Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Abbott cops a pasting over AS.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-criticised-over-asylum-seeker-comments-20120217-1tcs7.html
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:42 pm
GG, re the Abbott comments, it is interesting that on this issue, Abbott is out there making these tasteless comments rather than Morrison. Are we seeing The Positioning by Morrison?
by Lynchpin on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Diogs,
Your leaps of logic always fail to reach the other side.
Either a compromise along the lines of my earlier post will be reached or the proposed Legislation will fail. Then the policy will continue to sit on the books as an aspiration.
It’ll be the same as the old 3 mines policy. Didn’t make any sense but kept everyone happily unsatisfied for 30 years.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Lynchpin,
Good observation. Morrison is conspicuously nowhere to be seen or heard.
I suspect this is another dogwhistle which Morrison will have to clarify tomorrow.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:48 pm
It’s my belief that anyone’s belief on here ….including William’s…. that JG’s personal belief’s regarding SSM are “ridiculous”…or “beneath ridiculous”..
…………………………….…….is ridiculous………………..
by markjs on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:49 pm
It’s not too difficult to see the letter posted by LNPQLD is an invitation to attend an event at a different venue, on a different date and at a different time.
This morning’s event was The Gap High School.
Monday’s event is at Ashgrove Bowls Club in the late afternoon.
Maybe it’s as simple as someone in Newman’s office stuffing up or he wasn’t invited to this morning’s event.
by kezza2 on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Apparently there may be two invitations on 2 dates so I may have misled. No doubt Steve or myself will post further to clarify the matter.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Poroti 4642..re Prof Keen and prospect of massive depression
__________
Alarming as heis… has a great record as a forecaster…I read his forecast some years of ago the kind of crisis we face now
He believed the US banks would collapse…as they did in 1932..just as Roosevelt came to power..In 1932 he pegged the price of Gold then forbade it’s sale except to the Govt at the price of $32 an oz/
In effect seizing the gold held in private deposits in US banks
Like Kunstler in the UA today… Keen was always warning of the danger of a greater depression than 1929
Greece is a fortaste perhaps of what will happen across Europe.,after all we have already seen violent resistance and violence in London and Athens
by deblonay on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:50 pm
markjs,
Yes, it’s not rocket lettuce.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Well, the China Resources Tax article linked upthread:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/china-imposes-resource-tax-on-iron-ore-others-20120217-1tdjo.html
must be sending shivers up the spines of Gina and her mates. I’ve always thought that the real thing they hate about the MRRT is that once it got in here, it would make other countries look more seriously at the revenues they get from their resources.
And if China is doing it domestically, and given the influence they have now in Africa, it could start to make the miners arguments that they will go elsewhere look somewhat more hollow.
Wonder if Abbott will cop any questions about this at his next doorstop?
by imacca on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Dio
I don’t know if such a thing is out there. The Russians won the war against the Germans and the US won in the Pacific and made sure they kept Japan for themselves.
What has been written is mostly propaganda.
by CTar1 on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Diogenes @ 4641
You could try “Pacific Fury” by Peter Thompson.
I don’t know of any better and it is written from an Australian perspective.
http://reviews.media-culture.org.au/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2762
I had previously read books detailing particular campaigns such as Kokoda, but never had a comprehensive overall picture of events. This gave it to me.
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Diogs,
Biggles is probably at your level.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:58 pm
You’ve never read a book on WW2 in your life, have you CTar1.
by William Bowe on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:58 pm
imacca, it will pass un noticed if just left to the MSM. However, this is the first thing that the Prime Minister should mention at her next doorstop.
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Poroti, he is known as Dr. Doom or Dr. Death, or maybe both. He’s been predicting the end of the world since 2006. Enjoy:
I have more faith in Nessie than Prof. Keen
by The Finnigans on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:00 pm
David WH
My understanding is Newman was out jogging. The purpose of the meeting was to get the candidates of the various parties to commit to employment in QLD.
by Lynchpin on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:01 pm
GG, what logic. Diog has none.
by The Finnigans on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Keen predicted Sydney house prices would fall by 40% in 2008 and sold his own house for fear of the devaluation. He made a side bet on this and had to walk up mt Kosiosko when his prediction was wrong. He is a very minor academic who garners publicity by repeatedly predicting Götterdämmerung. Of course like the stopped clock that is correct twice a day, one of these days he will get it right.
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:02 pm
I’m glad someone went to the effort of pointing out Keen’s 40% prediction, OC. Couldn’t quite be bothered doing the requisite fact-check myself.
by William Bowe on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Finnigans
Snap
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Is there a Morgan today?
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:05 pm
The Finnigans
Where does he fit on the Nessie McCrann scale ?
by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:05 pm
William – I’ve read a few bits and pieces here and there. I need to discover ‘emoticons’.
Douglas was a great leader and saved the world.
by CTar1 on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:07 pm
ML
Only one saying unemployment is really 10% and the ABS is divorced from reality?????
by shellbell on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:07 pm
Have been reading back over the days posts and it is quite clear that most (posters, press and everyone else I’ve spoken to of late) has been infected with the ‘alarmist bug’.
Every event is bigger, more explosive and more significant than ever before.
Every whisper is louder, and more ‘substantial’ than ever before.
Posters, press and other commentators are making ‘unequivocal’ pronouncement on the merest of evidence (if one can call any of it evidence).
I seriously wonder at the mentality. At the lack of faith. At the level of vitriol. At the assumptions.
Today’s front page of the terrorgraph and Hadley’s statements are classic examples. 10 years ago I doubt whether either would have happened, let alone be believed.
My only hope is that when an election eventually occurs, my faith in the common sense of humanity will reign
by jenauthor on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:07 pm
I have noticed that the Labor government has turned into the TV series Revenge. There will be plenty of people knocked down,blood on the floor and colateral damage before this show ends.
Pass the popcorn
by rummel on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Lynchpin the confusion is whether Newman received both invitations or only the one for the Monday meeting. It’s not clear at present. Not hard to imagine the confusion when there is two invitation from union organizations for meetings in Ashgrove so close together. Let’s see how it plays out if at all.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Hmmm, i thought we dont touch on the look or appearance of politicians, just asking.
by The Finnigans on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Mod Lib,
Just for you:
http://blog.carconsumer.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/life_morgan_car.jpg
by Scarpat on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Oakeshott Country
A spectacular wRONg then.Obviously failed to take into account the ability of the “world’s greatest treasurer”‘ to handle the crisis
I’ll give him marks though for putting his money where his mouth was.
by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Diogenes Re Pacific war 4641
__________________
There is a whoie literature on the Paciific War
Australian books you may find of interest and informative
Gavin Long..”The Six Years War “a history of Australia’s actions in WW2
David Day’s two Biographies of Curtin and Chifley for the politics of the war in Canberra and his other book on Aust-UK relations “Menzies and Churchill at War” which looks at the disaster of Singapore and it’s prelude.. in the lies told by the UK to Australia
Keating once sited this book and was denounced for his”disloyalty “to Britain by the local Libs ,,in an argument about the fall of Singapore
Day has writen another book on the war but I don’t have it one hand. Anything by him is worth reading however
Brian McKinlay’s brilliant”Australia.1942-An end of Innocence” is a study of people’s daily lives in Australia under the threat of Japanese invasion
Several of these books are out of print but a good library will have them
There is also a whole stable of US books ,some in local libraries.. including .a very good Bio of General Douglas MacArthur(author of a later Kennedy bio)
McArthur was a looney. and a mad right-winger..hated Roosevelt and Eisenhower(they had a code name for him…Sarah Bernhardt..they saw his as a media tart)
Today MacArthur would be in the tea party..leading it !!
He called Roosevelt a communist.which would have amused Joe Stalin
..but the bio gives a good picture of US actions in the Pacific too.
by deblonay on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Though not as funny as the three stooges.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:11 pm
I’ve never seen so many posts in the one day from DavidWH. Must be the
glowingsucky rap he got from William last night. While meanwhile George has been driven from the blog by intemperate spite from Wm.by Cuppa on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:12 pm
davidwh,
The question will be, Is it contrived confusion?
Has the smell of a BS cover up. They always end up badly.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:13 pm
But the way it is being reported – just as appropriate.
by Scarpat on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:14 pm
deblonay,
Love your chutzpah!
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:14 pm
They dont call him the “Lizard” for nothing.
by The Finnigans on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:15 pm
I am sure veryone who served on the North Atlantic convoys (just to cite one example) wish they had been advised earlier Russia was going to do it all on its own. They could have stayed warm. And alive.
by roaldan1000 on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Re House prices and Keen
________
The Melb press has been reporting this week a fall in house prices in some cases in the 25% range varying from suburb to suburb..
.so in the long run Keen may be proved right !
What is happening now in Sydney and elsewhere ??
by deblonay on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Poroti, when wRONg is applied to someone else, it is just not the same with Diog’s wRONg.
by The Finnigans on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Here, for the benefit of Cuppa, are some of the reasons I rightly told George he had no right to call DavidWH a troll.
These comments were made for no other reason than that other commenters had expressed opinions he disagreed with. I’m not suggesting they are a fair and representative sampling of George’s contributions – they aren’t – but they are all things DavidWH would never have said in a pink fit. So I was entirely within my rights to observe that the specific accusation he advanced was truer of him than it was of the person he was accusing.
by William Bowe on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:18 pm
deblonay
With a special American issue called “The Three and a Bit Year War”
by poroti on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:19 pm
I’m getting a no-poll-today kind of a vibe from Morgan. Been wrong before though.
by William Bowe on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:20 pm
GG I stand by my initial comments that it was silly not to attend if he received the invitation and agree the letter for Monday could have been used to cover the error of judgement.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:22 pm
The Russians certainly needed these badly but on the ground they got to Berlin first – this scared the crap out of Eisenhower and much that followed in the 50′s can be linked to that.
Not the right blog for this!
by CTar1 on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Finns et al,
Don’t pick on Keen. He’s just as correct as every other economist/journo/astrologer.
by Darc on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:23 pm
[Scarpat
Posted Friday, February 17, 2012 at 4:11 pm | Permalink
Is there a Morgan today?
Mod Lib,
Just for you:
http://blog.carconsumer.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/life_morgan_car.jpg
Is that my Birthday present Scarpat?
Just ask Bilbo for my address so you know where to deliver it!
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:24 pm
The last Westpac survey I saw expected a 20% increase in Sydney house prices over the next 5 years, which is probably a little ahead of inflation.
Do you have a link to the 25% deflation? Our economy is in deep do-do if this is a consistent result. Articles I have seen reporting this in the past have tended to give examples involving Sherrifs and Mortgagees.
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:24 pm
davidwh,
I can accept that it may have been a cock up in his office.
However, the cover up will make the problem far worse for Cando because it will make him look slippery and dishonest.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 4:25 pm