Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Couldn’t be bothered tallying up a non-linked tally.
But well done, DL
Been meaning to say I agree wholeheartedly with your posts.
sorry for not saying earlier, kept getting distracted with mindless, pretend-ALP voters.
So, DTT
Your big wish list of Rudd enthusiasts (esp given his fantabulous support in Qld) is a sum total of 3 – of 14 – in his home state?
Well, there you go.
Enjoy your fantasy.
by kezza2 on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Hi Puff, the Magic Dragon re 6169
Good luck with that
I’ll go KR+1 to mid 2010, JG+1 currently, just to start.
F
by Fil R on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Aguirre:
So during the Howard vs. Peacock leadership struggles in the 80s or the Howard vs. Costello pseudo battle of the 90s you (and the others here) would have argued for no discussion of the leadership issue so as to enable focus on policy issues?
It is pretty clear those ‘bored’ with the leadership discussion are basically just ‘panicked’ by it rather than bored by it, and would prefer to pretend it wasn’t there, rather than discuss it.
by Mod Lib on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:08 pm
I will trust that list of names, if I actually saw some references to the claims. Because it reads a bit like a wishlist and I cannot find any evidence of those people taking any other position than the generic “Gillard has the party’s full support”
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Smithe at 6185
Either that, or it’s a complete fabrication from the fevered imagination of said News Ltd hack.
You lot decide.
My vote is for fevered imagination.
by Brian Mc on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Disagree. Broad access to air travel is here to stay. Sydney Airport is getting close to ultimate capacity so after that rationing of some sort will have to occur – will regionals be squeezed out or new entrants kept out? Communications are key to the modern world and airports are part of that like fast broadband. A stagnant airport will act as a brake on economic growth in Sydney and hence NSW. Melbourne and Brisbane will be there to fill the void.
Agree, and Labor has most to lose. It could be a tipping point issue in Grayndler and Sydney that could send them to the Greens. The Libs are less interested in the issue because it is not their electoral backyard.
It might not be an issue if potential flight paths had been protected but they had not. Recent reports have been that the preferred site might be further west than Badg. Creek at Luddenham or Wallacia. If so, protect the flight paths first .
It is probably a good location. Again, if it is identified early and residential development minimised under the flight path all well and good.
The cost of the train would be the same as the airport itself – anywhere outside the Sydney Basin is really not a realistic alternative. Caltex might close the Kurnell Oil refinery – a full circle perhaps to the site identified in 1946!!
by blackburnpseph on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Danny
I have never said Qld ALP is behind Rudd – it is not really. However you seem to know your factions a bit so you will appreciate that there are lots of AWU in Qld who will not support Rudd. Emerson ALSO had a relationship with Gillard so it would be odd if he did not support her (William this is public knowledge not scuttlebutt – he discussed drinking her contact lenses one night)
I admit to being slightly surprised by Neumann as I thought they were friends. (but my knowledge is limited).
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:10 pm
which is stronger than “the PM has the party’s full support”…
by Scarpat on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Ok – let’s discuss REAL politics (according to Bilbo’s definition). Have you noticed how much weight Turnball has lost recently? And how haggard Abbott is looking? And have you heard all those rumours about Abbott and his home life? And what about those botox injections?
Sheesh!
by Oscar on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:11 pm
From the ‘pro-Gillard’ part of the list on the previous page:
Well this is just shocking!
by rishane on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:12 pm
According to Mega in today the OZ. Gillard advised Rudd to either abandon ETS or to call a DD. Well, you know the history. Rudd chickened out and fuacked it up completely.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/rudd-and-gillard-do-not-even-pretend-to-hold-to-higher-principle/story-e6frg7ex-1226274169568
by The Finnigans on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:13 pm
We know that we are in the targetted and self-inflicted destabilisation phase. A reasonable question is this: What would threshold would need to be crossed to cause a challenge or a spill?
Here are some scenarios:
(1) the polling stays more or less the same, the destabilisation stays more or less the same, there is a gradual drift, there is a challenge. It fails. Mr Rudd goes to the backbench. The internal attrition continues. There is a second challenge. Vale Ms Gillard. Hello bliss.
(2) There is a Sarajevo moment. Someone fires off a pistol and it’s on.
(3) The polling improves, the destabilisation loses credibility. Mr Rudd’s ego licks its wounds and binds its time until after the next election.
Not sure if there are other main scenarios…
by Boerwar on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Turnbull is doing exactly what he has to do, be professional and competent, stay local to Abbott and the party and not undermine its positions (even when he disagrees with them) and wait…
by Mod Lib on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Surely, surely, the ALP wouldnt be that stupid to depose TWO sitting PMs in their first terms??
Against an opposition with a mad leader, no economic sense and no policies? This far out from an election? With a rabid MSN that will pull down ANY leader?
Surely not.
Heck I may even, for the first ever, not vote Labor.
by Andrew on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:14 pm
You didn’t say when William. But if you mean right now I disagree. It would more than likely mean an immediate election and loss of government. I think you are underestimating the common sense and the resolve of the people running the ALP if you think they would be that stupid.
A spill might make sense further down the track but not now.
by Darn on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:14 pm
Brian Mc – Doc took a lot of useful people with him. Menzies burned anything that moved.
by CTar1 on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Not angry.
Comment on my numbers post, if that’s possible.
But obviously you can’t come up with a logical argument.
I’d also like to hear your argument for your continual put-down of my say.
Anyway, back to basics
You don’t even know the numbers involved.
Yet, you sit there pontificating on other’s opinions – who take the time to come up with evidence – while your only evidence is . . . nothing.
I think you need to take Politics Patience 101 before you continue belittling members of your party.
You give the rest of us a bad name.
by kezza2 on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Duckie,
The bongs are not in the PB Lounge, the fantasy place is out the back just beyond the swimming pool and spa.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:16 pm
bbs
You do sound as if you know what you are talking about. Except for your first point. We can fly or we can cook in the broadest possible sense.
by Boerwar on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Like a frustrated politician.
by The Finnigans on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Danny Lewis has highlighted part of the problem brilliantly – “of the ones you listed from SA, the Right will do as they are told by Farrell”.
Too many noggins, who do what they are told by the likes of Farrell, Arbib and Shorten, who, having promoted Ms Gillard beyond the level of her competency, stubbornly refuse to rectify their mistake.
by Fargo61 on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Used Google to jump the paywall to have a look at that list. I’d say that its pretty, well, optimistic for Rudd.
Anyhow, my local member was listed as a Rudd supporter. Have emailed very politely and asked her to consider the why of it (beyond “he wus wobbed” and ” he deserves it back”) if it ever comes to a vote in caucus.
by imacca on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:18 pm
ML,
I agree with that. Turnbull’s chance will come if Labor puts the current leadership speculation behind it then I think that the Liberals would make a change closer to the election.
by Scarpat on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Puff @ 6169
Very clever post!
by MTBW on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Well of course not. That’s to conflate shit with sugar. Because the differences between Gillard and Abbott are profound. He is a creep and a dangerous fool. Besides, who said the #Libspill specualtion is baseless? He only got the job by one vote over Turnbull. And Turnbull didn’t (I’m sure) decide to return to politics just so he could continue in the humble role as the Member for Wentworth.
by Cuppa on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:19 pm
Ozymandias @ 6141
Of course she can vote however she likes and the forces of darkness will welcome her vote.
But she should cut the crap about being a loyal ALP supporter as such people don’t vote for other parties. They support the policies and philosophy of the party no matter who the leader may happen to be.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:19 pm
And just “accidentally” completely failing to pull the rug out from under the NBN like he was supposed to?
Yes, very “loyal” (I presume that’s what you meant?).
by Oscar on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:19 pm
BW, have you checked with our Account Dept?
They are over the Moon with #Ruddstoration. It is bringing in royalties like the tsunami at Fukushima.
Tahiti tomorrow? or Hvar of Croatia.
by The Finnigans on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:19 pm
Danny
Thanks for that information regarding the SA people. Seems lie the journos may have over egged it a bit. I assume you are fairly sure of your two SA people – I assume they are left??????
I do not expect Mark Bultler or ANY of the left associated with United Voice to shift to Rudd in a hurry. They are more likely to shift to Shorten.
However in the Australian this morning a Rudd Combet ticket was suggested. Serious question. Would that tempt your SA friends?
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:19 pm
ModLib:
“No discussion”. I like that. All or nothing, is it?
I recall the Costello-Howard one. It was boring. It was incredibly boring. Costello was out there in the media talking it up and it was boring. It got interesting when Downer talked to Howard and said the party wanted him to step down. But he didn’t and that was the end of that.
If we had to listen to a year and a half of rumours about Costello “counting the numbers” before he even started to moan publicly, it would have been much much worse.
At any rate, I was far angrier about Coalition policy issues than I ever was about which idiot took the ‘credit’ for it. So yes to your question.
I’ve already stated my opinion. If it happens it happens. While it’s not happening… well, there are a lot of other things to talk about.
I know you find that incredible. But I can’t help it if gossip fascinates you.
by Aguirre on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Well, given some of the utter tosh he has been coming out with about the NBN i’m not too sure about the competent part.
by imacca on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:20 pm
interesting to see an actual list of supporters. who knows how correct it is
if any of the so called Rudd supporters are stupid enough to leak/proclaim support for him, perhaps the party deserves everything it gets
by Andrew on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Fargo,
What a load of codswallop! BISONS anyone?
Or is it that PM Gillard dresses neither to the left nor right
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Without a doubt…look at all the legislation she has failed to get through Parliament while leading a minority Government.
by Scarpat on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Andrew, whose list is it?
by Gary on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Speculation about who will and will not be endorsed as the candidate for west whocares is gossip. Speculation about an impending change of Prime Minister and likely election and change of government would seem pretty appropriate discussion for a political blog
by Mod Lib on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Do you know what, Rudd should totally run for the leadership with Gillard as his deputy! He’d totally have the numbers then!
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Scarp, you call?
MP Rob Oakeshott says “this parliament is working and I’m proud of it”.” – 257 bills passed
by The Finnigans on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Must be SO draining reciting stupid slogans and being feted by arsewards media.
by Cuppa on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:24 pm
yes, even if it is just gossip…
by Scarpat on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Only about 1 in 8 of those predicted to subscribe in 2011 actually did so…not going as swimmingly as you appear to imply.
by Mod Lib on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Puuuuffyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy, you call?
http://afrankview.net/2012/02/australias-great-bisons-beautiful-inspiring-set-of-numbers/
by The Finnigans on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:25 pm
U R not helping Carey!
by Mod Lib on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Abbott and his COS Pata Credline must have been working hard together.
by The Finnigans on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm
I’d say its pretty obvious that the OO has released that list to try and bring on an ALP leadership ballot / change? asap. Regardless of how factually accurate the list is it creates a situation where it will be fodder for discussion and maybe they consider they have “outed” a few people?
I think that the MSM REALLY want Gillard to call a spill to “clear the air”. Hopefully she doesn’t. That put it all back on Rudd to put up or shut up.
Actually, can anyone stand up in caucus and call for a vote to spill the leadership??
by imacca on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Finns,
I did indeed (the bill for playing straight man is in the post)…
by Scarpat on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Ian you seem to see the PM as the Boudicca of Australian Politics.
Personally, I reckon she and her Government are more like the Romans who smashed the Boudiccan revolt than the Boudiccan celts: They’re excellent administrators and first class at engineering outcomes. They know how to run Government and have shown remarkable tenacity and discipline in achieving their objectives. They’re ferocious and take no prisoners in a fight and demonstrate this every day in QT when parliament is sitting. In short, they’re a formidable professional fighting force.
It’s the Coalition that most resembles the Boudiccan rebels to my mind. They’re a disjointed rabble united only in a desire to get rid of the enemy. They have no plan for what to do afterwards, should they succeed. They fight alright, but mostly amongst themselves and couldn’t engineer an outcome if their lives depended on it. They make a lot of noise but don’t know the meaning of the word ‘discipline.’
The Government will make mincemeat of them.
If you want a strong female leader from history who somewhat resembles what our PM has achieved, try Joan of Arc or maybe Hapshetsut (one of the greatest pharos of Egypt – who happened to be a woman). Both of them fair dinkum and successful heroes.
by smithe on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Re: SA Labor MPs
With so many of their seats having gone from marginal to safe Labor, it would be hard to convince them to risk their jobs by supporting an eastern state coup. Doesn’t matter though. There are only 10 votes available in SA.
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Scarpat
Must come from the DT
And we all know how reliability of Paul Whittacker.
by kezza2 on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:27 pm
DTT
the list in the Australian was concocted by Massolla and Shanahan sitting with Tony Brampton over a few beers.
A couple in the “Rudd camp” have come out and said its crap – Vamvakinou and Steve Gibbons today (I’ll dig out Gibbon’s tweet and post here).
Finally, Greg Combet (Gillard) and Melissa Parkes (Rudd) must have some interesting pillow talk.
by sprocket_ on Feb 18, 2012 at 6:27 pm