Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
victoria,
yes, the independents votes are the most important votes, not the votes in caucus. I have yet to see any news reports or ‘leaks’ saying that the independents have been canvassed on which way they would vote if there were to be a change of leader. Until that happens and the independents confirm that they would accept the new Labor leader instead of withdrawing their support from the Labor Government all talk of a challenge is merely hot air.
by Scarpat on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:48 am
Darn
You need to learn to read.
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:48 am
Fess,
Thanks for the link. I can’t even comment on stuff like this, when you consider the confected outrage over setting up houses with basic items for AS.
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=719744&vId=
by kezza2 on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:51 am
Confessions
Thanks for posting Probyn’s piece. It does tie in with my perception of things.
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:51 am
Read and hear that KR has x numbers etc. May have missed it but are there any counter claims from the other side?
Does JG feel that it is not worthy of her attention? that ignoring it is best idea?that JG doesn’t think it helps govt?
Not sure except that all of the MSM noise is coming from 1 quarter.
JG’s style seems to be not to big note about things but to work quietly in the background and then suddenly something happens and people say where did that come from?
by RNM1953 on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:52 am
Morning bludgers
Hartcher in today’s SMH with typo correction
Kevin Rudd will become the leader, not because he’s made a compelling case but because (DELETE Julia Gillard cannot hold the confidence of her caucus) (INSERT) I say so as I need to write some shite to fill my column and justify my overblown salary.
Read more if you must: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/personality-over-substance-20120217-1tefa.html#ixzz1mgIKVfyX
by vote1maxine on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:52 am
victoria,
The whole thing only makes sense if you look at it from the view point that the MSM has no idea. They are chasing shadows.
I have no doubt now that some journos are being briefed. However, they are sitting there and accepting what is being told to them as true without confirming.
Any suggestion that caucus is strongly behind the PM is brushed aside as rubbish.
Why ? Because The journos have been told otherwise.
No challenge before the election, no challenge directly after the election. Where will that leave the MSM ? Will people really care any more ?
As others have said many times how often can the MSM cry wolf before people turn off completely ?
There will be no challenge.
by Doyley on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:52 am
Doyley
I will laugh hysterically, if what really does happen is another defection from the opposition benches
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:53 am
kezza2:
It is quite unbelievable. ANZ raises interest rates even when Reserve Bank puts them on hold, yet can spend a ridiculous sum of money on a cruise for a couple of hundred staff.
by confessions on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:55 am
Don’t be gullible. IF Rudd rolled Gillard, do you really think that the indies would suddenly find that Abbott had lost all of the negatives which he displayed when he was trying to woo them? Do the indies really want to scrap NBN, carbon pricing etc? Do the indies want to ignore their primary initial justification of avoiding government instability and go to an immediate election?
Sure they’ll play hard ball and squeeze some more concessions out of a Rudd government but they’d sign up.
The strongest argument against a Ruddstoration is that it would destroy the credibility of the Labor Party in the eyes of many of its supporters and potential supporters.
by It’s Time on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:56 am
confessions
The ANZ story is on the front page of the Herald Sun.
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:56 am
I can’t see why Darn needs to learn to read. I get the same message from this and it is BS.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:57 am
victoria,
You really wouldn’t want any of the MSM guarding dangerous prisoners would you ?
They would wake up one morning and the jail would be empty !
I am a huge star trek fan. There is a race of beings called the borg. They act and think as part of a collective with no independent thought process.
The MSM in Australia are a bit like the borg.
by Doyley on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:59 am
Gary
Thank goodness the footy is back in town. What a welcome distraction!!
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 9:59 am
confessions
Thanks for the link to Probyn. Excellent summary IMO.
by lizzie on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:00 am
Doyley
Good one! Great descriptor!
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:00 am
So 40 caucus members have told Shana they are now supporting Rudd and plan to move in March. Yeah, sure.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:00 am
victoria:
Good to see the Herald Sun has chosen an actual news story for its front page instead of this ridiculous Ruddstoration rubbish!
by confessions on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:00 am
lizzie
How is your OH?
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:01 am
In response to Rudd’s reported number of supporters in Caucus.
by confessions on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:02 am
That’s for sure. At least the footy writers tend to write the facts.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:02 am
confessions
Now that the footy is back, even though only the preseason Cup, the Herald Sun will be busy filling its pages with football news.
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:04 am
Victoria,
I agree with you that all this hype and bluster makes no sense and therefore I’m starting to think that msm and the Ruddistas are being played like violins. I don’t see any signs of discomfort among Labor’s front bench so I wonder if this isn’t a ploy to draw the termites out into the open so that the “leaking” that occurred during the 2010 election doesn’t happen again in 2013.
by janice2 on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:04 am
And on things from the Wild West – not ONE reference I could find about the so-called “leadership” issue in the West Oz this morning. Sure, Probyn wrote a good piece yesterday, but it is not of burning interest here.
On the local stuff William raised earlier, with reference to Bob K making a comeback in Mt Lawley, I beg to differ.
Alan Carpenter chose unknown boys and girls from the Labor Backroom in some seats. One of whom fronted up in my electorate – Mt Lawley. While the Liberal candidate’s name was known for weeks as he took the simple expediency of getting a large side with his name on it and parking at a busy corner – I doubt if anyone could have named her. I was not aware of any campaigning she did.
The electorate is made up of a lot of older people and they knew BK. In its wisdom Labor dumped him to their cost. Or, should I say, Carpenter, to get “new blood” in, was happy to off-load the likes of BK.
If I remember rightly, there was a boundary change which would have made winning a bit harder for BK but not impossible.
Mind you, I think the same may apply now but let’s not kid ourselves – Labor/Carpenter ineptitude cost them the seats of Morley, probably Mt Lawley and possibly Fremantle.
To think they could still have been in office.
Apologies to others not in WA for this local stuff.
It did not happen
by Tricot on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:04 am
Gary
Well I would agree more factual, but not always the full facts. But hey, at least I am entertained by footy news.
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:06 am
I agree “It’s Time” the indies are all hot air. Katter would also sign up too if it was Rudd. As far as losing support not sure. A vast majority of people i speak to hate the PM, a lot are labor voters. Do they prefer Rudd? probably not, but at 30% you are seeing hard core labor vote- they would vote for Humphrey B Bear if he was labor. The key is in the next 10% who i believe are more Rudd friendly.
by centaur009 on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:07 am
Gary
Ummmthe ACTUAL agreements are available – do a google search They are signed by Gillard on behalf of the ALP, not by Julia Gillard herself.
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:09 am
victoria
Hi.
OH had a “clear day” yesterday, first for 10 days,which has made him feel more optimistic. GP is pursuing the idea that a medication may be a factor – a change of brand by chemist, or something. When you’re desperate for an explanation, anything seems possible!
by lizzie on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:09 am
I bet the Queensland ALP is thrilled about all this Ruddstoration talk. Wonder if Rudd has any friends there at all.
by Mithrandir on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:09 am
Good Morning, Bludgers.
The best ‘monstering’ of Rupert I’ve read in a long time The old monster Rupert Murdoch finds his elixir with his back against the wall
TLBD wrote: “dubiety”? Now there’s a word! “doubt”, anyone? I think they mean “apprehension” but, hey!
But hey! Now books are published online, editors are no longer counting the cost of printing ink and demanding ‘succinct’ (brief, compact – characterized by clear, precise expression in few words; concise and terse) unless, of course, one’s a high selling author: the longer the book the more the publisher charges?
Dubity means 1. A feeling of doubt that often results in wavering. 2. A matter of doubt.: a 6 letter word. Uncertainty (not nearly as concise) has 11 letters, and apprehension, not an exact synonym , 12. Multiply additional letters by the print-run (say 20,000): that’s a hellava lot of wasted ink for a word of less connotative strength.
I learnt to use my first (then hard-cover only & costly) Thesuarus after a lecture on printing ink’s cost! I learnt my last such lecture (this century) for ‘pedantic punctuation’. (“Semicolons use more than commas, you know; colons less than full-stops followed by capital letter” (true story!). NB, also learnt “use learned‘ only as in my learned friend” that learnt (correct UK) saves ink in an Ed conf paper all attendees get. Save ink also cured me of most in/definite articles; the … of the … (ie the hair of the dog) instead of the …’s ….; multiple adjectives, adverbs etc. BTW ink costs explain the recent reversal of “‘…’” to ‘”…”‘ Normal “…” marks are far more frequent than quote-within-a quote ‘…’.
Top UK papers have huge print runs. Imagine how much ink succinct saves. The Guardian’s etc investigative research is one reason we prefer them to OO/Fairfax; the other is that they write literate English for a literate readership.
by OzPol Tragic on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:09 am
Janice
I reckon there is some strategy by Labor in this. How on earth did they manage to hold minority govt, pass difficult legislation, and despite getting Wilkie offside, get his important vote on the PHI and ABCC. Is this really the work of a shambolic party? I am pissed with Rudd for being a full blown egoist, but there are some machinations behind all this. There must be, otherwise they are all nuts!!!
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:09 am
You say that but there is no proof of that. Katter has his 20 point plan and expects a leader to follow it.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:10 am
Rudd would get a bounce in the polls for a minute and a half, as Richardson says. Then all those that hated him will remember why they did.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:11 am
lizzie
Hoping OH has more clear days to come. Medication could well be a factor. If it is safe to change, might be worth doing.
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:12 am
OPT
Are you able to share your thoughts on Qld election? Thanks in advance
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:13 am
And one more thing on the “leadership” stuff – as many have mentioned………If Rudd should get back just what narrative will he and/or Labor have?
The only one I can think of is: “Look guys….we made a bit of a mistake in 2010. We thought we would give JG a run to see how she goes. Well, it looks like you guys – especially the media, Queenslanders and conservative voters would prefer Kev back. Okay, as he looks to be the popular call, at great expense to ourselves (that is the destruction of a credible, viable government) here he is!”
Labor, if they tried this, deserve not to be taken seriously until serving about 2 terms in opposition until they got their ideas sorted out.
I have always been impressed by the fact that the current Labor crop seems to have a few brains. On the other hand, maybe there are a few who are tired of the political life. Who knows?
by Tricot on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:14 am
If I were a Govt MP in a marginal seat:
1) on polling today I will lose my seat. Can govt change things around in 18 months time?
2) change to KR. Apparently much more popular than JG. Will MSM tear him down? How does govt counter Abbott’s line ” Govt is a rabble. If you can’t govern own selves how can you govern the country?”
I would stay as is.
June 2010 while looking as if ALP is unstable can in the long run be portrayed as a one off.
If change again, will be tarnished for the future as unstable.
If an MP I would see it as maybe a 1 term loss vs out of office for 3 terms.
by RNM1953 on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:16 am
Vic, well said.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:17 am
victoria
That also sums up our political situation.
Not safe, not worth doing
by lizzie on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:18 am
lizzie
Touche’
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:19 am
The ALP have a stack of achievements that have occurred over the past 6 months and that is what the electorate will eventually see when the election comes.
The average joe blow doesn’t give a stuff about leadership debate and the more the MSM go on about and it doesn’t happen the more irrelevant they become.
Can Dennis Shanahan sign a document that should the challenge not eventuate in March as predicted that he will disappear up his own #@%.
by Kirky on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:20 am
Gary
Are you Richmond supporter?
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:20 am
Kriky
Yes JG is not popular in voterland, and as things stand, the ALP is on track to lose the election next year. Apart from Rudd wanting the job back, why does the MSM want a leadership change so desperately. They are even more desperate than the coalition.
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:22 am
I was once when I was a kid but changed to the Maggies and have supported the pies ever since.
I like you Vic, just not your team.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:22 am
Do you really think that Kate Jones would have invited Rudd to campaign VERY actively in Ashgrove if he had no friends?
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:23 am
Victoria,
I agree. It maybe my suspicious mind, but I reckon the government has had a gutfull of Rudd blabbing in the enemy’s ear and helpfully causing msm to focus on crap instead of reporting the positive achievements of the government. They are out to force Rudd into the open, together with his handful of supporters, where he can be effectively neutralised before the 2013 election looms.
by janice2 on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:23 am
Gary
My team? You mean the Blues/Hawks. I do love Buddy Franklin ever so much.
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:23 am
janice2
Agreed
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:24 am
I still believe all of this is an attempt to destabilise the government before the carbon tax and other reforms take place. It just makes sense.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:25 am
The Hawks are fine. No probs there.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 10:26 am