Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Triton then PB’ers can have confidence about the next election however they need to sort out their internal problems.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Space Kidette could you please provide a link to that immigration page that dispels myths
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:14 pm
you’re dreaming lynchpin. The bottom line is the public hates the woman and that aint never going to change
by centaur009 on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Long time listener, first time poster and all that.
Something out of left field has just occurred to me. What if the “business lobby” starts getting critical of the Libs position? They’re always banging on about wanting certainty. The carbon price, MRRT, super changes etc will have been in for over a year, the sky wont have fallen, their business practices will be well established. All the Libs are promising is to reverse all that but not giving any details about the alternatives. Surely out of self interest they’re going to have to start pointing this out? They might have to do it with a peg on their noses, but they’ll have to do it. Alcoa has already directly and pointedly contradicted Abbott regarding the carbon price effect of the Geelong job losses.
Wishful thinking? Naivety? Sounds logical though, what am I missing?
by Narns on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:15 pm
centaur009,
The weekly massage is untrue. They each receive a backscratcher made of timber from clear felled native plantations.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Interesting the issues with the Ruddstoration:
1) Rudd could lay this to rest at anytime by declaring that he is not in contention for the leadership this term.
2) Rudd could lay this to rest be challenging and getting it over and done one way or another.
3) JG cant lay this to rest. If she calls a spill it will get jumped on as a sign of weakness and insecurity which the ALP cant afford. She cant actually dump Rudd from Cabinet in case he has a dummy spit and resigns from parliament (the implied threat that guarrenteed him the FM job)
Either way, Rudd could end the damage this is doing daily to his party, the ALP, but he CHOOSES not to.
by imacca on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Boerwar@4405
Agree with what you had to say back there – similar to something I posted earlier.
I mentioned that, perversely, Rudd is in a very strong position to wreck and destroy.
Paradoxically, the longer JG has to put up with all this rubbish AND survive, the better.
We will start to see the “My, how tough she is!” and “Boy, fancy having to put up with that stuff all the time” kind of comment. It is not there yet, as she is still not all that sure footed with the media despite all.
There will come a time though – I would think if she is still standing, later in the year.
The Wolf-cryers will have to rethink their line as their credibility will crack – as many have already done so.
The thing is, her party have to back her. It is that and/or Rudd and two terms – at least – in opposition.
I sometimes get a sinking feeling that some on the progressive side of politics would actually prefer to be in opposition!
by Tricot on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:19 pm
MB,
Here’s a press release.
http://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/news/releases/120217%20-%20Daily_Telegraph.pdf
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:20 pm
When you grow out of your short pants you just might start thinking for yourself and not form character judgments on the say-so of those who lack both character and integrity.
by janice2 on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:23 pm
The bottom line is that they hate Abbott too and while that is the case JG has a shot.
by Gary on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Boerwar @ 4405
Are you one of “this sites angriest haters” that William referred to last night?
Certainly one of the most turgid.
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:26 pm
There is also an article in the SMH containing Bowen’s response along with Michael Roper of Red Cross which I cannot link without my computer going to the shithouse.
by shellbell on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:28 pm
PTMD @ 4410
All of that was being quoted on 2GB last night with the source being that great paper of record… “The Daily Terrorgraph”. ‘Nuff said.
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:30 pm
@Cofessions/4408,
Yes agreed, but this was only a $11 billion black hole, we are now looking a $70 billion+ black hole.
I don’t think the public will “swing” with that….
by zoidlord on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:31 pm
I know one person on PB who’s heart will be bursting with pride on election night if Tony Abbott does win Evan. Who might that be?
by Peter of Marino on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Bowen confirmed that refugees are provided accommodation which obviously includes normal household items like TV, fridge etc however these are not owned by the refugees and stay with the accommodation. Basically we are complying with our international obligations and the issue is a beat-up.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:38 pm
DavidWH
Trouble is is that the shills in the MSM (I’m talking Dolt, Pies, Jones et al) will allow them top get away with it.
Like they have done in the past.
To the Shills, proper scrutiny only applies to the centre/left
The conservative right can do what it likes.
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:38 pm
(Sort of) interestingly, Hadley was on air this morning saying that the previous viral email describing the Land Of Milk And Honey provided for refugees was just a hoax, but THIS story was spot on.
The tactic seems to be that you spread a set of completely egregious lies first and then debunk them, substituting a slightly less set of egregious lies as “the actual truth”.
“That wasn’t true, but this is true.”
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Tricot
I think that the ALP currently has, in contrast with the Coalition, a lot of relatively young and very talented people who would like to be moving onwards and upwards. They’re stymied a little by the dicipline necessary to stay in government.
Compare them to Coalition members.
by CTar1 on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Thanks GG
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:39 pm
TLM if Abbott gets up in 2013 the blame for the loss will fall heavily onto KR not JG, here at PB and in the wider Labor community.
I was angry at the leadership change and still believe it is having a negative effect on Labor’s polling but accept that an overwhelming number of KR’s colleagues could not work with him. When push came to shove KR worked that out too and did not contest the leadership vote. KR has every right to aspire to and gather support for a new challenge but the current situation is hurting the Government badly and that is not acceptable. If KR wants to challenge he needs to state it and if he does not he needs to show he is not the one briefing the media and unequivocally state it and support the leader into the election. Sitting back and saying nothing will only lessen his stature in the eyes of many like me who like him and still admire him for getting rid of Howard. It will be a shame if he is only remembered as another Latham.
JG has her faults and is not the most charismatic of leaders but is achieving Labor goals and for me that is most important. Get over your hatred and deal with the present and future not with the past.
by kevjohnno on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Laura Tingle’s piece in today’s AFR is very good.
http://afr.com/p/opinion/labor_leadership_wrangle_will_end_jxP7JL0ozRhj3XwihD5V1N
Gary I think was asking earlier about leadership spills. I read in the AFR that a petition of one third of caucus is needed to force a showdown.
by Lynchpin on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Hate is probably too strong a word for how the Australian people feel about either – loathe or despise might be better.
by blackburnpseph on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:46 pm
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2012/02/17/air-australia-goes-down-the-worst-way-lying-to-rthe-media-and-stranding-hundreds-of-passengers/
more in the article
by Leroy on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:46 pm
I don’t see any evidence of the media increasing its scrutiny of the Coalition.
If you have some, let’s hear it.
Judging by the media’s recent pattern of behaviour there is nothing to indicate they will do their job properly before the next election and hold the Coalition to account.
They are about letting the coalition off the hook.
by Cuppa on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Centaur009, yes I am a dreamer. Proud of it too.
by Lynchpin on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Meanwhile Tony Abbott scrapes slime from the bottom of the same barrel as 2GB and the Telegraph.Bastard.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/minister-attacks-abbott-over-asylum-seeker-comments-20120217-1tcs7.html#ixzz1mbE6SvBu
by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:47 pm
DavidWH
True, but over at blogs like “NTB” the wingnuts will be playing this for all its worth, as truth that refugees get all the benefits under the sun, and thats the real motivation for them to risk their and their families lives on treaturuous seas on leaky tubs
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:47 pm
That’s why I’m here Mick. If had posted that last post in another place I would have been lucky to leave with my skin intact.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Puff,
re your entitlement question for refugees. This sort of stuff has been going around the community for a very long time. I’ve had many an argument about it but I’ve found there is no way to persuade the believers of such rubbish that it is not so.
For a long time now I have been thinking that the Government should spend a little money for the education of the people by setting out exactly what taxpayers pay to settle refugees into the community. Centrelink already send out a quarterly booklet setting out pension entitlements etc so why not include tables for refugees? Also, it wouldn’t hurt if there were “quarterly” ads designed to dispel these myths and enlighten the people of the truth. Perhaps it might be a good idea to email Chris Bowen to give some thought as to what to do about it?
by janice2 on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:52 pm
janice2
Agreed – maybe they could identify the difference between these costs compared to detention costs which must be much greater
by shellbell on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:54 pm
The surgical proceedure being performed by nurse ratchett no less
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:54 pm
“Would there be as much love for Julia Gillard on this blog if on election night, 2013, Tony Abbott has won pretty convincingly?”
Certainly would be for me and even more hatred towards Rudd than Abbott.
Piss off Rudd!
by Dr John on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Poroti. Thanks for posting that. With all the distractions on the ALP side of politics, your posting re Abbott’s comments re asylum seekers is a timely reminder that the man is a f#cking ar$ehole.
by Lynchpin on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Yes I switched off when I heard The Wrap would be Roskam and Sally Mahar. She is the token leftie as a declared ALP member, but of absolutely no value. She strives for the nuanced and balanced approach, which is useless against a partisan hack like Roskam.
Oddly enough, in her normal role as a broadcaster she is quite good and filled in for Faine once very well. But balance is just not suited to that format. She has also stood back when Gillard has been attacked personally, or in some cases given a qualified agreement.
I’d much sooner have Liberty on. She’s passionate and will not let Roskam or Wilson get away with talking over her.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:59 pm
DavidWH
Not to mention discovering that despite what you thought you are actually a socialist, inner city elitist left wing lovvie bent on “destroying this once great land” with multiculturalism to facilitate the establishment of the global caliphate or One World Government
by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:59 pm
I’ll post the tweet, you decide:
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 12:59 pm
No, Bemused. He’s not.
by William Bowe on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Lynchpin
by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:05 pm
So the LNP finally come out and admitted what everone has known for 12 months – Newman is just the mouthpiece for Premier Seeney.
by steve on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:08 pm
I like this bit from Tingle, re Gillard:
I think (hope) the electorate is -grudgngly- beginning to see JG in the same way.
by Ozymandias on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:09 pm
The three stooges have a lot to answer for.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:09 pm
A Liberal Premier with a National Party mentor – that will make QLD a nice old laughing stock.
by steve on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:10 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-17/treasury-says-australians-should-be-happier/3836144
more in the article
by Leroy on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:10 pm
The question is how soon Julia Gillard can get the primarys up into the high 30′s. If she can, she is more likely to stay on. But how long can the ALP wait? The end of the year as GG suggest would see the ALP going into an election year with either a leader staring defeat in the face or an election year change of leader that may reek of panic. There are windows before elections when leaders can be changed without the party looking panicky – in 2007, there was no chance that John Howard could go after about May.
There are powerful arguments for Julia Gillard sacking Kevin Rudd now – he is stoking uo the uncertainty and it would make her look strong – she could dare him to bring a Labor government down – which would see him joining the pantheon of Labor rats if he did .
by blackburnpseph on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:12 pm
That DT asylum seeker “life of luxury” beat up is horrifying. How can anyone involved in that, from the journalists to the editor, justify the complete lack of facts, honesty, perspective. It’s so blatant, and leveraged by all the haters in the country.
News Limited, Rupert Murdoch, the single best contribution you could make to this country would be to just get out of our lives.
by Jackol on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Gorgeous Dunny
Sally Warhaft. Yes, she’s given up on Gillard and just wants her to go. She put the boots in a few times today. Roskam wasn’t needed. As you say, Liberty Sanger is much better.
by triton on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Poroti I am too old to be any of those things. I don’t have enough hair anymore and I lost my pipe in the 70′s. I think I left it in the pocket of one of my safari suits.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:17 pm
There will be businesses that will go under due to people holding on to their cash through fear of a recession thanks to the fearmongering of the opposition. The crazy thing is that these very same business owners will support that party despite the fact that small business will pay more tax when Liberal policies are implemented and an across the board reduction of turnover due to the creation of a second class of worker with no discretionary spend available to them.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Not much praise in that phrase …
by blackburnpseph on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:19 pm