Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
vexnews @vexnews
Kevin Rudd dodges leadership questions while eating dumplings on state election trail #auspol http://bit.ly/z1mqJp
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 12:54 pm
If I ever need a lawyer, I know which one I’ll pick.
Abbott could get his second MP off in a few months.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/mp-child-porn-case-could-be-dropped/story-e6frea83-1226274281272
by Diogenes on Feb 18, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Hey, speaking to the journos gives me an idea for a tweet if any interested.
If Rudd has anywhere near the caucus numbers as he has journo numbers, he might be a chance.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 18, 2012 at 12:55 pm
SK
The dumplings are VERY important
by lizzie on Feb 18, 2012 at 12:56 pm
I personally find it more interesting and challenging discussing with a diverse group even if the majority hold different opinions to you. You don’t learn much from people who hold the same views as you.
by DavidWH on Feb 18, 2012 at 12:56 pm
SK
As a Qlder, does the idea Rudd is challenging to be PM again, helpful to Bligh?
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 12:59 pm
The heading of Ross Gittin’s article in the Weekend Business section of the SMH could just as well apply to the political journalist cabal:
by Scarpat on Feb 18, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Oscar @ 5607
Oscar, that misrepresents the facts.
In summary:
An angry and abusive Frank returned from his holiday and within 20 minutes William had to send him off on another holiday.
William also posted that it would be good if some of the “angriest haters” who drive others away, chose to post elsewhere.
George and William traded a few comments and George did a dummy-spit in what I thought was an over-reaction.
William made it clear to George he does not classify him as among the “angriest haters”. Neither do I and I hope George returns.
I share Williams views on the “angriest haters”. They continually throw abusive tantrums and add nothing positive to the blog. There is nothing “left wing” about such behaviour and it is more a characteristic of the right.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 12:59 pm
My beef with a change of leadership is not that it is Rudd or anyone else. It’s the timing and the reasoning behind it. Now is not the time and there is no argument that can be made or has been made to indicate how it would benefit Labor now or more importantly at the next election. That’s not to say there maybe a time into the future where such a course of action is needed.
It’s with that in mind that I too would finish with Labor if such a change or even a challenge takes place within the next few months. I have decided that a party that can’t think through such basic strategic moves deserves opposition and, given the polling over the last couple of years, Australian’s will deserve to have this ugly opposition we have now as their government.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Not a very persuasive argument when you consider that this describes Abbott and co. before the last election and they lost it be a hair’s breadth.
by It’s Time on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:00 pm
I want all the progressives back; the only ‘balance’ at the moment is KR v JG and that merry-go-round is getting tedious.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:00 pm
GD
i notice you have a new gravatar. GD?
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Coalition will have a big great wind back in Policies…..
Thankfully I’ll be at UNI, so I don’t have to put up with @TP’s whinging about the Coalition.
by zoidlord on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Another interesting feature of the current climate that isn’t getting mentioned much is the disconnect between what’s getting done and what is seen as worth reporting about in the Press Gallery. We’re getting all these laws passed that are going to affect people and the economy, and what’s the source of all the reportage this week? One interview on Four Corners. Its like how the news story of the ALP conference was that Gillard didn’t pay sufficient homage to Kevin Rudd/Poochie.
by rishane on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:01 pm
TT, I can’t argue with that.
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Bemused,
William posited you as one of the “angry haters”. You should not be so modest.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Puff
For me it is not Rudd vs Gillard. It is as Gary says at 5653. Rudd whiteanting and causing destabilisation now is wrong. In the second half of the year, if it is deemed that Labor is not cutting through the electorate, perhaps they need to change strategy, but Rudd popping his head up now is a disaster. Unless, the party are drawing him out now rather than wait for him to make his move later on, when he can do more damage to team Labor
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:07 pm
lizzie,
It is hilarious.
On the PB front. I used to PB and tweet. But it got to be very time consuming and as I don’t have to follow on twitter, I can jump in and out as my time allows, and as a result I spend more time there, though I do lurk on PB as much as I can.
But more often than not, when I do, it is certain individual’s baiting and haranguing others, and to be blunt, I am choosing to go to twitter because I am sick of people playing the man and not the ball.
Which is all a bit unfortunate because I consider many here to be friends, not just fellow posters.
I have made more of an effort to be on PB of late because I see it as being in decline, which is a shame because (whether WB likes it or not) it is the last bastion of left wing voices in a sea of Right Wing media bullshit.
If I could ask one thing of the people on this site, it is to keep the comments on the point under discussion and put personalities aside.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Gary
But who would you vote for instead? Or would you just vote informal.
by Diogenes on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:07 pm
My theory on the Rudd/Gillard thing is, as long as Rudd is the only viable alternative, Gillard is safe.* If I was a Labor MP determined to get rid of Gillard, I would be looking to collect support for somebody like Stephen Smith or Bill Shorten.
While, yes, the threat of support withdrawal of independents is a factor, if necessary a new leader could easily negotiate for their support.
*And no, it’s not because he is some hero who scares the hacks. I think some people underestimate how disliked the man actually is, among the Labor base and in the partyroom.
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Yep getting the CEF act through a hung parliament, raising the TFT to c20k. Getting the MRRT tax trhrough, as with the HIR, putting in a national disability insurance scheme, and the most treacherous of all dismantling of the ABCCC.
How dare that “sleezy red-headed bitch” detroy the Labor Brand by implementing very labor policy, eh Paine buddy ?
Especially that last bit, eh ? real nasty stuff of that “red-headed bitch” to do that sort of IR stuff eh ?
Only a Party founded out of industrial desputes would pull that one on us eh Painey ?
by Mick Collins on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:12 pm
What a gutless copout. Sacrifice the powerless, the disadvantaged, the struggling, the needy and those who aspire to social justice on the alter of politics to make your own empty, selfish point.
How many coalition voters are prepared to hold their noses and vote for an Abbott led party? And you lot aren’t brave enough to do the same thing for your own side? With supporters like that, Labor doesn’t need enemies.
by It’s Time on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Call me old fashion naive but Labor if they have a soul owe Julia Gilliard one. That is she leads to the next election win or lose.
by Dr John on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:12 pm
I would be quite happpy for the Queensland election to be seen as a proxy for the campaigning effectiveness of Mr Abbott and Mr Rudd.
A clear result either way should mean that at least one of our two rotten apples would be consigned to the dustbin of history.
I don’t much care which. Their personality defects are roughly similar.
by Boerwar on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Carey,
Excellent point. IMHO if they serious consider JG to be in trouble, going to Rudd would be the last thing you’d do.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:13 pm
my say @ 5618
I am sure george will return.
I think he just felt the need for some time out.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:14 pm
And that’s not an endorsement for that course of action. As far as I am concerned, Labor is damned no matter what it does. If anything, perhaps they should keep Gillard to prevent anybody else’s political career from being ruined.
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:14 pm
So there is nothing more on #Libspill; wishful thinking our part or is there really rumblings in the ‘hood?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:15 pm
its time
I agree 100%
just cos the MSM is spooking the chooks, dont mean everyone should turn into chicken littles
by gusface on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:15 pm
MC
Why would anyone start a polemic with the phrase, ‘In all honesty…?’ Wass gibst?
by Boerwar on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:15 pm
If there is, it may be in the reported rally to shore up support for Gillard. Even the Rudd side concede the best they can get to is 40 votes and that Rudd will do a Keating: go down with a respectable loss, retire to the backbenches and wait for Gillard to fall over before launching a second challenge.
It the report is serious, the purpose of the rally may be first to flush Rudd out and secondly to ensure that he gets as few caucus votes as possible. If it’s nearer or below 20, Rudd will be humiliated over the move.
He has little in common with Keating, unless like Dare you believe that he alone solved the GFC, but all the failings were at the insistence of Gillard and Swan. He wasn’t a despot at all; they bullied him!
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:17 pm
CM
I suspect Shorten is next in line, but he does not want a poisoned chalice.
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:17 pm
DavidWH @ 5649
Unfortunately comrade, there are too many here who prefer an echo chamber. Not only that, but an echo chamber entirely cut off from external reality which they are unable to confront.
Personally, I find I get a better and more civil discussion of ideas with people like you and Mod Lib than I do with many here who purport to be ALP supporters. As a long term ALP member I find that disturbing.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:17 pm
BoerWar – Or ‘Bludgers seem to think …’.
by CTar1 on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:18 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:18 pm
In terms of who has done the most damage to Labor the critical issue is the timeline and what you regard as ‘damage’.
Would you start from when Mr Rudd started to whiteant his precessor as Foreign Minister?
Would you start with when the NSW Right turned into a work-for-life sinecure of unbounded political cynicism?
Would you start when the red greens, nimby greens and values greens deserted Labor to form their own party?
Would you start with the open global market reforms of Mr Hawke and Mr Keating?
by Boerwar on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Puffy @ 5655
Who do you call progressives? There are plenty of progressives here.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:20 pm
SK
Agreed. We should express our opinion the issue at hand, and not get personal.
Perhaps we need some of your bubbly personality around more often to cheer up the place!!!
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Diog
When I saw in the Advertiser this morning that our MP with child porn problems could, with Michael Abbott’s help, get off I was just about sick. It prompted thoughts of my anger at the Eugene McGee case.
by BK on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:21 pm
GG @ 5560
Must have been in your parallel universe. I don’t go there.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:22 pm
5560
5660
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:22 pm
BK
If he gets off or gets no conviction recorded or a conviction which doesn’t disqualify him from sitting in parlt, it will be interesting to see if the Labor party take him back.
I suspect not.
by Diogenes on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:23 pm
puff
seems not
the fibs collectively seem to have no spine (aside from being lazy,liars and general dilletantes)
letting he-man run the course seems to be the option
by gusface on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:23 pm
BK,
The thought of him getting off is sickening but I’m keeping my fingers crossed the judge does his job.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:24 pm
BB 5469 – Nice story and yet the media wonders why things like cabinet in confidence and commercial in conference for even when the media have the facts they still put there own spin on a story.
The media have form on miss reporting a story or even taking the facts and creating a story by merging two difference stories into one.
There are some great journos but sadly the media should be treated with cynicism, this applies as much to the fairfax media as it does to news limited.
I find it bemusing that with the world of excellent media from the big boys of the BBC & CNN and the other media yet so many stories are not reported or are only half reported.
Europe is a good example, yes the southern nations are struggling but why is our media ignoring the solid conditions of the northern parts of Europe.
In recent weeks both the WSJ and Bloomberg have reported that in Asia moves are on to increase and improve wages and conditions yet our media don’t bother to report it.
Indonesia is preforming well yet the only story to come out of Indonesia in recent years relates to boats.
Is journalism with 24/7 coverage that hard compared to years ago.
Out of fairness to the media there have always been elements that are rumor based with a focus on muckraking.
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:24 pm
The 1012 Republican platform in brief.
by BK on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Sk agree
But lov tweetin g but got cold feet
I think the tweeting will take over from blogging
But one thing about tweeting you cannot have it deleted
What i would like todo would be tweet news items and great aeticles
With out actualy commenting is that possible
Buti was a bit concerned about the email addresses ,are tney only seen by ones self in the
Your account area.Tweeting is like the old park podiums to me’
Hints please
by my say on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:25 pm
j and sk
Stick around. The real fun hasn’t started yet. So far lefties have a choice between sticking the head in the sand, hunkering down in the trenches, or doing forlorn hope.
When the Sarajevo moment arrives then it will be time to go over the top, hold fire until you see the whites of their eyes, hold out until the last person…
…or sauve qui peut.
by Boerwar on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:25 pm
What utter rot. Has it ever occured to you that its because the vulnerable will end up having to carry the can (in the most extreme way) should an Abbott Government eventuate, that I am starting to come to this position. A Party that seems so intent to capitulate, and hand Government to the Opposition (and thus tear down all that hard fought for reform), is not a party worth fighting for.
If they’re not going to fight for them selves and stand up for what they belive in
Then why should I fight for them ?
by Mick Collins on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Carey Moore @ 5664
Great to see you back Carey. I had noticed your absence and was hoping all was OK.
Yes, that’s why ALP MPs want him to attend functions in their electorate and when he does, tickets are sold out in a flash and he gets a rock star reception.
If only I could suffer from such hatred!
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 1:26 pm