Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Sums it up beautifully Mick.
by Darn on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Don,
Don’t agree with you. Nobody deserves personal criticism. Debate issues till the moon turns blue but there is NEVER and excuse to play the man.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Don,
Don’t agree with you. Nobody deserves personal criticism. Debate issues till the moon turns blue but there is NEVER an excuse to play the man.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Familiar with the phrase “fair weather friend”? Another person who has no grounding principle but deserts when things don’t go the way they want.
It’s time a lot of Labor supporters here had a good hard look at themselves.
In ya guts
Ya know he’s nuts.
by It’s Time on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Further to Victoria’s comment if Europe continues to struggle and the U.S splatters along then I expect that interest rates will be lower in six months time than they currently are.
Regardless of the silly commencement to a balanced budget in 2012-13, It would be good for the government to expand its infrastructure spending
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:17 pm
SK:
(sigh!)
Ok, criticism of the post, of the issues, whatever, for crying out loud.
by don on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:17 pm
William,
I apologize if you believe I have misrepresented you, but I don’t think I did. I will see if I can find your original posts and check.
William, I am simply flabbergasted. Are you really that naive?
Honestly, William … do you really believe this tripe?
by Oscar on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Sorry Bemused,
But there are other parties in Australia, including independents. And under the constitution in Australia, I am free to vote for any of them, or none.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Victoria
Rudd’s presence is a plus for Bligh. Like it or not he is popular here in Qld. He is known as a good campaigner.
I imagine that the group of MPs moving towards Rudd are those in marginal seats. They think he can win.
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Darn,
Australians would prefer an incompetent meglomaniacal micro manager who promises things and then drops them at the first sign of grapeshot. Courage and perserverance are to be discouraged and any thought of acting in the interests of electors goes no further than the next photo opportunity.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:19 pm
So we have one poster with sources say a challenge isn’t on (Leroy, I think?) and then another (whose name escapes me at the moment) says a challenge is on.
Sigh.
I will never forgive Rudd if he does it. If what the journalists say is true, that he’s campaigning behind the scenes, then he is putting his ego before the good of his country and party.
For someone who was a huge fan (I donated to Kevin 07, even have the t-shirt), I’m now just completely sick of him, have been since his Q & A appearance last year. Arrogant, smug twit.
#Sorry, had to vent#
by vitalise on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:19 pm
This was always what they were going to say when it looked like Rudd had a realistic chance. They’re worried that all this focus on Gillard’s alleged duplicity will make Rudd a martyr and a vote winner. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if their internal polling is telling them that.
by Darn on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Mick Collins @ 5783
Well that’s odd, I thought there were 71? ALP members in the HoR who together with one green and 3 independents made up a majority to support a minority ALP Government.
That is utter rubbish and the last line of defence mounted by those who blindly support Julia Gillard. There is no certainty it would result in an instant election and I do not believe it would. I agree with Mike Carlton on the subject of JG. She has proven to be hopeless in the repeated errors of judgement she has made. It is as if she campaigns against herself.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Voters have a long history of electing those that stand for something and as long as it is a sensible policy, then they keep being re-elected.
Gillard has a proven record of outcomes, Rudd is known for flops
sorry but Rudd would not win in 2013
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:22 pm
If the assertion is that all of the businesses and corporations are against Labor and won’t allow them to win, then how did they win in 2007?
Don’t forget that 95% of the media publications in the country backed Rudd for PM in 2007.
by gloryconsequence on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:22 pm
dtt,
Rudd was so popular in Qld that his personal seat swing against at the 2010 election was 10% and elsewhere in Qld it was about 6%.
Any more popular and he’d be able to plot and hold his leadership coup meetings in a phone box. Oh, that’s right. He already does.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Oscar, about two pages ago, you exposed yourself as a vile traitor to the Labor cause. You supported the assertion that you were through with Labor if the “Ruddstoration” went any further. In other words, you’re quite happy to trash the principle of working class solidarity and actively assist Tony Abbott in becoming prime minister so he can turn back the clock to the dark ages, simply because you can’t get your way. This is because, as any idiot can see, you aren’t really a Labor supporter at all, but a conservative provacateur and a troll.
Of course, this isn’t what I actually believe. But it isn’t any different at all from your own nonsense.
by William Bowe on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:23 pm
vitalise
His Q&A appearance last year turned off my whole family. my mother was funny. Imagine an older woman with an italian accent. Saying Wtte. “I dont like the way Rudd talking tonight. Makes me sick”
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
thanks for the link to Peter Lewis’ stats on policy approval among the voters. His suggestion that it needs to be sold has been stated here often enough but those stats will give heart to a few, surely.
bemused – I think my loyalty has been heartier than yours. You seem to think its OK for a thwarted politician to destabilise and disembowel his Party. I don’t. I won’t be voting for Rudd because I don’t live in the electorate and fortunately I don’t live in a marginal but one of my kids does and her phone call today, after lunch with her friends, was a bit distressing. 8 of them all voted Labor for JG (in a marginal) but won’t if she is rolled because ‘how dare they always ask the women to get them out of a tight spot and then leave her in the lurch’. All women, with kids in their early 20s, who could have some influence on those kids. Lots of lost votes from females, I reckon.
It’s got nothing to do with loyalty if we abstain or vote informally – it might just tell Labor that their supporters would like the Party to concentrate on being a good political/policy outfit and not a divided rabble with too many voices outside Caucus.
by BH on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
2007 was five years ago and a lot has chanced since then. Rudd has burned too many bridges and not enough time as past for them to be rebuilt.
Rudd should have put his head down and got on with his job rather than briefing the media and allowing this debate to have continued.
Okay I can understand him not liking Julia Gillard but in every workplace people don’t always get what they want, they either accept it or resign.
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
don @ 5789
Thanks for your support.
If you read the agreement I think you will remove one point of disagreement.
I do expect to find disagreement here and welcome it as a means of better informing myself. That agreement is a case in point. Until someone here posted a link to it and I actually read it, I believed as you do.
I am always open to change my mind when presented with evidence.
And I value your posts and those of many others here.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
William posted that mps are feeding info to journos which is where the talk is coming from. With so much info being posted it goes without saying that there is unrest and dissatisfaction and moves afoot.
Kelly response is more along the lines he supports the pm (as decided by the labor caucus).
If labor decide to change from Gillard to Rudd it is part of the party process and every mp would then be expected to get behind the new leader and their policies.
Much as has happened in the past with never ever promises and changes of opposition leaders.
by castle on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
bemused,
You also said Rudd wasn’t plotting.
You are bullshitter par excellence.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:26 pm
i was thinking i imagined this but i did not.
by my say on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:27 pm
I don’t agree with Mike Carelton about JG’s repeated errors. There have been errors, yes, but when simply carrying polling numbers is blown out of all proportion in the media, there is an issue.
That issue is with the media beating up crap about crap all. JG’s supposed errors would barely get a mention in a normal media world.
But what we have is a media bent on destroying an NBN and vested interests bent on destroying a govt who wants them to pay more for one time resources when they are making super profits. When said Big Mining are prepared to buy media outlets, and media personalities to push their messages and manipulate democratic process then Houston, we have a problem.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:27 pm
I think the PM biggest mistake has not just being up front, her performance in the 4 corners program was poor considering if she truely believed the leadership change was needed then she should have just backed her judgement.
I hope her advisers are more brave in future or are they just employed for having a uni degree without any real experience
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:30 pm
SK
You are free to vote however you please. It is just that IF you choose to do so you can no longer whole heartedly call yourself an ALP loyalist. The implication in all your posting here is that you are basically an ALP stalwart generally in support of the groups who preferred Gillard to Rudd. However if you ALP committment is so tenuopus then Bemused is right. You are a Gillard supporter NOT and ALP supporter.
By the way there is nothing wrong in that position, but I wish people were honest about it. There are lots of lefty ALPers who could go Green under the right circumstances. This is their right. Fortunately most of the green tinged here who post a pretty honest about this eg Deb, JV, probably TP (and myself also although I try to suppress my green leanings). However there are lots of other here whom I had assumed were labor loyalists of the right or heavily unionized left who really liked Gillard but were still solid ALPers. I am now beginning to think that many were in fact swinging voters not ALP loyalists.
Possibly, just possibly some of the Gillardistas are Lib trolls deliberately encouraging the Gillard/ Rudd wars here. If so I am mortified for having been sucked in.
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:30 pm
SK @ 5802
You seem to either not understand or wish to ignore the voting system.
Your vote, through preferences, will end up with one of the majors or be informal.
Voting informal is just a cop out. It says you are unable to identify, if not the best, then at least the least bad. Is that really the case with you?
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:31 pm
going to be very quiet here if Rudd takes over and wins. initially. there will a lot screaming and further character assassination and when it looks like he will comfortably people will say it was because of gillard. in some… in no way will Rudd be allowed to appear anything more than Satan. and of course it is patently obvious Rudd would have a good chance of winning, gillard. a remote chance at best.
by Thomas Paine on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:31 pm
So, the answer is to roll over and give power to the weakest and most incompetent opposition in living memory? In this two horse race, which one are you going to cheer on?
by It’s Time on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:33 pm
It’s gonna be very funny if I end up being one of the few people here to vote Labor next election. What are you people thinking??
Dr J
Gillard is actually $3.00 on Betfair ATM. Betfair is always very volatile though.
by Diogenes on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:33 pm
I think Rudd’s popular because they don’t want Coalition to win, so people think that Labor is going to loose if they keep Gillard (If only people stop reading/watching news hacks).
That’s the only reason why Rudd is popular even after being ousted.
by zoidlord on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:33 pm
bemused@5815:
The piece of paper is not worth the paper it is written on if the Indies say that it was dependent on JG remaining PM.
Which I am given to believe is the case. My understanding is that if JG is replaced, the whole thing falls over, no matter what is written on the agreement.
Do you know different?
by don on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Rudd has proven that his is unable to man up to Tone, the P.M has on many occasions hit him back over his head.
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:33 pm
victoria,
I stopped following him on twitter after that. It was my small, absolutely makes no difference, act of defiance to his appearance.
Julia needs to stay PM. Labor made their choice, they need to stick with it now. Changing Prime Ministers, again, in the space of less than two years, would give the Opposition material for eternity.
Not to mention that Labor turned to Julia, before her time, before she was ready, to win the election. She did, barely. She deserves their loyalty and a chance to turn it around.
Which they still can if they got their act together.
I just want Labor to get behind the PM, stick together and get a bloody backbone.
by vitalise on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:34 pm
I am someone who rarely posts on PB anymore because I find that the site is really morphing into just another MSM echo box. Like the current governments efforts to get their message out, every worthwhile discussion on policy and real politics is very quickly smothered by highly repetitious and divisive spats that do nothing to deepen understanding or add new insight. I find this disturbing.
I have no doubt that at times PB has influenced the political scene with its intelligent, witty and honest critiques that cut through the media miasma. I did wonder, in my early time on PB, how long such a popular site would be tolerated. I hope that what I am seeing is not some sort of campaign to neutralise its value.
Many have posted, including me that the hysterical attacks on this government will increase in intensity and viscousness until all the legislation is locked in and the compensation starts to flow. It wont stop after but the arguments will lose all bite.
The vested interests and opposition know this. It is instructive to me that it seems the personal attacks on the PM and the stirring of the leadership pot are all they have left in the arsenal. If it comes to nothing then they have been sorely whipped. The long game strategy is actually working. Gus is right. Full steam ahead and damn the torpedoes!
And on the policy note -Gonski is released on Monday. Another area ripe for reform. The courage of this government to take on the hard decisions has left me full of admiration. I hope that they will not get spooked now when there is so much work still to be done.
by Gweneth on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:34 pm
William @ 5811
I believe it
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:35 pm
dtt,
It is beholden on Members of the Party (which Bemused claims to be) to support the Party and the Leadership.
Bemused’s constant denigration of Gillard and pumping the tyres of Rudd in the Leadership stakes is evidence of disloyalty and self indulgence. He is just provideing a mouth piece for his mentor and controller Alan Griffen.
His criticism of others for proposing to walk away from the Party should his preferred solution be achieved is hypocritical and symptomatic of a warped and treacherous definition of layalty.
by Greensborough Growler on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Gweneth
Great to hear from you. Well said
by victoria on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:36 pm
My Say Frank came back briefly yesterday and within two posts he called William a F***ing C**t.
Sorry but if this were any other blog and William not as tolerant as he is this would deserve a life ban.
No place for that behaviour anywhere in cyberspace
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Thank you, My Say, for going to the effort of unearthing the comment and demonstrating that a desire for more “right-wing commenters” was not part of its context. As it happens, I would like more conservatives here, but if that was all my problem was I’d have kept my peace. I realise this site is always going to be a site of the left so far as the comments are concerned, and I’m quite happy for it to have that niche.
by William Bowe on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Daretotread,
Your assumption that I am a Gillard supporter is not correct and you can go back over old posts to confirm my statement to the effect that I supported Rudd as PM.
What I cannot abide is a party, that cannot show loyalty to its leader for at least a full term. You are asking me, as a party loyalist, to hang in and be loyal, when they cannot practice the same?
Right now. I back ALP 100 percent because I believe the speculation to be a media generated attempt at regime-change.
BUT if I was to find that behind the scenes they party is actively pursuing and planning for another Mid-term Mutiny then they will lose my vote forever.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:38 pm
TP this is called wanking. The MSM do it, too.
Lawns to do. Squabble on, children …
by muttleymcgee on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Was it a journo who tweeted that if Labor stopped its shenanigans and just talked up their positives then the media would have time to take a good look at what Abbott is doing? There’s a lot of truth in that.
The MSM is having far too much fun to bother checking Tony out too much altho it remains to be seen if they would do anything differently if Labor settled down.
by BH on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:38 pm
BH @ 5783
Oh? You don’t sign the pledge to vote and work for ALP candidates in NSW?
I may disagree within the ALP on policy issues or issues of leadership, but when it comes to an election there is no question about which party I will work my guts out for and vote for. Whoever the leader is.
I have always believed that is the Labor way.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Lyne Lady
And what do you think his saying that would mean?
They are very comfortable with Labor polling exactly as it is at the moment perhaps?
by MTBW on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:41 pm
At the end of the day you have to either vote informal or preference one of the major parties over the other. So, will you preference the local coal candidate over the Labor candidate or will you abrogate your responsibility and vote informal?
by It’s Time on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:41 pm
5783
5813
Note to self: Must double check referenced post numbers before posting.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:42 pm
GG
The Rudd swing was in fact about 2% less than in the surrounding seats. Not a dramatic difference but still enough to have saved Brisbane, Longman and Bonner. Also Herbert where there was a Rudd Mooney factor and possibly Flynn.
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:42 pm
BH I have not read it but makes sense for as long as the government is distracting the media with the easy silly game playing then it makes for a more interesting story than Tone
by mexicanbeemer on Feb 18, 2012 at 2:44 pm