Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
steve:
The Newspoll table from GWV has 50.9%….not sure what is going on there as they are both reliable sources usually.
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Gussie, hit the road Jack
by The Finnigans on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Conventional wisdom appears to be any outcome is bad for Gillard, in the MSM way where nothing can possibly go well for her. Their ‘logic’ is that if Labor does well then its all because of Rudd, and if they don’t go well its uh, a sign that Labor is doomed federally under Gillard. (Apparently Rudd’s campaigning failing in this latter case means nothing because he is Kevin Rudd.)
by rishane on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Pure Poison with scathing criticism of an ‘article’ at the Daily Smelegraph.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2012/02/17/dt-exclusive-government-providing-refugees-with-beds-and-coathangers/
by Cuppa on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Yes; just choose your prejudice.
by It’s Time on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:37 pm
If the Republicans want to keep talking about birth control for most of this year, Obama will win about 400 votes in the electoral college.
The general electorate is nowhere near as socially conservative on this issue as the Republican party base. If this issue helps Santorum win the nomination, it is all good news for Obama, because it is an issue that will not help the Republicans at all in the general election.
by ShowsOn on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Fiz:
I have no doubt he is politico du jour with the chattering classes (I count myself amongst them and long for the days when we had entertaining pollies) but I am not sure that sentiment is shared with the populace at large….could be wrong, so why not give him a run and see what happens on polling day eh?
Twill be fun no matter what happens!
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:38 pm
The whole Rudd in QLD election thing is a beat up. I expect little effect from him being there, but if any could be argued, it will be negative.
I think some QLD’ers might prefer Rudd to be PM, but his presence right now in an election reminds people of the federal leadership story and disunity, when they should be focussing on local issues.
I think that was the case in 2010, ALP lost all seats he campaigned in except his own. Hardly an endorsement of having him turn up in your seat. Why on earth would you vote ALP because the recently deposed PM, with a bunch of bagage of his own in QLD prior to him losing the job anyway, turned up and waved? They might wave back or even cheer him, but that’s it.
Anyway, if as expected Labor loses in QLD, pretty much based on “it’s time”, neither Rudd, nor anyone else will be boosted or lose. It will just be over and the Feds can focus on National issues, as they should.
by Leroy on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Mod Lib:
On this you are correct.
by ShowsOn on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:39 pm
by Mick Collins on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:39 pm
You sound like you are still crying about what he did to your lot in 1993.
by ShowsOn on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Your argument would hold in a compulsory voting environment (but in that case the Democrats would never lose).
In a voluntary voting environment, you can consider abortion like a snow plow….it gets you to the polling booth on time.
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating has shot up 15 points since April/May and his approval rating has gone down 6 points since July/September.
Assuming he wins Ashgrove, I think he’s going to come under a lot of pressure very quickly.
by spur212 on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:41 pm
I’m more than satisfied with that Newspoll result.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:43 pm
spur212:
you forgot 2 things:
1) He beats Bligh on both approval and disapproval
2) A majority of respondents have disapproved of Bligh since April
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Mick Collins,
Reminds me of this cartoon. http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2011/09/08/1226132/518441-110909-nicholson.jpg
{Peter Nicholson, The Australian, 09 September 2011}
by Cuppa on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:44 pm
TPP v PV. Don’t you just love OPV!
by This little black duck on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:44 pm
WTF are you going on about now?
The religious nutters will turn out for Santorum, but do you think there may be some women voters (Democrats and Independents) who quite like the idea of not having to pay extra for the pill who may head down to the polls if there is a nutcase on the Republican side who would take that away from them?
The Republicans will only stick to this issue if they have nothing positive to say about the economy. If they really think they can win an election on access to contraceptives in 2012, they are in dreamland.
by ShowsOn on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Just when you thought there is nothing scarier than PM Abbott, look what appears on the horizon.
http://wonkette.com/463952/sarah-palin-is-plotting-her-greatest-grift-of-all
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:45 pm
QLD looking like a wipeout, but it may be the Federal Labor’s tampa moment
NSW
VIC
WA
and now QLD
all L-NP. Not quite wall-to-wall, but 90% of the population under conservative rule in prospect. Could be a scary thought
So with a potential Federal L-NP led by Abbott, the risk quotient increases. For example, the GST brings in about $50b per annum at 10%. Abbott has a $70b black hole. An easy fix (with the friendly states on side) is increase the GST to 15% or more – very efficient, and subsidies to rich, aspirationals and rent seekers can be reintroduced.
And then there’s WorkChoices. with no State checks and balances.
by sprocket_ on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:46 pm
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8421517/blighs-a-fighter-paul-keating
by Leroy on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Mod Lib
1. He was made leader outside the parliament because he was miles ahead of everyone else. He no longer is.
2. I’m talking about him as Premier (assuming he wins Ashgrove) rather than the head to head contest with Anna Bligh of Ark
by spur212 on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:48 pm
I always get moderated on Crikey outside here, where William is an ace moderator, and think that it is probably to do with my firm views about Newslimited, which I believe, is a major democracy destroyer in this country.
Mind you, given the Murdoch form and it’s large pockets, Crikey is probably wise to be cautious. Though it was particularly gutless when it took down readers, already moderated comments, on Chris Mitchell in the rather unfortunately titled Quality Journalism Project, for which he was strangely included.
by joe2 on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:49 pm
*giggle*
I always find the term ‘chattering classes’ amusing. I try and imagine myself sitting around with my mother-in-law ‘chattering’ about politics. Are the chattering classes just people interested in politics, or are they people who are interested in different politics to Alan Jones and the Liberal Party? And what happens when I’m talking to my Liberal-voting neighbour? Am I the only one chattering or is he chattering as well? Can Liberals even chatter?
Sorry, but I come from a conservative Qld background and grew up with all those pat terms that are pretty much meaningless, but seem to mean a lot to people who like to listen to the likes of Ray Hadley and Alan Jones. Kind of like ‘latte sippers’ and ‘chardonnay drinkers’. Don’t know if you’ve noticed, but that’s most of the country – even here in Indi! (Oh OK, maybe it’s a Sav Blanc or even the increasingly fashionable riesling these days).
by Fiz on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Yes, Santorum will bring out the base but lose the independents. I was referring to Obama potentially drawing out the Republican base to support Romney when I suspect they are not planning to do that right now.
If it is Romney-Rubio vs. Obama-Clinton (as I suspect), the last thing the Democrats want is an energised Republican base because thats the only way they lose. If its Santorum or Gingrich Obama is safe. IMO anyway…
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:50 pm
rishane:
I think I concur with your view on how the Qld election result will be portrayed in the context of the Rudd/Gillard saga.
by Fiz on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Shanahan just stated on Lateline that there are three more caucus meetings coming up over the next little while and that he would be surprised if JG is not challenged at one of them.
These people have got to the stage where they are now believing their own BS.
by Darn on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:51 pm
The Duke does politics http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDQpZT3GhDg
by This little black duck on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Fiz: we have moved so far to the right and have become so rich the term is Champagne Socialists now (who drinks cardy these days?). Bolle or Veuve, btw, don’t waste my time with Moet…
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:52 pm
All polls taken indicate that Newman will win Ashgrove. Unless Jones can get her Primary vote within 2% it will be extremely unlikely that the ALP can beat Newman. A great analysis of this was done in this particular Antony Green Election Blog entry
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/02/how-should-reachtels-ashgrove-polls-be-interpreted.html
The most recent ReachTel Poll (link below) had the following figures:
LNP 49.2%
ALP 41.0%
GRN 5.7%
KAP 1.3%
ONP 0.7%
Others 2.1%
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/kate-jones-reduces-campbell-newmans-lead-in-ashgrove
using last election’s preference flows (approx 50% to ALP, 13% to LNP, 37% exhausted) we get the figure of Newman leading 52.4-47.6 or a swing of 9.5%
It is my opinion though that like the poll, the swing to Newman in Ashgrove will be above the swing across the state to the LNP and thus (on the Newspoll) figures be a comfortable enough win for Newman in Ashgrove
by aaronkirk on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:53 pm
steve @ 5092
42% + 4% = 46%.
So you are asserting the ALP can win with a 2PP of 46%???
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:53 pm
William:
Can we please have a Qld election/Qld Newspoll thread.
by confessions on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Well the Republican base isn’t very enthusiastic considering in most states the turnout for the primary is LOWER than what it was in 2008.
And Romney is a joke, How is he going to beat Obama when he can’t even put away Gringich and Santorum?
by ShowsOn on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Leroy:
I’ve often wondered that too. I sense Rudd’s appeal in Qld is overblown.
by confessions on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:57 pm
You seriously underestimate him. He has been campaigning for 5 years and has a pile of money (although it is drying up apparently) and is better this time around than last. Having said that, you are absolutely right the enthusiasm for this race is tepid at best, voter turnout is down (and he loses when turnout is good) and he is winning some of the states he won last time with LOWER vote share and total numbers this time around….all very bad signs.
Despite all that Romney is a serious challenge, whereas Santorum, Gingrich (and of course Paul) are not serious challenges.
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 10:58 pm
How many Christians will vote for Mitt?
by This little black duck on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:00 pm
depends….do you count Mormons as Christians?
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Diogenes, way way back asked about a good history of the war against Japan. Max Hastings in “Nemesis” covers the last couple of years very well, and includes a good chapter which is fairly critical of the Australian effort when they “went missing” in 43 and 44. It is well worth a read. I think it was somewhere in this book that I read wte the Russians lost more men fighting against the Japanese than the USA did. Plenty of food for thought.
by Michael Cusack on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Confessions we already have 2 QLD threads.
by DavidWH on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Denise shannahan on Lateline – quite unbelievable cant?…Wtte carbon tax is to blame for record employment levels
by Rossmore on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Well he will NEED a pile of money because Obama raised over half a billion last time. Which was something like $150 million more than McCain.
Obama spent 3 days in California this week at various fundraisers and raised nearly $9 million.
Most Evangelical don’t consider Mornmonism true Christianity.
How is that going to help Romney in a general election?
by ShowsOn on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:04 pm
@Confessions/@Leroy
I think Rudd will come to play after Bligh looses the election.
He’ll be in Opposition for 4 years, and next election will win it, because LNP cuts too many services (like they always do).
by zoidlord on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:04 pm
I agree, that is a major problem for him in the Republican primary (although probably less so in the General).
by Mod Lib on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:05 pm
The vast majority of evangelical protestants and catholics don’t. There goes a large slab of repubs.
by It’s Time on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:08 pm
More importantly, do the GOP voters?
as Willie says.
by This little black duck on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Rossmore @ 5134
Is that the same Lateline that I am watching?
On the Lateline I am watching, Shanahan was saying Abbott is getting away with that.
He was also saying that Abbott is better at ‘retail politics’ in that he points to examples of actual job losses at particular companies while the Govt is talking in the big picture aggregates that people don’t relate to as easily.
Shanahan was actually making good points that the Govt needs to address.
by bemused on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Bemused they have 51 seats at present and there are 89 seats in the parliament so they need 45 to form Government. The LNP is on 31 seats and needs to pick up 14 to rule in their own right.
Chatsworth ALP 0.1%
Everton ALP 1.4%
Broadwater ALP 2.0%
Cook ALP 2.2%
Barron River ALP 2.3%
Toowoomba North ALP 3.2%
Whitsunday ALP 3.2%
Southport ALP 3.5%
Townsville ALP 4.0%
Springwood ALP 4.1%
Cairns ALP 4.2%
Mansfield ALP 4.4%
Ferny Grove ALP 4.5%
Kallangur ALP 4.6%
by steve on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:09 pm
I know the value of a sample of one, but I had an interesting conversation with an acquaintance today. He is a fairly died in the wool Liberal voter who would occasionally consider not voting for them, he was polled recently (a couple of polls back I think, he can’t remember the organisations name) and told them he would vote Liberal, almost without thinking of his response. He told me that having thought about it he realises he would never vote for Abbott,for many reasons, but assumed he would not be leader when the next election arrives. I asked him if there were any circumstances where he would vote for Abbott and he replied that “I just can’t cop him”.
As I said, I know the value of a sample of one, and anecdotal evidence, but it raised a question in my mind.
by Michael Cusack on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:10 pm
hmmmm… the Garden of Eden in Missouri? Lots of very un-christian beliefs by the Mormons. Can’t see the evangelicals liking Romney at all.
http://www.secretsofmormons.com/mormon-beliefs.htm
by sprocket_ on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:11 pm
No, no, no … BARNABY is the retail politician.
by This little black duck on Feb 17, 2012 at 11:11 pm