Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Jackol
Beat ups like that are bread and butter for Rupes UK papers. I wonder if some refugees from his UK papers have taken up residence here ?
by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:19 pm
William @ 4481
I am truly surprised!
What does it take to qualify? Is it based on depth of hatred? Number of hate objects? Degree of irrationality? Frequency of hate posts? what?
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:21 pm
This is exactly why I have respect for her and the job she’s doing.
I thought the govt’s performance in QT this week saw the beginnings of a cohesive narrative on their economic mgt record. The PM was very authoritative, and showed she means it when she said she wants the debate to shift to the economy.
by confessions on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:23 pm
DWH
They are doing small target for the very good reason that they are planning to cut squillions of dollars worth of programs. IMHO, if they revealed what they are planning for the APS and for fed govt departments they would lose all their seats in the ACT.
So, no scrutiny, thank you very much. Bluff and bluster will have to do until they hold the axes. Then it will be chop, chop, chop.
by Boerwar on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:25 pm
You leave a great many comments which make no other point than that you don’t like other commenters, Bemused, including that one. Maybe I meant you.
by William Bowe on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Bemused
You might be tempting fate to see if you are on the list
by shellbell on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Poroti it works because more of us want to believe its true than not true. It gained transaction from Hanson times because for years it was drummed into us that it was not allowed to express opinions that differed from the new order thinking.
Personally I think we should be able to voice concerns even if they are misguided concerns because repressing people’s ability to do so just builds up resentment.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Are you sure it wasn’t a leisure suit?
by confessions on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Confessions
The government will absolutely pwn the opposition over economic management. Thats why the MSM insist on talking ‘Ruddsoration’
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:27 pm
{Jessica Rowe @msjrowe · Close
Appalled by front page story about asylum seekers in Daily Tele… Refugee council says claims are untrue. Lets foster compassion not hate]
Very impressed with Jessica Rowe shame some other commentators could do the same thing
by mari on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:29 pm
I finally got my Mother to grudgingly give up on $10,000-whitegoodgate but it was hard going after 5aA et al had been earbashing her for hours.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:29 pm
BBS,
A lot of people have been saying that the Rudd challenge was a figment of imagination or the Press Gallery making up stuff to keep a story churning. That part of the story has been kyboshed by the revelations of Cassidy and others who will no longer allow Rudd or his backers to remain on background or otherwise anonymous.
This changes the atmospherics significantly. No longer is there doubt that Rudd is actively undermining his Leader. Open treachery and disunity is somewhat different to maintaining an anonymous guerilla campaign based on a “Poor Kev” meme.
Much is made of Rudd’s comment back when he first became LOO that he would “Mess with his (Howard) mind”. Unfortunately for Rudd, he is up against a superb negotiator who knows her strengths and weaknesses and when to maximise her position.
Gillard hasn’t actually done anything to smite Rudd, as yet. But, the Rudd Leadership putsch has been flushed out in to the open well before they would have liked. From reports, Rudd has provided extensive detail and notes to journalists during this backgrounding phase. So no doubt, further surprises about Gillard will emerge in the coming days and weeks.
Gillard’s giving Rudd and his alleged supporters plenty of rope. My guess the rope will be pulled when she is good and ready. At which time the Spanish Inquisition will arrive and a few petards will be hoisted.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Bill Shorten comes on the radio blaming the high dollar for this and for that. And every time , there is an overtone of the “dog ate my homework”.
The high dollar is the primary economic challenge for this country at the moment and the government is doing nothing that might bring it down … the opposition don’t go on the attack about it because they have no barking clue either.
by blackburnpseph on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Confessions it may have been. I don’t know what possessed us to wear those things but I had several all different pastel colours.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Q, should ACMA draw up rules regardign Truth in reporting ?
That shock jocks can continue to peddle vile lies regarding refugees with out having to answer for their mistruths is an indigtment
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Does ABC 24 ever show a visual of Julia Gillard that his not followed immediately by a shot of Kevin Rudd, no matter what the story is or the context? I have Abc24 on with the sound turned down, and have noticed what I suspect is a trend, but I do not watch enough ABC24 to make an evaluation.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:33 pm
The economy is doing really well. Why would we want to tinker with such things as the exchange rate?
by trawler on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:34 pm
BBP the high dollar is a result of factors outside the control of the government. One key reason is the interest rate difference between us and the US. We are stuck with it until both the US economy and dollar recover.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:35 pm
I can’t figure out this tweet from Cassandra Wilkinson, who was (very good) on The Nation last night.
Jungle drums?
Earlier she had tweeted this observation:
by triton on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Well, they will if the opposition can only talk about the tent embassy and Craig Thomson.
by confessions on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:35 pm
I do not know why men in Australia do not wear safari suits. They seem to be the most suitable suit (pun intended) for the climate.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Given what we know about the PMs political skills she will leave it too late, and any victory will be pyrrhic at best. Maybe too much rope has been given and that she is fatally wounded now.
by blackburnpseph on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:36 pm
I don’t care for the L-word, but Geoff Winestock’s article in the AFR nicely articulates my thinking on Julia Gillard and gay marriage. For a woman with Gillard’s back story to purport to be opposed to gay marriage is beneath ridiculous. Progressives are left asking what’s the point of her, and social conservatives don’t think any better of her for it either – it just causes them to add insincerity to the long list of black marks they have against her name.
by William Bowe on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:37 pm
DavidWH:
If mens fashion is anything like womens fashion (endless recycling of previous decades), you should expect a safari suit revival any time now.
by confessions on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:38 pm
In regards to the speculation about the leadership:
Gillard and Rudd are at a stalemate. If Gillard calls at this point, she’ll risk the Independents support (although not to the same extent as Rudd), Rudd on the backbench and all the media speculation that will entail between now and the next election/challenge (i.e he’ll have time to build support).
If Rudd challenges now, he risks the Independent’s support, the budget, critical legislation such as the carbon tax, MRRT etc etc etc further alienating key factional players etc.
In short, I think this is going to go on until after budget, most likely after July 1st once the Coalition have lost the policy battle.
by spur212 on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Well, all this talk of doom and gloom in the economy is certainly making no difference in the shop where I work at.
I barely have a minute to myself these days, with more customers coming in daily this year than we had in whole weeks back in 2009.
I hope that this is happening everywhere else too, it’s fantastic.
by Von Kirsdarke on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:38 pm
William @ 4498
William, you leave me in an agony of uncertainty!
But you are hinting that challenging the haters is not viewed with favour.
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:38 pm
BBP -
So, how exactly do you control your currency when you have a floating exchange rate. Please explain it, I’m sure the RBA and Treasury would love to hear your novel suggestions.
As far as I can tell the only things that the government could do are:
* drop the cash rate to 0% – the RBA might have something to say about that
* completely trash Australia’s reputation so badly as to scare foreign investors so much they drop all their holdings as fast as they can.
Anything else?
So, short of being complete incompetents, how do you lower a floating exchange rate?
The Swiss gave up and pegged their currency – are you suggesting we do that – again, I think there would be a lot of economists lined up to ridicule you.
by Jackol on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:38 pm
DavidWH
Lucky you specified 70′s and the type of suit specifically!
by CTar1 on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Puff I worked with a coloured South African who wore safari suits well into the 80′s. We bought him one of those safari hats to go with the suits. He looked so funny but he had a good SOH. His first name was Yusef.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:40 pm
This country could be brightened up if men went back to wearing pastel safari suits. I am sick of blokes in power suits, the tyranny of ‘corporate dress’. And as one woman so succinctly put it, how can you take seriously a gender that every morning ties a noose around it’s neck?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Just reading that Cassidy article quoted this morning. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me:
So if I’m to take that as read, it’s ok to say that Rudd is talking to journalists, it’s ok to repeat what he said – in some detail – and when. But it becomes a matter of protecting sources only when what he said is actually placed in quotation marks? Surely it doesn’t work like that.
Besides which, the source isn’t even being protected – he’s the source, if Cassidy is to be believed. Which makes the following paragraph:
… complete gibberish. Either some journalists are going to come at Cassidy with pick handles for blowing their cover – or at least exposing their source, which is the kind of thing they’re always banging about protecting lest their supply line dry up – or there’s a major gap in logic here.
I think Cassidy’s big-noting himself. There’s no way he’s going to be expected to back any of that talk up. He ought to be. But it’s all wrapped up in “I can only say this much” qualifications, so he’s safe from scrutiny.
I should note that he’s been banging on about ‘imminent’ Rudd challenges for as long as anyone else.
Put it this way: when a journalist says “Rudd’s doing this” and Rudd is saying “No I’m not”, there’s no particular reason to believe one over the other. Not until we get some better evidence than “some guy told me this”.
Where there’s smoke there’s fire, yes. But what you’re smelling may just be someone’s pants burning.
by Aguirre on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
The sight of Russ Hinze in a safari suit probably had something to do with it
by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Bemused, I am not hinting that “challenging the haters is not viewed with favour”, I am telling you that Boerwar is no more one of them than you are.
by William Bowe on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:41 pm
William:
Agreed. The PM’s position on same sex marriage is truly ridiculous.
by confessions on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:42 pm
If you have a few spare sheckles then take advantage of the exchange rate invest it in us currency, then in 2 years or so, when the US economy finally starts to recover and the AUS$ returns to its natural level you’ll make a tidy little profit
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Mick Collins,
A: ACMA cannot write rules. It can only enforce them. The goverrnment sholuld give ACMA the power (it does not currently have this) to initiate action of its own accord against media outlets/presenters that lie, incite hatred etc. The way it works at the moment is, members of the public must complain to the media org involved, wait for the reply, and then, if dissatisfied, get ACMA to look into it. The process takes ages and findings adverse of the msm by ACMA are rare. The whole thing could be streamlined by empowering ACMA to strike first.
by Cuppa on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:43 pm
I agree with William on Gillard’s gay marriage inconsistency.
If she came out and said “I don’t want to alienate Queenslanders” she’d be better off than her current position which looks highly inconsistent.
by spur212 on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:43 pm
“I think I left it in the pocket of one of my safari suits.”
Check the leather manbag also
by Dr John on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Triton: just watched a replay of that (I think) on APAC.
If it was the same one, she was very good, as was Brendan O’Connor, who got very nicely fired up when Liberal features tried to throw in a “BER waste!” line. He didn’t even let Speers interrupt him or throw him off-balance until he had said his piece, including putting FACTS out there.
It was excellent, and we need to see more of it.
Labor has some great performers.
Labor has great policies.
Labor also, unfortunately, has a few rats in the ranks – chief of which is our former PM, who comes back like a bad penny any time our current PM gets a half-decent opportunity to tell a good story.
If Labor manage (by some miracle) to win the next election, it will be in spite of Rudd, not because of him.
by Danny Lewis on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:45 pm
William @ 4516
Now that will stir up the cult and have them baying for your blood!
You mean… Julia the Immaculate actually scores own goals and alienates people? Well I never.
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Nothing we can do short of re-regulating the AUD will have much effect. The AUD has been a highly traded currency for many years much more highly traded than supported by normal trade transactions. Hedge funds probably trade the currency more than banks.
We are stuck with it and if it means the country is doing better relatively than the rest of the world then it’s probably a good thing overall.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:47 pm
People don’t see anything fundamentally wrong with that type of thinking. If Gillard fails, it is not her fault. Blame will be apportioned elsewhere. I can only think this is a necessary rationalisation to maintain Gillard’s is always perfect and never can fail mentality.
Surely the blame will fall on:
1. those who knifed Rudd – which immediately bought in doubts as to her legitimacy and trustworthiness in the public eye. Something she been unable to correct. You could draw a line from there to now as the event that gave Gillard the PM but immediately poisoned her public character.
2. The Gillard team failing to win the last election, and needing to do deals for her to be PM. This again reinforces the negative view as to her legitimacy.
3. Then there is the latest episode regarding did she or didn’t she plot against Rudd, with the implication out their that she must have.
4. then her own personal performances must simply reinforce the public perception of untrustworthiness and so forth…or otherwise why on earth is she still struggling.
And so on. It really is weird to say that if the PM loses an election that it isn’t her fault, blame Rudd. That really is an admission that she isn’t competent enough to be PM.
And as for Rudd or anybody having aspirations for the PM’s job, well why wouldn’t they given the situation. It is exactly what you would expect in such circumstances, especially if there is a candidate out that appears to be highly popular with the public in comparison to both sides.
It is not as though she has only had one or two bad polls? She has been struggling almost from day one until today and there appear very little chance that anything is going to change as it will always be more of the same.
So yes, it is OK for aspirants to start lining up, to run their plans for the top job. The PM has had a long time to turn things around, and it appears she is unable to.
Rudd’s problem is that he is too popular in the public view. If he wasn’t people would have no troubles with him.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Jackol, I am not an economist, I don’t know the answer but I do know there is a problem. The RBA and Treasury pay hundreds if not thousands of economic boffins who might have a solution – it does not seem to have gone upstairs to the government if there is a solution. Maybe there is no solution … and we end up with manufacturing, tourism, services exports, exporters all hurting for years on end. Or you end up like Thatchers Britain in the early 80s with an internal scorched earth policy because the pund was too high for too long.
by blackburnpseph on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Aguirre,
Whether Cassidy is big noting himself is irrelevant. He has said categorically he knows who Rudd has spoken to and has notes of what was discussed and also when and where the meetings were held.
Also, Rudd is no longer denying.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Victoria I thought I would just wait and see if this was commented on in the MSM this morning, of course it wasn’t could you imagine if Wayne Swan and ?ALP MP were arguing , it would have been on the front page
by mari on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Too late. Queenslanders are already alien.
by Scarpat on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Why do you think she got asked AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN during the election campaign? At every public forum, she was asked and every time you could see from the expression on the face of the questioner that they just didn’t believe her.
I really does make absolutely no sense that she would oppose it … and yet she swears it is her personal view, not merely a political view.
by Danny Lewis on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:51 pm
IF you want something nice for a change besides Ruddstoration crapola, try this:
http://www.news.com.au/world/its-a-dogs-life-puppy-rescued-from-underground-pipe/story-e6frfkyi-1226273695371
Yes, it’s a puppy rescue.
Puppy rescues will always be quicker under a Coalition government.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:51 pm
William @ 4527
Fair go William. Lumping me in with Boerwar is just a bit too much!
Where are my turgid diatribes heaping hatred on Rudd and/or Gillard? Or anyone for that matter.
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 1:52 pm