroti on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:45 am
Dr John:
5 unanswered letters? Did you cc Sen Conroy?
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:47 am
I don’t think so. Confessions was right, if Gillard had said nothing it would be said to be a case of her having something to hide and fearing scrutiny.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:47 am
http://tinyurl.com/79legl4
Some corporate bigwigs in Oz can consider themselves very lucky.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:47 am
Well, I am going to listen to Paul Keating speak at a function this week. If there are questions, what should I ask him? I am reading his book at the moment and in one chapter he talks about the longevity of the ALP. Perhaps I might ask him whether he sees any time in the next 2 or 3 years when Labor’s PV will get into the 40s. Any other ideas for questions?
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:48 am
Part of the Coalition schtik at the moment is that THEY know better than anyone, any expert.
They’re better economic managers than Treasury. Even when their costing are shown to be full of holes, and their accountants disciplined for unprofessional conduct, they blithely repeat their costings farrago. And it is accepted without so much as a whimper by the Press Gallery.
Ditto for Customs and the Defence Forces.
Ditto for the High Court.
Ditto for everything.
In the face of incontrovertible facts, international acclaim for the government’s actions during the GFC, report after positive report on the stimulus, raw figures that show us doing better than then rest of the world by a long chalk, Abbott Speak rules.
They can say anything. Kroger last night got on the Q&A program and gave a speech on the nobility of infividual effort and tenacity, off people looking after themselves bravely in a dog eat dog world… as part of her defence of the maintaining of billions of dollars of subsidies to health care contributions for very high income earners! If they want to do it by themselves why do they need a subsidy? Kroger ignores the obvious answer. She argued that taking away a subsidy that is paid for by others, many of whom cannot afford health care, is somehow unfair. And she got away with it with token remonstration from some of the other panel members.
Ditto for the idiot audience member who went in even stronger, you could say offensively, exposing a raw greed that shocked me personally. And they get away with it.
Abbott can rant on about his “aspirations and about a return to the glory days of Howard – now nearly 5 years gone – and the best anyone can say is, “You know… tat’s our Tony.”
He can admit to being a liar, even brag about it. And he’s defended as being an honest liar.
They can say anything,dismiss any advice, run any story, and they get away with it.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:49 am
Newspoll was never going to be 52 -48. Why would it be? It hasn’t been that in ages. Nothing has really changed as yet. With MOE it’s actually in line with all of the other polls and they weren’t showing 52 -48.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:50 am
Perhaps Gary, but I just can’t see any upside. Portray it (the show) as low rent scandal seeking stuff that the world has moved on from.
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:50 am
Birmo is more across the specifics of the MDB than SenX who has tried to hide his inadequecies by hectoring the officials ala Brandis SC style.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:50 am
Newspoll was never going to be 52 – 48. Why would it be? It hasn’t been that in ages. Nothing has really changed as yet. With MOE it’s actually in line with all of the other polls and they weren’t showing 52 -48.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:51 am
Birmo is more across the specifics of the MDB than SenX who has tried to hide his inadequecies by hectoring the officials ala Brandis SC style.
by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:51 am
Part of the Coalition schtik at the moment is that THEY know better than anyone, any expert.
They’re better economic managers than Treasury. Even when their costing are shown to be full of holes, and their accountants disciplined for unprofessional conduct, they blithely repeat their costings farrago. And it is accepted without so much as a whimper by the Press Gallery.
Ditto for Customs and the Defence Forces.
Ditto for the High Court.
Ditto for everything.
In the face of incontrovertible facts, international acclaim for the government’s actions during the GFC, report after positive report on the stimulus, raw figures that show us doing better than then rest of the world by a long chalk, Abbott Speak rules.
They can say anything. Kroger last night got on the Q&A program and gave a speech on the nobility of infividual effort and tenacity, off people looking after themselves bravely in a dog eat dog world… as part of her defence of the maintaining of billions of dollars of subsidies to health care contributions for very high income earners! If they want to do it by themselves why do they need a subsidy? Kroger ignores the obvious answer. She argued that taking away a subsidy that is paid for by others, many of whom cannot afford health care, is somehow unfair. And she got away with it with token remonstration from some of the other panel members.
Ditto for the idiot audience member who went in even stronger, you could say offensively, exposing a raw greed that shocked me personally. And they get away with it.
Abbott can rant on about his “aspirations and about a return to the glory days of Howard – now nearly 5 years gone – and the best anyone can say is, “You know… tat’s our Tony.”
He can admit to being a liar, even brag about it. And he’s defended as being an honest liar.
They can say anything,dismiss any advice, run any story, and they get away with it.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:53 am
Lynchpin
I would be interested in Mr Keating’s view on Malaysia today compared to his views in the 80s/90s in the context of the proposed asylum seeker legislation.
Thank you
by shellbell on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:53 am
And ABC95 breathlessly continues to go to where Their Tone may appear any minute.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:54 am
just how many businesses in and around parliament are there left to visit by abbott, he might have to come up with some new stunts.
by mickt on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:55 am
A feeling in my bones? Hope? A sense that Mr No is really on the nose. A sense that the PM has lifted the rhetoric a notch and focus on the economy would win a few undecided over. I dunno.
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:56 am
BB
That’s EXACTLY what I meant!
Great post.
by BK on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:57 am
266 – Lynchpin – I was at PJK’s chat with Kerry O’Brien in Sydney, but time was up before he got to my question.
I was going to ask him, in this day and age with the media the way it is; caught up in fast moving non-stories and with an attention span so short; does he think he could have got his great reforms of the 80s and 90s sold in the current environment?
by Burgey on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:57 am
You and me both, Dee. So far as the Labor Party are concerned, I’m just fuming that they are allowing PM Gillard to take the whole brunt of their leadership coup alone. It is bloody time they all stood up, fronted the media and told them exactly why they had to ditch Rudd and why and how they persuaded Julia Guillard to step up the plate. If Rudd is going to continue to play the pure-as-the-driven-snow victim it is time his part in his downfall is made public.
by janice2 on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:57 am
Mitchell was coming out with your argument this morning. Do you really think by not going on anyone would change their mind? The story would still run with the PM being hounded for and her answers being scrutinised within an inch of their lives. Nothing has changed. In fact I don’t believe it will go a week. It’ll be lucky to last a couple of days. Issues will quickly overun it.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:58 am
mirrabella and abbott double revulsion !
by mickt on Feb 14, 2012 at 11:59 am
They’re showing The Slipper Procession. Totally weird!
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:00 pm
I believe that will happen and there are shoots of life popping up but such changes take quite awhile to bear fruit. Patience is a virtue.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:00 pm
The extent of any corporate punishment will be known when the HC delivers judgment in ASIC v James Hardie directors within the next few months. That does not pertain to exposing people to asbestos but the fund announced in 2001.
by shellbell on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:01 pm
I hope so, but I wonder if Mr Hodges was on her staff and writing any speculative speeches at the time.
I do despair at times. The elephant needs to leave the room (and the building).
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:01 pm
If Gillard didn’t go on 4C, she would have been asked the question for the next few weeks continually until she did answer it. That would have been worse.
IMHO she knew someone was writing the speech but didn’t tell them to. It doesn’t mean she had made up her mind to challenge.
Bob Brown joked and said he has checked with his office and he’s got a speech written for him if he becomes PM.
by Diogenes on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:02 pm
Thanks Gary. I am not the patient kind. I want it, and I want it now.
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Exactly.
by Lynchpin on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:04 pm
shellbell,
We can only hope.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:04 pm
ABC95 cuts to Tone and Sophie. Tlbd about to cut lunch.
by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:05 pm
I agree with that but what is the answer? Short of ending the government early I don’t see one. I just think they need to get on with the job. The media can only cry wolf so many times before people get to the stage of saying “Not that again.”
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:06 pm
PM on next
by mickt on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:07 pm
I know how you feel, believe me.
by Gary on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:07 pm