Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Also…
Half the members of cabinet who say they are backing Gillard will switch the moment a spill is called.
They have to say they support her…for now.
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Fargo – your right about JWH, he passed the WorkChoices bills very competently
by sprocket_ on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:02 pm
I think TP may be right (at least I think it’s what he is trying to say) that the boasting about numbers is not so much because they’ve got the numbers, but more to intimidate Gillard into resigning.
If Gillard did resign without a challenge, all bets are off!
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Fargo61.
Just be careful there sonny; that hole of which you are teetering on the edge is not only a $70billion black one, it is also full of excrement.
I would throw you a rope, but I am busy sipping my martini.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:05 pm
GS
and the other half have indicated they will return to the backbench if ever KRudd becomes PM again
by sprocket_ on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Carey…
All it does is damage her already terminal leadership of the ALP.
The fact that all next week the papers will be counting numbers and determining how many Labor MPs have lost confidence in her is the final nail in the coffin I think.
And as you say this may flush out the alternative to KR if they can get Ms Gillard to resign.
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:06 pm
And if the 1.4 Billion Chinese all jumped up and down at the one time, the Earth would fall off its axis.
by smithe on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Puff: we can have a love-in while everyone else convinces themselves there is actually a leadership spill on
by Danny Lewis on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Kezza
Not sure what you are so angry about
Out for the night
See ya
by daretotread on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:07 pm
sprocket I suspect most people will keep their jobs….
Some will be promoted…Greg Combet….and some will be demoted…Wayne Swan when Rudd returns.
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Puffy,
I never carried a handbag until I had children. Now I have huge sacks with all their junk in it and a tiny wallet.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Mark, if what has got you angry is that I think Julia Gillard’s belief system is “beneath ridiculous” then you can rest assured, because such a thought has never entered my mind. What I used those words in relation to was Gillard’s opposition to same-sex marriage, purely as a political proposition. I believe the difficulty is that you believe any position Gillard takes is ipso facto part of her “belief system”. But this is not true of Gillard or any other politician.
by William Bowe on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:09 pm
It’s already damaged beyond repair.
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:09 pm
In that case it’s Smith or Rudd?
Meanwhile Abbott is going unscrutinised because of Labor knifing itself to death.
by Gary Sparrow on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Carey
it’s a viable scenario, but not till late 2012/early 2013. Everything is ticking smoothly behind the scenes. Still more to go, and another year of delivery of the platform is needed.
However the possibility of JG standing down, taking one for the team, she will strongly consider it. But the abdication won’t be in favor of KRudd.
by sprocket_ on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Ah, the old “you’re angry” argument comes to the fore when you don;t have anything to back up your statements.
which is what I have been asking you for.
You know, reliable evidence.
Have a good night.
by kezza2 on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:11 pm
When this latest spill rumpur fails to eventuate (like all the others before it) will the Libs and MSM hacks have a temper tantrum and threaten to go on a hunger strike or hold their breath until the PM goes?
You know it’s the logical next step when all else has failed.
by smithe on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Gweneth,
In regards to the funding issue, do you think it will additional resources for disadvantaged students? Because sometimes equal isn’t enough for struggling students.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:12 pm
GS
your suspicions are misplaced on this occaision
by sprocket_ on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Gweneth @ 6272
I will vote for the ALP no matter who the leader is. The people who I bag are those who say if the leader isn’t their preferred person they will stamp their feet, throw a tantrum and vote against the ALP. I have zero tolerance for that in a purported ALP supporter.
And yes, like most ALP members, I have a preference for who should lead and I am prepared to express it in the context of any leadership contest.
So I don’t really get the point you are trying to make.
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:14 pm
I’d think that being unable to influence the composition of any bills going through a hung parliament is a sign of rank incompetence in an Opposition.
I think the idea that was floated up thread that if Rudd loses a challenge, but gets enough votes to have seemed credible then Gillard is finished is a little far fetched.
A loss is a loss. The question will have been put and resolved. Even with all the media support Rudd will still have failed.
However, it may serve to put the focus on just how narrow was Tony Abbott’s win and so how fragile his grasp is on the LOTO position.
All Abbott has going for him is the Lib TPP (for now, 18mths from an election) and a soft media. If the Rudd/Gillard issue is resolved, even for a time, and then surplus Budget, followed up by Carbon Price and MRRT coming in, Tony may find himself losing his soft media scrutiny advantage. MSM want leadership woes to play on, and if the ALP’s get resolved, the Libs will be the next ones to get looked at.
by imacca on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Hopefully Smith but, alas, I feel it would be hard to deny Rudd the job in such a scenario
That is the other sad reality. With Labor caught in this crap, Abbott and the Coalition basically avoid criticism and thus don’t need to prepare or form decent policies.
But, it’s all self-inflicted.
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Still thinks he’s God.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:17 pm
I think it is amusing that Masolla dumps all the NSW Catholic Right into Rudd’s camp.
He probably does know his history, and the DLP fiasco kept the progressive forces out of government federally for a generation. Could be just wishfull thinking from within the NewsLtd bunker.
by sprocket_ on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:17 pm
That would be appropriate, but too much t hope for.
by imacca on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:18 pm
ha ha ha, in your dream.
She is so tough, she will never resign.
And she will never cry, like Rudd after he was tossed, cry like a baby, a baby.
by The Finnigans on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Have just come in
I only hope Poll Bludgers who are ALP members get their Branches to write to Head Office and inform them what they think about the leadership and how it is ripping the party apart and Tony Abbott will be Australia’s prime minister by default . I know I and my family would not be happy if Julia Gillard is removed from the Prime ministership
by mari on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:23 pm
there has been commentary that KRudd will do a PJK – challenge, lose – but with around 30-40% – go to the back bench and prevail in 6 months time. In PJK’s case, he was so critical to the government’s narrative that without him, they stumbled badly.
to channel Senator Lloyd Bentsen “Your no Paul Keating, Kevin”
by sprocket_ on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:23 pm
I assure you, if I shared the details of my dreams here, William would ban me!
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Oh my god, I am so over this Ruddstoration crap.
It’s clear that the MSM are just pulling stories out of their asses, and are in close collaboration with the Coalition.
“Anonymous sources” my ass. They could be bouncing stories off their cat and still call it ‘anonymous sources’ without being held to account. It’s not like the media doesn’t have a reputation for… oh, I don’t know, MAKING THINGS UP.
You’d think that up against such a dangerous opponent the ALP would close ranks and hold firm and build up a progressive legacy to present to the electorate in next year’s election.
All they’ve got against us is hot air and a lazy media as their allies. Is this enough to destroy us? Were those 11 years in opposition against that disgusting divisive neo-con Howard for nothing? Do we want more against someone that would be enough to make even American tea partiers find horrendous?
As Labor members and supporters, in order to smash this despicable opposition once and for all, we need to defeat Abbott in an election. We’re not ready now, but we will be next year. But the longer we bitch about Gillard v. Rudd, the less likely that would be.
The message must be unanimous. There is no challenge. There is no division. Julia Gillard is playing the long game to which we will all be better off in the long term. The media and Coalition are playing the short game in which everyone except them will lose.
To those that think there’s no hope, get real. You think the majority of Australia would turn its back on the best internet in the world, the best developed economy in the world, and the best progressive legacy in the world in favour of a man who wants do do nothing but destroy everything built between 2007-2012 and punish everyone who voted them out? Because polls remain exactly the same way as they do now forever, right? You don’t think that people won’t get sick of the media constantly worshipping the man who thought the Costa Concordia was hilarious, that Bernie Banton was a liar cashing in on his illness, that people who lose their jobs under workchoices should just get another job, right?
Close ranks and hold firm, and we will win.
by Von Kirsdarke on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Carey,
If they are that good… spill.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Puff-
Is your martini shaken or stirred?
I am well aware of the Lib black hole, and suspect it is a lot more than $70B, and still rising.
I have a solution to avoid it – dump the useless, backstabbing, snarly, Gillard – now.
The alternative to this is the election of Mr Abbott (shudder) with the ALP reduced to at best 54 seats and a 50-50 chance of something much worse, including only having one senator elected in two states.
Many here have said that they will not ‘vote for Rudd’ – but I (for the first time) will not ‘vote for Gillard’. This is a common position in QLD, and apparently elsewhere also.
Ms 32% will not cut it.
by Fargo61 on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:26 pm
mari @ 6321
Are you an ALP member?
by bemused on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:26 pm
mari,
Check what is trending in first place on twitter.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:26 pm
If they go on an hunger strike I will toss them some of those plastic-hamburger dog-toys.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Interesting theory, but I doubt she’d be intimidated by that with all the other crap she’s already put up with.
by rishane on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:27 pm
All you anti-Gillard people check out what is trending in first place on twitter.
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:28 pm
This is the person whom while having two post graduate degrees, regularly puts my say down for not making sense!
Yet it is beyond him to understand the point you are trying to make.
And that is, that he accuses peeps of being disloyal while he is being disloyal himself.
It’s a simple concept but he doesn’t have the ability to self-reflect. At all.
It is no wonder that from the 1990s, Science Departments introduced a semester of Philosophy into Science degrees. Specifically so that science graduates understood ethics, – but in my experience, most science undergrads chose Logic (because of its mathematical nature) and unwittingly came to understand the branch of LOGIC.
bemused obviously graduated before 1990 in Melbourne!
He thinks it’s okay to belittle peeps who don’t agree with them, especially women who don’t agree with him.
Move on, buddy, the times have changed.
NB: Gillard has never denigrated Rudd. Start counting the ways he has denigrated her.
by kezza2 on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:30 pm
William,
I think Mark’s is angry because your new hands-on approach to criticising popular commenters and trying to bring in more “conservatives” (thanks a lot) is pissing off good people such as Oscar, George and Mark himself.
by Cuppa on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Finns
Our IR department is rooting for Mr Abbott. They can’t wait to stick it to the deserving without all the unfair dismissal red tape that is restricting our productivity.
VOTE 1 ABBOTT FOR A FAIRER AUSTRALIA
by Boerwar on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:31 pm
The reason the atmosphere on Poll bludger has changed is that the more reality is at odds with how the Bludgers wish it to be, the harder they have to work to keep reality out of this blog. This obviously brings them into conflict with William, who has more of an academic interest in politics than an emotional/personal identity one, and is hence quite a fan of having his blog firmly tethered in the real world.
The Bludgers’ efforts to keep reality out of their lives includes trying to keep people who post about reality off of this blog. They do this with abuse and other tactics designed to make people feel unwelcome. When William criticises these tactics they throw childish temper tantrums and try and use emotional blackmail to make him feel bad about trying to enforce standards on his own blog.
It is not pretty, and it does them no credit. They would do well to reflect on their own life and the position they put party politics in within it. In my experience politicians are not worth such emotional investment, and the system is essentially rigged so that both parties take it in turns to govern, so fretting about the “disaster” of the other side taking over is essentially silly.
Politics can be both interesting and entertaining, but it is not worth getting upset over. You should all take a leaf out of my book and just sit back and enjoy the spectacle.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Forrest Gump?
by William Bowe on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:33 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Oh, her already terminal leadership, huh?
Just imagine the state this character’s leadership would be in if he had to contend 24/7 with a universally-hostile media… as opposed to one unscripted question from one journo…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUdPabnXUNA
by Cuppa on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:33 pm
LSL
“Cognitive dissonance” is the phrase you are looking for.
by Diogenes on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:34 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:34 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Just thought that deserved a re-paste.
by William Bowe on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Leadership spills are like a box of chocolates…
by Carey Moore on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:36 pm
by Space Kidette on Feb 18, 2012 at 7:37 pm