Crikey



Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.

A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

9410 Responses

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  1. MsAdventure

    Yes I will be there. Should we wear green carnations?

    It would be good to chat to a fellow bludger, but I don’t have a green carnation. I am very much looking forward to hearing the great man speak. I suppose Kevin will be there. Should be a great night.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:27 pm

  2. I think it is ridiculous that a view that Gillard has put plainly and consistently over many years apparently makes her a liar. Talk about projection.

    Marriage is defined as a relationship between a man and a woman. This has been an underlying principle of Australian lifestyle and enshrined in the laws of our great Land. Sure, there are a myriad of personal arrangements that people live under. However, only one is called marriage. Oranges and Lemons are fruits. But, they are very different.

    This concept is not that difficult to grasp.

    Of course the Homsexual lobbyists want to paint this as a matter of human rights. But, it’s not really. It’s a definitional thing and no amount of hate directed towards upholders of long established traditions will change the facts. Provided people are treated equally before the law and have an unfettered access to servics then rights are protected. I have no problem with legalised civil unions. Just don’t call it a marriage.

    In the end the Homsosexual Lobby need to come up with their own name for their special kind of loving relationship.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:29 pm

  3. spur212…

    “I agree with William on Gillard’s gay marriage inconsistency.”

    What inconsistency is that, spur?? I’ve only ever heard her say that she believes marriage is between a man & woman….

    That is her personal view….she’s entitled to hold it…even our PM is allowed to have a personal view on social issues…

    She has not stood in the way of getting SSM onto the official ALP platform…has facilitated a conscience vote…and now SSM overseas is recognised here through those certificates the name of which escapes me at the moment…

    Not sure where the issue of inconsistency fits in here…

    by markjs on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:29 pm

  4. Bloody well beats me why Julia Guillard isn’t entitled to her opinion/belief about gay marriage, and it is absolutely nobody’s business why she holds that opinion. Has anyone considered that she may be considering the feelings of her parents or at least whether perhaps, she feels that to publicly deny that ‘marriage’ is between a man and a woman would upset her parents. She no doubt is quite comfortable to go along with civil unions for gays.

    by janice2 on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:30 pm

  5. DavidWH,

    My recollection of the upgrade was that the north bound lanes of the Pacific Highway were diverted through the Tavern drive-thru.

    by Darc on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:31 pm

  6. No green carnations growing in my yard either. C’est la vie.

    by MsAdventure on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:31 pm

  7. DavidWH

    Then there was the time he was main roads minister and also owned the Oxenford Tavern. When they upgraded the Pacific Hwy which would have taken people away from the tavern the upgrade included a spiffy off ramp and service road right past the tavern.

    He might be the guy I remember seeing on tv in the 1980′s. A road was sealed all the way out to some remote place and the tar seal stopped 50 meters past the entry to the ministers property.He was explaining to the reporter that is was all just a happy coincidience.

    by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:32 pm

  8. Darc almost. The diversion was pretty spiffy.

    by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:33 pm

  9. Hinze was pulled over by a cop for speeding one day. He got out of the car and opened up a map of Queensland and politely asked where the Constable wanted to be sent.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:36 pm

  10. Poroti I think that was Joe’s sons property but I may be wrong.

    There is no doubt much shonky stuff went on in the 70′s and 80′s but many of us pretended it wasnt happening because of the development created during that period. In hindsight we were remiss to ignore what turned out to be much worse than believed.

    by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:37 pm

  11. Space Kidette @SpaceKidette

    Hey ACMA how about insisting that Ray Hadley correct his claim the unemployment rate is 11% when it is actually 5.1%? #mediafail #auspol

    Hadley’s tactic (yes, I listened carefully to him this morning) is to first, at the outset, say that BOTH sides of government use the same flawed formula for calculating unemployment.

    Then he cites an alternative source, in the case of unemployment, the Roy Morgan unemployment index.

    The third stage is to simply assume that this formula is true. Its veracity not questioned.

    Next, he drops all references to “both governments” and refers only to the Labor government as being the cause of “11.5%” unemployment.

    The open line is then thrown open where his callers one by one lambast the Labor government for “more dishonesty” and “shonky figures”. Hadley does not correct them by referring to his original statement that both sides of politics use the same formula. He just lets them rant.

    After half a dozen calls he states that the only way to solve this “gutting” of the ranks of the workforce is to hold a new election.

    Then he plays one of his parody country music-style ditties, endless repeating the “There will be no carbon tax..” line from Gillard.

    Finally he comes back on the air just beofre the news break and says, “Yep.Get rid of this government, you get rid of the carbon tax, you get rid of unemployment. Why can’t anyone else see that this is the only answer?”.

    Cut to news break.

    Complaining to the ACMA about this would result in Hadley pleading it was a bum wrap, by virtue of his single, short statement, right at the start of the segment, to the effect that both sides of politics use the same formula. He plays the “No carbon tax…” statement endlessly, but only plays the truth about unemployment once, early one, expecting everyone – except the ACMA if they come calling – to forget he ever said it.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:38 pm

  12. Another one was the C-M publishing a picture of police directing traffic around people loading gambling tables into an illegal Valley casino.

    by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:40 pm

  13. Then there was the time he was main roads minister and also owned the Oxenford Tavern. When they upgraded the Pacific Hwy which would have taken people away from the tavern the upgrade included a spiffy off ramp and service road right past the tavern.

    They didn’t call him the Colossus Of Roads for nothing.

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:40 pm

  14. Aguirre

    I think this will be a great topic for discussion as soon as we get any confirmation from anywhere that it’s real. If it’s true, we’ll find out soon enough.

    I do think that chatter from ALP supporters is a major contributing factor to the impression of ALP instability.

    I agree, too much has been said and written and I wish it would end so the Govt can get on with it. I said on this site about 3 weeks ago that it had been confirmed to me independently of the media and by a person in a position to know, that something was happening. Of course, I was chastised for reporting it, and even labelled a stooge.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:46 pm

  15. bblackburnpseph@4507

    The high dollar is the primary economic challenge for this country at the moment and the government is doing nothing that might bring it down … the opposition don’t go on the attack about it because they have no barking clue either.

    What do you mean? This is probably the one area where the opposition DO have a clear and consistent policy – i.e. to cause our economy to tank so badly that the dollar falls to historic lows, thereby making it easier for their mining mates to sell our resources overseas.

    Okay, perhaps they wouldn’t put it quite as bluntly as that – but all the evidence points to it. Why else would they have Hockey as shadow treasurer?.

    by Oscar on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:47 pm

  16. Latika Bourke @latikambourke

    Treasury Sec Martin Parkinson 'I do think the whole mindset is a bit overdone. It's almost as if most Australians think we live in Greece.'

    by Space Kidette on Feb 17, 2012 at 2:50 pm

  17. Now that things are apparently “out in the open”, could a journo give a list of the KR supporters?

    by RNM1953 on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:00 pm

  18. Caught a brief glimpse of Mr Kohler on ABC. He was saying that for the average punter low government debt is not an issue.

    The issue is high personal debt and that this is making people antsy.

    I suggest this idea has legs.

    I was trying to remember during which governments we went from very low personal debt to very high personal debt.

    by Boerwar on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:01 pm

  19. RNM1953

    ‘The Australian’ did exactly that a week or so ago.

    by Boerwar on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:01 pm

  20. My dear godfather was a very senior Qld public servant. He always maintained that the most insidious corruption that was never brought to the fore was the granting of land or crown leases to themselves and their mates for peppercorn rent or less.

    I used to work in an old law firm in Brisbane circa 1990 (when the Fitzgerald commission was in full swing and all the dirty laundry was out) that had strong rural practice/connection. Each year at ‘Ekka’ time, the firm would throw a drinks/cocktail party for the country clients in town. The cockies would turn up, generally pretty ‘tired’ after a full day in the Cattleman’s Bar at the ‘Ekka’. Anyway, in the year in question, the organisation of the party had been delegated to one of the ‘city’ partners. During the evening, he addressed the crowd and informed them that they had a special guest for the night, a giant in Qld politics and a giant of a man. At this point, an electric ripple went through the crowd: “It’s Russ. Russ is here.” The lights went up and Gerry Connolly came out wearing an bean bag and telling some funny and filthy jokes. No one laughed and you could have heard a pin drop. I, of course, was quietly pissing myself on the inside and still do to this day. The ‘city’ partner was never asked to organise a party again. It is difficult to explain the fondness many people had for him, notwithstanding his ‘indiscretions’. No doubt some were beneficiaries of the whole system and no doubt some weren’t.

    People often forget it was Labor that introduced the so-called Gerry-mander in Qld. The Nats and Joh (simply) skewed it in their direction, big time.

    by Darc on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:07 pm

  21. I do think that chatter from ALP supporters is a major contributing factor to the impression of ALP instability.

    I suggest that ALP supporters reflect it. 99.9% of ALP supporters do not post. They might mutter over their coffee in the morning or grind their teeth in their sleep but they do not create ALP instability.

    Depending on your starting point Mr Rudd is THE major contributing factor to, not an IMPRESSION of ALP instability, but to real ALP instability.

    He needs the instability. That is why he has been running a destabilisation strategy. The instability shows that he is succeeding. All the rest: the froth and bubble of the MSM, we insignificant posters, the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst ALP supporters, are mere pale perturbations of the guy who is really is making waves.

    In your guts you know he’s….

    by Boerwar on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:07 pm

  22. Darc

    I take it you are aware of ‘the wife-in-the-gutter’ incident?

    by Boerwar on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:09 pm

  23. Dart surely you don’t think winning an election with 27 percent of the primary is skewing the result :)

    by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:10 pm

  24. BW

    I was trying to remember during which governments we went from very low personal debt to very high personal debt.

    If I recall, you might have to go back to the 90′s to find the last time that household debt was lower than household income.
    Hopefully, our economic correspondants might start mentioning that

    by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:13 pm

  25. Boerwar

    I was trying to remember during which governments we went from very low personal debt to very high personal debt.

    I’m guessing the one that oversaw the ratio of median dwelling price to household income increase 60% between 2000 and 2006 ? :)

    by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:15 pm

  26. Re Rudd
    _________
    This week the Murdoch press in Melbourne( Herald-The Sun)has had almost every day a large daily feature about Rudd/Versus Gillard
    Yesterday it was two full pages
    It samps all other news re politics

    by deblonay on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:15 pm

  27. Boerwar – 4616: don’t think I know of the incident. Pray tell.

    DavidWH – it’s a result and someone is skewed? :-) (how do you do those smileys?).

    by Darc on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:16 pm

  28. I did it! :-) One more time! :-)

    by Darc on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:17 pm

  29. Re 4620..I meant it”swamps all other news re politics “

    by deblonay on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:17 pm

  30. Darc it’s not really accurate as that 27 percent was only the National primary vote however they did manage to win over 40 percent of the seats.

    by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:20 pm

  31. Not that the “gay marriage” thing is worth the angst but let me get some of the thinking right regarding the PM’s position.

    *She has categorically stated she does not want to see a change in the current legislation. And, has done so for some time.

    *But, hey, wait a minute – she is a “unmarried lady with no children”, a left-winger who ought to be for gay marriage. I mean, when asked a question I can “see it in her eyes” she does not really believe at all.

    *Result: This allows people (to “tick” was the word used), the idea that she must be either lying, devious or somehow not being true to herself.

    Now folks, I can be as cynical as the rest but wait a minute!

    You mean because she looks as though she should support gay marriage she should??

    I am amazed that some self-admitted intelligent people here think that because the PM should fit into their stereotype and when it does not appear to be so, the stereotype has got it wrong.

    Talk about absolute pure subjectivity over reason. What a joke.

    by Tricot on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:21 pm

  32. Tony, what do you have to say about this “great big” and unessercary reasource tax ?

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/china-imposes-resource-tax-on-iron-ore-others-20120217-1tdjo.html

    China has raised a resource tax on iron, tin, molybdenum, magnesium, talc, and boron in a move aimed at conserving resources and curbing pollution, an official newspaper said.

    The tax rate for iron ore has been raised to 80 per cent from 60 per cent, while taxes for tin ore has been lifted to 12-20 yuan per tonne from 0.6-1 yuan per tonne, with the specific rate depending on grade, the Shanghai Securities News reported.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/china-imposes-resource-tax-on-iron-ore-others-20120217-1tdjo.html#ixzz1mbrioDjy

    by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:22 pm

  33. GG

    In the end the Homsosexual Lobby need to come up with their own name for their special kind of loving relationship.

    Are the ALP part of the Homosexual Lobby as their official policy is to recognise same sex marriage?

    by Diogenes on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:23 pm

  34. GWS have just released their club theme song. Hard to say, but worse than Freo by a mile.

    http://www.racingandsports.com.au/sports/rsNewsArt.asp?NID=239662

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:24 pm

  35. Tricot, hear hear

    by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:25 pm

  36. Darch

    I name no names, insinuate no insinuations.

    The incident involve wife falling into the gutter while exiting car.

    The punchline was, ‘Get out of the gutter you useless bitch.’

    The boyish charm, the effortless metrosexuality, not to mention the snaggish element, all speak of a different Queensland.

    by Boerwar on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:26 pm

  37. QLD politics again. It seems the invitation to Newman about today’s function has the date for Monday 20 February. It couldn’t be a dirty trick could it?

    by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:26 pm

  38. The suggestion is that GWS have more in the leadership group than points they are likely to get this year

    by shellbell on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:26 pm

  39. Diogs,

    A bit of a Clayton’s Policy imho. As I recall, parliamentarians are entitled to a conscience vote.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:26 pm

  40. I am convinced that the opposition doesn’t have shadow ministers. It just has areas of irresponsibility. BishopJ is irresponsible for foreign affairs, Scoot is irresponsible for immigration and Andrew Hockey is irresponsible for the economy. Tony Abbott has overall irresponsibility.

    by This little black duck on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:27 pm

  41. It’s still party policy and more than 50% of the party voted for it.

    by Diogenes on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:28 pm

  42. Http://ow.ly/I/sOQY

    by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:29 pm

  43. US defence secretary says ” no evidence of Iranian neucleur weapons
    ___________________________________________________In a clear refutition of the Israeli scare campaign the USA is cleary telling Israel to back of…

    http://www.aljazeera.com/video/americas/2012/02/20122170514625396.html

    by deblonay on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:30 pm

  44. David, that link did’nt work

    by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:33 pm

  45. Diogs,

    Indeed Parliamentarians being entitled to a conscience vote is Party Policy on this issue.

    It’s a bit like surveys that lose their actual credibility that start with, “If an election were held this Saturday”. There is no election this Saturday.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:33 pm

  46. Try again. This is the link to the letter and article.

    http://ow.ly/i/sOQY

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/storm-over-newmans-ashgrove-union-snub/story-fnbt5t29-1226273685193

    If that is correct then this is getting to the ridicuous level.

    by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:34 pm

  47. It’s the 70th anniversary of the bombing of Darwin this weekend.

    Does anyone know a good general history book about Pacific theatre of WWII?

    by Diogenes on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:35 pm

  48. Boerwar

    A bit of scary stuff from Prof Steve Keen at UWS.Being an economics expert on par with Joe I am not sure if he makes sense. Something seemed to happen after 1996 though ;)

    Household Debt—the final stage in an artificially extended Ponzi Bubble

    http://tiny.cc/ha49v

    by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:35 pm

  49. BW

    I suggest this idea has legs.

    I was trying to remember during which governments we went from very low personal debt to very high personal debt.

    Agree. Howard said we’d be the greatest nation of shareholders. Borrow money to buy shares. Wow, isn’t that a great idea. Work until you are 70 to pay off the bank for the over inflated house you bought because of the impact of negative gearing. But hey, I am rich! My house is worth a squillion dollars.

    It’s about time the ALP started hammering this from breakfast to a-hole.

    by Lynchpin on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:37 pm

  50. GG

    It’s also official ALP policy for all states (except NSW I believe).

    They must also be part of the Homosexual lobby as they are lobbying for same sex marriage to be recognized.

    by Diogenes on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:38 pm

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