Crikey



Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.

A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. So in summary the polls are locked in at a level that would see a 30 to 40 seat Coalition majority, with outlying polls from 5 months ago showing a 50 seat majority is within the realms of possibility.

    That would appear to be the case.

    But is there an election next weekend?

    by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:13 am

  2. does it take time for events to wash through, before they critically start to effect peoples thinking ?

    Most Australians start thinking about elections about 6 days before the election.

    by ShowsOn on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:15 am

  3. Same old, same old.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:15 am

  4. Got to be truly confusing, this what I see as media hate towards the PM.

    Pondering the idea of media hate towards Ms Gillard, maybe it is a female thing, maybe the press can’t handle the notion of a female, maybe having rejected her from the outset, they are no longer in their chummy comfort zone of rubbing shoulders and kissing cheeks and feeling great about their proximity and self importance.

    Cannot imagine apart from self interest whY they are so hostile.

    by crikey whitey on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:16 am

  5. I had no influence over a hungry bunch of plumbers… I was trying to watch 4 corners and I had to tell them to shush… the didn’t stop laughing at the Prime Minister… Sad state of affairs we find ourselves in…

    by New2This on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:16 am

  6. Did Possum do some analysis some while ago correlating interest rates to TPP?

    Yes while Libs were in, a 0.25% rate rise dropped the (Lib) primary by 0.5-1.0%.

    I read somewhere that internationally right wing parties vote correlates with interest rates and left wing parties with unemployment rates.

    by Diogenes on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:16 am

  7. Actually aren’t the Fibs only 4 points in front, unless those four points goes to ‘undecided’?

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:19 am

  8. Most Australians start thinking about elections about 6 days before the election

    well thats reasuring,
    on the monday before the election every body will realise that they do love their jobs and houses more than they hate Ms Gillard.
    Oh and that they have so obviously put great thought into the issue

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:20 am

  9. Had trouble tonight quietening a bunch of economists who were laughing at the Libs 70 billion dollar black hole and inept economics team

    by PAAPTSEF on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:20 am

  10. 54/46 is recoverable but it will largely depend on whether the PM can recover her lack of credibility. Tonight’s revelations won’t help and Gillard’s responses to the questions raised were barely believable. Does she really expect people to believe her staff were writing an acceptance speech and she was ignorant of that?

    by DavidWH on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:20 am

  11. Actually aren’t the Fibs only 4 points in front, unless those four points goes to ‘undecided’?

    I always thought that a 55/45 2pp split is a 5 point lead.

    You can’t really say it is a 10 point lead, because any movement in one automatically means a movement in the opposite direction to the other.

    by ShowsOn on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:21 am

  12. I had no influence over a hungry bunch of plumbers… I was trying to watch 4 corners and I had to tell them to shush… the didn’t stop laughing at the Prime Minister… Sad state of affairs we find ourselves in…

    admit it, you were at the blue oyster bar

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:22 am

  13. Actual question at a Quiz Night, what do you call a plumber?

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:24 am

  14. Whatever Mick… Company I worked for folded in 86… Company I worked for folded in 96… Manufacturing company I work for now… Come election day I wont forget.

    by New2This on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:26 am

  15. @puff/62,

    Plum Fruit?

    by zoidlord on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:26 am

  16. 54/46 is recoverable but it will largely depend on whether the PM can recover her lack of credibility. Tonight’s revelations won’t help and Gillard’s responses to the questions raised were barely believable. Does she really expect people to believe her staff were writing an acceptance speech and she was ignorant of that?

    yes but will they trust Rabbott any better, especially in running the economy ?
    Does Hockey fill you with any conifdence DavidWH ?
    Really ?

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:27 am

  17. Whatever Mick… Company I worked for folded in 86… Company I worked for folded in 96… Manufacturing company I work for now… Come election day I wont forget

    Nothing compared to your mate who gave us the double digit trifecta

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:29 am

  18. I think we could say that 55/45 is a ten point lead that at best requires five points turnaround providing that five points goes directly from Coalition to Labor. Any leakage to minor parties means you will need a bigger loss in Coalition primary votes than five points.

    by DavidWH on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:31 am

  19. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 32 (+2) L/NP 46 (+1) #auspol

    Will the msm continue to report the 30% PV?

    by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:31 am

  20. Showson,
    If there is a finite number of points and only two choices, as far as I can make out a 10 point actual lead is a 5 point effective lead. It gets a bit tricky if it is an odd number, say a 5 point lead. Let me think this through. I might need some help here.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:32 am

  21. Thanks Mod Lib
    I assume you are therefore a Liberal wet ala Petro Georgiou, Ian McPhee or Fred Chaney.
    I know Malcolm pretty well and he was a client of mine for a reasonable while and I could never vote for him as leader although he would be a pretty good Treasurer or Industrial Relations Minister maybe Foreign Affairs but not a Liberal Leader ever again.
    1 Malcolm is a totally self absorbed maverick and has been since his Sydney Grammar days
    2 he would be by instinct a Labor man but that would be a wee bit hard living in a mansion in Point Piper and with his and Lucy’s lifestyle don’t you think?
    No one colder ever see him relating to Eddy Average ala JWH.
    As for the polls no change at all since November in my view despite Barrie Cassidy and his nincompoops giving Labor a big win for the week. Gillard is toast it’s just a question of when this year because the rusted on against her is very large and the Lib base vote won’t go below 47 now and the election say 18 months away gets closer with each Newspoll etc. Combet or Shorten for mine if I was betting and both would be very hard to beat in any debate, showdown etc so I sincerely hope that Labor as per most Poll Bludgers urge stick with her till then.
    Agree with Bill more or less re poll analysis and the interest rate effect going forward.

    by stanny on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:33 am

  22. Once again …….
    _omen Leaders in Oz
    _______
    When I say this here I always get howled down…but the facts of Oz history show that woman leaders don’t win elections in this country
    What was that about those young plumbers…a fairly typical group of rather macho young males…might be signiificant in a funny way

    In a month watch Bligh(a good leader and very presentable)go down the chute and sink withour trace
    ..and Julia..???

    by deblonay on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:34 am

  23. So if it is 50-50 and there is a movement of 1 point it goes to 51-49. So if it is always in whole numbers than there cannot be an odd number of points difference.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:35 am

  24. Mr Rudd’s megalomania is doing severe harm to a good Govt and unless he is dealt with nothing will change..

    See this type of comment quite a lot here. Every criticism of Rudd is in absolutes/extremes and often irrational. Never seen so many psychoanalysts in one place.

    And what on earth is Rudd doing at the moment that is megalomania? Gathering up secret police, death squads, late night trials…..skulking around in shadows, building a super weather satellite aka Gold Member so he can blackmail the world?

    Goodness, if it were good government or leadership there would be zero speculation about the leadership.

    And a MP having aspirations to the leadership is their right, and if they happen to be particularly popular with the public, and the incumbent has been struggling for a very long time and had more than enough time and opportunity to turn things around, then they would be expected to have aspirations and testing the water.

    Wow, it was fine to knife Rudd on almost zero grounds, but not to consider leadership options for a struggling leadership.

    The fact of the matter it is not decided by PBs but the likelihood of the aspirant in regaining primary vote and winning an election. But of course as always the factions may prefer to protect their power and spend a decade in opposition. I think we know where their priorities are.

    by Thomas Paine on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:39 am

  25. Actual question at a club Quiz Night, what do you call a plumber?
    Actual answer:
    Turd Strangler.
    (The Chairman of the club was a plumber.)

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:40 am

  26. it’s just a question of when this year because the rusted on against her is very large and the Lib base vote won’t go below 47

    It will if they keep Abbott Hockey and Robb as their frontline team.
    Cant see the boardrooms of Australia having the stomache of allowing the three stooges to run the Nations Ecomomy.
    The mines of the Kimberlys are a long way from the Factories of Elizabeth or Geelong

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:40 am

  27. Puff

    I am at the caravan park.

    Lennie, my neighbour, told me yesterday of a poor fellow who is living in unintended squalor, clothes falling off him etc.

    Apparently has been in hospital recently, but no one knows what to do.

    Best thing seems to me to have him back in hospital to have an ACAT not be discharged until something is sorted.

    How to do this?

    Any ideas?

    by crikey whitey on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:40 am

  28. stanny
    Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 12:33 am | Permalink
    Thanks Mod Lib
    I assume you are therefore a Liberal wet ala Petro Georgiou, Ian McPhee or Fred Chaney.

    Soaking.

    (Damn Drew Carey’s “Whose Line is it anyway?”!!!! As soon as its over I’m really off to bed!)

    Puff:

    55:45 is a “10 point lead” and a “5% swing” needed….kapiche?

    by Mod Lib on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:40 am

  29. Puff it always adds up to 100 with roundings.

    by DavidWH on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:43 am

  30. @TP/73

    It is more likely the media is doing – not Rudd himself, the fact that he and Gillard hasn’t teamed up just makes things worse.

    by zoidlord on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:43 am

  31. When I say this here I always get howled down…but the facts of Oz history show that woman leaders don’t win elections in this country

    And we see this hatred here on PB almost every day. BTW, I’m assuming you’re a conservative man, which would explain the apparent glee with which you state this.

    Genuine progressive voters like myself OTOH are very happy with the govt’s agenda, and are more than comfortable with having a woman Prime Minister. I rarely give it a second thought.

    by confessions on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:48 am

  32. Mod Lib goodnight
    If your soaking Malcolms definitely your man.His business partners who he was very close to were Nick Whitlam, Neville Wran and Bruce McWilliam. I don’t think Malcolms politics were very different from them I.e Social Progressive and Right Wing economically.
    Not many like him in the Libs these days apart from a couple of Victorians like Greg Hunt etc almost none in NSw or Qld
    Evening

    by stanny on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:50 am

  33. Good night stanny…we need to reconvene and you can tell us more about MT and his inner demons, would love to hear more about (potentially) our next PM!

    by Mod Lib on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:52 am

  34. This is interesting: http://www.smh.com.au/national/a-third-of-asylum-seekers-to-live-outside-detention-20120213-1t299.html

    by rishane on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:56 am

  35. Stanny RE 81 Turnbulls your only hope.
    Abbott is unelectable

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 12:58 am

  36. Left field speculation, bi-election I’d love to see:
    Bentleigh (Vic)

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:01 am

  37. crikey whitey,
    Unfortunately it is possible he has refused assistance, maybe worrying that someone will make him move into a nursing home.

    You could start by calling Domicillary Care on 1300 295 673 and see if they can get involved.

    Also the local council may have some programs.
    It is not necessary to go into hospital to have an ACAT.  http://www.agedcareaustralia.gov.au/internet/agedcare/publishing.nsf/Content/How+to+access+help 
    The problem may be getting the person to accept help. Fear, pride and reluctance to accept the loss of function may create resistance. If someone they trust can point out they can get information about help to stay in their own place for as long as possible and it will be entirely up to them what they do, it may help to get them to talk to someone, like dom care. Pointing out that they paid for this already through their taxes and the govt would rather help them stay at home because it is the cheapest option, and that they have to get their name down on the waiting list early in case they need it later may help them to agree to an assessment. Anyone can make a referral for an ACAT assessment.

    It is a sad situation, and the coalition and the media scaring the hell out of the populace doesn’t help.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:03 am

  38. I’ve been watching Q&A……Senator Kroger is so dim….unbelievable…

    by briefly on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:11 am

  39. interesting talkback on Tony Delroy around Job security.
    This is a sleeper issue out there, and its natural labor territory.
    The three stooges have already denonstrated that they wont be able to provide Job Security, they favour less not more, they call that productivity.
    The Government needs to keep hammering this, eventually the economics will turn around the vote for labor.

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:13 am

  40. briefly

    I’ve been watching Q&A……Senator Kroger is so dim….unbelievable…

    just another unforgetable Victorian Fib

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:14 am

  41. Well, watched the 4C report and am having a hard time working out what the hype was about? The PM at least was interviewed, where Rudd seems to have been not interested??

    While its not good that JG was obviously evasive on the questions they showed, there really was nothing earth shaking there. If there were moves being made over two weeks to replace Rudd its actually not too surprising that she may have known something was going on. Being deputy PM and all she probably counts as a govt “insider”??.

    Yup no doubt the media and the Fib/Nats and Rudd cultists will assign it great significance. Meanwhile, looks like the Govt will get a vote on their Health Insurance Rebate changes tomorrow and are, as is their demonstrated nature, just getting on with it and implementing policy. Which is after all, what we pay them for.

    I’ve said here before that i really don’t expect the ALP’s polling to pick up to competitive levels till second half 2012, post Carbon Price and MRRT implementation.

    Still haven’t heard much about what Rudd would bring to the ALP leadership except a short lived “popularity factor” and lots of fun for the MSM in breaking him down ?

    by imacca on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:14 am

  42. 40% of Australian employees are on Casual or Part-Time rates, and growing

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:19 am

  43. Left field speculation, bi-election I’d love to see:
    Bentleigh (Vic)

    Is a bi-election one where voters get two votes each?

    by ShowsOn on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:19 am

  44. what would you call it

    by Mick Collins on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:23 am

  45. No. showson, it is where bicycles vote.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:30 am

  46. BRING BACK GUSFACE!

    by ShowsOn on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:41 am

  47. Mr Rudd’s megalomania is doing severe harm to a good Govt and unless he is dealt with nothing will change. It’s almost as if the public are waiting for something to happen…

    So if Rudd was to resign from parliament tomorrow, the the Government’s 2PP would immediately go to 56/44or so and Gillard’s PPM rating would go to whatever ahead of Abbott.

    If only………………

    I read some really strange stuff here from time to time. Mostly based around wishful thinking and fantasy.

    by scorpio on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:44 am

  48. Hi Crikey.

    Off to bed for me. Night all!

    Be kind to each other!

    by scorpio on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:50 am

  49. Police raids against journalists at Rupert Murdoch’s British tabloid The Sun were part of a “witch-hunt” that had left Britain behind former Soviet states on press freedom, according to an associate editor at the newspaper.

    Days before Mr Murdoch was due to fly in to reassure staff that he would not close the paper, associate editor Trevor Kavanagh said in an editorial that police were treating staff “like members of an organised crime gang.”

    “The Sun is not a ‘swamp’ that needs draining,” wrote Mr Kavanagh, who was political editor at The Sun from 1984 to 2005, a time when Britain’s biggest-selling paper boasted that it could swing election results.

    “Nor are those other great News International titles, The Times and The Sunday Times,” he added.

    h­ttp://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-13/the-sun-hits-back-at-27witch-hunt27/3827762

    That would be a “warlock-hunt”. Something about “swinging election results” remind anyone of the Murdoch Oz papers?

    by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:58 am

  50. The Guardian has a different take on the same story:

    Sun veteran Kavanagh launches covert attack on Murdoch – in The Sun

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2012/feb/13/sun-rupert-murdoch

    by This little black duck on Feb 14, 2012 at 2:13 am

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