Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.
A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Of course, of course.
Rudd will never forgive and accept to be rolled by a childless Gen Xer like Julia Gillard. I can see clearly now.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/dont-be-rattled-by-the-baby-guilt-trip-20100214-nzb9.html#ixzz1mli5Kqgg
by The Finnigans on Feb 19, 2012 at 7:49 am
I’m with Finns. I wont go all TP-Evan on the ALP. I think they are making another mistake if they get rid of PM Gillard.
But Abbott must not ever be allowed to be in the Lodge.
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 7:51 am
Seems that the shallow fools in the press gallery are being manipulated by both Rudd and Abbott. The stupidity on display is beyond a joke.
Rudd is playing silly buggers with Fairfax, in particular Hartcher and Grattan, both of whom were previously on his government’s BF drip (while excluding the viciously antagonistic News Ltd). Rudd declares repeatedly that he is doing nothing to destabilise the government, but secretly tells Hartcher and Grattan the opposite. A few frightened backbenchers feed the rumours. The press gallery runs around like headless chooks in a “destabilisation” frenzy.
What is Rudd’s motivation? Buggered if I know. He might just be having fun. He is a bit weird after all. It would not matter if the press gallery were not so gullible.
Gillard has no BFs in the press gallery, which appears to be a deliberate strategy, preferring to concentrate on delivering policy, programs, legislation, and good government rather than indulging in cheap tabloid gossip and manic psychobabble. This occasionally backfires, because they all hate her for not talking to them, but she bravely moves on. When the going gets tough, women play the longer game.
Abbott and his many backroom enablers are playing “destabilistation” with the press gallery too. Here’s a theory: some Liberal mole in the APS (remember Godwin Gretch?) with access to video outtakes posts Rudd swearing on youtube and the press gallery jumps all over it in a weekend frenzy, yelling that the “Gillard camp” is now hitting back at the “Rudd camp” with dirty tricks. Oh really, how do they know that? There was a risk that the destabilisation game was losing steam as Gillard ministers broke cover to support the PM. Game on again. Too easy.
Perhaps one of those idiots in the press gallery could investigate and name the source of the youtube video, or at the very least think of a few possibilities other than the bleeding obvious. Too hard.
by susan winstanley on Feb 19, 2012 at 7:54 am
Totally agree with Finns.
by kevjohnno on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:01 am
Morning All
Half heard the Rudd interview replayed on News Radio – he went so close to doing the right thing but by not going the extra yard probably made things worse. Talked about how he enjoys being Foreign Minister but when asked if he will challenge says there is no “challenge as you call it” but didn’t close the door on wanting to be Prime Minister again.
You could play it either way
1 – he is genuine and although he wants to be PM again is happy being FM and will continue in that role
2 – he is trying to bring the challenge on by saying it isn’t
Either way, it can’t go on like it is – Julia needs to call it on and end it as soon as Kevin is back from OS. He either has enough numbers to do something or has to admit he doesn’t – and if the vote is going to be close Labor needs a third party, like Smith, to step up and end it all
Finally, when is the media on going to call Abbott out on the lie about the government being dysfunctional??? they have passed over 250 bills and are running the economy well – I bet there are countries the world over that would swap their situation for ours in a flash – it’s bloody annoying
p.s. everyone should take some time out today to remember the events of Darwin RIP to all those brave souls that passed
by womble on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:02 am
Andrew, Depends on the electorate – for instance if I lived in Darren Cheesman’s electorate I certainly would not give him my vote.
by janice2 on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:02 am
Well cheeseman will have very few friends, doubt he will be preselected.
So he does not have to worry about 0.3 pecen”’
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:06 am
my say,
Cheeseman is probably deluded enough to think that Rudd will improve his percentage. Whatever, Labor doesn’t need the lily-livered, disloyal and inward thinking people like him so they should deselect him forthwith.
by janice2 on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:12 am
Finn, 7095
Is that lined tweeted,
Gee i wish i new how to copy on this thing
I would like to
post it on HOOPPLA
For other ladies here its a great ladies site takea look
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:16 am
Yes agree , was it his seat on election night re ,,,,,,votes not cou ted may be it ws some one else
Rings a be
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:17 am
my say, you mean this?
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Rudd will never forgive and accept to be rolled by a childless Gen Xer like Julia Gillard. I can see clearly now. smh.com.au/opinion/politi…
by The Finnigans on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:21 am
Susan,
Great post.
I said ,lst night, any one can make a video like that they ar e al of the place,
But my way wiith words never seems to’hit the mark
Its all pounce on drama with the media
U only have to look at the hidden glee( trying to look sad)
When some thing happens in the world no matter what
It all about them
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:26 am
Mr Cheeseman is lucky he kept his seat at the last election, which may or may not have been the case under a Rudd leadership.
The Liberals must be rubbing their hands with glee at all the silly infighting.
by ltep on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:28 am
Thanks finns
So i can swim up the east coast to bicheno today,
And visit dolph sands, tru e its named after u.
And not worry about our julia
Kabuchi by the sea is a great place u woukd love it sit on the rocks,
Its a japanese resrurant i will thro w sushi
Google and look at pictures before u leave:-)
xx
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:30 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Oh goodie, there will a spill next week. Bring It On, Bring It ON.
by The Finnigans on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:35 am
My say, next time i visit Hobart. i will look you up and have sushi together. Is that a date?
by The Finnigans on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:37 am
oh dear, the feeling is running deep:
by The Finnigans on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:39 am
Yes
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:39 am
But i will bring mr dolphin i tell him all about u and often read out stuff
When he worked in sydney,,sydney chinna town one of his favourites
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:41 am
7067 risbane
That’s exactly my concern, risbane. The opposition to Gillard has been from the beginning – on fertile ground with the suddennness of the coup and the inadequacy of the explanations – and she has been under the microscope, especially over her public performances (as distinct from her parliamentary and administrative ones) ever since. And they have gone into overdrive in the last few months. Coincidence?
The media has, of course, been on a constant feed from Credlin-Loughnane, and through a combination of shill advocacy, limited resources and laziness, has greedily taken up the feeds.
Allied to this concern is that a spill will give legitimacy to the Credlin-Abbott strategy of ignoring the development of Liberal policy and credibility and basing the whole on an anti government nihilism. We got a glimpse of this with Credlin’s intervention in a parliamentary argument recently.
We shouldn’t be rewarding such behaviour. A spill now can’t achieve anything else. The response from Abbott and Credlin will surely be, “See. We told you they were hopeless and should be thrown out!”
It may be as LSL says that the coalition, as the ‘natural party of government’ don’t have to do anything because nobody expects anything else from them.
But it strikes me as a Fox-style destruction of our democratic institutions.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:46 am
Neither Cheeseman nor Gibbons contributions are welcome. STFU. Cant this be sorted out internally. Obviously not.
How can such an effective government (over 260 bills passed in a minority government, including major reforms) be so bad at their internal and media management?
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:50 am
Saw the Rudd interview over breakfast. Speers certainly tried to get him to blame the PMs office for the clip getting out.
Rudd still won’t say he doesn’t want to be PM, I don’t doubt for a second that he wants his old job back.
I don’t see a spill a a good thing. It will very likely weaken Gillard to the extent that she can’t survive. A change of leader makes an Abbott government almost certain, and makes it possible that the Libs will be in by year’s end. This would be downright disastrous for Australia, given that they have shown nothing to suggest that they even want to be a competent government.
by AJ Canberra on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:51 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Ha ha ha Shanananana on #Slynews has started to attack PM Rudd already, Datsun?
by The Finnigans on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:52 am
having watched the Rudd video, all I can say is that the Abbott-Riley stare video is worse. Much worse.
The worst moment for a pollie I can remember. Worse than Latham’s handshake, Hewson’s birthday cake, and Downer’s things that batter.
In a normal world, that 70 seconds of mad nodding would have been the end of a pollie. Abbott completely got away with it. There is no better proof that this is an OL that is looked after with kid gloves. Labor should not kid itself that any leader can combat such obvious MSM bias/special treatment
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:55 am
TP argues that Rudd is a more effective leader because he “won” a health debate against Abbott 2 years ago. Only on PB are that event, it’s interpretation and significance remembered. This is indeed a rarefied place.
For what it’s worth, I can’t see RO supporting a Leadership change. He has always said he is after a stable government and workable parliament. If Rudd is elected and the internal divisions continued, as they, would, he would consider himself free from his agreement and would bring on a fresh election.
Abbott in the Lodge by Christmas
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 19, 2012 at 8:58 am
So they finally get just about the lowliest backbencher to go public, plus a News Ltd. list of punters too scared to confirm they are actually on it, mix in some innuendo, more equivocation from Rudd, and say Gillard is finished.
They would say that, wouldn’t they?
Rudd doesn’t have the numbers, but this is portrayed as some kind of strength, not the fatal weakness that it is.
The new rule seems to be that if one backbencher wear his heart on his sleeve, and then the media beat it up, then no matter what your real support is, your goose is cooked. The thought of a challenge is enough to make it succeed. Interesting theory…
… but, no, not really.
You usually need to test the numbers. Rudd didn’t because he chickened out. Gillard’s no chicken.
Rudd is trying to bluff his way back into the leadership, but I have a feeling that Gillard is tougher than that. She’s going to want to see his cards. She won’t hand over the pot on a four flush from Rudd.
The media urgers at the side are telling us it’s all over, but the truth is in the numbers. Rudd is doing what Costello did to Howard: not enough backers, but too gutless to have that demonstrated.
Most of the complaints about Gillard this week have come from the media. In their eyes a failure to spin in the proper manner is a sign of poor character. In the comedy of manners that they regard as real politics, it’s all in the eyebrows. Volumes are written about the slight hesitation, or the tone of voice, the exact choice of phrase.
When the polls don’t say what you want them to say, you claim they did anyhow. By any means there has been a slight polling improvement for the government this year. Not much, a few points, but an improvement just the same. So the media say “Not enough”, as if they are the final arbiters of these matters.
It was the same with the jobs figures. They showed – against all predictions – a fall in unemployment. But the scripts had already been written, so these figures – 46,000 new jobs – were simply ignored, not reported, in favour of a few hundred jobs lost here, a thousand off-shored there.
Businesses whose business plans were constructed when the dollar was US$0.75, when Howard was in power, suddenly can’t make money from exports. Gillard’s fault.
This is an attempted coup by the media. They don’t want to get rid of Gillard. They want to get rid of the entire government, by simply making stuff up.
What do we know?
Cheeseman, the most marginal backbencher, has come out and said something. No-one else has offered to publicly support the usurper. Yet the media and their mates believe they can leverage this thin strand of support into the toppling of a Prime Minister and her government. They’re going for this week. If they succeed, maybe they can get a bonus extra loss of seats in Queensland, too.
The simple thing for Gillard to do is to do nothing, to show Rudd up for the one thing we know for sure: he doesn’t have the numbers.
All the rest is make-believe. Every day he doesn’t challenge is more humiliation for him. Every prediction of his imminent re-ascession to the throne that does not come about is another nail in his and the media’s coffin built from laminated bullshit and held together with straw.
I’m not suggesting that she shouldn’t get rid of the Happy Little Vegemiter, but she should do it on her terms, not his, on her timetable, not his.
The simple fact is that Gillard gets things done despite incredible resistance and whiteanting. Rudd is the one who caves in to pressure. He’s the one who trashes his own record on TV, just to make the pain go away. He’s the one who sulks, alone in his office while the government he’s supposed to lead founders, headless. He’s the panicker, not Gillard.
She should bide her time and do him slowly.
by Bushfire Bill on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:00 am
Andrew
I share you frustration. We should be mindful though that the toppling of Rudd and now the undermining of Gillard have little to do with policy. This is and always was about power and the division of the spoils of victory. Rudd can’t reverse the legislation that’s now in place. The greens won’t allow that. As most of the policy agenda has been delivered or is before parliament I see no change in direction. That is the only consolation I can find in all of this.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:00 am
Andrew
I share your frustration. We should be mindful though that the toppling of Rudd and now the undermining of Gillard have little to do with policy. This is and always was about power and the division of the spoils of victory. Rudd can’t reverse the legislation that’s now in place. The greens won’t allow that. As most of the policy agenda has been delivered or is before parliament I see no change in direction. That is the only consolation I can find in all of this.
by Tom Hawkins on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:00 am
OC
Why on earth would Rob Oakshott bring on an election? RO might (and I say might) switch to a rational liberal (eg Turnbull) in the hope of retaining his seat but there is no way he will bring on an early election.
by daretotread on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:02 am
I guess one good thing from a spill is that the Gillardists could take off the kid gloves re Rudd. It is often said that the public don’t know why Rudd was sacked. To keep him in parliament and in an attempt to retain unity no one has been willing to Explain why he had to go. If a spill is on we should finally hear the truth.
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:03 am
BB, you are without doubt the best blogger on this site. Your posts are insightful and so well written. And in this case, somewhat reassuring.
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:03 am
I dont want a spill
Either,
The pm just ignores
We got sick to death of costello the people i mean
I think rudds reached that point
With twitter and us here may be we reflect that..
Thats how i feel
by my say on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:05 am
DTT you don’t understand that for some people integrity is more important than a seat in parliament. Do not look for what you think is RO’s personal advantage ib his decision making. (also stop the crap about Turnbull – I explained why that could not happen last time you raised it and you agreed with my analysis)
by Oakeshott Country on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:06 am
OC you are onto something. The removal of Rudd lacked authenticity. The real reason was not given.
If it was about polls with Rudd at 52/48, Gillard should be removed forthwith at 45/55.
It seems Gillard didnt want to trash Rudd in her ascension to the throne, but that has come at a cost.
I hope BB is right and Gillard can survive this. I think its tough when the MSM are so completely gunning for her.
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:08 am
Tom H
While I acknowledge that Gillard has been EXCELLENT in getting legislation through the HoR, you must recognize that it is all RUDD’s program to start with. Even the ETS is HIS original with a few tweeks.
Rudd (or indeed another leader) would not change the legislation program). It was all started in 2007 and there is a clear electoral mandate. I feel sure however thar Rudd would prefer to wait until after July 1 to make any challenge, because by then the Carbon legislation will be operational and he personally will not have to deal with all the Juliar rubbish.
An early challenge to Gillard is NOT in Rudd’s interest. The people who gain MOST from an early challenge and instability are the middle candidates or clean skins. If Rudd is forced to challenge early and loses, he will retire to the back bench but Gillard is still weakened. One or two more stumbles and the third way candidates are set to come through the middle.
by daretotread on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:15 am
The video of kev is gold. It will increase his votes I think
by rummel on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:16 am
Classic KRudd –
by CTar1 on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:17 am
OC is spot on. The public has never warmed to Gillard because of the way she ascended the throne. At the time she should have clearly stated the real reasoning behind removing him. The “government had lost it’s way” was a major screw up that she’s still paying the price for.
She should do a one to one interview with a decent journo (Bongiorno?) and get it all out.
by trawler on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:18 am
OC
Yes I do understand that for Oakshott integrity is essential. This is why he will stick to his agreement with the ALP (not Gillard) unless something very unusual happens.
by daretotread on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:19 am
I dont agree that PM Gillard should tough it out.
They will use that against her to say that she is scared of Rudd and running away. She should tackle it headson.
by The Finnigans on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:19 am
Some news on a subject with almost as much fact free speculation as Ruddstoration.The legendary Lord Lucan .
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-17076512
by poroti on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:21 am
I second that.
by Gary on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:21 am
Except that he understands it to be with Gillard.
by Gary on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:22 am
The release of the video, if done at Ms Gillard’s behest, would be yet another example of Ms Gillard’s poor political judgement.
My first view is that it only makes sense if it has been done by the Coalition.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:23 am
Also I’ve no idea what the person who released that video of Rudd was thinking. Did they think it would destabilize Rudd’s campaign? It won’t. It legitimises the Rudd campaign as it proves someone in the Gillard camp is worried enough about it to go public.
What worries me about Gillard is that she has people who I imagine must work for her thought releasing this video was a good idea. It was not. She should get rid of whoever came up with that little gem.
The content of the video itself is hardly damning. PM loses his cool and swears – big deal. If anything it ups his credibility if he’s bagging a public servant (sorry to say).
As I said above, Gillard needs to communicate to the public about her reasonings for removing Rudd. If she tells the full story, the public may actually come on side. It’s not rocket science.
by trawler on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:24 am
Gary I’m not sure that the indies really think it HAS to be with Gillard per se. I just think they dont want to see the government self-destruct by removing her
by Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:24 am
Mr Gibbons has said that Mr Rudd is a psychopath with a giant ego. I must disagree with him there. My view is that he is probably borderline narcissist/sociopath. As for the giant ego, well, I mean to say. Anyone who sets out to destroy a prime minister, even if it means destroying a government, just so he can get the top job must have a bit of the old rampant ego.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:25 am
Ms Plibersek on Insiders just now. I reckon she would make a good prime minister.
by Boerwar on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:25 am
BW, no evidence it came from PMO, on the contrary:
by The Finnigans on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:25 am
I must say if it’s the case there has to be a change then this scenario sounds ok to me. A clean skin is not a bad idea. An early successful Rudd challenge is a bad idea.
by Gary on Feb 19, 2012 at 9:26 am